The BludgerTrack poll aggregate finds the Coalition retaining last week’s big gain without significantly adding to it, except to the extent of a 0.4% increase on two-party preferred and a gain in New South Wales on the seat projection. Coming after this week’s unexpectedly strong result from Ipsos, Coalition-supporting readers of this blog (I know you’re out there) might have been hoping for more. There are two reasons they don’t have it, the first being that Ipsos has had the Coalition tracking solidly higher than its rivals over its four published federal polls, and a bias adjustment is being applied to account for this. So far as BludgerTrack is presently concerned, the Ipsos poll had Labor on 52.5%, rather than the published 51%. The second factor is this week’s Essential Research result. As is so often the case, Essential’s published fortnightly rolling average recorded no change this week. However, BludgerTrack is privy to Essential’s weekly numbers, and while I ordinarily don’t give anything away about them, dedicated observers of BludgerTrack could ascertain for themselves that a stronger result for Labor was concealed by fortnightly smoothing and possibly a little rounding.
It’s a different story on the leadership ratings, where Ipsos’s numbers have caused a particularly large movement in Tony Abbott’s favour on net approval, albeit from a disastrously low base. There are also two data points now to indicate that things might be going a bit awry for Bill Shorten, who long seemed to be tracking just below parity, but is now approaching minus double figures. Abbott has accordingly made up ground on preferred prime minister, which reflects voting intention in being back to where it was before Australia Day. But so far as net approval is concerned, Abbott remains well south of his previous low point after the budget.
On the highway.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Princes_Highway
From an apparently greater authority than I/me:
[The Princes Highway was proclaimed State Highway No. 1 by the newly elected Main Roads Board in 1928; however, it had existed as a major route for some time previously. Eight years earlier, on 19 October 1920, the Princes Highway was named “Prince’s Highway”, in honour of the visiting Prince of Wales. The naming took place at a ceremony at the top of Bulli Pass, which, at the time, was so steep that the cars transporting the official party could not make the climb and the official party had to walk to the top. In 1941 the possessive form of the name was dropped, the highway becoming simply the “Princes Highway”, as it is known today.]
What gets me about these campaign fundraisers is that Joe shouldn’t have to spend a brass razoo on his campaign. He’s got a very safe seat, and Labor wouldn’t be devoting many resources to it.
Basically, he should win it just by having his name on the ballot paper.
[What gets me about these campaign fundraisers is that Joe shouldn’t have to spend a brass razoo on his campaign. He’s got a very safe seat, and Labor wouldn’t be devoting many resources to it.]
It’s all about his ego. The more he can raise the better he must be regarded. It’s all about money, after all.
[“Tony Abbott: Australians ‘sick of being lectured to’ by United Nations, after report finds anti-torture breach”]
The U.N is full of shit.
Go on Google Images and search “U.N Refugee Camp”…. I dare ya
Meanwhile they consider our detention centres “torture” because detainee’s only have access to Playstation 3 and not a Playstation 4…. the humanity!
[What gets me about these campaign fundraisers is that Joe shouldn’t have to spend a brass razoo on his campaign. He’s got a very safe seat, and Labor wouldn’t be devoting many resources to it.]
He still needs to run a campaign and if it is anything like labor the club would use excess to fund other campaigns, particularly marginals being contested by good people
[BB
So the story should have been “Treasurer DECEPTIVELY for sale”?]
More accurately, “So you thought the Treasurer was for sale?”
The truth is an even bigger story than the story. All those poor schmucks – used car dealers, well-to-do tradies on the way up, dentists, doctors, sausage manufacturers, real estate agents and the like – who were told that their $22,000 bought them 10 private dinners with the Treasurer, got ripped off… according to the raffle lobster (I liked that).
He neither knew who he was meeting, nor cared it seems. The punters spent their $22,000 for nothing. If Joe couldn’t remember who he met with, how could he remember what they wanted?
It’s a shakedown racket, and a big and nasty one at that, if what Joe says is true.
zoomster:
Why does Hockey even need a dedicated campaign fund raising forum solely for his electorate? It’s not like he’s at risk of being unseated as the Liberal candidate.
Hockey: “It’s not my fault if all those business types thought they were buying time with me”.
zoomster
I think Hockey doing fundraising would be more for the general party than just for his campaign. Shadow Treasurer is of National significance.
To me that makes it worse. More like buying the party.
I suspect that in legal terms, Hockey’s biggest problem is proving that “Treasurer for sale” – which may conceivably imply corruption – would have been read in isolation from the text of the story that follows.
Courts apply a “reasonable person” test, which would indicate surely that any reader who was shocked and fascinated by the headline, would at the very least go on to read a few paragraphs, leaving that reader in no doubt as to the nature of what was being suggested.
Also, it is important to note that evidence of a malicious/vindictive motive does not necessarily invalidate the subsequent allegations. For instance: you see your neighbour cut down a tree against council regulations and photograph her doing so. You write an email saying: “Great I finally get to crush this woman after all the terrible things she’s done. I really hate this woman and hope she rots in hell.” That email, indicating a malicious motive, doesn’t invalidate the photographic evidence of wrongdoing.
[What gets me about these campaign fundraisers is that Joe shouldn’t have to spend a brass razoo on his campaign. He’s got a very safe seat, and Labor wouldn’t be devoting many resources to it.]
Of COURSE he doesn’t spend the money on himself. He distributes it to other, more needy clients, like the State Liberals – which was what started all this, wasn’t it?
[Basically, he should win it just by having his name on the ballot paper.]
Yes, that is my reaction too.
Adrian – re Princes Highway – I used this example as it was part of my address once upon a time.
We always were …..Princes Highway …..never Princess Highway as some think.
The dropping of the possessive in a name place is quite common, probably because the said possessive sign is more often than not, ignored.
I withdraw from any language wars and await Newspoll – as if that matters just yet.
It amazes me for Newspoll after Newspoll as it headed south for the current government, barely a word in the media. Currently, a twig of evidence that Abbott is on the road to recovery has everyone on Newspoll watch. Still two budgets to go yet.
I’m not sure it will help Joe Hockey much if the Court accepts his evidence that he didn’t know what was going on with the North Sydney Forum. It may be a valid defence for The SMH to show that access to Hockey was available for payment through the forum, whether Hockey knew it or not.
[I suspect that in legal terms, Hockey’s biggest problem is proving that “Treasurer for sale” – which may conceivably imply corruption – would have been read in isolation from the text of the story that follows.]
There’s no doubt the Treasurer WAS for sale – $22,000 in fact per person – but who was doing the selling is another matter. Even if it wasn’t Joe himself (that is, if his story about knowing nothing about what went on is true). it was some other spiv looking to collect as much as he could so he could then siphon it off via the back door to the state Libs, who were forbidden from taking developer money.
zoomster
I’m fascinated. Could you give me a reference to “lend” as a verb. I’ve only ever heard it when kids say “C’n I have a lend of your pen?”.
Seems reasonable just to pay 22K to belong. the food must have been seriously noice
guytaur:
Whether the funds raised were funneled to other parts of the party is immaterial. Hockey sat in court today and said point blank that he thought the whatever it is Forum was an ACCI-like body for his electorate.
zoomster
Oh bugger. Messed it up again. I meant “lend” as a noun, of course. I’ve just sent my mother off to hospital and am trying to stay cool.
lizzie
Are you having a lend?
That playing someone for a fool
BB
I had the same thought as you. Imagine if you thought you were a bit of an up and comer in North Sydney and you dropped a few grand in Joe’s tin and went along to a function hoping for a quiet word with the great man and he gave you the bum’s rush because he didn’t know who you were.
Which is why Joe would know exactly who the donors were.
lizzie
Hmmm. I should have been slower off the mark 🙂
guytaur
PB just lost my last post. Maybe I should just have aanother little drink and retire for the night!
lizzie
to be fair, it was Roxanna who implied ‘lend’ was a verb, by saying I should have used ‘lend’ instead of ‘loan’.
However…
“Would you lend me some money?”
It’s a noun when you have a lend of somebody.
lizzie
If its what you need Have a break. Come back after 8:30 Newspoll won’t be long away by then.
Otherwise just do what we all do with the PB gremlins and typos battle on through 🙂
Increasing the tax take is a tool that a currency-issuing government uses to reduce the nominal demand of the private sector (households and firms). This is appropriate when the economy is overheating, that is, when nominal demand is increasing faster than the economy’s capacity to respond by increasing real output. However, when there is an output gap, that is, when nominal demand is for a smaller output than what could be produced if all existing resources were employed, the government needs to increase nominal demand by increasing government spending and/or cutting taxes.
So while Greece does need to develop a decent tax system in the years ahead, this is not the top priority when 25 percent of the workforce is unused. There is an enormous output gap in Greece that can only be closed by increasing the private sector’s purchasing power. This could best be achieved by government spending on job creation, productive infrastructure, and social services.
(Which isn’t accepted as ‘proper’ by some dictionaries, of course).
[“I suspect that in legal terms, Hockey’s biggest problem is proving that “Treasurer for sale” – which may conceivably imply corruption – would have been read in isolation from the text of the story that follows.”]
Clearly missed the article.
I’ve noticed the online version has now been modified by Fairfax(gee wonder why?) but it had a poll.
Luckily we have internet techmalamagies that allow us to see the original unedited page run by the Sydney Leftist Herald.
Specifically probably the most defamatory part was the poll question at the bottom:
“Poll: Do you think it is reasonable for companies to have access to the Treasurer in exchange for donations to the Liberal Party?”
I think Joes Legal Reps are making a huge blunder in not mentioning the North Sydney Death Cult Terrorists as part of his case against Fairfax.
[This could best be achieved by government spending on job creation, productive infrastructure, and social services.]
Right. So they either need to loan money (when no one is likely to lend it to them, because they’re not very good at paying it back) or raise taxes.
zoomster
That’s what I was going to say. It’s slang. Perhaps Macquarie Dictionary will take it up as an Australianism.
TBA
Please explain why that question is defamatory.
I could ask “Is it proper for Bill Shorten to wear a blue tie?”
That doesn’t mean Bill Shorten wears blue ties.
Joe is being a bit over-sensitive, isn’t he? Considering how he insults Swanny under cover of Parliamentary privilege. Has he been coached in the can’t remember stakes by Arfur?
zoomster
The EU has extended the loans to Greece for a couple of months. So the EU is loaning money to Greece right now
lizzie
It’s quite common for verbs to become nouns and vice versa in English. Shakespeare (whose language we are often accused of sullying by such actions) was responsible for some of the shifts in usage.
z,
It’s one of those arguments about whether a watermelon is a fruit or vegetable!
zoomster
It’s becoming very common in sport-speak and business-speak.
In an economy that has a Great Depression level of unemployment and output, is taking more money out of the private sector the appropriate macroeconomic response?
Joe will easily win the case.
Even Fairfax.. possibly in a moment of “Independent… Always” enlightenment was nice enough to detail that the authors who wrote the story were pieved that a few days prior Hockey’s team called him early in the morning and he wanted a bit of pay back.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/hockey-defamation-trial-treasurer-could-not-allow-scurrilous-and-false-allegations-to-remain-unchallenged-lawyer-says-20150309-13ytyt.html
[“In a series of text messages, Herald editor-in-chief Darren Goodsir told The Age editor-in-chief Andrew Holden that he was angry at being contacted at 2.15am by Mr Hockey’s staff.
“They have a f—ing hide,” he said. “I feel pissed off they called me so early.”
Holden replied: “The simplest approach is to dig into NSF… in that story you can run Hockey’s claim he knew nothing … beyond that, f— him.
“Amazing they freeze us out and then think they have the relationship that allows them to call in the middle of the night.”
Goodsir said: “Are we not better to have a red hot go at the issue next week, and really go for it … after the day we’ve had, I ain’t going to run this – but am more than keen to develop a North Sydney Forum plan for next week.”
He instructed Herald state political editor Sean Nicholls to dig into the North Sydney Forum.
On March 27, Goodsir wrote: “F—ing Brilliant … given what Andrew and I endured last week with Hockey, I want to have this nailed to the cross in more ways than one … keep digging Sean… I have long dreamed (well, only since last Friday), of a headline that screams: Sloppy Joe! I think we are not far off, but perhaps even more serious than that.””]
Thankfully we have the PB legal beagles here though who almost unanimously concluded Craig Thomson was innocent as well….
guytaur
(at the risk of double posting….it appears that 7 pm is the new 8 pm here…)
Nicholas is talking about Greece needing a lot more money than that.
What value proposition was put forward by the North Sydney Forum in order to extract thousands of dollars from business people?
[1748
guytaur
briefly
That’s the government responding to the people.]
What it means is that “commitments” made by Syriza will not be believed until they have been endorsed by their colleagues and enacted by the Parliament.
[After all that after the deadline the EU still extended the loans]
There’s many a slip twixt cup and lip. Syriza made commitments from which they are now resiling. Too bad.
zoomster
Maybe so. All the more stupid to be doing austerity
If Joe wins the case the law needs to be changed
TBA
see? You’ve already shifted the goalposts.
BK,
Perhaps it involved a co-payment rebate and half a dozen ride tickets to Luna Park.
briefly
EU extended the loam. I think you have no point.
guytaur
I agree – but usually governments can borrow money to pay for such things. No one is likely to loan Greece any more than they have already.
Well, came into the Hockey saga a little late.
Thought I heard the news air an email communication to the head honcho at Fairfax re: an apology to Hockey but received a reply not to apologise to Hockey but to dig deeper into this forum f*** him.