With three weeks to go until polling day, ReachTEL has an automated phone poll from a sample of 1731 respondents, conducted on Thursday for the Seven Network, which records remarkably little change on its poll last week. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down 0.6% to 44.0%, Labor is down 0.2% to 34.8% and the Greens are up 0.2% to 10.2%. This time ReachTEL has treated to a respondent-allocated preferences result, but it’s exactly the same as the pollster got using 2011 election preferences last week from near-identical primary vote numbers, with the Coalition lead at 53-47. I wrote in Crikey last week that preference behaviour had traditionally been less variable in New South Wales than Queensland; this poll offers at least some evidence that that isn’t about to change, though more respondent-allocated results would be good to see. Hopefully Ipsos will come through at some point.
I haven’t had much to say about the election campaign so far as I’m busy getting my election guide in order, but by way of throwing you a bone, here is my calculation of what an electoral pendulum would look like if the results of the 2013 election were precisely replicated on state boundaries. The Coalition’s 54.35-45.65 win on two-party preferred translates into 58 seats for the Coalition and 35 for Labor. I’ll have more to say about this in Crikey tomorrow or the next day, but for now I’ll stick to noting that a very interesting pattern emerges with the seats on the North Coast.