BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

Amid a somewhat quiet period for federal polling, an unusually strong showing for the Coalition in Morgan drives a solid shift in their favour on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The New South Wales election together with the Easter break have left the big media polls out of the picture recently, with Newspoll taking an extra week off, Ipsos last being heard from in late February, and a full two months having passed since the last result from Galaxy. That means the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is heavily influenced at the moment by Morgan and Essential, together with last week’s result from ReachTEL. This week’s result from Morgan was the Coalition’s best since October, making a full 1.0% of difference on the two-party reading and giving the Coalition a four-seat boost on the seat projection. Newspoll’s quarterly state breakdowns have also been added to the model, which means there’s more movement than usual this week at state level. Labor’s rather excessive projected gains in Queensland have been moderated to the tune of three, and they’re also off one each in New South Wales and Tasmania, while gaining one in Western Australia. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Added attractions:

• As I always do after Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns are published, I now offer a full suite of state-level BludgerTrack breakdowns featuring primary vote details and trend charts.

• Seat of the Week is back in new-and-improved form, and will henceforth be published every Wednesday evening concurrently with BludgerTrack. Today’s entry is Corangamite.

• In addition to the state breakdowns highlighted here the other day, The Australian has also published quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by gender and age.

• The Age reports that ReachTEL conducted polling of four marginal seats for United Voice, including a survey of 707 respondents in Eden-Monaro that credited Labor with a lead of 57-43. There was also said to be a “swing to Labor” in Bonner (Queensland), Hindmarsh (South Australia) and Swan (Western Australia), though I’m unclear if that means they were in front. (UPDATE: The West Australian reports the Swan result gives Labor a 54.7-45.3 lead on respondent-allocated preferences, from primary votes of 40.1% Liberal, 37.2% Labor and 10.5% Greens – hat-tip to Leroy Lynch).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,184 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  1. Victoria @ 1080

    It also transferred $1.5 billion off the Commonwealth books and onto the Victorian Government books on 30 June 2014 as a (very far in) advance contribution to the cost of building the East West link. It had the effect of adding that amount to what Hockey claimed to be Labor’s debt.

    I don’t think the Commonwealth under any political colour has ever made an infrastructure downpayment that far ahead of the actual build – contracts had not even been completed at that stage. There could be no other purpose in doing this than to poison the books and blame Labor.

  2. ross @ 1095

    [What sort of a country have we become if the family of an accused are targeted for retribution?]

    The following is from the article:

    [Leeton mayor Paul Maytom said he had no concerns about reprisal attacks on the family despite chatter online indicating that some residents in the town of 10,000 were vowing revenge.

    “I’ve heard more people who are concerned about what’s happened with the rest of the family and wondering whether they are being looked after,” he said.

    “People do have concerns for how they’re placed now because they’re also going through the trauma. I would hope there are people helping them through this.”]

    Is it nothing to do with the character of the nation that there could be some violent psychopath (male or female) who fantasises about exacting eye for eye revenge on behalf of the community when they are really only acting out their violent instincts under cover of a tragedy like this. They are the same swastika tattooed thugs who turned up to support the ‘reclaim Australia’ rallies.

  3. I have the twitter tweets retweets etc go through a spam account which I clear each day. Today so far and still pouring in over 800 entries have gone through, a great majority about the Abbott daughter living at KH for $250pw. Have never seen such an article to upset so many people,if the Telegraph thought this was a positive story perhaps they suld think again 😀

  4. Deb

    I got the Salk polio vac way back in 1957. Then I got it again in about 1959 and then I think I got the sabine three more times.

  5. Just saw a clip of Abbott commenting about the vaccine proposal. Come on down another slogan , “No jab , no pay” . Good grief.

  6. [Shobaz Kandola @ShobazKandola · 11m 11 minutes ago
    Dear Anti-vaccers there’s no Aust bill of rights. Stop saying changes r unconstitutional. If you are so sure challenge in High Court #auspol]

  7. A High Court challenge to the tying of government benefits to vaccinations would, presumably, rely on the “vibe” of the thing.

  9. $250 p.w. for sweet digs in Sydney seems like a fair market rate once you account for the fact you have to have Tony Abbott as a housemate a couple of times a month.

  10. My only comment on the news that Tony Abbott is paying $250 per week for his daughter to live at Kirribilli House: how would the Daily Telecrap have handled a revelation of similar arrangements for Kevin Rudd’s daughter, or a hypothetical adult child of Julia Gillard?

  14. Re Abbott’s daughter.

    How much is a fully serviced apartment in North Sydney/Kirribilli?

    There’s your minimum starting point, add to that food and utilities and you’re starting to get close to what she should be paying.

    Even if you were generous and based the calculation on where Abbott’s actual house is, it’s not her fault he’s PM, I would hazard a guess that $250 per week would not come close.

  15. [985
    WeWantPaul

    The duty could be 20-25% of the Commercial Invoice value. Exporters would have to be licenced so that third parties, agents, brokers and dummy shippers and/or buyers could not be used to buy or sell products.

    You are worse than the greens! Iron Ore and Coal would be shut down immediately.]

    The point would be that the turnover tax could be rebated to the extent that income and earnings were reported in this jurisdiction and, accordingly, company tax becomes payable.

    UK Labour have proposed something similar in their jurisdiction to arrest profit-shifting.

    If exporters – or importers for that matter – shift their their margins between jurisdictions to avoid tax, they can pay a Turnover Tax. Maybe 20 % is too high. Maybe it should be set at 30% (the company tax rate) x 25% of revenue (the average profit share of the economy). So the Turnover tax would be 7.5% of sales. To the extent that companies report their profits in this jurisdiction turnover tax would be rebated.

    This would provide a powerful incentive not to shift margins. It may then be possible to lower the average company tax rate.

    If companies failed to report their margins here then it wouldn’t matter. The Treasury would derive a relevant share of the benefit derived from operating in this economy.

    This would probably create new revenue sources of $40 billion pa, of which perhaps at most $10 bill is already captured by company tax. So the Treasury would be at least $30 bill pa to the good. Considering we need to raise an extra $40-50 billion pa to correct the fiscal imbalance, this would be a good start. With changes to -ve gearing, super concessions and a return to nominal income growth, we could run a balanced budget at full employment again.

  17. [teh_drewski

    Posted Sunday, April 12, 2015 at 6:33 pm | Permalink

    $250 p.w. for sweet digs in Sydney seems like a fair market rate once you account for the fact you have to have Tony Abbott as a housemate a couple of times a month.
    ]

    [But it’s a lifestyle choice and we shouldn’t be compensating people for that.]

    I’m sure some public figure made a similar comment recently.
    🙂

  18. markjs 1111

    Thanks for that link. It certainly exposes the lies and deceptions, and the economic incompetence by the Liberals

  19. Re @ 1117

    The last sentence of the intent is mine.

    But it’s a lifestyle choice and we shouldn’t be compensating people for that.

  20. 1115

    My solution to profit shifting would be to remove the corporations tax deductibility of related entities profits. The costs incurred by related entities would still be corporations tax deductible. Thus onus would be on the company to prove the status as an expense rather than a profit. That would pretty-much end profit shifting but it would be rather bureaucratic.

  21. fess

    OH and son just returned from the game. Disappointed losing to Essendon. But they have won back to back premierships and know not to be too greedy. 😀

  22. [ perhaps child care centres should refuse to accept unvaccinated children ]

    Lizzie looks like your right. Its a “price signal” not a mandatory ban. 🙁

    Still, will be interesting to see if it has the effect of causing child care centers to introduce the same regime that kennels do?? I hope so.

  24. [ Come on down another slogan , “No jab , no pay” . Good grief. ]

    I’m not sure that was very well thought out on Abbott’s part though. It sounds like something an unpleasant client would say to a sex worker. 🙁

  25. victoria:

    It’s probably ornery but after the Bombers got off scott free on the Asada stuff, I really want them to have a shit season with as few wins as possible, aka none!

  26. fess

    You are not the only one. Also Hawthorn and Essendon supporters dont like each other very much. So losing against Essendon is a bit hard to take!

  27. I make it a hat trick:

    1. Daughter A works for a certain car maker which is subsequently awarded lucrative government contract for armoured cars.

    2. Daughter B gains a ‘scholarship’ based on all the sort of merit you have when (a) you are ‘C’ average and when you are Abbott’s daughter.

    3. Daughter C gets the best rental deal in Australia for the best digs in Sydney.

    Australia is damned lucky Abbott has only three daughters.

  30. Unvaccinated people should be sent to isolation camps in the Central Desert.

    If they were pigeons, and they represented the same level of epidemiological threat, we would be shooting them.

  32. Is there any chance that the commemoration of ANZAC day will Include significant reflection on WWI being a pointless waste of life caused by the powerplays of the oligarchies of Europe? Or are we just going to here of the sacrifice the diggers gave for our “freedom” and “democracy”?

  35. Boerwar – on the other hand, if Abbot had another 9 daughters all shacked up at Kirribilli, that’d knock a solid $130,000 off his salary. Still wouldn’t be value for money but as he’d tell you himself, every little helps when dealing with that debt and deficit stuff.

  36. OC

    Yes.

    Many of the original Diggers would have regarded this wave of death porn to be (a) ahistorical (b) largely based on bullshit and (c) against their personal wishes.

    They have been co-opted by the statists.

    Ditto the Australian generation that spent most of the 20’s and 30’s half-crazed with PTSD and grief.

    I was told recently that the chief perp at the Conistan Massacre was a Gallipoli veteran.

    It certainly puts a different perspective on understanding the massacre.

  37. [1. Daughter A works for a certain car maker which is subsequently awarded lucrative government contract for armoured cars.]

    I thought ‘Daughter A’ was working for the UN?

  40. briefly

    I sort of keep hoping that there is some sort of deep plan whereby the SYRIZANs and the EU come out of it OK.

    But the SYRIZANs are like the current lot of Venezuelans and the Greens: it all works fine in opposition but once you get your hands on the buttons and levers and switches the whole thing turns into utter shite.

  42. A few years ago the SMH, desparate for classified cash, had a supplement in which readers were encouraged to take out “in memoria” for the war dead. It was a complete fizzer with only a hundred or so ads but one stood out for me.
    It was for an Italian soldier in WWI and the memoraliser, I hope with a strong sense of irony, was grateful that through losing his life the soldier had ensured that Italian was now spoken in Trieste.
    So there you have 10+ million dead to get the Hapsburgs out of the Balkans.

  45. Boerwar:

    Wow that’s the same daughter who is now getting cheap rent in one of Sydney’s most exclusive dwellings.

    Why isn’t Sydney’s private rental market good enough for the PM’s offspring?

  46. I don’t really mind Ms Abbott getting digs with her Olds at $250 per week.

    But leaking it to the Daily ToiletPaper to pretend that the Abbott’s have never had their snouts in the taxpayer funded trough is beyond the pail.

  49. http://www.theage.com.au/national/more-australians-support-an-increase-in-the-gst-20150412-1mje7u.html
    [More Australians support an increase in the GST
    April 13, 2015 – 12:00AM
    Gareth Hutchens and Beau Donelly

    A growing number of voters say they would now support an increase in the rate of the GST, following a year in which the tax has been a simmering political issue.

    The latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll shows a steady rise in support among the general population for a GST hike, with more than one in three Australians now supporting an increase.

    Wealthier Australians are more likely to support a GST hike than those on lower incomes, and Coalition voters are more likely than Labor or Greens supporters to think it is a good idea.

    The rate of GST is currently 10 per cent.

    The Fairfax-Ipsos poll found support for a GST hike among the general population has jumped from 30 per cent to 37 per cent in the last 12 months.

    It continues a steady increase from late 2012, when just 12 per cent of the population supported a GST increase.]

  50. Deputy Editor of SMH Ben Cubby might be having a lend of us. Either way, and IPSOS is pending.

    [
    Ben Cubby
    ‏@bencubby
    Latest Fairfax poll. Wow! #auspol

    ]

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