The New South Wales election together with the Easter break have left the big media polls out of the picture recently, with Newspoll taking an extra week off, Ipsos last being heard from in late February, and a full two months having passed since the last result from Galaxy. That means the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is heavily influenced at the moment by Morgan and Essential, together with last week’s result from ReachTEL. This week’s result from Morgan was the Coalition’s best since October, making a full 1.0% of difference on the two-party reading and giving the Coalition a four-seat boost on the seat projection. Newspoll’s quarterly state breakdowns have also been added to the model, which means there’s more movement than usual this week at state level. Labor’s rather excessive projected gains in Queensland have been moderated to the tune of three, and they’re also off one each in New South Wales and Tasmania, while gaining one in Western Australia. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.
Added attractions:
• As I always do after Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns are published, I now offer a full suite of state-level BludgerTrack breakdowns featuring primary vote details and trend charts.
• Seat of the Week is back in new-and-improved form, and will henceforth be published every Wednesday evening concurrently with BludgerTrack. Today’s entry is Corangamite.
• In addition to the state breakdowns highlighted here the other day, The Australian has also published quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by gender and age.
• The Age reports that ReachTEL conducted polling of four marginal seats for United Voice, including a survey of 707 respondents in Eden-Monaro that credited Labor with a lead of 57-43. There was also said to be a “swing to Labor” in Bonner (Queensland), Hindmarsh (South Australia) and Swan (Western Australia), though I’m unclear if that means they were in front. (UPDATE: The West Australian reports the Swan result gives Labor a 54.7-45.3 lead on respondent-allocated preferences, from primary votes of 40.1% Liberal, 37.2% Labor and 10.5% Greens – hat-tip to Leroy Lynch).
Good morning, love to walk across the wet driveway…
Is anyone around???
Cooo-EEEE
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Abbott’s energy white paper exposed as another political document masquerading as a serious policy development stage. What a surprise!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/energy-white-paper-wilfully-deluded-on-climate-change-20150408-1mgrnu.html
Another “prestige” school comes to the attention of the child abuse Royal Commission.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/private-school-hit-by-abuse-allegations-20150408-1mgx8w.html
How are you liking the job you coveted Joe?
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/fight-over-gst-looms-as-treasurer-joe-hockey-considers-giving-a-greater-share-to-wa-20150408-1mguv3.html
The head of Treasury speaks out.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/treasury-boss-john-fraser-calls-for-a-fundamental-rethink-of-superannuation-pensions-20150408-1mgqwq.html
Ed Husic cruels hypocritical film and TV companies.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/treasury-boss-john-fraser-calls-for-a-fundamental-rethink-of-superannuation-pensions-20150408-1mgqwq.html
Richard Ackland looks at how the judicial system in Queensland is travelling after Newman’s controversial appointment of Carmody as Chief Justice.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/apr/08/tim-carmodys-appointment-wounded-qlds-courts-yet-they-stagger-on
Fairfax at yesterday’s Senate inquiry into multinationals and their taxation arrangements.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/sandwiches-on-the-menu-as-corporate-chiefs-front-tax-inquiry-20150408-1mgvkh.html
http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/apple-google-microsoft-cop-tax-audit-20150408-1mgsma.html
Lenore Taylor has her say on the matter.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/apr/08/google-apple-and-microsoft-defend-tax-set-up-that-shifts-revenue-offshore
Are we headed for “ice rooms”? A worthwhile read.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/forget-the-war-on-drugs-we-need-to-make-ice-uncool-20150408-1mgipa.html
Section 2 . . .
Hockey and Dutton come to the attention of “View from the Street”.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-government-considers-legalising-just-straightup-murdering-detainees-20150408-1mgv8e.html
Joe Hockey – champion of the international tax dodgers.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/joe-hockey-steps-in-to-protect-suspected-tax-dodger-multinationals-from-being-identified-20150408-1mgfix.html
Republican clowns are lining up for a crack at the 2016 Presidential election.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/video/2015/apr/08/republican-2016-election-candidate-clowncar-video
Peter Wicks’ latest contribution on the HSU saga.
http://wixxyleaks.com/castle-of-glass-kathy-jacksons-glass-house-and-the-scandalous-case-against-craig-thomson/
Tony Abbott and his take on anything invisible.
https://newmatilda.com/2015/04/08/tony-abbott-and-his-amazing-take-invisibility
The 27 worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2015/04/08/the-twenty-six-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-236/
The “honour system” under attack in the APS.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/what-makes-time-at-work-worktime-ato-public-servants-told-to-dob-in-workmates-20150408-1mg0yc.html
Why the RBA is sitting on its hands.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/2015/04/07/rba-sitting-hands/
Clive’s not having a good year is he?
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/clive-palmer-loses-high-court-challenge-against-the-carbon-tax-20150408-1mggje.html
Big Brother coming to a Council near you!
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/putting-rubbish-bins-out-early-could-attract-fines-of-up-to-1500-20150408-1mge81.html
Section 3 . . .
Don’t stop there! How about extending this treatment to ratbag religions and cults?
http://www.theage.com.au/national/aussie-organisation-linked-to-antivaccination-campaigner-sherri-tenpenny-has-charity-status-revoked-20150408-1mgo6n.html
A classic effort from Alan Moir.
And brilliant work from Pat Campbell.
Mark Knight gives perspective to Apple’s taxation arrangements.
David Rowe with his usual good work takes us to the Senate inquiry.
Slip sliding slip sliding away, that Labor lead ain’t gonna last to Election Day.
funny how all it takes to get a poll bump is to completely retreat on all your policies, eh?
let’s see if they can deliver a budget this year
Morning all. Extraordinary that Hockey felt the need to protect the privacy of tax dodging foreign corporations. Why? There is no right to privacy over such information. It is not in the national interest to limit debate on a topic that affects the budget so much. Keep digging Senators! The obvious question they should ask is what is the basis for Treasury estimates of the revenue loss?
US corporations have shown a remarkable ability to corrupt US lawmakers and bend them to their will. Have they learnt to do the same trick in Australia already?
ESJ
People say that about the Liberal leaders. Some of the people are Liberal backbenchers.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/apr/08/galilee-basin-coalmines-australian-banks-under-pressure-after-french-lenders-rule-out-funding
[A total of 11 international banks have publicly distanced themselves from the Galilee Basin projects in one form or another, including HSBC, Barclays, Morgan Stanley and Citi.
. . .
None of the “big four” Australian banks – ANZ, CBA, Westpac and NAB – have publicly ruled out funding the Carmichael project and Adani has consistently maintained that it will ensure funding for the mine, which will remove up to 60m tonnes of coal a year for export.]
morning all
Thanks BK and others for today’s offerings.
Abbott still PM and wrecking the joint and yet bludgertrack shows that they have made up ground. How depressment
Lizzie
At current coal prices it is hard to see how the Galilee basin coal projects are profitable…. Unless the State picks up the tab for hundreds of millions of dollars in rail infrastructure costs, that are needed for the mine. The mine should pay for them. It would be public investment in a (foreign owned) private profit. So the economic argument against this mine is as good as the environmental one.
It is Gunns timber mill all over again – a state government meddling in a development that should not happen. Hopefully Paluszczuk will see the right thing to do. Go by the book. Without special treatment Adani and Clive’s mines are finished. The money will employ far more people spent somewhere else.
[Is anyone around???]
Most probably put off by the ‘pile on’ against one particular poster who had the audacity to disagree with the consensus view.
After the brilliant outcome in finding the 11yo boy the other day alive and well. Yesterday afternoon, tragedy struck Here in Melbourne. A car ends up in a suburban lake and three young children died. Another in critical condition. Now that is really depressing.
For anyone interested. Audio of Tony Windsor with Richard Fidler
[Tony Windsor have had three jobs he’s loved: as a farmer; a NSW state parliamentarian, and a member of Federal Parliament.
He’s lived his whole life in the same region of New England where, after his father’s accidental death, he was raised by his ‘extraordinary’ mother.
When the 2010 election produced a hung parliament, it fell to Tony and his fellow independents, Rob Oakeshott and Bob Katter to choose the next government of Australia.
Reflecting on what was achieved in that political term, Tony questions the received wisdom that a strong majority is essential for effective government.]
http://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2015/04/08/4212632.htm
adrian
well, it was good to see you in there defending her, rather than standing idly by deploring it all.
Socrates
As always in these cases, the development of the mine is forecast to produce ‘thousands of jobs’. Then pollies are too afraid to say no. Let’s hope that Anna P stands firm against the Feds and Adani.
Victoria, I listened to that interview yesterday on the podcast. Well worth listening to, I think Fidler is just about the best interviewer around.
Thanks as always BK – that’s a beauty from Rowe. Hockey “am I any colder?”
adrian
Richard Fidler has a nice approach with his guests. He also has the luxury of conducting long interviews. That also helps
Thinking back to ESJ’s slip sliding comment, and looking at William’s long term graph, it is hard to see evidence of a recovery in Abbott’s fortunes aside from this one poll and the Baird election result. More a blip than a slide. Abbott was hidden from view in most of the NSAw campaign and entirely muzzled, so it does not represent a win for him personally. He owes Baird big time.
The question remains, what will the Liberals do in the budget? They must do something to stop the slide in employment, which is a long term trend, not a blip. They also need more revenue, having failed to pass their harsh ideological reforms, and not yet having put up any reasonable ones. Super concessions and international tax dodges are good places to start, but might offend their own wealthy backers. The question is, will Abbott and Hockey find the courage to do what is needed for the nation. We will know within four weeks.
If they do not man up to needed reforms this time, rather than pander to their own ideology, they may well become a one term government. It will be too late to turn around the economy by the 2016 budget.
zoomster, I was out last night and didn’t log on until this morning. We’re not all on this site 24/7.
Still waiting for those links from your son, btw.
Lizzie
True, that will be the line. Starting World War Three would also create thousands of jobs. It would still be a very bad idea.
adrian
I’ve already explained about the links. You’re very impatient, given that.
Good Morning
I see that Hockey is doing his bit to ensure the poll “recovery” for the LNP is a flash in the pan with raising the GST debate about state allocations.
Great way to destroy selling the budget message.
One final topic – oil reserves. This is yet another Federal report released to a contrived set of costings and conveniently timed.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-08/australian-oil-reserves-substandard/6377160
Yes we do not meet our IEA targets for domestic oil reserves to act as a buffer if there is a supply crisis. In fact here in Adelaide we would not have two weeks reserves since Port Stanvac was closed. Should we address this? Yes. But why do it right now, after fifteen years of inactivity? Because they are desperate for revenue and it is an excuse to impose another Howard style tax, sorry levy, to repair the budget hole. Will the new oil tax last till we have adequate reserves? No, it will last till the budget is in surplus again 🙂
Have a good day all.
victoria@14
I have sat back wondering when someone would comment on that.
The cops are not saying much, but it seems like the mother was the driver.
However one looks at it, it is a tragedy. But it is instructive to consider the howls that would already have gone up if it had been a male driver.
In the attitude of the Coalition to pollutants, I am reminded of toddlers who think that if they can’t see you, you’ve disappeared forever. I wonder when Tony and Friends will grow up?
[Overall, the coal industry – particularly mines and power stations in the Hunter and La Trobe valleys, and the Bowen Basin in central Queensland – spewed out 430,000 tonnes of coarse particle pollution which accounted for 47 percent of the nation’s total emissions.
If we add to this toxic soup the fact that gas producing industries are increasing emissions of toxic chemicals such as benzene, nitrous oxide and particulate matter, then the prospect of a corresponding increase in cancer, respiratory and heart diseases looks a distinct reality, with all its implications in terms of health and other costs.]
https://newmatilda.com/2015/04/08/tony-abbott-and-his-amazing-take-invisibility
Bishop ceremony marking 50 years relationship with Singapore on 24 now
Bishop ceremony marking 50 years relationship with Singapore on 24 now
Perhaps everyone else had the decency to not try to make some cheap debating point out of such an awful situation.
bemused @ 26
[it is instructive to consider the howls that would already have gone up if it had been a male driver.]
That’s a bit of a stretch. After the deliberate drowning of his boys by the estranged husband, when at first his story was believed, I, for one, and waiting to learn more about the female driver. Was she on drugs? suicidal? drunk?
and = am
Senator, Peter Whish-Wilson, Greens Party spokesperson for veteran affairs and a graduate of the Australian Defence Force Academy, has succeeded in his motion to have an inquiry held into the mental health of returned services personnel.
25 March 2015: http://peter-whish-wilson.greensmps.org.au/content/media-releases/senate-launch-inquiry-mental-health-returned-service-personnel (includes terms of reference)
[It will specifically look into matters such as the extent of mental ill health and PTSD among veterans and serving personnel, the adequacy of resourcing for support services available and what is required to tackle veterans’ homelessness and suicide.]
Pegasus
Good.
lizzie@32
An edit function would be good, would it not?
:angel:
Peter W-W was interviewed about the inquiry he initiated into the mental health of returned service personnel by Fran Kelly this morning on RN just before 8 am. Link not yet available.
😥
@nicchristensen: News Corp boss grilled over tax allegations, accuses Fairfax of ‘relentless’ attack #CorpTaxInquiry http://t.co/CSH9sp7Jbf
lizzie@31
At the risk of getting into one of those bad or mad debates, I expect we will find out she was suffering depression and was suicidal.
This is a terrible situation as she will now live with the guilt of having killed 3 of her children and when she recovers this will weigh heavily on her.
The point Socrates is the best labor can manage against a very very unpopular PM is 52-53. Given the Libs have decided to dump anything remotely controversial I can’t see that lead lasting until Election Day.
When Australians change govt federally they do it emphatically not marginally. the key variable is the manner of a leadership transition in the libs, if that’s done well you can see a very comfortable liberal majority.
Look at William’s poll tracker – labor has won a bare majority in qld once in 30 years with one k.rudd do you really think they can win qld 12-16 especially once billy starts corroding the state governments standing?
“@KelMayo: Barrie Cassidy from #insiders talks #auspol with @zdaniel on @774melbourne shortly”
Even off the notional seat count on the poll tracker the alp is only 5 seats away from a hung parliament and we know how well that worked last time…..
[33
Pegasus
Senator, Peter Whish-Wilson, Greens Party spokesperson for veteran affairs and a graduate of the Australian Defence Force Academy, has succeeded in his motion to have an inquiry held into the mental health of returned services personnel.]
This is an enormous problem in aboriginal communities as well, where widespread substance abuse, physical and mental health problems, the rates of suicide and imprisonment are all linked together.
Of course we should have an inquiry into the mental well-being of defence personnel. imho, there should be a Royal Commission into mental health and substance abuse in all our communities.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/psychedelic-drugs-as-safe-as-riding-a-bike-or-playing-soccer-and-could-help-solve-addiction-10161432.html
[He said: “The commonality is that addiction and drug abuse have a function which is to escape from stress and difficult emotions like shame, loneliness, fear, guilt or shyness…”]
[The point Socrates is the best labor can manage against a very very unpopular PM is 52-53. Given the Libs have decided to dump anything remotely controversial I can’t see that lead lasting until Election Day.]
Fairly obviously the current poll aggregate is not the best “labor can manage against a very very unpopular PM”. The poll aggregate has been much higher in the recent past and has, indeed been at unprecedented and bad levels for a first term PM.
So what martin b?
The aggregate produced by William seems to be pretty much on the money and is the same approach used by that Nate silver fellow in the states with a similar degree of accuracy.
You can rage against the polls but you can’t deny the laws of mathematics and probability.
“@senatormilne: KPMG “when we make the laws”, that is point. The big 4 advise on tax avoidance of law which they have big hand in “making.” #CorpTaxInquiry”
“So what martin b?”
So you are making deliberately spurious claims.
Lol, how desperate is Edwina StJohn?
Bishop presser now
Four Koalas go to Singapore to go along with that tax revenue