The New South Wales election together with the Easter break have left the big media polls out of the picture recently, with Newspoll taking an extra week off, Ipsos last being heard from in late February, and a full two months having passed since the last result from Galaxy. That means the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is heavily influenced at the moment by Morgan and Essential, together with last week’s result from ReachTEL. This week’s result from Morgan was the Coalition’s best since October, making a full 1.0% of difference on the two-party reading and giving the Coalition a four-seat boost on the seat projection. Newspoll’s quarterly state breakdowns have also been added to the model, which means there’s more movement than usual this week at state level. Labor’s rather excessive projected gains in Queensland have been moderated to the tune of three, and they’re also off one each in New South Wales and Tasmania, while gaining one in Western Australia. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.
Added attractions:
• As I always do after Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns are published, I now offer a full suite of state-level BludgerTrack breakdowns featuring primary vote details and trend charts.
• Seat of the Week is back in new-and-improved form, and will henceforth be published every Wednesday evening concurrently with BludgerTrack. Today’s entry is Corangamite.
• In addition to the state breakdowns highlighted here the other day, The Australian has also published quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by gender and age.
• The Age reports that ReachTEL conducted polling of four marginal seats for United Voice, including a survey of 707 respondents in Eden-Monaro that credited Labor with a lead of 57-43. There was also said to be a “swing to Labor” in Bonner (Queensland), Hindmarsh (South Australia) and Swan (Western Australia), though I’m unclear if that means they were in front. (UPDATE: The West Australian reports the Swan result gives Labor a 54.7-45.3 lead on respondent-allocated preferences, from primary votes of 40.1% Liberal, 37.2% Labor and 10.5% Greens – hat-tip to Leroy Lynch).
lizzie@1092
You should talk to your GP about what vaccinations you should now receive.
At the very least you should be having an annual flu vaccination which is free and a pneumonia vaccination every 5 years.
[1142
Oakeshott Country
So there you have 10+ million dead to get the Hapsburgs out of the Balkans.]
…and to deal with the general consequences of German unification under Prussian leadership, culminating in the Franco-Prussian War of 1870. This disaster – from the French viewpoint – established Franco-German rivalry as the single determining factor in European affairs. This competition prompted the creation of the Franco-Russian alliance in 1894, to be followed by the inclusion of Britain in 1907 and the formation of the Triple Entente. This alliance, clearly aimed at protecting France from Germany, not only made war inevitable but also, almost miraculously, saved France from German invasion at her hour of greatest need.
The creation of this alliance – a reaction to German domination of central Europe and the dissolution of the order created in 1815 at the Congress of Vienna – together with the militarisation of the Prussian monarchy, made the eventual outbreak of Pan-European conflict an historical inevitability.
It is of course essential to see the economic structures and events now evolving in Europe as a primarily Franco-German-Italian reaction to the consequences of the wars they fought in the 18th, 19th and 20th centuries.
I think the BAbbott Kirribili rental thing is indicative of how today’s Liberal party approaches government.
There is no good governance, there is no consideration for taxpayers, or even for transparency. Just a blatant flouting of ‘for the mates or family’ attitude when it comes to our institutions and public finances.
Roger Miller@1123
I would not go near my latest grandchild if I was not vaccinated against whooping cough. Checked with my GP and got the all clear so was able to see her at 1 day old. 😀
wasn’t when m grandkids were born but seems now , my friends who have become grandparents in last few years are “encouraged” to be re vaccinated as medical profession think the vaccinations I had and I guess most of you had have lost their potency
mari@1155
That is certainly the case with whooping cough and knowing that, and not remembering my last vaccination, I made sure I checked with my GP weeks before the birth.
I have zero tolerance for the anti-vaccination gang.
We got vaccinated when our youngest grandchildren were born. Apparently you do need to be boosted if you were vaccinated in the 50s/60s.
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Ipsos Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 46 (-3) ALP 54 (+3) #auspol
9:00 PM – 12 Apr 2015
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Ipsos Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 39 (-3) ALP 38 (+2) GRN 13 (+1) #auspol
9:00 PM – 12 Apr 2015]
(Begin rant)
Re the Renewable Energy Target: a modest goal was agreed, 20%, equivalelent to 41,000 GW p.a. The target had bipartisan support. We have been well on the way to meeting it. Maybe we should be negotiating a higher target.
The Government’s mates don’t like it. The LNP ‘forgot’ to tell us before the last election that they had a problem with the target. Now they want to renege on this deal as they did on Gonski and so many others.
Tough. The target is 41K, not 32, not 33.5. Shorten should tell Abbott to stick it where he sticks his suppository of wisdom.
(End rant)
mari:
Some require a booster. If you’re around kids and unsure of your immunisation, I’d encourage you to see your doc.
Ipsos as all over the shop as Newspoll?
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Ipsos Poll Abbott: Approve 34 (+2) Disapprove 60 (-2) #auspol
9:01 PM – 12 Apr 2015
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Ipsos Poll Shorten: Approve 42 (-1) Disapprove 44 (+1) #auspol
9:01 PM – 12 Apr 2015
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Ipsos Poll Preferred PM: Abbott 38 (-1) Shorten 46 (+2) #auspol
9:02 PM – 12 Apr 2015
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Ipsos Poll Increasing the GST rate: Support 37 Oppose 59 #auspol
9:03 PM – 12 Apr 2015]
Bemused
The anti vaxers will be quaking in their boots when news of your zero tolerance of them gets out!
Seriously, I congratulate you in your foresight. I daresay few prospective grandparents would even think of that.
I will store that away for the future though i think grand parenthood is likely to evade me.
Re LL @1158: I thought a ‘Wow’ about Ispos might be 50-50 or worse (for the Left). But 54-46 is ‘wow’ in a good way.
confessions@1161
But back to what is more ‘understandable’ for a rotten lying government?
The last Ipsos always looked too good for the Libs but it did take the pressure off TAPM.
Well, the Ghost has reported the latest Ipsos Fairfax poll as 54% to 46% to the ALP, so that has shifted back a bit from a month ago.
Now for Newspoll tomorrow, and the leadership war drums to recommence!
Agree Bemused and DavidWh
I worked at Bellingen when whooping cough went through because of the hippies etc not vaccinating their kids as one of my workmates whose neighbor’s child caught it said, the non vaccination crowd should be made to listen to the children, they might learn some sense!
All most two years ago when my daughter was born we had a no vaxx, no visit rule and a poster on the hospital door. My sister and pop could not visit for eight weeks because they did not get the whopping cough shot.
Recently i got tested to check for immunity and found i had no immunity to anything anymore, including chicken pox. $450 dollar later and twelve jabs im protected from the heps, whooping cough and other things.
Its the best money i have spent as i do not have that niggling feeling while around babies or young kids that i may be harbouring a baby killer.
dave:
True.
New Ipsos matches the recent ReachTEL at 54-46, close to the Essential at 53-47. Maybe the Newspoll out soon will be this month’s outlier.
Surprised with ipsos. They seem to lean to coalition. Yet here we are!
This was mentioned on twitter, where it was noted that Shorten has been appearing on ABC news quite often recently, but it’s only to endorse some Government policy or other. Seems that for the ABC, Shorten is only worth airtime if he’s supporting the government.
rossmcg@1163
There had been a bit of publicity at the time about whooping cough so it did nudge me into raising the issue next time I saw the GP.
That was a terribly sad case in Perth and it was obviously caused by some un-vaccinated person carrying the illness, either through neglect or stupidity.
As for me making the anti-vaxxers quake in their boots, I think if I met some and let fly, it might well have that effect.
Confessions
You are right will talk to my doctor next time I see him.
I suppose we won’t be hearing much from TBA for a while.
rummel@1169
Bravo rummel!
I think I am covered for most things. My GP certainly hasn’t mentioned anything I should have.
victoria@1172
Being new to the game, they may have been tuning their sampling technique and are now closer to the mark.
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Ipsos Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 46 (-3) ALP 54 (+3) #auspol
9:00 PM – 12 Apr 2015
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Ipsos Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 39 (-3) ALP 38 (+2) GRN 13 (+1) #auspol
9:00 PM – 12 Apr 2015]
Must be the metadata effect 🙂
But TBA shouldn’t worry Abbott is paying $250 dollars for his daughter to shack up at the best address in Sydney; that should bring a votes in.
There is sure to be someone who cares, one way or the other.
We have had “good government”.
A stage full of flags.
Kinder and gentler.
What is next.
Perhaps they could go back to what they promised at the election; continuation of Labor’s policy. A lot of rot to undo to get there.
briefly:
LOL!
In all seriousness though, as you know, only partisan rusted on voters are going to vote with metadata laws uppermost in their minds.
New thread.
frednk
This tweet from finnigans earlier today was on the money
[Gee, the internal polling must be horrible that Abbott’s daughter had to be trotted out via the Daily Telecrap with this $250 rent rubbish]