The New South Wales election together with the Easter break have left the big media polls out of the picture recently, with Newspoll taking an extra week off, Ipsos last being heard from in late February, and a full two months having passed since the last result from Galaxy. That means the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is heavily influenced at the moment by Morgan and Essential, together with last week’s result from ReachTEL. This week’s result from Morgan was the Coalition’s best since October, making a full 1.0% of difference on the two-party reading and giving the Coalition a four-seat boost on the seat projection. Newspoll’s quarterly state breakdowns have also been added to the model, which means there’s more movement than usual this week at state level. Labor’s rather excessive projected gains in Queensland have been moderated to the tune of three, and they’re also off one each in New South Wales and Tasmania, while gaining one in Western Australia. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.
Added attractions:
• As I always do after Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns are published, I now offer a full suite of state-level BludgerTrack breakdowns featuring primary vote details and trend charts.
• Seat of the Week is back in new-and-improved form, and will henceforth be published every Wednesday evening concurrently with BludgerTrack. Today’s entry is Corangamite.
• In addition to the state breakdowns highlighted here the other day, The Australian has also published quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by gender and age.
• The Age reports that ReachTEL conducted polling of four marginal seats for United Voice, including a survey of 707 respondents in Eden-Monaro that credited Labor with a lead of 57-43. There was also said to be a “swing to Labor” in Bonner (Queensland), Hindmarsh (South Australia) and Swan (Western Australia), though I’m unclear if that means they were in front. (UPDATE: The West Australian reports the Swan result gives Labor a 54.7-45.3 lead on respondent-allocated preferences, from primary votes of 40.1% Liberal, 37.2% Labor and 10.5% Greens – hat-tip to Leroy Lynch).
Note that I am not making any argument against Bilbo’s aggregation (although note also that in the very first sentence above he says that the current movement is based on thin evidence).
I am pointing out that the claim that the current standing is the best Labor can do is nonsense. The idea that Labor can only demonstrate a winning position by maintaining a 55-45 poll lead continuously is quite obviously a deliberately false standard.
Abbott Truss presser
Edwina says that Bludger Track is “right on the money”.
By what standard?
By the reliable (Ha! Ha!) standard contained in the mind of a conservo troll of course. Clearly he did not read William’s commentary.
Joseph Stiglitz and Thomas Piketty
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fg6UwAQJUVo
TBA
[You can rage against the polls but you can’t deny the laws of mathematics and probability.]
As Andrew Robb pointed out — any government which has been behind in the polls for a considerable amount of time will lose the next election, regardless of polling blips along the way.
@INETeconomics: LIVE NOW: Thomas #Piketty and @JosephEStiglitz kick off the opening night of #NewThinkingParis http://t.co/XBI2EH9eLg
[44
Edwina StJohn
The aggregate produced by William seems to be pretty much on the money and is the same approach used by that Nate silver fellow in the states with a similar degree of accuracy.]
Are the two approaches the same? I thought that Silver (and Mark The Graph) use Bayesian theory and therefore produce results that would differ slightly from both Bludgertrack and Kevin Bonham.
Perhaps William can elaborate.
PB playing up so I posted twice.
“@lenoretaylor: I hope @SMicallefOnline is watching this press conference about building a road that nearly goes to Gympie #auspol”
Vic
It’s only one dubious poll from Morgan, which had the labor pv allegedly plunging 4% to an improbable 36% (less when William factors in the Morgan house effect) , that is behind the shift in Bludgertrack. Nothing has happened to cause that kind of dramatic movement in such a short space of time.
[54
zoomster
TBA
You can rage against the polls but you can’t deny the laws of mathematics and probability.
As Andrew Robb pointed out — any government which has been behind in the polls for a considerable amount of time will lose the next election, regardless of polling blips along the way.]
Of course, this is not necessarily true in all cases. Robb asserted this in order to deflect defeatist predictions about Abbott, whom Robb was determined protect.
The LNP have had a few better weeks. Abbott has had his mouth shut. The Ministers haven’t publicly messed things up. Apathy is setting in. But the narrative has also changed from attacking social spending to tax. So people may be listening a bit more to the Government than they were last year.
The most important thing will be household finances – the direction of incomes and jobs and tax proposals.
Some good news
@WhiteHouse: BREAKING: President Obama supports efforts to ban the use of conversion therapy for minors → http://t.co/TAZqqDxwd9 #LeelahsLaw
And, of course, as has been pointed out numerous times, you can’t apply systems meant to analyse polls around Presidential races to polls in a multi electorate system.
Abbott washing his hands of anything happening at Nauru.
“@ABCNews24: Abbott on #Nauru allegations: The important thing to remember is that the best thing you can do is stop the boats #auspol”
Abbott tried to do a runner on the Nauru questions. Comes back to laud Truss and media lets him get away with it.
Except that William obviously can and does.
Regardless, why are people feeding ESJ’s stirring by showing up their insecurities and defensiveness?
guytaur
[“@ABCNews24: Abbott on #Nauru allegations: The important thing to remember is that the best thing you can do is stop the boats #auspol”]
At what cost?
[62
zoomster
And, of course, as has been pointed out numerous times, you can’t apply systems meant to analyse polls around Presidential races to polls in a multi electorate system.]
The US Presidential race is fought in multiple electorates – in the Electoral College. So the contests are more alike than they might appear.
MTBW
Abbott was doing that rabbit in the headlights look. Maybe because he knows Senator Hanson Young has referred allegations to child sex abuse Royal Commission set up by FPMJG.
Guytaur
The man is a disgrace he shows no concern no compassion and no care.
I hope Sen Hanson Young’s referral to the child sex abuse Royal Commission gets up.
It is too early to make any prediction about the polls and the next election. Until mid February it was looking terrible for Abbott and good for Labor. it is not so clear cut any more.
However the real test is the budget. If Sloppy produces a budget that people can tolerate, then I fear that Abbott will recover, especially if Peta keeps a muzzle on him.
Regardless of the budget, Shorten’s strategy will need to change after the budget. The small target strategy was probably sensible for 2014, given the idiocy of Team Liberal, but once the term half way mark is well passed, Labor does need to present as an alternative government. They will need:
1. A clear budget/economic strategy
2. Absolutely NO sense of division
3. Policies that will ensure Greens (and other minors) voters willingly preference them, rather than drift to informal or even preference Libs
guytaur
On RN yesterday Fran interviewed a psychologist involved with Nauru. Scrott Morrison could be in deep shit if half of what he said is true.
The government (Dutton) is trying the “we never knew” line but the guy says they were informed on multiple occasions over the last 18 months.
How sad is this and how would her fiance and family ever cope with this:
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/man-arrested-expected-to-be-charged-with-murder-of-stephanie-scott-in-leeton-20150409-1mh3p7.html
[The US Presidential race is fought in multiple electorates – in the Electoral College. So the contests are more alike than they might appear.]
The difference, then, is in the data that’s available. A state-wide poll tells you who’s ahead in that state, which is exactly the resolution you need for the Presidential and Senate elections.
There are still the steps of determining the reliability of each poll, and determining what correlations there are so that one state’s result informs you on other states, but the task Bludgertrack has of dividing a national poll into states and electorates isn’t required for these kinds of polls in the US.
But then there’s the issue of predicting turnout in the US elections!
poroti
This is a blight on all Australians even though I know some will be baying to have them live in squalor.
For mine the only Australians who have a right to complain are the Aboriginals.
lizzie
Yes the Government is in all kinds of trouble. They are attacking human rights lawyers. Never a good look for a government with questions to answer.
It will go down as well as the attacks on Gillian Triggs one of those human rights lawyers.
guytaur
Great relief in Abbott’s tone as he escapes difficult questions on energy and Nauru, and settles into a comfortable and repetitive speech on the ‘stop the boats’ statistics.
Notice that one of Abbott’s get-out sentences is ‘I accept that; I absolutely accept that’. Then he riffs into his well-rehearsed mantras.
[Regardless, why are people feeding ESJ’s stirring by showing up their insecurities and defensiveness?]
Good question. Can’t understand it myself.
[How sad is this and how would her fiance and family ever cope with this]
I don’t know if anyone has seen the CM front page in relation to this tragedy, but it’s all over twitter. Absolutely disgraceful.
…I was going to add that the other difference is, of course, that between optional and compulsory voting, but my crap internet then crashed.
Lol, guytaur because attacking human rights lawyers goes down like a lead balloon outside of inner city Melbourne and Sydney.
i think the point DTT, is the Libs did blow 18 months of their first term , Labor was wracking up huge poll leads – so why do anything was the obvious conclusion of Team Shorten. The reality is reality has mugged the Liberals and ideology is taking a very back seat to winning re-election.
Team Shorten like the Bourbons has forgotten nothing and learned nothing. Corruption in the CFMEU? The smart play would have been to denounce it. DSP rorts – Labor could have gone along with stopping them . Backing obvious privatisations again would be a winner. Collectively the message is these people arent ready for primetime.
zoomster
I hate crap internet. One of the reasons I am in favour of the NBN and not Fraudband.
FWIW you have my sympathies.
Socrates@8
Doing a pretty good job of it in the UK too of late.
No doubt they are cranking it up hard as we speak. But at least we still have a chance to stop them. The US in particular is probably too far gone now.
guytaur
some how mysteriously chewed up all my allocation in less than a fortnight, so it’s going to be a long, frustrating time…
@latikambourke: Moar Husic truthbombs. ping @jdub http://t.co/8QShXgBYno
Re DTT @70: I am in two minds about whether Labor needs to have detailed policies in the near future. Abbott got elected with basically no policies other than to stop boats and taxes. With a media that was mostly lazy and supportive, he could get away with it.
The laziness would work for Labor too, but much of the media, especially the Murdochracy, will be campaigning for the Government and against Labor. In particular, the latter will wilfully misrepresent any policies. If anyone is disadvantaged it will be painted as the greatest injustice since forever. If Labor puts out any policies it will need a well thought- out media / communication strategy.
80
Edwina StJohn
It’s all a lot simpler than you make out.
Last year the LNP set out to demolish social incomes. Then they stopped. Now the question is what, if anything, will the parties propose with respect to incomes, jobs and tax.
I can guarantee you that most voters would not spend one millisecond thinking about the CFMEU, rorting the DSP, candidates for privatisation or the amateur theatrics that’s otherwise known as Senate Estimates.
zoomster
Get your ISP to show you where data is being used. It could be a hacker is using your computer. It could be a programme reporting home. It could be someone in your house has been using your computer to stream video when you are not there.
By getting that information you can determine when the data is being used and thus do trial and error to work out what is using the data. That is is the times don’t tell you immediately.
Good thing you have a shaped service by the sound of it and not a get charged excessive rates when you go over data allowance that creates worst kind of bill shock.
The thing that ESJ wilfully forgets is the train wreck that the polls reflect is entirely self inflicted.
With the approaching budget and Labor national conference, Labor’s response and decisions taken will be the first active moves on their part to start laying out the policies of the next Labor government.
At that point Labor will start to impact the polls as voters start to consider their policies to the L&NP’s.
Apparently various states in America are putting laws in place to prevent social security payments being spent on swimming pools, cruises, lobster, and steak.
I’m surprised the unemployed having been living such luxurious lives.
guytaur @ 87
It sounds a bit like a metadata fishing trip.
BIS
😆
That would be ironic.
[89
zoomster
Apparently various states in America are putting laws in place to prevent social security payments being spent on swimming pools, cruises, lobster, and steak.
I’m surprised the unemployed having been living such luxurious lives.]
I think the plan is to sequester “food stamp” payments.
[In the United States, Social Security is primarily the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) federal program]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Security_%28United_States%29
[80
Edwina StJohn
….because attacking human rights lawyers goes down like a lead balloon outside of inner city Melbourne and Sydney.]
I wish we had more focus on human rights issues in Western Australia, where the treatment of indigenous people is still conditioned by the contradictory policies of concurrent dispossession, assimilation and exclusion.
Maybe we should move the Human Rights Commission from Pitt Street to Alice Springs or Hall’s Creek.
briefly
that would be it. It was on some TV show I was only half listening to.
DLP very unhappy with Madigan.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/hes-no-xenophon-dlp-blasts-senator-john-madigan-for-defecting-and-forming-new-party-20150409-1mh4j8.html
[ “@ABCNews24: Abbott on #Nauru allegations: The important thing to remember is that the best thing you can do is stop the boats #auspol” ]
This makes me angry. The nasty little tosser is conflating AS policy with institutionalised child abuse. That is wrong on so many levels.
The problem the Govt have here is not actually the policy of sending kids into detention in Nauru.
The immediate and important problem is LEAVING those kids in detention in Nauru when there is credible evidence that they are being abused in detention by people WE are paying.
These are children that definitely were and arguably still are in our care ( since we are financing it all) that the Minister has CHOSEN to send there, so they cant evade responsibility for this.
[ I hope Sen Hanson Young’s referral to the child sex abuse Royal Commission gets up. ]
Absolutely. But, there needs to be something more urgent happen. Pull at risk children out NOW. Call it “pending the outcome of investigations” or whatever CYA terms they need to use but do something.
[ On RN yesterday Fran interviewed a psychologist involved with Nauru. Scrott Morrison could be in deep shit if half of what he said is true. ]
Couldn’t happen to a nicer bloke. 🙁 He deserves all he gets over this.
[ The government (Dutton) is trying the “we never knew” line but the guy says they were informed on multiple occasions over the last 18 months. ]
Dutton is an idiot and below contempt.
I suspect that what the Libs fear most is that RC level investigations into the treatment of children in detention will lead to wider evidence being given on the treatment of AS more generally in the detention system.
These people are detained by us. Fine. 🙁 That’s the policy decision of the elected Govt. But if we are going to detain them in the way and places that we are, then we have a duty of care to them that is NOT being met.
The last ALP Govt at least tried to build credible regional solutions. The Libs just seem to want everything to go away now that they have created dark, secretive holes to dump arrivals in and have their “we Stopped the Boats” mantra for domestic consumption.
If this is stopping the boats the cost is far too high.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11523565/Alexis-Tsipras-risks-fresh-schism-with-Europe-warning-of-new-Cold-War-with-Putin.html
[Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras ramped up his defiance towards eurozone creditors on Wednesday, using a visit to the Kremlin to assert that his country’s sovereignty remained undiminished in the wake of its protracted debt crisis.
In a highly symbolic visit to Moscow on the eve of a crunch International Monetary Fund loan repayment, Mr Tsipras insisted Greece was not a “debt colony”, but a “sovereign nation with the indelible right to carry out its own foreign policy”.
Following a three-hour meeting with president Vladimir Putin, the Leftist premier asserted his government would continue to forge an independent economic and foreign policy, hailing a “new spring” in Greco-Russian relations.
“We are a sovereign state and we can sign agreements in our common interest in order to combat the crisis in our country. This is why we came here. We want to create bonds of trust with Russia.”]
Meanwhile…
[Greek IMF representative resigns before crunch repayment]
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11521401/Alexis-Tsipras-meets-Vladimir-Putin-Live.html
Greece offers to become a chip in Russia’s strategic games.
Steve
I think Abbott ONLY got away with his slogans because people were fed up with ALP in-fighting and were scared by the hung parliament. Also they were scared by the budget debt stuff.
Labor can never get away with just slogans- partly the media and partly because they must always seem better than COAL.
I think if NOTHING else Labor will need an economic policy – and it has to be good and they have to sell it.
Most other policies are fluffy and you can put off for a while, but the public needs confidence that Labor knows what it is doing with the economy. I would wheel out Ken Henry and even Bernie Fraser. Give a sense of security. Pay for quality OS people to come touring Stiglitz, Krugman etc.
Latika’s interpretation is that the pressure is back on Labor to resolve the RET issue. Hmmm.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/this-is-their-first-offer-tony-abbott-puts-pressure-back-on-labor-over-renewable-energy-target-20150409-1mh8ut.html