New South Wales election guide

Introducing the Poll Bludger’s New South Wales election guide, detailing the ins and outs of every one of the state’s 93 lower house electorates.

Yesterday saw the closure of nominations and ballot paper draws for the New South Wales state election, now a little over a fortnight away. As always, the details are neatly summarised by Antony Green. For my part, I’m marking the occasion with the long overdue publication of my seat-by-seat election guide, which goes the whole hog in featuring 2011 booth results maps and charts displaying past results and demographic indicators, together with exhaustively comprehensive write-ups. No doubt there are errors and maybe the odd technical teething problems (for one thing, I will find a way to make the new and old electorate boundaries in the maps appear tidier), which you may call to my attention in comments. With that chore out of the way, you should finally start to see some serious campaign coverage on this blog over the coming fortnight.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

59 comments on “New South Wales election guide”

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  1. Two wishes:

    (a) some individual seat polls to see how the likely 10%+ swing varies;
    (b) the return of NSW specialist poster Eddie Ward.

  2. William – please check the data here. The text on Penrith is badly wrong. The member is Stuart Ayres, not Ben Goldfinch!!

  3. Thank you for the detailed seat by seat guide. Just one minor thing on the list of seats – Willoughby is Sydney North Shore.

  4. I suppose since I don’t have water views in Willoughby, those in neighbouring suburbs to the east who do, think I live on the western fringe

  5. Thanks William, it’s really appreciated.

    FYI, you have the references to Penny and Jenny’s pictures in Newtown back-to-front, or the pics upside-down.

  6. Does anyone know what position the Christian Democrats take on the Pples and Wires semi-privatisation?

    I’m trawling through their website, but it’s hard work.

  7. Great guide as always, Will.

    There’s a copy error on Heffron, which certainly doesn’t overlap with Throsby and Gilmore.

  8. [Does anyone know what position the Christian Democrats take on the Pples and Wires semi-privatisation?]

    No idea, but I do know the local candidates views on Everything Islam™. This is what a bigot looks like:

  9. On a quick glance,Labor does not appear to have drawn particularly well in the most marginal seats; and many of the Labor candidates in these seats seem to be women.

  10. AFter spending a good deal of time perusing the policy sectino of the CDP website *shudder* I managed to find this hidden in the media section:

    “Support a Select Parliamentary Inquiry on leasing poles and wires, energy cost benefits to the community and job protection.”

    Seems that old Fred is hedging his bets on this one.

    Thanks autocat, but I didn’t follow your link. I’ve spent enough time on those sorts of websites today.

    Since this was an actual directive from my boss, I wonder if I’m eligible for danger pay?

  11. Thanks David and LU, corrected.

    Moderate, there are 40,000 words in this thing. This includes, of course, errors. Telling me to “check the data” doesn’t help me very much.

  12. I will be interesting to see how Baird’s grand prix announcement (page one in DT) plays out, particularly amongst the racing enthusiasts. Also relevant is how the long suffering harbour bridge users react.

    Since the announcement has been roundly criticised by the grand prix organisers, he obviously never bothered to consult them.

    Still the promises of money for this and money for that keep coming. I’ve not seen any tally which relates promised expenditure to estimated income from privatisation. Certainly the government’s biggest boosters, Murdoch’s DT and Channel 7 are not keeping one.

    Are Baird and his backers (not to mention individual MPs) worried about the election outcome? Maybe.

  13. Right oh William I had thought you might have got the name of a senior NSW Minister right, wishful thinking perhaps…

  14. Great guide William – one of your best

    Todd Carney is standing in Mulgoa! I hope his incontinence improves before he gets to parliament.
    Although during the bear pits golden era it is alleged that on one night Adolphus Taylor the alcoholic member for Mudgee confused the Speaker’s Chair for a urinal.

  15. Autocrat @10: Your CDP may have anti-Muslim bigotry covered, but our CDP candidate (John Klose in Oxley) has homophobia down to a fine art. He’s big on the Constitution Act of 1900 as it mentions God:

    As far as he’s concerned, marriage equality and adoption rights for same sex couples constitute a “Sodomite uprising”

    and those nasty Labor and Greens MPs who support marriage equality should be disqualified from parliament for treason.

    Where do they find these people?

  16. The local member for Bathurst (with a 23.7% margin) is doing a lot of door knocking. Bathurst city has a history of sticking by local members that put local matters in front of the Party line. Osborne was a National but got a lot of Labor votes, as did Clough and Martin (get a lot of non Labor votes). Berry was a first time politician that took the party line and got dumped quick smart. Toole is increasingly seen as being a party hack and whilst his margin will probably save him, there could be a big swing out of Bathurst.


  17. Olivier – I met him when I was handing out HTV for Sekfy at the 2010 Federal election and we got talking.
    It was his considered opinion that Gays should be stoned (and not in the Marijuana sense)

  18. Does the president of the legislative council get a deliberate vote? I read that he doesn’t get a casting vote. Seeing that the upper house has an even number of members, I wonder how things will go about. We might get a repeat of the Victoria lower house of last term if numbers get pretty close.

  19. Raaraa, don’t believe everything you read.

    Read instead section 22I of the New South Wales Constitution. The President does not have a deliberative vote but does have a casting vote.

  20. OlivierK @ 18: “Where do they find these people?”

    In the USA, they are usually Republicans, and are found in public conveniences, engaging in the sort of behaviour they have so vociferously condemned in the past.

  21. Olivierk @18:

    [Where do they find these people?]

    In public bathrooms, engaging in the same behaviour they deplore in others. All for the purpose of research, of course!

  22. why are they pushing for more and more people in sydney — when they cant solve transportation (esp public)? why spoil a perfectly good messy city

    what happened to decentralisation (back to the future and 1970’s)

    all ‘foreign’ buyers needs to buy 50% in non urban residential –

  23. OAKESHOTT – According to Cyril Pearl, The “Great” John Norton was accused of pissing in the parliamentary chamber and taking his dog into the chamber.

  24. Astounded at the front page of the Daily Toilet Paper, boosting Baird’s plan to hold the Grand Prix in Sydney including multiple crossings by Formula 1 racing cars across the Sydney Harbour Bridge.

    Would be a safe bet that no risk assessment has been done for this.

    The terms “barking mad” and “total bozo” come to mind.

    Baird wants to steal the event from Membourne. Why would he do this now, when he is robbing his fellow Victorian Liberal Government?

    Oh wait …….

  25. K17

    I have also heard this accusation about William Willis the Member for Bourke.
    It would be interesting to know if it ever actually happened.
    Willis, Taylor and Norton were all prodigious alcoholics and with Crick were founders of The Truth. Taylor, Crick and Willis came to sticky ends but Norton made a fortune

  26. J-D@23

    Raaraa, don’t believe everything you read.

    Read instead section 22I of the New South Wales Constitution. The President does not have a deliberative vote but does have a casting vote.

    That’s what you get for relying on Wikipedia. I’ll have to fix that one of these days.

  27. Yes, Citizen @ 14, I also wondered whether Baird has seen some worrying numbers and thought he needed to pull a rabbit out of the hat. I hadn’t thought NSW was going to follow Vic and Qld, but if the Premier feels the need to make such a bizarre announcement I’m starting to wonder.

  28. ESJ, Luke Foley is putting it all over your soft c*ck hero Baird. Bruce Baird was a moderate, his son is not. Mikey stuffed up as treasurer, somehow misplacing $1billion plus, and now with his upgrade is just playing at silly distractions and making promises he won’t keep. And it’s not 49% selloff, more closer to 64%

  29. OAKESHOTT – But none of them, I think, except John Norton, got shot at in Pitt Street after leaving Parliament House and then chased the shooter with a whip!

  30. I think it was the other way around. Norton tried to shoot Meagher who had taken to him with a horsewhip.
    Its an indication of how uneventful this election is that we are discussing events from the Bear Pit from 120 years ago

  31. Of the 20 most marginal seats there for Labor to win from the Liberals and Nats (marginal on figures alone):

    – 11 have male Labor candidates
    – 9 of course have female Labor candidates
    – 10 give Labor the advantage of the donkey vote straight down the ticket (5 male, 5 female).

  32. @ 30 “boosting Baird’s plan to hold the Grand Prix in Sydney including multiple crossings by Formula 1 racing cars across the Sydney Harbour Bridge.” yes indeed I thought Id check the calendar but April 1st is just after election day. I doubt the many hundred thousand motorists using the Labor built bridge daily would be very happy about any closure for any reason. Yep solid strategy Mike keep it up.

  33. @deewhytony and @Keyman – if Baird is reduced to pitching for the revhead bogan vote by promising to bring the F1 circus to Sydney he must have some very worrying party polling. Even his Twitter supporters were non-plussed by this. If he was successful and a road course included the SHB the metro area would be gridlocked for a week at least for every year of the contract.

    I hope that NSW voters remember it was the LNP that foisted the Eastern Creek white elephant on texpayers to cover for Greiner making policy on the run whilst in the commentary box at Bathurst where he was like some poor brain damaged kid bedazzled by all the pretty cars and the brmmm brmmm.

  34. What next you dolt, have lee Rhiannon sign death and detention warrants for anybody deemed to be an enemy of the people?

  35. [Privatisation is hated by swinging voters in western Sydney, who aren’t listening to the Baird Government’s pitch that leasing the electricity network will bring $20 billion for infrastructure including new roads.

    The key strategic question that has emerged for the NSW election is whether Baird’s high personal appeal can hold back the groundswell against privatisation, said Tony Mitchelmore, the managing director of political market research firm Visibility.

    Focus groups conducted for Fairfax Media by Visibility in the second week of the campaign found traffic and road congestion were raised spontaneously by voters as major concerns.]

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