Two big new polls:
• In The Australian, Newspoll repeats its surprisingly strong result from the Coalition at its previous poll three weeks ago, with Labor’s two-party lead steady at 51-49. Primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (steady), 36% for Labor (down one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Tony Abbott’s personal ratings continue to rise from their low base, with approval up four to 33% and disapproval down two to 59%, while Bill Shorten gets his worst figures to date with approval down three to 33% and disapproval up four to 54%. Abbott all but closes the gap on prime minister, now at 41-40 compared with 41-36 last time. The poll was as always conducted from Friday to Sunday, the sample being 1172.
• By stark contrast, the latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers belies the pollster’s previous form as a leaner to the Coalition in giving Labor two-party leads of 54-46 on previous election preferences and 55-45 on respondent-allocated preferences. This represents a three-point shift to Labor from the previous Ipsos poll in late February on both measures. Labor’s primary vote is up two to 38%, the Coalition is down three to 39% and the Greens are up one to 13%. Reflecting the trend elsewhere, Tony Abbott’s approval rating is up two to 34% with disapproval down two to 60%, while Bill Shorten is down one to 42% and up one to 44%. Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened slightly from 44-39 to 46-38. The poll also finds 37% support for an increase in the goods and services tax with 59% opposed – a relatively favourable result. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1404.
[The strong result for Labor is particularly notable given the pollster’s form over its three previous outings, which leaned consistently to Labor relative to other polls.]
You mean Liberal?
Oh, see you’ve corrected it William. 🙂
Rummel.
Well done on getting all your vax renewed. I will do the same.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/more-australians-support-an-increase-in-the-gst-20150412-1mje7u.html
[More Australians support an increase in the GST
April 13, 2015 – 12:00AM
Gareth Hutchens and Beau Donelly
A growing number of voters say they would now support an increase in the rate of the GST, following a year in which the tax has been a simmering political issue.
The latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll shows a steady rise in support among the general population for a GST hike, with more than one in three Australians now supporting an increase.
Wealthier Australians are more likely to support a GST hike than those on lower incomes, and Coalition voters are more likely than Labor or Greens supporters to think it is a good idea.
The rate of GST is currently 10 per cent.
The Fairfax-Ipsos poll found support for a GST hike among the general population has jumped from 30 per cent to 37 per cent in the last 12 months.
It continues a steady increase from late 2012, when just 12 per cent of the population supported a GST increase.
………..
The national poll of 1404 respondents, taken between Thursday and Saturday last week, found support for a GST hike is significantly higher among people living on household incomes of over $100,000 per year (46 per cent in favour), compared to those on lower incomes (32 per cent support among those earning $40,000-$100,000, and 35 per cent support among those earning less than $40,000).
Coalition supporters (49 per cent) are also more likely than Labor supporters (31 per cent) to think the GST should be increased, while more Greens supporters (34 per cent) than Labor supporters think the rate should be raised.]
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@3
Good on you Puffy!
Frednk
This tweet from finnigans earlier today was on the money
[Gee, the internal polling must be horrible that Abbott’s daughter had to be trotted out via the Daily Telecrap with this $250 rent rubbish]
Yes, good on you Puff.
LL
Wonder if this would change if tax avoidance by mulitnationals garners more attention
[Wealthier Australians are more likely to support a GST hike than those on lower incomes]
I wonder how much of this derives from a preference for a GST hike over reforms that would see the govt delving deeper into balancing out things like access to the seniors health care card or limiting access to the pension among other things.
Had any media outlet or politician even raised the issue of where Abbot’s daughter lives or whether she pays board or rent?
What were his boosters of choice thinking?
I daresay the news that Ms Abbott is paying $250 a week board at Kiribilli has Joe hockey jumping for joy.
budget emergency? what emergency?
Hilary Clinton announcing tonight. Will make for a fascinating 18 months stateside.
Mari …. Were u in Croatia last year? Any islands you’d particularly recommend…. Heading in that direction in June…
Newspoll
51-49 2PP to Labor
Primaries: Coalition 41, Labor 36, Greens 11
Abbott: Satisfied 33, Dissatisfied 59
Shorten: Satisfied 33, Dissatisfied 51
Better PM: Abbott: 40, Shorten 41
1172 sample, April 10-12
Newspoll already?
Looks like The Battle If The Polls, with News Copr full of hubris that the fight back is paying dividends, and Fairfax gloomsayers predicting imminent political oblivion for Abbott.
Serves ’em all right.
Kevin will be liking this bounciness 🙂
Newspoll was 51/49 last time as well
This is just the preview article, main one up at midnight.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll-bill-shorten-posts-worst-ratings-as-tony-abbott-claws-back-ground/story-fn59niix-1227300811648
[Newspoll: Bill Shorten posts worst ratings as Tony Abbott claws back ground
THE AUSTRALIAN APRIL 12, 2015 10:00PM
Phillip Hudson Bureau Chief Canberra
Bill Shorten has posted his worst ratings as Labor leader, with more than half of voters dissatisfied with his performance as Tony Abbott continues to claw back ground.
The latest Newspoll, taken exclusively for The Australian at the weekend, shows the Coalition has opened a five-point margin over Labor on primary vote to be ahead by 41 per cent to 36 per cent — its biggest lead in seven months.
The Coalition’s primary vote was steady while Labor fell one point to a five-month low. The Greens were unchanged at 11 per cent with support for others, which includes independents and minor parties, up one point to 12 per cent.
With preferences from the Greens based on the last election, the ALP continues to hold a two-party lead of 51 per cent to 49 per cent.
It is unchanged from the last Newspoll three weeks ago, confirming the Abbott government is enjoying its best result since September, although it is the 21st consecutive survey Labor has been in front of the government.
The poll of 1172 voters shows Mr Shorten’s satisfaction fell three points to a 12-month low of 33 per cent while dissatisfaction with his performance jumped four-points to a record 51 per cent.
The Labor leader’s net satisfaction rating — the difference between his satisfaction and dissatisfaction — deteriorated by seven points to his worst score of minus 18 points.
Mr Abbott’s satisfaction climbed four points to 33 per cent — the same as Mr Shorten and his best result since Christmas.
The Prime Minister’s dissatisfaction fell two points to 59 per cent to be under 60 per cent for the first time this year. His net satisfaction rating improved by six points to minus 26 points.]
News poll out early to neutralise Ipsos?
[News poll out early to neutralise Ipsos?]
Of course.
[Newspoll
51-49 2PP to Labor]
Hilarious. One up, the other one static, contradicting each other, yet each with their own spin on their individual results.
Australian headline “Bill Shorten has posted his worst ratings as Labor leader, with more than half of voters dissatisfied with his performance as Tony Abbott continues to claw back ground.”
‘More than half’ = 51%. More than half are dissatisfied with Abbott, 59%.
Newspoll only has a sample of 1,172. Margin of error is 2.9%.
For example
#Newspoll Preferred PM: Abbott 40 (+4) Shorten 41 (0) #auspol
#Ipsos Poll Preferred PM: Abbott 38 (-1) Shorten 46 (+2) #auspol
Stephen spencer on twitter
[Ipsos says primaries are 39-38 for 46-54 2PP, Newspoll says 41-36 for a 49-51 2PP. Slight change either way produces very different results.]
In fact both Ispos and Newspoll are consistent with a Labor 2PP of 52-53, as have been practically all recent polls.
[ Wonder if this would change if tax avoidance by mulitnationals garners more attention ]
Vic, i think that the ALP has a real chance here to spike to Tories on the GST with other issues like that on the table.
They can quite legitimately take the position that yes, lets talk about GST as possibly, sometime, part of the mix for changes. But….there is a lot of other stuff that can be considered and implemented, that ISN’T regressive, before we need touch the GST in terms of rate and application.
I think the Libs are, at the behest of their business backers, setting them selves up for another round of argument where they take the position that their way is the only way and bipartisanship means agreeing with whatever they declare is truth. Rather than actually getting ready to negotiate on something controversial.
doGs, but there is some meat out there for the ALP to hunt down this year. 🙂
imacca
[i think that the ALP has a real chance here to spike to Tories on the GST with other issues like that on the table.]
Agreed
Poll as reported in fairfax
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-and-hockey-lead-coalition-poll-dive-20150412-1mjcff.html
On twitter
[ Curious. #Newspoll usually tuesday. Protecting their boy from #Ipsos fallout. Will @abcnews mention both, or just Newspoll?]
victoria – The respondant allocated TPP is in there. 55-45, wich is less of a difference from the last election TPP prefs than some Ipsos polls.
[The eight-point gap in the nationwide telephone poll of 1404 people taken between April 9-11, is based on preference allocations from the last federal election. However, it widens further to 10 points (55/45) when respondents were asked where they would direct their second preference if an election were held now.]
[On twitter
Curious. #Newspoll usually tuesday. Protecting their boy from #Ipsos fallout. Will @abcnews mention both, or just Newspoll?]
Wow, so the anti-vaxxers aren’t the only conspiracy theorists having a cry on the internet tonight.
LL
thanks
[1182
confessions
briefly:
LOL!
In all seriousness though, as you know, only partisan rusted on voters are going to vote with metadata laws uppermost in their minds.]
yes…and even then, only 1/10000 will be thinking of changing their vote…
I’m still not convinced that the ALP pv is as low as 36%.
Nor do I believe there is any reason for Shorten to have a 51% disapproval rating.
Darn,
Exactly. Take newspoll with a pinch of salt. Just like everything Murdoch it’s propaganda.
Mark the Graph’s take on the polls
https://twitter.com/Mark_Graph/status/587241473415884800
http://marktheballot.blogspot.com.au/2015/04/aggregated-polling-update.html
[Sunday, April 12, 2015
Aggregated polling update
Another set of noisy polls – moving in different directions – giving different messages on the state of the nation’s voting intentions:
………….
Using the Bayesian model to peer through the polling noise and house effects suggests there has been little movement for six weeks in the government’s polling fortunes.]
What is absolutely bizarre is not the conflicting polls, which would meet in the centre if the margin of error in each case was applied to bring them closer, but the sureness with which the relevant journalists are reporting the poll results as though they were significant.
The polls themselves are like someone asking two days into a five day test who is going to win. And the analysis, especially from the Australian is like making a big thing about England scoring a penalty goal five minutes into the second half to bring them within 20 points of the All Blacks.
[Using the Bayesian model to peer through the polling noise and house effects suggests there has been little movement for six weeks in the government’s polling fortunes.]
In other words, political momentum is in a holding pattern until the budget, when the shape of the year ahead for the Government has to be disclosed. And having absolutely trashed the narrative of the last year, what can they come up with that will satisfy their stakeholders, successfully demonstrate a fair approach and still appear like there is some sort of coherence?
People have actually stopped listening to this government, but are holding judgement until they have to deliver it closer to polling day.
Given Ipsos has tended to lean Coalition in it’s early incarnations while Newspoll is locked in 51-49, I’d say probably a slightly shift toward the Coalition, with the Ipsos being a bit noisy this week.
Say 52-48 in a bit of a slow period for actual politics. Shorten will have his chance at the Budget to shift people back to him; Abbott will have his chance to show his spots really are stripes now.
Should be a fun few weeks to come.
You can tell the Oz is running scared because their analysis has the Labor numbers first before every set of Coalition numbers. Who’s the government again?
Mark the Ballot’s Bayesian model is giving Labor a 0.9% better result than his LOESS model – LOESS being what BludgerTrack uses. He notes that “the end-points in the LOESS regression are very volatile, and the technique is overly sensitive to endpoints and outliers … However, my experience is that the LOESS model usually comes into line with the Bayesian model as more data points are added.”
http://marktheballot.blogspot.com.au/2015/04/aggregated-polling-update.html
[ In other words, political momentum is in a holding pattern until the budget, when the shape of the year ahead for the Government has to be disclosed. ]
Agreed.
[ And having absolutely trashed the narrative of the last year, what can they come up with that will satisfy their stakeholders,]
Their difficulty is that if they satisfy those they consider to be their stakeholders they piss off enough voter to lose in 2016, which means their stakeholders press harder to get their looly NOW which….. = death spiral.
[ successfully demonstrate a fair approach ]
Possible…… IF they have the full support of the media to spin it, but difficult. The long term solid behindedness of their polling indicates that punters are not as stupid as they thought and would like them to be.
[ and still appear like there is some sort of coherence? ]
Lol! They gave away any chance of that a few weeks ago.
The panic in Coalition ranks will be a joy to watch if this years Budget isn’t a standout success. It wont be a matter of giving Abbott and Hockey more time, it will be:
” oh my doG how stupid were we to not dump them in Sept 2014 please people we have listened and learned and look at our shiny new team and would you like a slice of Tony’s sauteed liver with that cigar sir??? “
Crackdown on egregious tax avoidance schemes by multinationals and very wealthy individuals to fix the budget versus a rise in the GST. Maybe we have a contest.
[Crackdown on egregious tax avoidance schemes by multinationals and very wealthy individuals to fix the budget versus a rise in the GST.]
There isn’t that much money in the ‘crackdown’ it is mostly illusory.
William,
My first impression of Mark the Ballot’s site is that his graphs, though unintelligible to a normal human being, are much funkier than yours.
My unscientific analysis is that Abbott will probably narrowly win the next election.
Sorry. And Goodnight.
[
General Election 2015: David Cameron’s main hope is the return of the ‘shy Tories’
They tell pollsters they agree with liberal policies – but in the privacy of the polling booth, vote differently]
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/general-election-2105-david-camerons-main-hopeis-the-return-of-the-shy-tories-10169967.html
and which do we think will be reported most?
Morning all
Hilary announces her run for President in this short video
http://youtu.be/0uY7gLZDmn4