BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor

Despite Labor’s strong headline figure in this week’s Newspoll, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a move in favour of the Coalition, while also correcting a recent downturn in Bill Shorten’s personal ratings.

Last week, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate disappointed Coalition fans by failing to respond much to the morale-boosting poll result the had received from Ipsos. Now it’s Labor supporters’ turn, with a shift to the Coalition recorded despite Labor’s strong two-party result from Newspoll. This reasons for this are that a) BludgerTrack goes off the primary vote, and the numbers provided by Newspoll were scarcely different from those that produced a two-party result of 53-47 a fortnight ago, suggesting that much of that two-point shift came down to rounding, b) numbers added this week for Essential Research and Roy Morgan were both soft for Labor, and c) the very strong results Labor was recording at the time of the leadership spill have now entirely washed out of the system. All of which adds up to a solid move to the Coalition on two-party that brings with it four seats on the seat projection, numbering one each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia.

Newspoll and Essential Research both provided numbers for leadership ratings this week, and they collectively find the Tony Abbott dead cat continuing to bounce, to the extent that he’s nearly back to where he was at his previous all-time low after the budget. A surprisingly sharp deterioration in Bill Shorten’s numbers has also moderated with the addition of the new numbers, returning him to a more familiar position just below parity. The new figures also knock some of the edge off Abbott’s recovery on preferred prime minister. Full details as always on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,662 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor”

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  1. How unsurprisement

    [@PaulBongiorno on #ABC702 radio just said he was told that #StuntBoy Abbott’s “gaffe” on #lifestylechoice was to win back WA #libspill MPs]

  3. Watching an interesting Catalyst episode, detailing how the majority of birds in the world – songbirds, pigeons, parrots – evolved in Australia.

  4. guytaur

    Yep. Those who believe that Shorten ought to be more aggressive are most likely not genuine supporters of team Labor.
    The idea that Albo would have been better is ridicullous.

  8. I have never known Barry Cassidy to make an intelligent statement, so I’m not surprised to hear that he never made one this morning.

  11. Re Confessions @106: Luke Foley would seem to have as strong a case against Newscrap as Joe Hockey has against Fairfax, should he wish to go that route. Not that I think he should.

  12. From the Numptyville Files:

    [WA Government backbencher Peter Abetz has warned parents and Liberal colleagues that an anti-bullying program being prepared for WA is actually a “gay lifestyle promotion program”.

    Mr Abetz, an ordained former pastor in the Christian Reformed Church, said he believed encouraging teenagers to self-identify as gay, lesbian or transgender could be harmful in the long term.]
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/26604464/mp-sees-gay-plot-in-anti-bully-scheme/

  14. Vic

    Yep, the WA party vote of a dozen or more is a unified bundle under JBishop’s control.

    Their votes delivered leadership to Nelson then Turnbull then Abbott, n Deppityship to her 3 times.

    Imagine the effect on Abbott’s 1 vote win in 2009 if the WA votes had not gone to him. He’d have lost by approx 54-29 ish.

  16. zoom and lizzie

    Its interesting reading Noah and the Ark stuff from the OT knowing that the bird he released first to see if the earth was dry was a crow – an Australian crow – cos crows evolved in Oz.
    My source for that is Simpson and Day citing the DNA work of Sibley and Ahlquist.

  20. fredex@116

    zoom and lizzie

    Its interesting reading Noah and the Ark stuff from the OT knowing that the bird he released first to see if the earth was dry was a crow – an Australian crow – cos crows evolved in Oz.
    My source for that is Simpson and Day citing the DNA work of Sibley and Ahlquist.

    I think all the passerines (perching birds, songbirds) evolved in Oz first.

  25. Boerwar @ 61

    So, this is why I am getting ads for the Parthenon Café?

    They say of the Acropolis, where the Parthenon is, that there are no straight lines.

  26. Victoria @ 100

    [@PaulBongiorno on #ABC702 radio just said he was told that #StuntBoy Abbott’s “gaffe” on #lifestylechoice was to win back WA #libspill MPs]

    So, in order to hold onto a few caucus votes Abbott reinforces the general public view of a fool who shoves his foot in his mouth. Good to see that he still can hold on to his base as his party heads the way of electoral disaster.

    This rather ties in with the Albanese v Shorten as leader debate that you commented on. Personally I like Albanese more. But Shorten being measured and, if anything, boring is just the right approach to win back those voters who will decide the next election that what you see in Opposition is what you get in power.

  30. TPOF

    I too personally like Albo more than Shorten, but I always felt that Albo was not the type of leader required to counter Abbott and Co

  31. vic

    i am not sure it is true in your case but one sense that many opinions on labor leaders on PB are influenced by union affiliation of some contributors – this was esp. case with Gillard vs Rudd and could play out with shorten now. unfortunately i have to disagree – albanese has more charisma, theatricality, fluency and sincerity that Shorten – all these would play out the electorate generally – if shorten is so much better why are so labor supporters many still questioning and worried about him as leader … shorten won due to union/mp support – a democratic vote of members would see albanese there – am not sure what to conclude cheer

  32. Vic & MTBW

    Albo is the better choice for political tragics, which the majority of Australians ain’t , otherwise that would have voted for big ears & dumbo in the first place

  33. Vic 121,

    Yes, I would have preferred Albo, but Shorten has done well. It would still be interesting to see how Albo’s “I like fighting Tories” attitude would go against the punch-drunk Abbott.

    The thing about Shorten is that he flies under the radar, which can be frustrating for ALP supporters, but is probably more effective. The political adage goes “never interrupt an opponent who is putting their foot in their mouth”. With Abbott that is a constant.

  34. Remember Albo’s mantra during govt was to fight the tories. Whilst it was passionate and good for us Labor folk, it did not endear him to those who are not rusted on Labor

  35. Victoria

    For me the jury is still out on Shorten. Albo would probably have been a better choice for opposition leader IF the Liberals were a sane government. If you have a sane rational government a feisty, straight talking, funny guy does best. However against Abbott, Shorten’s calm, do little, approach is just the thing.

    If either bishop or Turnbull were leader, Shorten would need to change approach in a hurry. The debate would HAVE to switch to policy and explaining that policy. Not sure about Morrison. Shorten may do well against him – calm versus cruel.

  39. I met Albo once. Although I was the candidate, he totally ignored me.

    The first time I met Bill, on the other hand, he could not only pronounce my name correctly, but he thanked me for my work (and made it obvious he knew exactly what I’d been doing).

    There may be something in the ‘we’re Victorians’ approach – Victoria Labor isn’t very like NSW Labor. Not so much biffo, a more quiet approach (fewer ‘colourful characters’) – and far less corruption.

    (When I was at the National Women’s conference, an ex Victorian MP I know well was there, obviously just to stir up some trouble. She started up in one forum – and a NSW delegate strode up to her, wrested the microphone from her hands, and said, “I think you’ve had enough say now”.

    The Victorian delegation muttered “So NSW” — but sometimes I think we need a bit more of that!)

    I’d say more practical as well – Albo’s ‘my job is to fight Tories’ doesn’t sit well with me. I want my MPs to have a wider focus than just that.

  40. mtbw

    I am under no illusion about those on the Labor side. They all are players for their own motives and agendas. They are on the whole just more better than those on the liberal side of the ledger

  41. [one sense that many opinions on labor leaders on PB are influenced by union affiliation of some contributors – this was esp. case with Gillard vs Rudd..]

    As I have no union affiliations, this should mean that my contributions carry greater weight.

  42. victoria

    As I said different. Albo would have been a good leader I have no doubt. Would he have won over voters I think yes he would.

    Its still team Labor with Labor policies that Albo works with.

    Winning over uncommitted voters not a problem. Its how many/
    Thats in what if world and we will never know.

    I understand why MTBW called out the ridiculous bit. It was not ridiculous to all those Labor members who voted for him.

  43. Rudd’s comeback attempts were orchestrated from Albo’s office – apparently, however, Albo just sat there and watched.

    If Ruddick was sacked because he didn’t know what was going on, Gillard should have removed Albo – who did know what was going on, but did not fulfill the duty of his role and either inform the leader or squash the plotting.

    Gillard was too soft on people like Albo, which was one of her big political failings.

  45. Shorten’s real test will be against Bishop, Turnbull or Morrison.

    Currently it is like pitting Cassius Clay against Mr Bean.

  46. …also remember that Shorten did not punish those MPs who didn’t vote for him, whereas Albo (or at least his faction, where one would expect he holds some influence) did.

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