Two new polls this week from ReachTEL and Essential Research cause the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to tick 0.3% in favour of Labor on two-party preferred, which yields only one gain on the seat projection, that being in Queensland. The leadership ratings have been updated with the results from Morgan’s phone poll, a strikingly good (relatively speaking) result for Tony Abbott that causes the already sharp momentum in his favour to carry him to parity with Bill Shorten on preferred prime minister. Full results as always on the sidebar.
For those wishing to discuss next week’s British election, note that the dedicated post has been bumped up the order and appears below this one (with a new Seat of the Week below that). Home news:
• Cameron Atfield of Fairfax reports the Queensland Senate vacancy created by the resignation of Brett Mason, who has taken up the position of ambassador to the Netherlands, has attracted nine Liberal National Party candidates. They include Nicholas Monsour, managing director of a consultancy firm and brother-in-law of Campbell Newman; Bill Glasson, an ophthalmologist, former Australian Medical Association president and twice candidate for Griffith, firstly against Kevin Rudd at the 2013 election and then at the by-election held the following February after his resignation; Theresa Craig, president of the Agribusiness Association of Australia; Kerri-Anne Dooley, unsuccessful state election candidate for Redcliffe; along with “company director Teresa Harding, project officer Joanna Lindgren, company director Chris Mangan and lawyers Philip Roberts and Andrew Wallace”. The matter will be determined at a meeting of the party’s state council on May 16.
• Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail reports that Queensland Labor’s preselection nominations process is approaching its conclusion with no candidates emerging in opposition to Wayne Swan in Lilley, despite earlier talk he might face a challenge, or Milton Dick in Oxley. Dick stands to succeed sitting member Bernie Ripoll, who will retire at the next election after appearing to be headed for defeat at the hands of Dick in any case.
• The Australian Electoral Commission is inviting submissions for the federal redistribution of New South Wales until May 22, and for the Australian Capital Territory redistribution until May 29.
imacca
They will realise Tones is the problem but are afraid the cure may be worse than the disease. After their song and dance about Labor “knifing a first term PM” reaction in the electorate could be pretty dire. Not to mention the fear a dumped Abbott , vindictive bastard that he is, may do a Rudd and go in for weapons grade white anting.
guytaur @1724:
[BIS and imacca
Karen Middleton on Insiders pointed to scheduling of cabinet with the ERC to make the point they are still working on the budget.
Her question was why a week out are they still working on the budget?
A very good question showing how much they are on the run reacting to polls instead of doing policy at the moment.]
Well, how long does it take for Uncle Joe to crayon in, “Screw the poor!” The rest is IPA fluff.
poroti @1801:
[imacca
They will realise Tones is the problem but are afraid the cure may be worse than the disease. After their song and dance about Labor “knifing a first term PM” reaction in the electorate could be pretty dire. Not to mention the fear a dumped Abbott , vindictive bastard that he is, may do a Rudd and go in for weapons grade white anting.]
That and….who else do they have, really?
JBish? Doesn’t want the job – and, while basically competent, has always given me the impression of being a bit of a lightweight.
Hockey? Don’t make me laugh.
Turnbull? The souffle doesn’t rise thrice…
Morrison? Ah, he could get the job. But his hard-nosed nature won’t take all that long to turn the punters off either – if anything, he’s nastier and more vindictive than Abbott.
The Federal Liberal Party is extremely short of decent talent on its frontbench. And what talent it -does- have tends to be held by nasty, ideological compulsive liars and/or puppy-kickers.
1789
briefly
[Posted Monday, May 4, 2015 at 5:49 pm | PERMALINK
1786
Steve777
…Labor also needs to push the negative message that voters cannot believe anything that Abbott or any member of his Government say. The 2014 Budget tells us what they want to do given the chance.
Sure. The thing is, voters generally disbelieve politicians anyway. The question will be who they are inclined to think will keep their promises on tax. The LNP will be able to describe themselves as they party that have repealed taxes.
They invariably offer a buy-two-get-one-free kind of deal to voters. The discount deals are always frauds but people tend to buy anyway.
Will they buy from Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey? Six months ago i would have said “No chance.” Now I’m less certain.]
Why are you less certain?
[Matt
….Well, how long does it take for Uncle Joe to crayon in, “Screw the poor!” The rest is IPA fluff.]
The poor have done better when the LNP has been in government than when the ALP has been in government using the metrics of unemployment rates and real-non-farm-annual average wage rises, and inflation (not to mention interest rates, although that mightn’t matter to the poor as much).
1801
I would not put it past Abbott to try a DD if he was to be dumped as PM. PM dumping revenge of the millennium.
1796
Nicholas
The problem with MMT is not so much in its depiction of the economic processes, nor in its rendition of classical theory. Its basic problem is that it misunderstands money. Money – currency – is always a reciprocal of other values. These values include other currencies, land, commodities and, in a sense, time itself. Holders of currencies can always choose between these reciprocals and find ways to arbitrage them – to trade in discounts between them.
Of course, because of the pervasive availability of currency reciprocals, ultimately every economy is a kind of mega household. Currency value leaks out of the system. The proposition that Governments are not fiscally unconstrained eventually proves to be unreliable. Were this not so, there would never be any “crisis” in any economy.
This really means the MMT model no more accurately grapples with the workings of the economy than classical and New Keynesian models.
We need to think much harder about all this.
Offered without comment:
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/scott-morrison-the-next-conservative-prime-minister-of-australia-mirabella-20150504-1mz6pa.html
Interesting twitter discussion going between WB and possum re the demise of Newspoll.
It is the neoclassical and Austrian schools of thought which have the least understanding of money. Those schools of thought treat money as irrelevant. MMT is the only school of thought which theorises in a coherent and rigorous way the nature of money.
Labor and the Greens do not understand how our monetary system works. That needs to change. We aren’t under the gold standard any more. Our national government is not revenue-constrained.
[1804
victoria
Why are you less certain?]
Maybe because I always start the week badly 🙂
Really, I’m not sure that disaffection with Abbott will persist. People are gullible. The LNP will project blame on Labor. Even those who nominally might be expected to support Labor, such as the Greens, project blame and resentment towards Labor. When the election rolls around, will voters remember their anger of 2014 or will they be wondering about taxes in 2017?
I’m not so sure any more….
Happiness @1805:
[The poor have done better when the LNP has been in government than when the ALP has been in government using the metrics of unemployment rates and real-non-farm-annual average wage rises, and inflation (not to mention interest rates, although that mightn’t matter to the poor as much).]
The Liberal Party had the benefit of presiding over a decade or more of unprecedented global economic expansion, plus a once-a-century mining boom for Australia – as the saying goes, a rising tide lifts all boats.
Meanwhile, Labor always seems to be caught carrying the can when the global tide goes out again. 1929, 1974-5, 1989, 2007…it gets a lot harder to make the numbers look good when you’re governing a small, export-oriented economy through a global economic downturn.
Greensborough Growler
What’s the gist of the WB , Possum take on it ? Ta.
[1810
Nicholas
Labor and the Greens do not understand how our monetary system works. That needs to change. We aren’t under the gold standard any more. Our national government is not revenue-constrained.]
National government is not revenue constrained in the way that a household or a business or a state government is constrained. But the simple existence of an external sector means constraints will apply at some point.
Nicholas @1810:
I would imagine governments to be constrained by a combination of revenue and inflation expectations. Yes, in theory, the government can print money to pay its bills, but only in theory.
Why? Because doing so will increase inflation directly (increasing monetary base without any corresponding increase in goods/services produced) and indirectly (leading to higher inflation expectations on the part of producers and consumers, which is often a self-fulfilling prophecy).
Overall…not a good path to go down. Seignorage might be workable with a small operating deficit, but I’d want to see some very convincing data that it’s the answer to a larger one before trying it.
poroti,
Basically, the variation of the Newspolls between elections were becoming increasingly perplexing.
Possum had stopped using Newspoll in his analyses because the MOE was too large.
Hope I’m not verballing them.
In other good news:
https://t.co/HDNZh1fUAw
Greensborough Growler
Thanks. I am sure you are not verballing them.
As for variability. I am far more suspicious of poll results remaining steady. With their stated MOEs you expect a bit of wobbling between polls .
[1805
Happiness
The poor have done better when the LNP has been in government than when the ALP has been in government using the metrics of unemployment rates and real-non-farm-annual average wage rises, and inflation (not to mention interest rates, although that mightn’t matter to the poor as much).]
This is conjecture. We can never know how the LNP would have performed when Labor has been in office or, conversely, how Labor would have performed when the LNP have been in office.
What we can say is that since the end of the Post-WW2 era in 1973, national finance has been better on the whole under Labor. Labor run more energetic policies, create more investment and drive social incomes harder than the LNP. The latter is particularly important to low-income households, who have consistently benefited from Labor’s income tax, health and education policies and often been disadvantaged by LNP policies.
If I’m reading some of Possum’s tweets from late April correctly, Springborg may have violated assorted laws in talking about the allegations against Billy Gordon?
Hmm….I wonder why the press didn’t give this the full-court, 24/7 coverage they did of the initial allegations? Can’t imagine why…
Matt,
Gordon has referred Springborg to the AFP for investigation.
Prima facie the Borg is in deep trouble for trading in the names and personal details of Gordon’s children. Penalty is a year in the clink.
This has been widely covered in the press and here on PB.
Greensborough Growler
Organised by the SA government. They even had a UN boss cocky Christiana Figueres to attend.
[The UN climate chief, Christiana Figueres, has said there was “no space” for new coal developments and stressed the benefits of ambitious renewable energy targets after a meeting with representatives from seven Australian governments.]
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/may/04/un-climate-chief-says-the-science-is-clear-there-is-no-space-for-new-coal
This will give you a slightly different take on a classic movie the next time you have the chance to see it!
https://twitter.com/FranciscoNYC/status/508755860500516865/photo/1
[1815
Matt]
The problem seems to be the decline in long run real rates of return to investment. The rate at which capital/s create new marginal income and therefore new employment seems to have decelerated almost to nothing.
This is Malthus. He forecast declining rates of return in agriculture, eventually leading to the starvation of the rural poor.
Are we experiencing something similar? Each $1.00 of new (additional) GDP now requires around $5.00 in additional financial debt. Is it just that the transmission of financial capital has broken down? Is it that non-financial capital/s has been under-formed? Is it that financial capital is over-allocated to high-velocity/low-yield arbitrage plays? What is the place of financial repression in this?
Why has the rate of growth in global trade – growth that absolutely impelled expansion in real wages and ongoing reinvestment in industrial economies for more than 50 years – just completely collapsed?
GG @1821:
[Matt,
Gordon has referred Springborg to the AFP for investigation.
Prima facie the Borg is in deep trouble for trading in the names and personal details of Gordon’s children. Penalty is a year in the clink.
This has been widely covered in the press and here on PB.]
I’ll take your word for the press part (mea culpa); as for PB, I’ve been rather busy lately. Haven’t has as much time free as normal.
Briefly
Appreciate your response
Re Matt @1825: by the stardards that the LNP apply to others, Springborg’s vote is tainted and the LNP can’t accept it.
From the GG a suggested cunning plan for Abbott. Spot the fatal flaw in it 🙂
[Abbott must go early or lose
History suggests Tony Abbott should call an early election but first he will need to win back the trust of the voters. ]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/its-a-big-gamble-but-abbott-must-call-election-early-or-lose/story-fnmnl1y0-1227333318576
So will Julie Bishop now apologise for her confected defence of the AFP & attack on Labor.
An Australian federal police (AFP) officer asked to be taken off the Bali Nine drug-smuggling case after expressing disquiet about the decision to tip off the Indonesian authorities.
And admission that it could happen again ( thanks to the changes in ministerial directives ).
Will Leigh Sales take it up at the next opertunity….. fat chance !
briefly @1824:
Very deep questions. I doubt that it’s inherent – it’s not like there aren’t unemployed resources (labour, raw materials etc. etc.) just sitting around, here and elsewhere in the world. The capital’s not there to develop it, is all – at least, not without prohibitively high returns being needed.
Personally, I suspect the increasing financialization of the economy has at least a contributory role – whenever monetary masturbation generates better returns on investment than productive projects do, the flows of capital will bend toward it.
Another part involved might be the cross-border habits of capital – given that huge amounts of money (in anyone’s books) get moved around in high-interest loans that amount to tax-avoidance tactics, that may easily influence the new-GDP to new-debt ratio.
I was also going to advance the prospect of an overly high consumption/GDP ratio possibly hindering growth, but Australia’s is apparently rather low for a developed nation (per the World Bank ).
poroti@1801
Now there’s a phrase to conjure with!
Steve777 @1827:
[Re Matt @1825: by the stardards that the LNP apply to others, Springborg’s vote is tainted and the LNP can’t accept it.]
Yeah, but they’ll keep on accepting his vote…because reasons.
The real reason, of course, being that conservatism and hypocrisy go hand in hand, and they know the media won’t question the LNP’s acceptance of Springborg’s vote on the floor of the Assembly.
My son has been given a slide for one of his assignments, which supposedly sets out the needs of refugees –
Low Cost Housing, Education, English Language Classes, Health Support.
It’s set out (‘Classes’ is on a separate line) so the initial letters spell LEECH.
don
After posting I realised the danger of sparking the 172,476th RuddGillard go-round. All quiet on the western front so far. Fingers crossed.
[Not to mention the fear a dumped Abbott , vindictive bastard that he is, may do a Rudd and go in for weapons grade white anting.]
I actually don’t think Abbott would do this. For a start there isn’t the air of drama and OMG govt could fall any day now hysteria there was with the minority govt/hung parliament Gillard had to contend with.
Secondly Abbott is so unpopular with voters that a whispering campaign against his replacement would be meaningless. Who’d believe for one second the Liberals would return him to the leadership?
I have linked whole article from Paul Kelly
A substantial research project conducted by one of Australia’s prominent analysts, Mark Textor, shows the public is deeply worried about the nation’s direction and condition, recognises the need for reform but has a profound distrust in the ability of the political class to make it work.
The Textor research shows that 82 per cent of people think the Australian economy is stable, bad or getting worse and 53 per cent think life in Australia is stable, bad or getting worse. A huge 94 per cent believe the nation “needs a better plan for its long-term future”.
The project, conducted for the Business Council of Australia earlier this year, reveals a growing apprehension on the community’s part, with 83 per cent of people saying that “a worsening of economic conditions in Australia will affect them personally”.
One of the most worrying but unsurprising findings is disillusionment and distrust of the political system. People doubt whether it is strong enough to preside over the necessary changes needed. This public sentiment confirms the notion of a growing “crisis of the system”.
At the heart of the Textor research is a paradox. People’s fears are such that they realise the policy status quo is increasingly untenable — yet they are apprehensive about the ability of the political class to make viable and fair changes.
In her speech last week to the National Press Club, Business Council of Australia president Catherine Livingstone briefly alluded to some of the findings, saying: “Only 13 per cent believe the management of our finances is good and, for an unprecedented 18 per cent, the competency of government ranks as a major concern. They (the public) want to know that the risks can be managed.
“The researchers noted that this level of concern is unprecedented in over 30 years of polling in Australia. This loss of reputation and trust in our governance model has profound implications for our democracy.”
The BCA commissioned the research to understand public attitudes about future tax reform. But the findings go far beyond the tax debate. They reveal an increasingly troubled community, worried about its own situation, more ready than many believe to accept reform but distrustful of the political class and its ability to implement change on an even-handed basis.
The conclusion reached by Textor is that the Abbott government has no discernible strategy to manage the economic challenges. The public does not perceive any such strategy. It sees only a government talking with reference to silos — about the budget deficit or welfare or parental leave. The public has no sense of any overarching plan or narrative.
This drove Ms Livingston to say that “before we talk about new philosophical bases for major policy areas, and the negotiation of a new social contract, it is clear that confidence must be restored in the governance model for the country”. This highlights the extraordinary dilemma Australia now confronts. The need for a complete reassessment of the reform process by government and stakeholders bodies is imperative.
These findings expose the absurdity of demands by the Abbott government for big business to make a more explicit paid advertising commitment to economic reform. The research suggests this would be counter-productive and further alienate the public, already suspicious of special interest and business lobbying. One of the chilling findings is that 62 per cent of people say they do not trust government to manage tax reform sufficiently well to create a better system.
It is apparent, therefore, that government must find new ways to discuss the economic future with the people and launch new mechanisms based on dialogue and consensus-building in devising reform policies.
The BCA takes heart from some of the findings. They reveal a community aware the current situation must change and that the status quo means decline. This is the core condition for a conversation about reform. Yet the public needs a trusted environment to commit to this.
In relation to reform, the public wants a process of full participation. It is hostile to more sudden surprises along the lines of Joe Hockey’s first budget, a point the government recognises. Concerns about the tax system are not the current priority — that goes to jobs and job security. But 48 per cent report the current tax system is either bad or very bad. A total of 55 per cent support tax reform.
Australians are prepared to pay their taxes provided the system is fair. There is suspicion of multinational corporations avoiding tax. When GST reform is raised, the main response is: “why are they just talking about me?”. This suggests meaningful tax reform must be broadly based. If politicians expect the public to engage on tax reform and run this risk, they must offer a reward.
The research shows people see the link between tax and jobs. They want tax reform to boost jobs and employment. This goes to opportunity: the key to reform lies in opening the door to opportunity. But neither Tony Abbott nor the Treasurer frame the issue in an appealing way. They are not taking the public with them. The research suggests it is time to bring back “the big picture”.
The public is confused. It asks a number of questions. What is the future of manufacturing? What is the future of industry? Where are the new jobs? But it cannot see any strategic narrative from government that begins to answer these questions and offer a coherent way forward. The government must take the public on a journey that explains this.
Related to this is the sense that the nation is no longer working together: too many people and institutions seem to be working for themselves. The moral is obvious: there is no point in the Prime Minister and Hockey thinking they are bringing down a safe or dull budget.
They need a budget with a powerful narrative that persuades and points the community towards the path of reform.
One for the Dawn Patrol cartoon’s corner. Which child gets noticed by Tony Abbott?
https://www.facebook.com/TheCartoonsOfChristopherDownes/photos/a.484963088220469.130701.484961151553996/944826218900818/?type=1
confessions
Yep. The Libs and their mates should be able to arrange for Tones a well paid sinecure with a grand title that would sooth his bruised ego. But perhaps he is so bad that they can’t ?
poroti@1834
Like the 1975 Australian constitutional crisis, it is a discussion which will never die while there are those who remember it. Nor should it.
But I, for one, am very tired of reliving Gallipoli. So shoot me. It is over, or should be. It was 100 years ago. The veterans of the campaign would not talk of it, in the main. Neither should we. It is over. Let the dead bury the dead.
Whatever happened to the Boer War? What about the Crimean War? What about Guernica?
victoria:
That right there is proof positive of the abject incompetence of Abbott/Hockey to speak convincingly of their ability to manage our economy. In short people aren’t buying the shit they’re selling.
Liberals and their media spruikers used to love to pillory Wayne Swan, but honestly, Hockey, Abbott and co make Swan look like a seasoned media performer.
1830
Matt
Posted Monday, May 4, 2015 at 7:49 pm | Permalink
briefly @1824:
Very deep questions. I doubt that it’s inherent – it’s not like there aren’t unemployed resources (labour, raw materials etc. etc.) just sitting around, here and elsewhere in the world. The capital’s not there to develop it, is all – at least, not without prohibitively high returns being needed.]
But capital is a produced resource. Financial capital is available free in almost unlimited amounts in some sectors.
My supposition is that we need to re-think capital from scratch.
If financial capital is not mobilising production or generating income, is it capital?
Victoria
“When GST reform is raised, the main response is: “why are they just talking about me?”. This suggests meaningful tax reform must be broadly based. If politicians expect the public to engage on tax reform and run this risk, they must offer a reward.”
Well that’s not a sentiment you will ever hear from the BCA
Re Victory @1836:
From the quoted article:
[“One of the chilling findings is that 62 per cent of people say they do not trust government to manage tax reform sufficiently well to create a better system”]
Only 62%? I would trust this Government to manage the building of a canoe.
That’s wouldn’t.
[The Libs and their mates should be able to arrange for Tones a well paid sinecure with a grand title that would sooth his bruised ego. ]
I reckon so. Gawd, if they can find a taxpayer funded gig for the utterly hopeless Mirabella, it’d be a real insult to leave Tones in the wind!
Looks like Labor has finally endorsed stopped the boats. Even slow learners sometimes get the correct lesson finally I guess.
Fess
What i find more amusing is that Paul Kelly seems so shocked about how Australians see it
[After posting I realised the danger of sparking the 172,476th RuddGillard go-round. All quiet on the western front so far. Fingers crossed.]
Don’t mention the war.
I mentioned it once, but I think I got away with it all right.
[Even slow learners sometimes get the correct lesson finally I guess.]
Sometimes.
But there’s no hope for you.
David Pope on the royal baby and its value as a distractor:
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20141123-1t3j0.html
And David Rowe also on the problems of Joe Hockey:
http://www.afr.com/content//afr/photogallery/brand/david-rowes-cartoons-20141024-11beym.html