BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor

Despite Labor’s strong headline figure in this week’s Newspoll, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a move in favour of the Coalition, while also correcting a recent downturn in Bill Shorten’s personal ratings.

Last week, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate disappointed Coalition fans by failing to respond much to the morale-boosting poll result the had received from Ipsos. Now it’s Labor supporters’ turn, with a shift to the Coalition recorded despite Labor’s strong two-party result from Newspoll. This reasons for this are that a) BludgerTrack goes off the primary vote, and the numbers provided by Newspoll were scarcely different from those that produced a two-party result of 53-47 a fortnight ago, suggesting that much of that two-point shift came down to rounding, b) numbers added this week for Essential Research and Roy Morgan were both soft for Labor, and c) the very strong results Labor was recording at the time of the leadership spill have now entirely washed out of the system. All of which adds up to a solid move to the Coalition on two-party that brings with it four seats on the seat projection, numbering one each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia.

Newspoll and Essential Research both provided numbers for leadership ratings this week, and they collectively find the Tony Abbott dead cat continuing to bounce, to the extent that he’s nearly back to where he was at his previous all-time low after the budget. A surprisingly sharp deterioration in Bill Shorten’s numbers has also moderated with the addition of the new numbers, returning him to a more familiar position just below parity. The new figures also knock some of the edge off Abbott’s recovery on preferred prime minister. Full details as always on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,662 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor”

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  1. Looking at the trend lines the next couple of weeks will be telling.
    Based on previous periods it will flatten out and bounce around at this level.

  3. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    More trouble at a Liberal incubator!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/scots-college-alleged-assault-police-investigate-allegations-boy-rubbed-genitals-on-another-student-20150311-140utc.html
    Michael Gordon on how Abbott has tied himself up into knots on indigenous welfare.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/tony-abbotts-choice-of-words-on-indigenous-communities-clumsy-insensitive-destructive-20150311-1415s9.html
    Here is an aboriginal perspective on Abbott’s musings.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/remote-communities-arent-a-utopian-lifestyle-choice-but-they-are-good-for-our-people-20150311-1415ji.html
    Even Abbott’s Indigenous Affairs Minister says Abbott made a mess of it.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/11/nigel-scullion-abbott-made-mistake-in-comments-on-indigenous-communities
    Isn’t it just time to outright ban this ridiculous and dangerous rip off that preys upon the sick and credulous? And for private health insurers to remove it (and a few others of similar efficacy) from their benefits structure?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/no-evidence-homeopathy-works-research-council-finds-20150311-1419hw.html
    http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2015/mar/11/homeopathy-not-effective-for-treating-any-condition-australian-report-finds
    It’s time to stop using the NHMRC for ideological purposes.
    https://theconversation.com/time-to-stop-abusing-the-nhmrc-for-ideological-purposes-38151
    A science risk not worth taking.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/ncris-funding-cuts-a-science-risk-thats-not-worth-taking-20150311-140y69.html
    Abbott’s 10 biggest gaffes, clangers and cringeworthy moments.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbotts-10-biggest-gaffes-clangers-and-cringeworthy-moments-20150311-140qnp.html
    Some timely introspection from Turnbull. But is it something else?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-blames-every-government-mp-including-himself-for-failing-to-sell-budget-20150311-141412.html

  4. Section 2 . . .

    Laura Tingle opines that after weeks of constraint Malcolm Turnbull just couldn’t help himself.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/after_weeks_of_restraint_malcolm_Eu8aXISdCXiGG7eQte6p4H
    Stand by for another “death cult” onslaught from Abbott.
    http://www.theage.com.au/world/australian-white-jihadi-teen-jake-bilardi-involved-in-islamic-state-suicide-bombing-report-20150311-141m7i.html
    Fairfax reports on Hockey vs Fairfax.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/joe-hockey-defamation-case-nailed-to-the-cross-did-not-mean-crucify-the-treasurer-court-hears-20150311-141du0.html
    Tim Wilson comes out of the shadows.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/australian-marriage-forum-ad-might-be-distasteful-but-it-should-have-been-screened-20150311-140q3w.html
    Lenore Taylor on the pursuit of Barnaby Joyce over the alteration of Hansard and the potential role of the PM’s office in suppressing testimony to a Senate committee.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/11/pmc-contacted-paul-grimes-a-number-of-times-over-barnaby-joyces-hansard
    An old scholar tells us of life at Knox Grammar and the role of the omnipresent headmaster Ian Patterson. It’s a long and thorough examination.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/11/old-boys-of-knox-grammar-like-me-will-always-be-marked-by-how-close-we-came-to-the-abuse-there
    Here’s something for Dutton to get his teeth into.
    https://newmatilda.com/2015/03/11/fresh-revelations-weaken-scott-morrisons-claims-about-self-harm-coaching-staff-nauru
    The NSW Greens might be on to something here.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015/nsw-state-election-2015-greens-highlight-arms-fairs-20150311-140b7y.html
    Labor plans a different sort of uni reform.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-pledges-to-tackle-uni-dropout-rate-if-elected-20150311-141cf5.html
    Abbott and the UN are still having words.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-gives-twofingered-salute-to-un-censure-over-refugee-detention-20150311-1419ba.html

  5. Section 3 . . .

    Rachel Siewert is proving to be as dumb as an ox on this subject. Her performance at Senate Estimates on this matter in general was simply woeful. She has no idea!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/concern-at-lack-of-screening-of-tuna-after-food-poisoning-scare-20150311-141gag.html
    Paul Sheehan says that the NSW election more than ever will be determined on state issues and that Baird is going to take a big hit – but win.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/bambi-baird-becomes-a-deer-in-the-headlights-20150311-141346.html
    “View from the Street” has been very pointed lately and this is no exception.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-pm-reminds-first-australians-where-they-stand-20150311-141b4d.html
    Good sex is not the exclusive preserve of the young.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/good-sex-not-the-preserve-of-the-young-20150311-140mwq.html
    How to stand up to bullies like Abbott.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/how-to-stand-up-to-bullies-like-tony-abbott-20150311-13yz2c.html
    The real message from Gillian Triggs’ report deserves to be heard.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-real-message-of-the-forgotten-children-report-from-the-australian-human-rights-commission-must-be-heard-20150311-14074e.html
    Stephen Koukoulas asks if Hockey wants to increase house prices even further.
    http://thekouk.com/blog/does-mr-hockey-want-to-inflate-house-prices-further.html
    The 27 worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2015/03/11/the-thirty-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-214-2/
    Is the APS cull nearly over?
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/canberras-public-service-casualty-list-likely-to-peak-at-less-than-6000-20150311-140zlc.html
    Abbott has kicked the women’s ant nest.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/hey-mr-minister-for-women–i-am-woman-hear-me-roar,7470

  6. Section 4 . . .

    Karma lands in South Australia.
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/environment-protection-authority-files-charges-against-khalil-shahin-and-nasmin-pty-ltd-over-hills-waste-dump/story-fni6uo1m-1227259103760
    Mark Latham has penned a good article on anxiety and the industry it has spawned.
    http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/why_anxiety_has_become_so_alarming_yZYn3ZyZr3TufZmyzZcseJ
    The St. James Ethics Centre proposes an oath for politicians.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/the-politicians-pledge-your-chance-to-clean-up-dirty-politics-20150311-140s1q.html
    Alan Moir channels Escher for this sombre contribution.

    David Pope goes to town on Abbott’s “lifestyle choices” comments.

    What superb imagery from David Rowe!

  8. [ Athens threatens to seize German assets ‘as compensation for Nazi war crimes’

    Greece has threatened to seize German assets as compensation for Nazi war crimes – 70 years after the end of the Second World War.

    The threat, made by the Greek justice minister and reported in the daily Kathimerini newspaper, has been supported by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, who told the Greek parliament he would pursue the “very technical and sensitive” matter.

    …The issue was dismissed out of hand by Germany, ]

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/greek-bailout-crisis-athens-threatens-to-seize-german-assets-as-compensation-for-nazi-war-crimes-10101329.html

  9. Oh dear

    [fishing boats that the Australian government will use to turn back asylum seekers are unseaworthy and ethically wrong to use, marine sources in Darwin say.

    A government official and a local fisher say they were shocked at the building standards of the 20-metre green, blue and red fishing boats that will replace the garish orange lifeboats that were deemed “unsinkable”.

    “The first boat the shipyard launched sunk, and it had to be retrieved with a crane,” the government worker said.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/vietnamese-boats-unseaworthy-government-sources-say-20150311-1411bi.html

  13. Ah, Malcolm. I don’t know whether it’s chutzpah or a lack of self awareness..

    [Malcolm Turnbull says the federal government’s biggest misstep was failing to make the case for a tough first budget, blaming every member of the government including himself for not doing a good enough job.]

    Fair enough, although it’s the old assumption – nothing wrong with the package, it’s the way we sold it.

    However…

    [And the former opposition leader, who many in and outside the Liberal Party regard as Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s chief undeclared leadership rival, cited his own reforms of Australia Post and the National Broadband Network as examples of how to handle make a case for change.]

    So Malcolm’s saying everyone stuffed up, including himself, but if they’d all followed HIS example, then there wouldn’t have been a stuff up. So really, he didn’t stuff up at all, but has handled his portfolio with a brilliance denied to other Ministers…

    We’ll just ignore the fact that his handling of the NBN has got every techhead in the Universe frothing at the mouth (I include here my sons and their nerdy friends) and that Malcolm’s reforms of Australia Post have incited as much ridicule and disbelief as any other budget measure that has been backflipped on recently.

    [We – and I include myself and every member of the government in this criticism – did not do a good enough job in explaining the scale of the fiscal problem the nation faces, and the urgency of taking corrective action.]

    Sorry, what? I thought “Labor debt bad” was one of the key messages leading up to the prior two elections. The urgency of taking corrective action was rather dulled by the fact that no one in the new government seemed to want to – and, moreover, promptly added to the debt themselves.

    [..soon after becoming Communications Minister he had asked Australia Post’s chief executive Ahmed Fahour “to lay out the truth about its letters business in public, loudly and repeatedly and they did so”.

    “So last week when we announced radical changes (stamp prices to rise to $1 and delivery times to slow down by two days) there was broad acceptance, despite the pain involved.” ]

    Oh, cough, Malcolm. Broad acceptance by whom, exactly? The media? People who don’t actually use Australia Post?

    The changes haven’t come in yet. Given the government’s recent efforts, it’s likely that most of those likely to be affected by the changes either don’t know about them or think that they’re not going to be implemented.

    Interestingly, most of the general public who still use snail mail are pensioners.

    [Mr Turnbull said once an issue was explained often enough and “people understand there is a genuine problem and ‘something’ must be done, you can have an intelligent discussion about what that something might be – and just as importantly, your opponents will face public pressure to come up with their own ‘something’ if they are not prepared to support yours”.]

    Nothing I’ve read on how Turnbull handled the NBN suggests that there has been an intelligent discussion on the issue. His opponents came up with their own something – a thing called optical fibre – and Malcolm still refuses to listen.

  15. abbott as his first target, re his grog binge during the GFC debates ?

    [ Public Service Commissioner John Lloyd has signalled war against sickies, underperformers and red tape….

    “There are all these anecdotal stories about people in Canberra taking hangover days, then they share a flat with someone who takes a carer’s day to look after them,” Mr Lloyd said.

    He urged bosses to ask public servants more questions about why staff were taking sick leave as a way to reduce the concerning level of unscheduled absences and said managers could sometimes be part of the problem. ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/public-service-commissioner-john-lloyd-on-the-attack-launches-into-underperformers-red-tape-and-leak-20150311-140p87.html

  17. The Victorian voters were told by Abbott himself that the election was a referendum on the E-W Link. We rejected it.

    Now he tries to bully Andrews into giving in. Go Daniel!

  18. Repeated from the previous thread last night:

    Abbott writes to the Victorian Premier claiming ten plagues will descend on Victoria and Australia over cancellation of the East-West tunnel contract. Andrews pulls no punches in his reply. Both letters are reproduced in full, no doubt released by Andrews.

    “Be assured we will take more care getting Victorians out of the disastrous East West deal than the former Liberal state government took getting us into it,” Mr Andrews wrote.

    “I look forward to working with you on important infrastructure projects, but no amount of hysteria or attempted bullying or blatant politicking will change the result of the 2014 Victorian election.”

    Mr Andrews also referred to the fact the Prime Minister had described last year’s state election as a “referendum” on the East West Link.

    “While I note you have broken significant election promises, including savage cuts to health and education and changes to the aged pension, my government will be one that honours its election commitments in full,” Mr Andrews wrote.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-11/pm-and-vic-premier-heading-for-a-showdown-over-ewl-contract/6304796

  20. BK

    That business with Joyce altering/not altering Hansard (Hansardgate?) has all the hallmarks of Watergate. It’s not the crime that gets ’em, it’s the cover up that does it.

  30. BK
    And neither should they. They seem to have won the lottery on this one, all at the same time that Hockey is self-destructing in court. Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd would’ve been over the moon if either of these two events had happened on their watch.

    The beauty of both of them is that they are both completely self inflicted. They weren’t tricked into these debacles, they both dived head first into them.

    I’m now waiting for the shops to open so I czn stack up on popcorn ;wink:

  33. Sacred trust? Pyne’s sanctimonious squawkings are repulsive in the light of his attitude to Labor.

    [Pyne said the Coalition, in framing its first budget, decided “it was better in every way to have a package of reforms” than to simply make cuts.

    “We have taken seriously our sacred trust to serve the national interest as best we could in changing circumstances,” he said.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/11/christopher-pyne-blames-labor-for-education-reforms-surprise

  36. I do not wish to live surrounded by all these busybodies. It seems that thinking for oneself will go out of fashion.

    [We may find ourselves interacting with thousands of little objects around us on a daily basis, each collecting seemingly innocuous bits of data 24/7, information these things will report to the cloud, where it will be processed, correlated, and reviewed. Your smart watch will reveal your lack of exercise to your health insurance company, your car will tell your insurer of your frequent speeding, and your dustbin will tell your local council that you are not following local recycling regulations. This is the “internet of stool pigeons”, and though it may sound far-fetched, it’s already happening. Progressive, one of the largest US auto insurance companies, offers discounted personalised rates based on your driving habits. “The better you drive, the more you can save,” according to its advertising. All drivers need to do to receive the lower pricing is agree to the installation of Progressive’s Snapshot black-box technology in their cars and to having their braking, acceleration and mileage persistently tracked.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/mar/11/internet-of-things-hacked-online-perils-future

  38. Sceptic

    I am referring to Andrews response yesterday. I have heard several reports on the ABC this morning that Abbott has ramped up his attacks on Andrews to build east west. The ABC has played audio of Abbott reiterating his position, but not quoting what Andrews said in his letter in reply

  39. Morning all. Thanks BK for today’s links, but cartoons aren’t working again for some reason.

    [The release today of the long-awaited NHMRC Statement and Advice on Homeopathy is just the latest in a series of pointless and ideologically motivated exercises that this peak scientific body has been tasked to undertake.

    We have seen this group of professional scientists sent on wild goose chases after Wind Turbine Syndrome, water fluoridation and now homeopathy on behalf of a government that clearly wants science to be done to order for its political agenda. At a time when they are holding valuable, productive and world-class research infrastructure hostage to their unpopular higher education legislation, it is simply impossible to believe that the federal government takes science seriously at all.]

    I wonder how Ian Chubb is feeling about this bastardisation of our science/research bodies. And like the writer in the Conversation notes, you can’t help but think that next on the agenda will be immunisation/vaccination!

  40. lizzie

    to be fair, these are all opt in schemes – if you don’t want cheaper car insurance, you don’t have to install the technology, for example.

  42. http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/abbott-claims-victorias-east-west-link-reversal-will-hurt-australias-reputation-as-a-safe-place-to-invest-20150311-141hzj.html

    [Tony Abbott has pleaded with the state government to build the East West Link, claiming any move to dump the contract for the controversial road would hurt Australia’s international reputation as a safe place to invest.

    In an emailed letter to Premier Daniel Andrews, immediately leaked to the media after being sent this afternoon, the Prime Minister warns Victoria’s treatment of the East West Link project “risks setting a dangerous precedent” that could jeopardise private sector investment not only in Victoria but across the nation.]

  44. [Your smart watch will reveal your lack of exercise to your health insurance company]

    I was recently given a new work mobile, but I noticed while playing with it the other day that it tracks the number of steps I’ve walked each day (aggregating to weekly, monthly and yearly), plus the total number of kms I’ve walked and steps I’ve climbed. I’ve no idea where this information goes, or how to disable the function on the phone!

  46. ‘Fess – its probably just an app.

    Look at your apps and the name will probably give it away – pedometer or step counter etc.

  48. Credlin still bullying coalition MPs behind the scenes it would appear.

    [According to two sources Credlin wrote to Parry that she had been told he had criticised her at a state executive meeting, which she was sure wasn’t true, and also that journalists were querying why there were so many Tasmanians in senior positions.

    Another source said she had told Parry journalists had asked about rumours he was being challenged for the Senate presidency.

    Perhaps Credlin was simply relaying media inquiries; however, fellow Liberals who subsequently became aware of the text, even those without Parry’s years of training as a copper, arrived at the same conclusion as him: it was a thinly veiled threat.

    As well as Parry, fellow Tasmanians Eric Abetz and David Bushby hold the positions of government leader and whip respectively in the upper house. In the parliamentary hierarchy, Parry ranks equal second with House of Representatives Speaker Bronwyn Bishop, after the Prime Minister. Parry’s job is not the gift of the leader, so he is unlikely to meet the same fate as ­Philip Ruddock; however, the text showed party tensions not only smoulder, they are being stoked.

    Parry refused to respond to my queries about the Credlin text. His office said he was “unavailable for comment”. The Prime Minister’s office also refused to comment. However, news of it will not go down well with MPs who have complained to Abbott about his chief of staff.]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/credlins-message-makes-clear-little-has-changed/story-fnahw9xv-1227258989319

  49. I do wonder, however, what kind of reviews advertisers do on the effectiveness of marketing to people based on their search history.

    For example, my recent trip to China, in their winter, was a one off, specifically to attend an event that only ever happens in China’s winter. The idea was that any subsequent visits to China will thus NOT be in winter.

    The bulk of my purchases tended to be one offs or long term – thermal underwear, a special coat with hidden pockets, a backback, a camera, etc.

    I may be in the market for some of them one day, but it won’t be for years.

    So what’s the point of ebay (for example) notifying me that a camera similar to the one I’ve just bought is now being advertised on line? Or Target telling me there’s a great deal on thermal underwear?

    Let alone the various hotel sites informing me that there’s a great deal on a hotel in Harbin at the moment.

    I’m sure their targetting will improve, but at the moment it’s fairly hit and miss.

  50. dave:

    If it’s an app it’s a pre-loaded one, cause work doesn’t allow you to download apps to work mobiles, and has removed the more common ones like Facebook.

    I’ve never before had a mobile that does this, so it kind of shocked me!

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