Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Fairfax-Ipsos: 54-46

New federal polls from Newspoll and Ipsos land a fair distance apart – the former giving Bill Shorten his worst personal ratings to date, the latter giving Labor a strong result in what has hitherto been a Coalition-leaning series.

Two big new polls:

• In The Australian, Newspoll repeats its surprisingly strong result from the Coalition at its previous poll three weeks ago, with Labor’s two-party lead steady at 51-49. Primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (steady), 36% for Labor (down one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Tony Abbott’s personal ratings continue to rise from their low base, with approval up four to 33% and disapproval down two to 59%, while Bill Shorten gets his worst figures to date with approval down three to 33% and disapproval up four to 54%. Abbott all but closes the gap on prime minister, now at 41-40 compared with 41-36 last time. The poll was as always conducted from Friday to Sunday, the sample being 1172.

• By stark contrast, the latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers belies the pollster’s previous form as a leaner to the Coalition in giving Labor two-party leads of 54-46 on previous election preferences and 55-45 on respondent-allocated preferences. This represents a three-point shift to Labor from the previous Ipsos poll in late February on both measures. Labor’s primary vote is up two to 38%, the Coalition is down three to 39% and the Greens are up one to 13%. Reflecting the trend elsewhere, Tony Abbott’s approval rating is up two to 34% with disapproval down two to 60%, while Bill Shorten is down one to 42% and up one to 44%. Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened slightly from 44-39 to 46-38. The poll also finds 37% support for an increase in the goods and services tax with 59% opposed – a relatively favourable result. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1404.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

992 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Fairfax-Ipsos: 54-46”

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  1. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Mark Kenny gets all over the Ipsos poll results.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-and-joe-hockey-lead-coalition-poll-dive-20150412-1mjcff.html
    We have costly, institutionalised time wasting in the pollice and legal system.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/how-the-police-waste-our-time-on-a-massive-scale-20150412-1mj1te.html
    A good article on taxation well worth contemplating.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/australias-luck-ran-out-when-it-came-to-leaders-20150412-1mj7y8.html
    The Abbott government is struggling to meet its G20 growth target.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/13/abbott-government-struggling-to-achieve-its-g20-growth-plan
    “View from the Street” gives us Law and Border – Special Victimisation Unit. And other subjects.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-government-miniseries-targeted-at-lucrative-refugee-demographic-20150412-1mjdnj.html
    Labor says that Abbott must swallow his pride over the RET negotiations.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/apr/12/tony-abbott-must-swallow-his-pride-in-ret-negotiations-labor-says
    It’s time to take stock of our soaring incarceration rate.
    https://theconversation.com/the-state-of-imprisonment-in-australia-its-time-to-take-stock-38902
    The 25 worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2015/04/11/the-eighteen-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-238/
    Questions about the value of NBNCo’s FTTN directions.
    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2015/4/10/technology/why-nbn-can-do-without-fibre-node
    Is our income tax rate really so high?
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/2015/04/12/australias-income-tax-really-high/

  3. Matthew Guy was Planning Minister under Napthine. Now his developer-friendly decisions are being reversed. Is this the kind of judgement the Victorian Liberals need in an Opposition Leader?

    [The area was rezoned in July 2012 by Mr Guy as planning minister, from a mix of industrial and commercial uses, to a capital city zone that he controlled.

    Mr Guy went on to approve 11 apartment towers – all taller than 30 storeys – and to propose a new underground rail line through the area.

    But in a sign of how rushed the plan was, the EPA has now commissioned a study to better understand the potential risk of contaminated groundwater.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/toxic-groundwater-study-launched-years-after-fishermans-bend-rezoning-announced-20150412-1mjcb8.html

    [Developer David Marriner has lost millions of dollars in potential profits, after a permit granted to him by former planning minister Matthew Guy to build a 32-level hotel was overturned.

    The Marriner Group owns the badly run-down Forum Theatre on the corner of Flinders and Russell streets.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/developer-david-marriner-loses-millions-in-potential-profits-after-vcat-overturns-approval-for-the-forum-20150412-1mjevl.html

  5. As per BK’s link. Where is Labor on this?

    [Bill Morrow has an opportunity right now to prevent one of the greatest technology disasters in Australian history by moving beyond the obsolete FTTN to FTTdp which provides cheaper G.Fast and self-install FTTP for customers that are bandwidth conscious. And there is a strong possibility that retail service providers might bundle the pit to premises fibre installation cost with broadband plans.

    It is vital therefore to use HFC and FTTdp/G.Fast rather than FTTN/VDSL2/vectoring for the fixed access network component of the NBN.]

  8. victoria @ 56

    [for all the hostility to last year’s budget, the Coalition remains the preferred economic manager of voters, with 41 per cent saying they think it is better for the economy and 32 per cent opting for Labor.]

    The Coalition has done too good a job in demonising Labor. The country will suffer for it.

  10. Good Morning

    [The French government is urging Australia to stick to an international commitment to limit global warming to two degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels.

    The appeal comes just a week before Prime Minister Tony Abbott sits down for talks with French president Francois Hollande in Paris, where climate is expected to be among the top issues discussed.

    French ambassador to Australia Christophe Lecourtier told the ABC that France, which will host the pivotal UN Summit on Climate later this year, wanted Australia to put an “ambitious” commitment on the table sooner rather than later.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-13/france-urges-australia-to-keep-climate-commitment/6384796

  11. The polls are bad news for the government. No rise means the budget poll plunge will be worse.

    Its no wonder Murdoch is trying to make Shorten look as bad as possible. He has started his election campaign agenda already.

  12. Some shibboleths die heard.

    Kenny:

    [Yet for all Mr Hockey’s unpopularity and the apparent negative impact on Mr Abbott’s standing, voters still say the Coalition is the better economic manager at 41 per cent to Labor’s 32 and the Greens’ share of just 3 per cent.]

  13. William #42: I for one had assumed you were just using some sort of crude weighted moving average filter (with truncated tip). LOESS is a much better method, but I wonder sometimes whether it tends to overstate slope changes (being slope-based). Do you have a method statement somewhere?

  14. And now the chickens come home to roost for Shorten and his merry cowardly band. The craven acquiesence on meta-data gave the libs a free kick, and when they scurry away from the fight for the TPP too, that’ll be the end of them.

    Good job. You’ve managed to lose the unloseable election.

  15. As a sarcastic Infectious Diseases Physician, can I just add my vote of thanks to Toady of Kirribilly Hall and his wrinkled retainer Scrotum Morriscum, for making the task of getting the recalcitrant parents into the immunisation fold just that much harder.

    We were making progress in the redoubts of doubt, like the NSW North Coast & Sydney’s lower North Shore, with a combined strategy of persistently engaging and countering the egregious bullshit of the hard Anti-Vacc movement (see several Crickey threads) and engaging the less delusional in process of social persuasion (the “tea and sympathy” strategy). Using the issue as another sandbag to try to stem Toady’s leaking charisma is likely to piss off and lose the 5-10% of reluctant parents who we need to maintain community immunity against the really serious threats, like resurgent measles. Many of the non-immunisers are entitled (and wealthy) enough to forgo what they see as middle-class welfare. Conversely, non-immunisation by choice is vanishingly rare in those that need the support most.

  16. Abbott, the Pommy new chum, is looking to feast off Australian sentimentality over Anzac in general and Gallipoli in particular.

    He’ll be as dinki-di as necessary to try to pull it off. He’ll tell us of of how “our” ancestors forged a nation in the heat of battle etc.

    So he must be shit scared that a prominent someone from here doesn’t play the “Armenian Genocide” card before the commemoration begins. It could cause a lot of rain to fall on his parade.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/world/ambassador-summoned-after-pope-francis-calls-armenian-killings-the-first-genocide-of-20th-century-20150412-1mjiuq.html

  17. And in a “no surprises there” comment, ABC radio news this morning……..”A new opinion poll by the Newspoll organisation, shows ‘steady as she goes’ with the LNP on 49 and Labor on 51′.

    Now I know there are opinion polls and opinion polls, but for me the newsworthy bit would be to contrast the two current polls due to their seeming at odds showings.

    Those who accuse the ABC of being the relay station for News Limited sometimes have some ammunition to fire.

  18. I note William calls the polls “Two big now polls”…..I would have thought similar treatment from ABC was the go as well.

  24. Joe is probably OS enjoying his last junket as Treasurer. He may just have enough brains to know that he and his mate Abbott are likely to go down the gurgler after this coming budget impacts. Back benchers don’t get so many OS opportunities.

    In a fit of delusion Joe told ABC this morning from OS that he and Abbott are on a “credible path to achieving a surplus”.

  25. [
    privi izumo
    Posted Monday, April 13, 2015 at 8:24 am | Permalink

    And now the chickens come home to roost for Shorten and his merry cowardly band. The craven acquiesence on meta-data gave the libs a free kick, and when they scurry away from the fight for the TPP too, that’ll be the end of them.

    Good job. You’ve managed to lose the unloseable election.
    ]
    People who don’t want to protect their kids from polio; people who believe there is any privacy on the internet; people who believe smoking isn’t a health hazard; people who believe CO2 is a wieghtless gas; peak stupidity is hard to pick.

  26. psyclaw

    As summed on twitter

    [LNP’s ECONOMIC NARRATIVE: THE SKY IS FALLING THE SKY IS FALLING! One failed budget later. IT’S OK, ALL FIXED]

  27. [64
    privi izumo

    And now the chickens come home to roost for Shorten and his merry cowardly band. The craven acquiesence on meta-data gave the libs a free kick, and when they scurry away from the fight for the TPP too, that’ll be the end of them.

    Good job. You’ve managed to lose the unloseable election.]

    Of the round 2,500 voters included in these samples, you can be quite certain that less than 1 was thinking about metadata when they responded to the survey.

  28. On twitter. Battle of the polls

    [@smh “Storm clouds gather again.”
    @australian “Shorten’s stocks fall as Abbott edges up.”
    #auspol #ausvotes ]

  29. Privi 64

    I must have been sleeping ? There was an election and Bill Shorten lost the unloseable election? Must go out have a coffee and read a Murdoch rag, sure they will be all over this. :devil:

  31. Morning all. I don’t mean to bore you all with more Bolt nonsense but I couldn’t resist the tempting target Mr 18C painted on his forehead with his response to Noel Pearson’s remarks about constitutional recognition.

    Bolt writes:

    [No to racism. No to laws that divide us by race.]

    Excellent sentiment Andrew. I wholeheartedly agree with your plea for no more racial divides. We are, after all, a single species, human beings and we should seek always to come together and never to divide, segregate or isolate ourselves along racial lines.

    I’m struck, however, by how inconsistent such a call is from your usual line of argument. After all, you’re the one who demands that we pass laws that divide us by religion. You regularly post rather divisive comments and columns highlighting the cultural incompatibility of not only Islamists, but Muslims more broadly. You mistakenly believe that the ABC is required by law to divide us by political ideology and “balance” “Labor/Green leaning leftists” with “Coalition supporting conservatives”. You seek to divide the climate change debate along similar ideological lines, “warmists” versus “skeptics”.

    In fact, your entire career has been built on the desire to divide us, along national, religious, political, cultural, social and ideological lines. You may well claim that what you really mean to do is breakdown these artificial divides and bring people together. However, such a claim rings hollow given how vicious much of your output is, filled with abusive terms like “feral”, “hate-filled” and “barbarians”, and where everything is characterized in divisive terms of Left versus Right and “us” versus “them”.

    So Andrew, while I absolutely agree with your call for “no more laws that divide us”. I don’t for a second trust that you actually mean it.

  32. On the metadata changing votes thing.

    I am opposed to metadata laws as they are now but I don’t think its going to change votes. Unless it feeds into a perception that Labor is not standing up on principles.

  33. [82
    guytaur

    On the metadata changing votes thing.

    I am opposed to metadata laws as they are now but I don’t think its going to change votes. Unless it feeds into a perception that Labor is not standing up on principles.]

    In which case, voters would have an entirely false perception. The fact of the matter is that Labor have given the right weight to law enforcement.

  34. Mandy puts her oar in.

    [Labor’s sudden burst of interest in this area is simply designed to cover up its hopelessness in office. Unfortunately, they are advocating moving ahead of other countries which runs the risk of driving the capital, and thus the jobs, overseas. You don’t need to take my word for it. The director of the OECD Centre for Tax Policy and Administration said as much to a Senate committee last week. Remember these companies employ about 250,000 Australians.

    For that reason Hockey has been smart to move in concert with others through the G20. We have signed an agreement with Switzerland with respect to an automatic exchange of tax information, and work with other countries to track the operations of multinationals. International co-operation is the only way to really win this battle. Hockey and Josh Frydenberg are just getting the job done. The Joe and Josh show is the one to watch.

    Showman Sam could be the star of a new show called “Sam and the Suckers”. Sam would pull off regular Kath and Kim-style “Look at me” stunts and any sucker who thought it meant anything sensible could play the sucker.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/ignore-showman-sam-the-joe-and-josh-show-is-the-one-to-watch-20150412-1mi8iv.html

  36. briefly

    No. Still no explanation of why a warrant is not required. Instead we have mass surveillance by collecting data on every citizen by the government in an extended time period.

    You are totally wrong on this.

  37. Polls are what they are.

    It is the analysis of them in the media that is absurd. At this point in the electoral cycle, the fact of two seriously conflicting polls in terms of voter intention with a marginal closing of the gap in personal approval ratings means pretty much nothing. But the media have to write something. So they mine the data for what little can generate headlines.

  38. [In which case, voters would have an entirely false perception. The fact of the matter is that Labor have given the right weight to law enforcement.]

    I don’t think they’ve given law enforcement the ‘right weight’ I think the law enforcement lobby has seriously overreached and hope that some kind of review scales it back in the next few years. Having said that I think it is the ‘right’ thing to do and the thing most Australians would have wanted.

  39. [In which case, voters would have an entirely false perception. The fact of the matter is that Labor have given the right weight to law enforcement.]

    Entirely wrong again master.

  40. To be brief, briefly you are not across your brief. You know not of what you speak.

    Still waiting for those independent experts. Whistles an old dixie tune…

  41. For those that doubt.

    [Mass surveillance is the intricate surveillance of an entire or a substantial fraction of a population. The surveillance is often carried out by governments or governmental organisations, but may also be carried out by corporations, either on behalf of governments or at their own initiative.
    Mass surveillance – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_surveillance]

  43. Que one of the b team to point out that:

    a) Mass surveillance is actually good for you, and has just got a bad rap over the years;
    b) The new megadata laws aren’t mass surveillance at all, because we said so;
    c) We can trust these government so just can all these conspiracy theories;
    d) All of the above, please.

  44. Is Newspoll finding it difficult to access a wide demographic these days due to its reliance on landlines? Landlines are fast disappearing for the below 65s.

  45. lizzie @ 84
    More than usually slow off the mark this morning, I didn’t work out who “Mandy” is & wasted a click. Rectified it as soon as I realised.

  47. victoria

    There have been a number of cold case arrests lately. VicPol must have been watching New Tricks and upped their game.

  49. privi izumo@64

    And now the chickens come home to roost for Shorten and his merry cowardly band. The craven acquiesence on meta-data gave the libs a free kick, and when they scurry away from the fight for the TPP too, that’ll be the end of them.

    Good job. You’ve managed to lose the unloseable election.

    If you sincerely believe that, either you are bonkers or should talk to people outside your local Greens branch.

  50. Abbott has his work cut out here in Victoria

    [#Ipsos Poll VIC Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 41 (-3) ALP 59 (+3) #auspol]

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