BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor

Despite Labor’s strong headline figure in this week’s Newspoll, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a move in favour of the Coalition, while also correcting a recent downturn in Bill Shorten’s personal ratings.

Last week, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate disappointed Coalition fans by failing to respond much to the morale-boosting poll result the had received from Ipsos. Now it’s Labor supporters’ turn, with a shift to the Coalition recorded despite Labor’s strong two-party result from Newspoll. This reasons for this are that a) BludgerTrack goes off the primary vote, and the numbers provided by Newspoll were scarcely different from those that produced a two-party result of 53-47 a fortnight ago, suggesting that much of that two-point shift came down to rounding, b) numbers added this week for Essential Research and Roy Morgan were both soft for Labor, and c) the very strong results Labor was recording at the time of the leadership spill have now entirely washed out of the system. All of which adds up to a solid move to the Coalition on two-party that brings with it four seats on the seat projection, numbering one each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia.

Newspoll and Essential Research both provided numbers for leadership ratings this week, and they collectively find the Tony Abbott dead cat continuing to bounce, to the extent that he’s nearly back to where he was at his previous all-time low after the budget. A surprisingly sharp deterioration in Bill Shorten’s numbers has also moderated with the addition of the new numbers, returning him to a more familiar position just below parity. The new figures also knock some of the edge off Abbott’s recovery on preferred prime minister. Full details as always on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,662 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor”

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  1. So Ed Husic is a rising talent according to the SMH.
    Based on what exactly? Not sure if he is or isn’t, just seems like another backbencher to me. Would love to know how these journos decide someone is a rising talent or not.
    Reminds of the story of how brisbane league journos, for a laugh, decided to talk up the prospects of a pretty average player and see how far they could take him.
    He was constantly referred to as a “Rising Star”, “future Kangaroo tourist” and “budding champion”.
    Lo and behold he was selected for the end of year kangaroo tour to the UK, didn’t play a game and was never heard of after that.

  2. sohar

    I liked UK cartoonist Steve Bell who always had the Queen referring to Blair as “Tony Blah”. A Bell cartoon of Tony Blah that would also be apt for our Tony. .

  3. [2639

    The fact is that negative gearing is an incentive to private investment in housing.]

    Well…mainly it is used as an incentive to speculate in land. Very little investor demand is directed to new housing. Nearly all of it goes into established housing stock – that is, into “location”.

    Negative gearing and CGT concessions fuel demand in locations that are already built-up and where competition from new supply is least.

  4. Matt, you sound like a simpleton but I will attempt to answer your idiotic questions

    “Why would rent go through the roof now? The widespread abuse of negative gearing is crowding out the housing market and wildly inflating prices. Not only is -that- attacking the poor, it’s also creating a bubble. And given how many people have borrowed against their homes’ (inflated) values, that’s a recipe for economic disaster when the bubble pops, as eventually it must.”

    Because Einstein, with the negative gearing gone the cost of the investment would increase and to make the investment viable the costs would need to be recouped.

    Following so far?

    “And abusing tax loopholes is the only way to do that?”

    It is not a tax loophole you dill, it is legistlation FGS

    “rolls eyes- You’re doing God’s work, huh? Nice meeting you, Mr. Blankfein.”

    roll eyes all you want, fact remains that we live in a mixed capitalist economy where investment and risk are a part of it. Those incentives made the investment more attractive and allowed for the residence to be built thus more supply.

    “You’re in it to make money, not perform a service – don’t cloak yourself in a cloak of fake altruism. And frankly, negative gearing -is- free money. It’s a tax-free investment that’s widely rorted by the rich.”

    No shit Sherlock. Only a moron would invest to make a loss. Maybe you would.
    Does not detract from the fact there are other benefits, but hey don’t let that get in the way of your ignorant rant.

    “Once again – using tax dodges is the only way you can do that? Not only is that lazy investment, on the broader economic scale it’s also locking up capital in non-productive assets, crowding out more productive investments (and making them more expensive than they should be) and generally a Bad Idea.”

    It is not a tax dodge you stupid fool. It is a legal tax deduction that morons and simpletons like you use as a scapegoat.

    And how can the establishment and building of a new building be non productive.

    Just read that you are a commo, lol what a failed ideology for a failed individual.

    I notice the commo countries like China and Vietnam don’t share you 19th century views.


  5. Mis read apparently Matt is not a commo, just a complete fool that deals in idiotic hyperbole and black and white simplicities

  6. We’ve just got back from a day out at Cleland Wildlife Reserve with our little granddaughter. Whils there we got tangled up in the shooting by a US crew of stuff for the TV show Dance Moms. we signed consent forms allowing our images to be shown when the program airs in a few months’ time. We also found ourselves sitting next to the moms and daughters – a more ugly and appalling group of individuals I have never seen. Simply gross.
    We had met up with a lovely young lady visiting from Arizona and it was reassuring to have her as a comparison to demonstrate that Americans are not all like that!

  7. […And, apart from a doddering old dad and an innocent young daughter I have not seen where Hockey has shown others reading it as corrupt..]

    It says something about your character, surely, when those closest to you are quick to jump to conclusions..

  8. I would love to see the graphs on the RHS labelled (titled, whatever). It would make it so much easier to assess their meaning when looking at them with limited screen space.

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