Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Fairfax-Ipsos: 54-46

New federal polls from Newspoll and Ipsos land a fair distance apart – the former giving Bill Shorten his worst personal ratings to date, the latter giving Labor a strong result in what has hitherto been a Coalition-leaning series.

Two big new polls:

• In The Australian, Newspoll repeats its surprisingly strong result from the Coalition at its previous poll three weeks ago, with Labor’s two-party lead steady at 51-49. Primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (steady), 36% for Labor (down one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Tony Abbott’s personal ratings continue to rise from their low base, with approval up four to 33% and disapproval down two to 59%, while Bill Shorten gets his worst figures to date with approval down three to 33% and disapproval up four to 54%. Abbott all but closes the gap on prime minister, now at 41-40 compared with 41-36 last time. The poll was as always conducted from Friday to Sunday, the sample being 1172.

• By stark contrast, the latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers belies the pollster’s previous form as a leaner to the Coalition in giving Labor two-party leads of 54-46 on previous election preferences and 55-45 on respondent-allocated preferences. This represents a three-point shift to Labor from the previous Ipsos poll in late February on both measures. Labor’s primary vote is up two to 38%, the Coalition is down three to 39% and the Greens are up one to 13%. Reflecting the trend elsewhere, Tony Abbott’s approval rating is up two to 34% with disapproval down two to 60%, while Bill Shorten is down one to 42% and up one to 44%. Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened slightly from 44-39 to 46-38. The poll also finds 37% support for an increase in the goods and services tax with 59% opposed – a relatively favourable result. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1404.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

992 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Fairfax-Ipsos: 54-46”

  1. 944

    Maybe they’re already expecting Eden-Monaro to remain a bellwether seat at the next election, meaning Hendy is no chance to retain it!

  2. From the Graduate School of Architecture, Planning & Preservation at Columbia University….The militarisation of the civil space is especially pertinent in our case with respect to Immigration policy. This is an example of civil authority attempting to exclude itself from the reach of the judiciary.

    http://www.arch.columbia.edu/studio-x-global

    [….out of 162 countries covered by The Institute of Economics and Peace, only 11 countries are not involved in conflict. Global coalitions are set-up under titles such as peacekeeping, conflict prevention and reconstruction missions to sustain peace and reconstruct the civil realm in conflict zones. These coalitions consist mostly of UN and NATO member states, private companies and development aid agencies.

    Nowadays these missions are scaling up, occupying larger territories and reshuffling the role of the armed forces in society. After the emergence of ISIS from the ruins of Iraq and Syria, the USA announced the beginning of a new era of global coalitions calling for the increasing use of political, humanitarian, economic, law enforcement and intelligence tools to support military force. The knowledge that is developed in these missions is used by the same coalition forces to bring security and sustain peace not only in war zones, but also in the civil sphere at home. Civil protests around the world are confronted with highly militarized police forces, as we’ve seen recently in Ferguson. Additionally, the War on Terror turned us all into potential threats to peace. Advanced counter insurgency methods are deployed to intensively surveil individuals, communities, the public and the private space.

    Missions & missionaries —from the “love doctrine” missions that sent missionaries around the world to help people in need, or to propagate conversion to Christianity— have always been situated at the boundaries between development and humanitarian aid and the promotion of other grand agendas.

    The seminar will navigate between territories, scales and agendas —from religion, migration and economy to war, peace and diplomacy— in order to explore contemporary global missions and their meaning for architecture and planning, in particular for the re-organization of the civil space.]

  3. TPOF huffed, puffed and declared: Pretty much every comment attacking KK has been strongly personal – none more so than the one talking about taking pieces of silver.

    Piffle. In his mea culpa KK admitted the money was a major factor in his decision to accept the job. His decision is being criticised, not his worth as a person.

    As for KK being “discredited” (which I don’t agree is true), he did this to himself. He’s worked extensively in TV and radio, so he already qualifies as having a thick skin – no room for sensitive souls in broadcast land. He’ll get over it quicker than a rejected TV series pilot and his reputation as an entertainer will remain untainted by this supposed controversy.

    Scientists are by no means exempt from doing or saying silly things. The difference between scientists and “non-scientists” (whatever that means) is very similar to the difference between progressive and conservative voters (which might be why this issue has lit a tiny flame at PB).

    Scientists/progressives adjust their views to the facts, non-scientists/conservatives adjust the facts to their views. For scientists/progressives, facts come from empirical evidence. For non-scientists/conservatives, facts come from authority. To quote Krauss: “There are no authorities in science”, which (ironically) undermines the entire premise of choosing KK as spruiker.

    Scientists base their life’s work on welcoming criticism – that’s a core function of the scientific method. Having his endorsement critiqued is trivial compared to the career-ending blows handed out to scientists who take short cuts (or commit outright fraud) in pursuit of personal glory. Science shows and science presenters (such as KK) are not immune – some recent output from Catalyst has provoked vehement criticism, for example.

  4. [Piffle. In his mea culpa KK admitted the money was a major factor in his decision to accept the job. His decision is being criticised, not his worth as a person.]

    exactly … he has done the right thing in the end …

  5. William. Can you pass this on to the Crikey coders?

    When you try loading a Crikey blog on the default browser in android, invariably the browser will hang after a short while. It used to be sporadic and I suspected it was third party content. Now its like more often than not that the browser will die in a few minutes.

    Chrome is more stable, but with Chrome on android, Crikey insists on loading the mobile version of the blog. And it commits a deadly sin. It loads a particular font that might be ok to read with good vision.. and then refuses to allow you to enlarge the screen. Those of us with poor sight hate web developers who do that.

    Can it be fixed?

  6. Yep it works.

    I have to admit that I haven’t really caught up with the Dr. Karl issue. I saw one of the ads on SBS just now. Didn’t think it was that bad but havent gone to the site they were promoting. I take it Karl has disowned the ads?

  7. Not to mention the RSL who have pimped our history and is now also claiming to have been tricked into it…..well… yes we did take a million…but…….lifes tough these days

  8. I thought this storey was 2 weeks ago?

    [trand 950

    @DoctorKarl
    I have decided to donate any moneys received from the IGR campaign to needy Government schools. More to follow tomorrow. Dr Karl.]

    Yep, he stuffed up bad. His rep is shot as far as I’m concerned.

  9. Bonhomie for hire
    [Q: Dr. Karl, why is smoking so good for me?
    A: Because Australian’s invented stuff, which is like the future, and in the future there will be cures for everything bad about smoking…]

  10. [“The only way Australia can continue to have a naval shipbuilding industry is if the industry is properly structured to drive efficiencies and improve productivity,” Mr Andrews told Australia’s Future Surface Fleet Conference in Canberra.]

    I would have thought the only way Australia can continue to have a naval shipbuilding industry is if the Government decided to build ships here.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-16/naval-ship-building-in-australia-more-expensive-than-overseas/6395972

  11. Kevin. Re the Morgan poll, I would not argue with that. And as Question suggests, Morgan’s interpretation of their data that a 0.2% increase is a “clear honeymoon lead” for Baird is a tad misleading. Perhaps they meant that if a NSW election were held at the time they did their polling, the outcome would likely have been pretty much the same as it was a few weeks ago.

  12. Good morning Dawn Patrollers,

    Peter Costello’s five most profligate decisions that have left us with a serious structural deficit.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/apr/15/peter-costellos-five-most-profligate-decisions-as-treasurer-cost-the-budget-56bn-a-year
    Maybe she’s not that lily white after all.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/phone-taps-the-source-of-cunneen-investigation-20150415-1mlvwi.html
    Go for it with my blessing ATO.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/one-in-three-rich-people-and-private-companies-targeted-by-ato-20150415-1mlp8r.html
    And the same goes for this rort.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/stop-rich-from-using-negative-gearing-to-offset-wages-save-1b-acoss-20150415-1mlio1.html
    Now THAT’s a Google tax!
    http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/consumer-security/google-charged-with-market-abuse-by-european-union-20150415-1mlzgj.html
    Things are not shaping up well for the public hospital system.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/ama-warns-of-hospital-funding-perfect-storm-that-will-lengthen-waiting-lists-20150415-1mlsn1.html
    And this is not going to help either.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/doctors-lash-out-at-mental-health-commission-push-to-shift-funding-from-hospitals-20150415-1mlrsa.html
    Your taxes (and politicians) at work.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/aps-department-orders-report-to-be-rewritten-16-times-20150415-1mki3m.html
    Is Macfarlane’s ego affecting his judgement on the RET?
    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2015/4/15/policy-politics/macfarlanes-judgement-questioned-ret-fallout-spreads
    Perth Glory gets slammed with a third breach notice.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/sport/2015/04/15/ffa-hit-glory-third-breach-notice/

  13. Section 2 . . .

    You’d never guess her political association!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/waverley-mayor-sally-betts-under-fire-for-victim-blaming-program-20150415-1mluen.html
    Adele Ferguson (a really good journalist IMHO) further examines the culture of the NAB.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/more-questions-over-nab-culture-after-huge-clydesdale-fine-20150415-1mlf99.html
    More horrible revelations at the Royal Commission. Is there no end?
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/apr/15/girl-was-gang-raped-in-orphanage-and-gave-birth-at-14-abuse-inquiry-hears
    Abbott channels Sarah Palin – Drill, baby, drill!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/marine-sanctuaries-face-new-mining-threat-after-permits-issued-for-petroleum-exploration-20150415-1mlvge.html
    Will a two tier company tax rate bring about a spate of corporate restructures to bring sub-entities’ earnings into the lower bracket?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/company-tax-cut-for-some-fuels-uncertainty-for-others-20150415-1mlst4.html
    A pointed warning on how vested interests are circling Abbott’s medical research fund.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/vested-interests-circling-medical-research-fund-like-sharks-warns-former-nhmrc-boss-warwick-anderson-20150415-1mlnzz.html
    The story of the negotiations to finalise the EastWest Link negotiations.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/east-west-link-deal-months-in-the-making-20150415-1mlx67.html
    Annastacia kicks a political goal by sacking Gordon and leaps ahead in the polls.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/apr/15/palaszczuks-call-to-expell-billy-gordon-powers-labor-ahead-in-latest-poll
    We will hear today of the outcomes from the lockout laws in Sydney.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/lockout-laws-have-reduced-numbers-hospitalised-due-to-alcoholrelated-violence-20150415-1mlliy.html
    Max the Axe’s genes are well and truly still in the Sydney Airport.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/sydney-airport-refuses-labor-billboard-attacking-corporate-tax-dodgers-20150415-1mll9j.html

  14. Section 3 . . .

    Australia is not a good place for shopping according to the latest Deutsche Bank study.
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/apr/15/mapping-prices-survey-shows-cheapest-places-for-goods-and-services
    “View from the Street” gets stuck into Woolworths’ “Fresh in our memories” debacle.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-war-is-hell-and-supermarket-social-media-share-20150415-1mls2f.html
    Shorten has little incentive to change his tactic of laying low and letting the government muck things up.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-war-is-hell-and-supermarket-social-media-share-20150415-1mls2f.html
    Alan Moir suggests Hockey’s willingness to act on corporate tax avoidance is questionable.

    John Spooner nails he TPP.

    Great work from David Pope on Dr Karl’s moment of realisation that he’d been sucker played.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20141123-1t3j0.html
    Mark Knight and some EastWest carnage.

    David Rowe takes Woolworths into the trenches.

  15. markjs

    “The shift occurred in 2013”

    Tony Abbott and his dinosaurs are walking behind the rest of the world, in the wrong direction.

  16. What on earth is the point of allowing gas exploration in a marine park, unless all parties are aware that eventually there will be pressure to extract the gas.

  17. But lizzie, they just want to know if there’s any gas there. You know, to make sure we’re all “fully informed”. I mean, they’re not really thinking of extracting it …… are they?

    Anyway, what do turtles need the gas for?

  18. nappin

    The explorers should be made to compensate the marine life for the metal breakdowns they will suffer from the soundings. That would be a start 🙁

  19. According to Wiki:

    Karl Kruszelnicki holds 2 bachelor, 1 masters, a doctorate and is currently working on a 2nd masters degree.

    None of these qualifications relate to beauty therapy or naturopathy.

    Any of the Bludger’s who have been so quick to judge the man’s supposed lack of political nous hold 5 tertiary qualifications?

    Nope?

    Didn’t think so…

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