Galaxy: 50-50 in Queensland

A timely state poll for Queensland finds strong sentiment in favour of Billy Gordon resigning from parliament, and suggests a fresh election wouldn’t change much.

The Sunday Mail has helpfully commissioned a state poll for Queensland from Galaxy, and it records a very muted honeymoon for Annastacia Palaszczuk’s new government, with support for Labor at 39% compared with 37.5% at the election, and the Liberal National Party at 42% compared with 41.3% at the election. The headline two-party figure is 50-50, which actually suggests a swing of about 1% to the LNP, but this is based on preference flows from both of the last two elections. A result based only on preferences from the recent election would presumably show a slight move to Labor.

Despite a mediocre result for Labor all, Annastacia Palaszczuk records a very strong approval rating of 53% with 24% disapproval, compared with pre-election Newspoll numbers of 38% and 40%. On the question of embattled Cook MP Billy Gordon, 62% of respondents said he should resign, with only 26% disagreeing. More to follow.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

22 thoughts on “Galaxy: 50-50 in Queensland”

  1. Interesting Galaxy, partly foreshadowed by the recent Roy Morgan state SMS polls, which differed from this poll TPP by a point towards the LNP. Whereas the Victorian govt is getting a honeymoon period according to Morgan, none in QLD. Still, now being 50-50 in Galaxy after the Gordon blow up isn’t too bad.

    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6125-sms-morgan-poll-state-voting-intention-march-2015-201503180359

    March 18 2015
    ……..
    QUEENSLAND: Election in January resulted in a ‘Hung’ Parliament . Still very close

    2PP#: LNP 51% (down 0.5% since February 13-15, 2015) cf. ALP 49% (up 0.5%). Female electors: ALP 52% (down 1%) cf. LNP 48% (up 1%). Male electors: LNP 55.5% (down 0.5%) cf. ALP 44.5% (up 0.5%).

    Primary vote electors: LNP 44% (unchanged), ALP 36.5% (down 1%), Greens 9.5% (up 1.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 2.5% (unchanged), Palmer United Party 1.5% (down 1.5%), Family First 2% (up 1%), Independents/ Others 4% (unchanged). Female electors: ALP 39.5% (down 2.5%), LNP 40.5% (up 0.5%), Greens 9.5% (up 0.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 2% (unchanged) Palmer United Party 1.5% (down 0.5%), Family First 2.5% (up 1.5%), Independents/ Others 4.5% (up 0.5%). Male electors: LNP 47.5% (down 0.5%), ALP 34% (up 1.5%), Greens 9.5% (up 2.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 3% (down 1%), Palmer United Party 1% (down 3%), Family First 1% (unchanged), Independents/ Others 4% (up 0.5%).

    Better Premier: Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk (ALP) v Lawrence Springborg (LNP) electors:
    Ms. Palaszczuk 61% (up 8.5% since February 13-15, 2015) cf. Mr. Springborg 39% (down 8.5%); Lead to Ms Palaszczuk 22% (up 17%). Female electors: Ms. Palaszczuk 66% (up 8%) cf. Mr. Springborg 34% (down 8%). Male electors: Ms. Palaszczuk 56% (up 9%) cf. Mr. Springborg 44% (down 9%).

    ………

    Last Queensland State Election was held on Saturday January 31, 2015.

  2. http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/galaxy-poll-reveals-queenslanders-back-premier-annastacia-palaszczuks-call-for-billy-cook-to-resign/story-fnihsrk2-1227300019824

    Galaxy poll reveals Queenslanders back Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s call for Billy Cook to resign
    STEVEN WARDILLState Political Editor
    The Courier-Mail
    April 12, 2015 12:00AM

    QUEENSLANDERS have backed Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s call for Cook MP Billy Gordon to resign.

    A Galaxy poll conducted exclusively for The Sunday Mail has revealed more than 60 per cent of Queenslanders believe Mr Gordon should quit as an MP following a scandal involving previously unpaid child support, his criminal past and allegations of domestic violence levelled at him that he denies.

    The poll has also revealed that while the scandal may have derailed the new government’s agenda, it has not impacted on Ms Palaszczuk’s standing, with 53 per cent of those surveyed believing the Premier is doing a good job.

    Labor has not managed to overtake the LNP on a two-party preferred basis, however, with the two parties remaining locked at 50 per cent each.

    ……….

    The first major poll since the extraordinary downfall of the Newman government on January 31 also found Labor’s vote has increased marginally from 37.5 per cent to 39 per cent since the election while the LNP’s support also increased slightly from 41.3 per cent to 42 per cent.

    On a two-party preferred basis, the major parties are locked at 50 per cent apiece.

    The result is based on preference flows from the 2012 election, when there was a historically low number of second choices given, and 2015, when there was a significant surge.

    The Labor leader remains her party’s best asset, with 53 per cent of Queenslanders satisfied with how she is performing as premier while 24 per cent were dissatisfied.

  3. Yeah, that’s basically where QLD Labor would have expected to be after the Gordon blowup.

    In short, it has deleted their honeymoon.

  4. Arrnea Stormbringer – it could be there never was going to be any honeymoon, if the Roy Morgan SMS polls have any validity. Reminds me of how the 2010 federal election saw little polling change for a while after the actual vote, but we’d have to look back to the previous close QLD elections to see if there is any precendent there.

  5. The Galaxy poll is actually improvement over polling that was done straight after the election which had Labor behind. If the Couier Mail speculation of Labor considering a snap election are true, then this polling will give them pause for thought.

    Too early to say what State Labor fortunes hold in Queensland, my guess is that it will take 6 months to see how this minority Labor government holds up. If there is stability then the minority government problem won’t be so much of a concern with the public.

    But Lawrence Springborg promises of constructive opposition are wearing thin with the public already. The State LNP shadow Transport minister already blaming Labor for the Easter road deaths which some view as ‘gutter politics’, particularly considering Labor has only been in power only just over two months.

    LNP former MP’s involved in dirt files on Billy Gordan and complaints by the LNP on raising donations threshold suggest this LNP opposition won’t remain competitive for long.

  6. Under the circumstances this is not a bad result for Labor. Importantly for Paluszczuk her prompt action over the Gordon revelations has preserved her personal credibility. She should get on with governing.

  8. Unfortunately Morgan SMS polling was rubbish in the NSW election after also being rubbish in Victoria; for Queensland they didn’t poll much and got lucky on the 2PP because of errors cancelling out. So this is the first reliable data we’ve got.

    The preferencing issue is tricky. It’s pretty safe to assume preferences will moderate by the next election but would they have done so by that much already? Perhaps the aim is to have a uniform preferencing method for the whole term. By 2015 preferences the figures would probably be about 52 to ALP.

  9. Edna

    What a nightmare for QLD Labor.

    Speaking of nightmares, how’s your mate Campbell Newman doing these days? We’ve barely heard a peep.

  12. The headline two-party figure is 50-50, which actually suggests a swing of about 1% to the LNP, but this is based on preference flows from both of the last two elections.

    How do you get preference flows from both elections? Split the votes 50-50?

  13. Raaraa@12

    The headline two-party figure is 50-50, which actually suggests a swing of about 1% to the LNP, but this is based on preference flows from both of the last two elections.


    How do you get preference flows from both elections? Split the votes 50-50?

    Probably; just get the average of the two preference flows I’d expect.

  14. Of course you can expect:

    1) Call for various criminal investigations into Billy
    2) Endless commentary about how stable the State Government is
    3) Debate about whether or not Billy’s vote is tainted

    Before too long , ie before Christmas 2015 I’d expect the polling to settle into 48/47-52/53 against Labor once all of that washes through the system.

    Anna 2.0’s premiership was finished the minute Billy decided to continue “serving” the voters of Cook.

    Its like Geoff Shaw come to BrisVegas! Great fun to watch!

  15. Can you expect a honeymoon period when nobody actually expected Labor to win the election?

    Also, has there been any electorate level polling in Cook? I would be very interested if the voters actually want a change to the status quo. Gordon is essentially srstill a Labor member that they voted for but with latent extra power

    Also would seem very likely a new election would change nothing

  18. “Bookies predicting a 2017 qld election, in other words qld labor won’t last the distance.”

    Well considering it will be three years since the last election on 31 Jan 2018, I think a late 2017 election is entirely reasonable.

    (yes yes, the election does’t have to be held until sometime in… April(?) 2018 from memory but if they went longer than 31 Jan there’s be bleatings that they were afraid to face the people)

    d

  19. (yes yes, the election does’t have to be held until sometime in… April(?) 2018 from memory but if they went longer than 31 Jan there’s be bleatings that they were afraid to face the people)

    Given the kerfuffle about the Jan election I think they could safely take it into mid-Feb, but yes, later than that and the rhetoric would crank.

  21. Unlike Thomson, Palasczszuk has acted quickly and decisively, and unlike Shaw Gordon has (so far) shown no inclination to go rogue.

    It may prove to be a festering sore but I think there is no particular reason to expect it to be.

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