BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor

Despite Labor’s strong headline figure in this week’s Newspoll, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a move in favour of the Coalition, while also correcting a recent downturn in Bill Shorten’s personal ratings.

Last week, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate disappointed Coalition fans by failing to respond much to the morale-boosting poll result the had received from Ipsos. Now it’s Labor supporters’ turn, with a shift to the Coalition recorded despite Labor’s strong two-party result from Newspoll. This reasons for this are that a) BludgerTrack goes off the primary vote, and the numbers provided by Newspoll were scarcely different from those that produced a two-party result of 53-47 a fortnight ago, suggesting that much of that two-point shift came down to rounding, b) numbers added this week for Essential Research and Roy Morgan were both soft for Labor, and c) the very strong results Labor was recording at the time of the leadership spill have now entirely washed out of the system. All of which adds up to a solid move to the Coalition on two-party that brings with it four seats on the seat projection, numbering one each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia.

Newspoll and Essential Research both provided numbers for leadership ratings this week, and they collectively find the Tony Abbott dead cat continuing to bounce, to the extent that he’s nearly back to where he was at his previous all-time low after the budget. A surprisingly sharp deterioration in Bill Shorten’s numbers has also moderated with the addition of the new numbers, returning him to a more familiar position just below parity. The new figures also knock some of the edge off Abbott’s recovery on preferred prime minister. Full details as always on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,662 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor”

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  1. Zoomster

    Just as Gillard’s arrival was orchestrated out of Shorten’s office.

    It is the ALP. Shit happens. They are ALL players and tricksters, which is why they are in politics. The key is whether you do it with justice, honourable purpose, kindness and a good eye to political ramifications.

  6. MTBW

    [Shorten carries too much baggage from the removal of two Prime Ministers.]

    95% of the voting public either don’t know this or don’t care.

  7. victoria

    You do not know you are guessing. The on way to know is to have Albo as leader.

    It is that simple. Albo would be a better leader than John Howard, Peter Costello Malcolm Turnbull, Tony Abbott.

    That much we can say with confidence. So lets stop the silly what if’s and self justification of a decision that is done and dusted and concentrate on reality that Shorten IS leader and IS doing well.

  8. I love Albo ..and originally was going to vote for him in the leadership ballot..

    However, I decided on Bill Shorten because I think his measured & less combative style is the perfect foil for Abbott who would pick a fight in a nunnery..

    Albo is now free to act as an intelligent ‘attack dog’ which I think he does very well ..using humour as well as reasoned, factually based argument..

    I was also convinced Shorten is a strategic thinker ..ironically confirmed when he supported Rudd in the dying days of Labor’s last term. I’d already formed the view that he could successfully negotiate complex issues with a number of competing stakeholders with his excellent work on the NDIS..

    They are both high quality individuals & skilful politicians ..and I challenge any genuine Labor supporter to criticise a 10 point lead in the polls at this time in the electoral cycle..

  12. guytaur

    Just like I take a view on liberal leadership; i do the same for Labor and i see markjs comments now and agree with his perspective

  13. MTBW

    Hence I rely on published sources, all of whom agree with the events as I outlined them.

    If you have actual evidence of any kind that anything I’ve said about Albo is incorrect, you’re most welcome to provide them.

    The fact that supporters of Albo – and Rudd – have to rely on feelings in their waters instead of established facts shows how little evidence there is to support their opinions.

  14. markjs

    Loved this bit:

    [for Abbott who would pick a fight in a nunnery..]

    [They are both high quality individuals & skilful politicians ..and I challenge any genuine Labor supporter to criticise a 10 point lead in the polls at this time in the electoral cycle..]

    Agree with you!

    For the record I have never joined a faction in all my years as ALP member but generally voted with the “soft left”.

  15. Vic – Most likely forced but some chance he spat-the-dummy after being told to take the questions on notice i.e. Barnaby and his staffers want to be able to vet the answers before they get to the committee.

  16. victoria

    You are the one that used the word ridiculous. I just pointed out you should not be surprised to get a reaction to using that word because the reality is it was not a ridiculous idea.

    Look at how the membership voted.

    How Albo would have done we do not know. However I think the comment by DTT is on the mark in a lot of ways. Even if it does undersell Shorten’s performance.

    The reality is that Shorten IS doing well as current leader which is all that can be asked.

  19. guytaur

    Insee plenty of twitter comments that shorten is not doing enough and Albo would have been better. Blah blah blah. That is what is ridiculous

  20. The Parrot just protecting his investment in Tony & his own credibility, too late they both disappeared long ago

    “Now you people have been writing to me and saying, ‘I want to hear more of the Prime Minister. You don’t have the Prime Minister on enough’, and so I said to the Prime Minister, ‘Well look, we might try and talk to you a bit more often so that people can hear from you on what they’re talking about in the pubs’,” Jones revealed on Wednesday morning’s show.

  21. markjs, I agree Shorten is a strategic thinker, and I am not too worried about a change of LNP leader. I understand why some ALP supporters want Abbott to stay, but if the LNP know they will lose, we can expect them to dump him. The likes of PvO and Savva are already convinced, so surely it’s inevitable?

    The MSM are always kind to leaders in waiting like Turnbull and Bishop. They all gushed at Turnbull’s little master performances in parliament. All he did was take a question on leadership and crap on about “Shorten the backstabber”. That is exactly what Hockey does in QT, he just attacks the question, throws back a few “reminders” and yells a lot. It’s not hard.

    I think Shorten has more cards in the deck than people think, and things won’t be quite so easy for Turbull (or whomever) once the buck stops with him.

    Politics is in a bit of limbo at the moment. I just wish the LNP would get on with it (the dumping) 🙂

  22. Z

    i think Rudd is right on mark this week seeking genuine democratic reform of labor party – i personally would not join up to party until this occurs … i suspect rudd was victim of interests that he sought to reform, and that he did have policies and good interests of party at heart to an extent not often or clearly understood or stated by many on PB

  23. victoria

    There are different reasons for those tweets.

    Some are Liberals. Some are Labor base worried about the party not being true to its philosophy and think Shorten should be stronger standing for those principles. They think Also would be better at that thus the tweets.

    Its not ridiculous. You can like me disagree but ridiculous its not

  25. [ Yep Rudd should be anointed a saint. ]

    I’m sure Abbott would agree. Perhaps he could intercede on Rudd’s behalf with his mate Pope Pell?

  28. As for the party from the outside it appears to me that change is inevitable.

    I think the union membership must go down a lot. Then Caucus having a 50/50 decision on leadership will be much less of an issue.

    The problem is the vested interests perception by the voting public and of course the membership.

    It has given rise in the past to Obeid. To the Joe De Bruyn’s and Martin Ferguson’s.

    The party needs to have systems in place that can reflect the membership more and faster when the membership and in the case of SSM the community is moving faster than the party.

    Shooting the messenger by saying Mr Rudd is evil incarnate is wrong. He has many faults and is no saint but it does not mean he is wrong in everything.

    If he was he would never had Julia Gillard’s vote in the first place.

  31. [guytaur

    Posted Thursday, March 12, 2015 at 10:19 am | Permalink

    Dave and BW

    Why do you think the Greeks are doing this? Now and not at the start?

    Note this is not Syriza but a court saying the government can do so.

    If the government goes ahead it’s telling the Germans here is a cost of default.]

    1. SYRIZA has systemically engaged in anti-german populism. Some of the stuff they have come up with is worse than anything that would be regarded as acceptable in Australia.

    2. It was a SYRIZAN minister who made the threat. It was supported by the SYRIZAN Prime Minister.

    3. The threat is inconsistent with existing agreements made between post-War german and greek governments.

    4. Threatening to steal german property because the germans are insisting that the greeks pay their debts is not the behaviour of an adult government. It may meet Greens’ supporters thresholds. It may not.

    5. If the secret desire of the SYRIZANs is to get Greece kicked out of the EU, their plan seems to be the only thing on track in Greece. Everything else they have touched since they formed Government has turned to shit.

  34. guytaur

    Labor ended its term in 2013 sadly as a very diminished party. To lead and maintain a lead in 2pp for nearly all of its time in opposition is no mean feat. This is despite Abbott’s govt own goals. Labor’s response to it has been instructive to say the least

  35. [“Now you people have been writing to me and saying, ‘I want to hear more of the Prime Minister. You don’t have the Prime Minister on enough’, and so I said to the Prime Minister, ‘Well look, we might try and talk to you a bit more often so that people can hear from you on what they’re talking about in the pubs’,” Jones revealed on Wednesday morning’s show.]

    I don’t believe it. Jones’ listeners can actually write?

  38. geoffrey

    [i suspect rudd was victim of interests that he sought to reform, and that he did have policies and good interests of party at heart to an extent not often or clearly understood or stated by many on PB]

    How strange, then, that neither Rudd nor any of his backers in the Labor party caucus have ever made these claims.

    Rudd may have had the interests of his government at heart, because its achievements reflected well on himself.

    He had many, many opportunities to initiate reform in the Labor party, and (at one stage) had more authority than any Labor party leader for decades – yet the only reforms he initiated were when he was worried that he might not retain the leadership if MPs had the freedom to make their own decisions.

  39. [Labor ended its term in 2013 sadly as a very diminished party. To lead and maintain a lead in 2pp for nearly all of its time in opposition is no mean feat. This is despite Abbott’s govt own goals. Labor’s response to it has been instructive to say the least]

    Agree Victoria.

  42. “Shooting the messenger by saying Mr Rudd is evil incarnate is wrong. He has many faults and is no saint but it does not mean he is wrong in everything.”

    Rudd displayed disloyalty, and treachery to the party that promoted him, all of which are unforgivable in my book. Quite apart from his narcissism and disorganisation, his selfish, self-centred disloyalty disqualifies him from any credibility or trust at all. As the apple rarely falls far from the tree, Jessica Rudd gets the same treatment from me.

  43. [mjs 179,

    Seriously, though..

    I think Turnbull has Costello’s problem ..not enough numbers

    ..and I don’t think that will change.]

    I’m guessing Turnbull’s plan, if he has one, is that he needs an election to reset and assert himself on the LNP brand. The best chance is to ride on the back of a honeymoon, but an election now is too soon and could easily backfire.

  44. Mr Rudd, the most autocratic, power-centralizing, micro-managing, information hoarding Labor Prime Minister in history wants more democracy in the Labor Party?

    I could fall off my chair.

  45. The Politicians’ Pledge:

    [“In the pursuit of power, I will:

    Act in good conscience;
    Enable informed decision-making by my fellow citizens;
    Respect the intrinsic dignity of all;
    Refrain from exploiting my rivals’ private failings for political gain; and
    Act so as to merit the trust and respect of the community.
    In the exercise of power, I will:

    Give effect to the ideals of democratic government and represent the interests of my electorate as a whole;
    Abide by the letter and spirit of the Constitution and uphold the rule of law;
    Advance the public interest before any personal, sectional or partisan interest;
    Hold myself accountable for conduct for which I am responsible; and
    Exercise the privileges and discharge the duties of public office with dignity, care and honour.”]

    What pompous, apple-pie nonsense this “pledge” is. I would vote for any politician how didn’t sign up to it since it would show a serious engagement with this self-conflicting puffery.

  46. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/germany-rejects-greek-calls-for-second-world-war-reparations-10101787.html

    [The already strained relations between Athens and Berlin worsened today, as German officials blocked a Greek effort to secure reparations for the Nazi occupation in the Second World War.

    The Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras, revived the subject of reparations this week, as the two nations seek an agreement over Greece’s repayments to international lenders. He has demanded that Berlin pay more than €160bn (£112bn) in reparations.

    “We owe it to our history, we owe it to the fighters of the national resistance,” Mr Tsipras told MPs on Tuesday. “The new Greek government will wholeheartedly back the initiative to restore and re-establish the reparation committee in order to seek what Germany owes to Greece.”

    The Justice Minister, Nikos Paraskevopoulos, went further, telling Greek television that he was willing to sign off on an old Supreme Court ruling authorising the appropriation of German property, which includes a handful of buildings in Greece.

    While the campaign for war reparations has been going on for decades, it has found new momentum during the financial crisis, not least because of Berlin’s insistence on the imposition of tough austerity on the country, in exchange for €240bn in bailout loans.

    Any talk of reparations was given short shrift by Berlin yesterday. “We won’t be conducting any talks or negotiations with the Greek side” about Second World War compensation, German finance ministry spokesman Martin Jaeger told reporters in Berlin.

    He added: “We should look forward together. Making these emotional and backward-looking allegations doesn’t help in the context of the work we need to tackle together with the Greeks.”

    Greece’s hard-left government’s reparation demands include compensation for the death and destruction caused by the German occupation of Greece and a loan of 476 million Reichsmarks the Central Bank of Greece was forced to make to the Nazis.

    In 2000, Greece’s Supreme Court rejected a German appeal against a law allowing Athens to seize German property in compensation for war crimes against villagers in Distomo, where members of the Waffen-SS massacred more than 200 people, including women and children.

    Germany has repeatedly dismissed Greek claims, saying that it has already covered its obligations in the post-war reparations it has since paid to the country.]

    Syriza are gambling with Greece’s reputation…unbelievable.

  47. muttley,

    There is an expectation (among all parties) that fair or not, if you are dumped, you should take it on the chin.

    It will be interesting to see how Abbott goes on that score too 🙂

  50. bemused

    the fact that the only response you have on this matter is to abuse those who disagree with you suggests your position is very weak.

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