ReachTEL: 53-47 to Coalition in NSW

Three weeks out from the election, ReachTEL is unchanged on last week in having the Coalition with a moderate lead. Also featured: how a state election would look based on 2013 federal election results.

With three weeks to go until polling day, ReachTEL has an automated phone poll from a sample of 1731 respondents, conducted on Thursday for the Seven Network, which records remarkably little change on its poll last week. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down 0.6% to 44.0%, Labor is down 0.2% to 34.8% and the Greens are up 0.2% to 10.2%. This time ReachTEL has treated to a respondent-allocated preferences result, but it’s exactly the same as the pollster got using 2011 election preferences last week from near-identical primary vote numbers, with the Coalition lead at 53-47. I wrote in Crikey last week that preference behaviour had traditionally been less variable in New South Wales than Queensland; this poll offers at least some evidence that that isn’t about to change, though more respondent-allocated results would be good to see. Hopefully Ipsos will come through at some point.

I haven’t had much to say about the election campaign so far as I’m busy getting my election guide in order, but by way of throwing you a bone, here is my calculation of what an electoral pendulum would look like if the results of the 2013 election were precisely replicated on state boundaries. The Coalition’s 54.35-45.65 win on two-party preferred translates into 58 seats for the Coalition and 35 for Labor. I’ll have more to say about this in Crikey tomorrow or the next day, but for now I’ll stick to noting that a very interesting pattern emerges with the seats on the North Coast.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

57 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Coalition in NSW”

Comments Page 1 of 2
1 2
  1. Based on federal election results, seats are listed in ascending order by margin, with Coalition on the left and Labor on the right. Both federal and state margins are shown, colour-coded to indicate if the margin is Coalition or Labor. Not that hard, surely.

  2. I would suggest that since a significant proportion of the non-Coalition and non-ALP vote is the Greens and includes some other people who generally prefer the ALP to the Coalition, a change from an ALP government (which whom they have become disillusioned, even before 2011) to a Coalition government, are more likely to preference the ALP at this election. The preference swing to the ALP in Queensland was greater than the preference swing against it in 2012 and so it is reasonable to suggest that the net preference swing to the ALP compared with the 2009 election is a reasonable starting point for estimating the preference swing to the ALP in NSW.

  3. Not hard at all but does it mean much?
    The people of the North Coast have been differentiating between state and federal for 25 years. Labor got barely into double figures in Lismore and Ballina last time and were well behind the Greens. If CSG is an issue for the general population the Greens rather than Labor may be challengers.

  4. I know that the last NSW was a massive landslide but even so, the difference between the state and federal margins is quite telling.

    Maybe this goes to show that the DT and 2GB don’t have that much hold on Sydney as many previously through

  5. MB, their market of angry old white men , and a big hello to you know who, is rapidly falling of their perches

  6. This is pretty reasonable for Labor considering the drubbing they got last time. I reckon it will be a bit closer due to the preferences (being not as bad for Labor compared to the last election).

  7. I’m trying to understand the table, for example Sydney Federal & Sydeny State have differing electoral boundaries.

  8. The state seat of Sydney has a Labor margin of 0.5% if you go off the federal election result, but a 17.9% Liberal margin if you go off the 2011 election result (and take Clover Moore out of the equation). The table doesn’t have anything to say about the federal electorate of Sydney, from which the state seat in fact draws only about half of its voters.

  9. 9

    Booth results for the area covered by the state electorates, possibly with some non-booth vote added, are used to calculate the results if the votes fell the same way at state level. I happens from time to time.

    I do not recall anybody doing this for the recent Victorian election though.

  10. I did something like this comparing the 2013 state and federal elections. On federal figures, Labor would’ve won just 13 seats out of 59, rather than the 21 they actually got. Just like this table, there’s some strange looking outliers, coming from either certain MPs’ personal votes or outlandishly huge swings at the state election.

    Also in WA: the Greens came mighty close to winning Kimberley thanks to some very similar local issues to CSG on the North Coast. I wouldn’t be surprised if they gave Ballina or Lismore a decent shake.

  11. [“Perhaps because endemic poverty and high crime rates correlate. I wonder why that might be?”]

    And how pray tell will Labor get them out of that predicament?

    Seems like they are voting for the wrong party if they want economic growth and not just hand outs. Also you’d want a party to crack down on crime right?

  12. “if they want economic growth and not just hand outs.”

    Best return any government will ever get on an investment is giving people money for food and shelter.

    I dare you say different TBA.

  13. TBA

    Usually poorer areas have greater levels of social disadvantage, thus they have higher crime rates.

    This is not a new concept and has been known for centuries, this is why government’s developed educational and social policies as they help to reduce the problems which result in crime.

  14. mexicanbeemer,

    I haven’t visited PB for a long time, but TBA smells to me like a wannabe quintessential Libthug troll. Cause and effect are beyond his comprehension.

    Punitive action, however, is not.

  15. Looking at that table: since Labor did about 10% better federally than in 2011, so you’d expect ALP fed – ALP state to be about that far apart. (Example: The Entrance, with an 11.7% difference.) There’s a few outliers in either direction.

    Where that difference is small or even negative, the Libs / Nats did comparatively better federally for some reason. A great example is Monaro, with only a 1.8% diffence. That’s obviously related to Steve Whan’s popularity – the Nats would have a margin above 10% if not for him. The seats with the largest negative difference (ie: the very worst for Labor) are Oatley, East Hills and Kogarah, next door to each other in southern Sydney – must be a local reason for that. Coogee, Maroubra and Rockdale are also down at that end of the scale.

    In the other direction, there’s seats where that difference is well above 10%. Some of those are safe Labor seats like Cabramatta and Fairfield where the Libs don’t usually bother to campaign, but did in 2011. There’s seats with ridiculously inflated margins like Riverstone and Ryde, which will come back down. (Weirdly, Bathurst isn’t really in that category, despite the colossal swing there in 2011.)

    It’d be interesting to see the NSW seats sorted with respect to that difference, rather than federal margin – it’d make it easy to spot aberrant ones.

  16. The way I’m reading it is…

    1.You take the Bludgertrack federal swing of 5.3% to the ALP TPP since the Federal election.
    2.You count down the pendulum within that margin (to Mulgoa) = 16
    3.You apply that to the State result at the last Federal election, which was Coalition 58 ALP 35
    4. And you get ALP 51, Coalition 42.

    That is if you apply the NSW Federal results over the State. I’m not sure Baird is doing as badly as Abbott.

  17. Or, Question, you assume that Labor will do about 1% better than they did in the Federal election (roughly what the polls are showing), and that gives them 42 to the coal-ition’s 51. Unless anything dramatic happens in the next 3 weeks, I think that’ll be close to the result.

  18. TBA
    You are as thick as a box of tony abbott’s lies.

    The rate of crime is consistent across the classes. Lower class crime, and lower class areas are policed more heavily, charged and convicted more often, and these people do not have access to resources or networks for good defence action.

    Gawd save me from the wilfully ignorant.

  19. TBA
    You are as thick as a box of tony abbott’s lies.

    The rate of crime is consistent across the classes. Lower class crime, and lower class areas are policed more heavily, charged and convicted more often, and these people do not have access to resources or networks for good defence action.

    Gawd save me from the wilfully ignorant.

  20. Labor promises Ballina better schools and hospital

    Mental health funding crisis: doctors planning to quit over lack of resources

    Former NSW Nationals leader Andrew Stoner to sue Alan Jones and Greens MP over CSG comments

  21. TBA re. Crime stats. I suspect the police are not all that keen on dealing with white collar crims. They tend to have solid networks in the justice system as well as with politicians. E.g. When Vizard was brought to court the judge said he couldn’t send him to jail because he was too famous!

  22. TBA @17:

    [And how pray tell will Labor get them out of that predicament?]

    By actually providing opportunities for advancement, not just for their mates to loot the public purse bare like the Liberals do. Name the last Liberal Government (State or Commonwealth!) that was actually interested in broader economic progress, as opposed to the tracking figures of the stock market or some other such measure of 0.1% success.

    You’d have to go back to Fraser, and he botched it. But at least he tried.

    [Seems like they are voting for the wrong party if they want economic growth and not just hand outs.]

    The Liberals are very fortunate that they never presided over government in a time of worldwide economic contraction. The Great Depression, the oil shocks, the crash of ’89, the GFC…Labor’s always been on the spot.

    Latest example of Liberal good luck is Howard – whose heavy lifting had already been done by Hawke and Keating, and who benefited from a protracted global economic upswing, but still managed to spend the Budget into a structural deficit (FTB A and B pushed the Budget over the edge into long-term deficit, covered by abundant mining revenues in the short term).

    As for the current crop of Liberals – the people currently advocating austerity against the advice of everyone from the Business Council of Australia down(!) – if we’d followed their advice when the GFC hit, we’d be where Europe is now. Seven wasted years (and counting) of economic doldrums, all to please the banksters. The time to cut public spending is not when private-sector demand is weak and weakening. It’s when private-sector demand is strong and causing inflationary pressure on the economy. Any Econ 101 student knows this, but the Liberals ignore it at the behest of their owners at the IPA.

    The Liberal Party are the greatest economic vandals in Australian history.

    [Also you’d want a party to crack down on crime right?]

    Inflating arrest figures doesn’t target the causes of crime – only the symptoms. Granted, the Liberals and their private prison-operator mates love that (gotta keep bums on the beds, after all!), but I prefer Laura Norder policies that actually deal with the problem, rather than just band-aiding it at vast cost to the taxpayer.

    Putting de facto curfews on the wrong side of the tracks (or on non-whites in the nightlife districts), arbitrary search and arrest policies and a police-state mentality will, if anything, make it worse.

    Not that that seems to bother Liberal voters.

  23. Puff @30, Pritu @34:

    None so blind as those who will not see. Rich people who commit crimes have a much better chance of getting off, and it’s not just about the money. They look respectable. They look like solid citizens. In short, they look innocent, and are often found innocent – even when any unbiased reading of the evidence points to their guilt.

    And yes, who you know dramatically affects your possibility of being charged at all.

  24. [Or, Question, you assume that Labor will do about 1% better than they did in the Federal election (roughly what the polls are showing), and that gives them 42 to the coal-ition’s 51. Unless anything dramatic happens in the next 3 weeks, I think that’ll be close to the result.]

    Yes, you’re probably right. I was having a bit of fun applying the Federal data.

  25. “breaking cover” briefly while working in NSW!

    Funny to see the “L Plate” meme resurrected for Foley by the Libs. I have now seen this applied to Maggie Hickey (ALP NT 1997), Mark Latham (ALP Fed 2004) and now Foley.

    I suppose you could say the first two uses of it were successful. But the both of them were “last gasp” wins, and Labor won in the NT at the next election for the first time ever, and Federally after 11 years of Howard.

    So maybe it means the Libs will win but lose next time. I can’t help but feel Mike “Cheaper electricity in 2019” Baird may have just had his George H. Bush “Read my lips, no new taxes” moment.

    Sure it might get him out of a sticky situation right now, but I think it may well come back to haunt him!

    As for Northern NSW – coming from Melbourne and having recently travelled through SA and Central Australia – it is SO GREEN (literally, not politically!). These rivers seem to each have more water in them than all Victoria’s rivers put together!

  26. Don’t forget that the Courier Mail ended the recent Queensland election campaign with a large L plate for Annastacia Palaszczuk on the front page.

    We know how that turned out.

  27. Incidentally, Moreton MP Graham Perrett’s suggestion for spelling the Queensland Premier’s surname is very good:

    Pala + Sydney Zoo + Canberra Zoo + UK.


  28. That table seems like a pretty pointless exercise, given the distance in time between the 2013 federal election and either the 2011 or 2015 NSW elections.

    A factor which may also be affecting the North Coast, and rural electorates generally, is that State electorates are smaller than federal electorates. That might not seem important, but Saturdays are shopping days for people in remote areas, and that means going to town. If I vote in town, for example, that’s likely to be in Coffs Harbour as that’s where my kids play sport most Saturdays. Federally, that makes no difference, because I live in the Cowper electorate, same as Coffs. But with smaller state electorates, I’m unlikely to vote in Coffs, because I live in Oxley, so I’ll just stop at the local polling place on the way out. I’m not sure going down to booth level results makes much sense, and the table being all over the place seems to reflect bad methodology, as much as anything else.

  29. OlivierK – as a “temp” here in North-East NSW I think maybe that goes some way to explain it. I had no idea until I arrived just how safe these National seats were. Because in my mind I think of the Federal electorates of Cowper, Richmond, Page.

    Anyway, Coal Seam Gas seems to be firing up people more than electricity privatisation even. Also works into the old “Nationals are just the servants of the Liberals and their Big Business allies in the city”.

  30. I’ve spent the last week doing a ring-around of variable sources, some reliable, some not so, but all well placed to be informed of things.

    Noted are:

    1. Nats vote collapsing along the north coast (as Oakshott Country can testify). It will certainly cost them Ballina, maybe Tweed and at an outside Lismore (I have those last two seats as too close to call). Clarence, Coffs, Port and Oxley should stay Nat, but all will go to preferences. Myall Lakes will be interesting.

    2. Nats in big trouble in Tamworth. Independent to regain. Upper Hunter also sluggish, but should stay Nat against a big ALP/Ind swing – the ALP candidate is the serving Mayor of Muswelbrook and it contains the CSG frontline community of Gloucester.

    3. Barilaro is gone in Monaro.

    4. Arthur Rorris is running in the Gong! Anyone who remembers Cunningham knows how this ends, but I’m guessing Noreen Hay should undeservedly hang on. Kiama will go the ALP on the back of the big Bomaderry booths. Throw rocks at me, but I’m giving Heathcote as possible win to the ALP at this stage.

    5. Apart from the bible belt northwest the only seats I see staying Lib in western Sydney are Penrith (where Ayres should hang on versus Jackie Kelly), Mulgoa, Macquarie Fields, Camden and Holsworthy. Wollondilly will stay Lib, but I don’t class it as Western Sydney as it covers most of the Southern Highlands these days.

    6, No one seems to be paying attention to the grass roots doorknocking campaign around privatisation. A (non-political) friend who lives in a marginal seat has been doorknocked three times, not by activists, but by neighbours. The coalition cannot match this sort of grassroots campaigning that is going completely under the radar. She has decided to vote on the basis of the campaign (she paid a fine rather than vote in 2011).

    7. Firth will regain Balmain, I’m tipping the Greens in Newtown, but wouldn’t be surprised if Penny Sharpe got up.

    8. Apart from Terrigal the ALP will win everything on the Central Coast.

    9. We won’t know for a week, but Coogee will also fall to the ALP. I’m thinking Drummoyne will stay with the coalition.

    10. Given the Nats vote collapsing in the bush and the optional preferential upper house arrangements in NSW I give the Legislative Council Coalition 9, ALP 8, Shooters 1 and Greens 3 (picking up the last seat on ALP preferences). No more Fred Nile, whose vote has also shrunk, along with the preference feed from minor parties because he won’t blow Drury. This will see an upper house Coalition 20, ALP 13, Greens 6, Shooters 2, CDP 1.

    After all that prognosis my seat-by-seat analysis reads Coalition 44, ALP 43, Crossbench 4 and two too close to call (Ballina and Lismore, where it’s a three cornered contest). These are informed guesstimates of course, but even being generous to the coalition I can’t see where they get 47 seats, and a majority, from!

    I’m mnot making this up. You couldn’t.

  31. William @ 2 but I still think it is confusing -ie to read and is not comparing apples with apples and someone else pointed out separated by considerable time. Monaro does not equal eden-monaro despite there is significant overlap in a generally sparely populated (by east coast standards) area. But thank you anyway.

  32. Lachlan Ridge – comforting, and absolutely agree the invisible John Barilaro (Mr Ryleho – joinery in Queanbeyan habitually infested by Howard and Costello and national TV crews) is toast.

  33. Keyman,

    Word from Cooma is he is struggling there! That’s his heartland vote. He needs a massive vote in Jerra to be a chance, what do you think?

  34. Lachlan Ridge: I think you might be Meguire Bob who once predicted ( on inside information) that Labor would win Norhern Tablelands. They got 9%
    If so I’d remind you of your promise to Diogenes that you would not make predictions after your Bob Ellis inspired estimate of a Labor 2PP of 53% in the 2013 Federal election proved to be a mild over-estimate.
    BTW I have lived in Sydney for the last 3 years so my knowledge of the National vote collapsing on the North Coast is now limited but my prediction of Myall Lakes (on a margin of 28.8%) is deadly boring rather than interesting.

Comments Page 1 of 2
1 2

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *