BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor

Despite Labor’s strong headline figure in this week’s Newspoll, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a move in favour of the Coalition, while also correcting a recent downturn in Bill Shorten’s personal ratings.

Last week, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate disappointed Coalition fans by failing to respond much to the morale-boosting poll result the had received from Ipsos. Now it’s Labor supporters’ turn, with a shift to the Coalition recorded despite Labor’s strong two-party result from Newspoll. This reasons for this are that a) BludgerTrack goes off the primary vote, and the numbers provided by Newspoll were scarcely different from those that produced a two-party result of 53-47 a fortnight ago, suggesting that much of that two-point shift came down to rounding, b) numbers added this week for Essential Research and Roy Morgan were both soft for Labor, and c) the very strong results Labor was recording at the time of the leadership spill have now entirely washed out of the system. All of which adds up to a solid move to the Coalition on two-party that brings with it four seats on the seat projection, numbering one each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia.

Newspoll and Essential Research both provided numbers for leadership ratings this week, and they collectively find the Tony Abbott dead cat continuing to bounce, to the extent that he’s nearly back to where he was at his previous all-time low after the budget. A surprisingly sharp deterioration in Bill Shorten’s numbers has also moderated with the addition of the new numbers, returning him to a more familiar position just below parity. The new figures also knock some of the edge off Abbott’s recovery on preferred prime minister. Full details as always on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,662 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor”

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  1. Big Tobacco don’t miss a trick –

    [ One in four of the {UK} MPs who voted against introducing plain cigarette packaging today have declared links to tobacco industries in the past, analysis has shown.

    At least seven further MPs who abstained on the vote have also accepted gifts and hospitality from tobacco firms since 2008, including Philip Hammond, the foreign secretary.

    A majority of 254 voted in favour of the controversial measure, which will take affect from May next year.

    But eyebrows were raised by the size of the rebellion on the Conservative benches, with a majority of Tory MPs defying the government’s position by either opposing or abstaining on the vote. A total of 181 Tory MPs failed to support the introduction of unbranded packaging, backed by David Cameron.

    An analysis of the Register of Members’ Financial Interests revealed that out of the 104 Tories who voted against, 22 have received hospitality tickets from tobacco firms and another – the former Cabinet minister Ken Clarke – is a former director of British American Tobacco.

    Two of the three Labour MPs who opposed the measure also have declared tickets donated by Japan Tobacco International, which owns Benson & Hedges and Silk Cut cigarettes. ]

  2. zoomster
    Sometimes the little gnomes who try to guess what you want to buy can be amusing. I was researching “dogs that don’t shed hair” last week, and promptly received adverts for Bunnings and other sheds and Men’s Shed.

  3. lizzie@53

    Sometimes the little gnomes who try to guess what you want to buy can be amusing. I was researching “dogs that don’t shed hair” last week, and promptly received adverts for Bunnings and other sheds and Men’s Shed.

    Some bloke I had a disagreement with once snarkily emailed me to ask if I knew that my website had ads for pornography and sex tours.

    I had a great deal of pleasure in telling him that google serves up ads based on your past browsing history.

  4. I largely do not get adds any more, thanks to add blocker BUT in the last three days I allowed my daughter in law to install skype and copped a load of rubbish and also i foolishly clicked on an awards scheme – from a “reliable” source and copped more.

    Now when I could not open the cartoons this morning i blamed my system and have now deleted hopefully the garbage.

  5. Good Morning

    On smart watches. This is due to the Apple Watch the mainstream media has woken up. Apple encrypts its data. Has put systems in place to protect privacy and is making that a selling point for its products.

    I think the focus on this is good if a little late. Too many people don’t understand how much privacy they give up for convenience.

    A classic example is the users of Facebook. A company whose founder does not believe there is any privacy with all the problems uses have found with privacy settings as a result of that basic philosophy.

    Google is a serial offender as it uses all the data collected for advertising.

    There are many more examples. Hopefully articles like the one the Guardian has published will get people demanding legislation to restrict the companies collecting information on users that the companies do not really need to operate their services.

    People don’t regard their privacy seriously online because its not a convenient issue and they do not realise the consequences and because the price of doing so would make the internet unworkable for most.

  6. I just received an email from a friend who has moved to centre of Ballarat. She says they have no internet and are ‘waiting for Broadband’. Don’t like to tell her it might be a long wait.

  7. dave
    I see that SYRIZA is hell-bent on winning friends and influencing the germans.

    It is if they can’t wait for der Tag.

    Maybe they just want to be kicked out and not be blamed for it?

    It is difficult to comprehend their behaviour.

  8. “@ABCNews24: Coming up: Oppn Leader Bill Shorten & Assist. Minister for Education Simon Birmingham to speak on #auspol & #education”

  9. BK, re your failing links…

    The entire link is not being captured by the PB engine.

    Let me try the Pope link that didn’t work:

    [ David Pope goes to town on Abbott’s “lifestyle choices” comments.

  10. Re. Comment #67… there you go. I definitely posted the entire link, but it was truncated when it got to the end of the dusplay line.

    Over to the hamsters at PB to fix.

  11. confessions:
    If it’s an iPhone – HealthKit is installed and cannot be removed. HealthKit is designed to talk with the Apple Watch, but also records your steps.
    To stop tracking – Go to Settings – Privacy – Motion & Fitness and turn off Fitness Tracking

  12. Ah finally ABC reports on Andrews response to Abbott including audio. Turns out Premier Andrews was interviewed this morning on fairfax radio here ie 3aw

  13. BCassidy just concluded his segment with Jon Faine on ABC radio. Was pretty useless as usual. He did say that the govt instead of preparing the ground for the budget, they have wasted the week on thought bubble re superannuation etc. made no mention of Hockey being tied up in a defamation hearing

  14. victoria:

    As per the link I posted on the previous page, Niki Savva concludes her article as follows:

    [Again, only partly through force of circumstance, although the government decided on the Intergenerational Report release date, the timing was off, the strategy cockeyed. Joe Hockey released it, spent a couple of days selling it, then threw in the super thought bubble that made it go pffft — a bit like the polls. Then he was tied up for another few days in the witness box in his defamation suit against Fairfax — a court case that he knew was coming up and that was bound to be a diversion.

    The budget is only eight weeks away, with few signs of how the various contradictions can be properly reconciled. The lack of coherent, consistent, credible messaging has been a hallmark of this administration. The position of the Prime Minister and the Coalition remains parlous. Time to pull it together is fast running out.]

  15. lizzie at 58

    [I just received an email from a friend who has moved to centre of Ballarat. She says they have no internet and are ‘waiting for Broadband’. Don’t like to tell her it might be a long wait.]

    Sounds like Ballarat is still in set mode for Dr Blake’s Murder Mysteries. Maybe Abbott and Turnbull think that program is a contemporary drama of rural lifestyle choices.

  16. Confessions”

    The big loophole in Apple’s promise of privacy of your data is with third party apps. You sign up to a third party app that is useful in using the data in Healthkit their is probably in terms and conditions a condition you give consent for the App developers to share information.

    This happens with other areas. For example the swiftkey keyboard for Iphone to work cap;tures your keystrokes.

    So if you want to keep your privacy and use Healthkit do not sign up to third party apps.

  17. Dave and BW

    Why do you think the Greeks are doing this? Now and not at the start?

    Note this is not Syriza but a court saying the government can do so.

    If the government goes ahead it’s telling the Germans here is a cost of default.

  18. Poroti,


    @67+68 both links worked fine for me.]

    Me = dummkopf!

    I didn’t even try them I just saw them truncated and assumed they wouldn’t work.

    Everytime you set yourself up as an expert on anything, you come a cropper.

  19. guytaur:

    Being a work mobile I don’t have any choice about what apps are pre-loaded onto it, nor do I have the option to download apps of my choosing.

    My personal mobile is another matter.

  20. The TPP is less about free trade, and more about trade restrictions that advantage foreign companies.

    Australian business not sounding keen: let alone the rest of us, who want our democratic institutions to be able make decisions about health regulations etc without getting sued.

    Chuck it in the bin RObb. Its a complete dog. You’re only selling your country out with this deal.

  21. Confessions

    That does raise an interesting point a union lawyer should look at. How much can an employer load onto a phone that invades your privacy.

    That is by signing up to work directed apps you are being intimidated by not being able to work into signing away privacy.

  22. lizzie:

    I doubt it, but trying phylactella’s advice above to turn off the health tracking, and there is no way to turn it off.

  23. I have a friend I went to school with who is a Brigidine Nun and she just got a letter published in the SMH criticising Tony Abbott.

    Good on her!

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