BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

The weekly poll aggregate reading suggests the Coalition has recovered only to the extent of restoring its position before Australia Day, with Tony Abbott’s personal ratings remaining in the doldrums.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate finds the Coalition retaining last week’s big gain without significantly adding to it, except to the extent of a 0.4% increase on two-party preferred and a gain in New South Wales on the seat projection. Coming after this week’s unexpectedly strong result from Ipsos, Coalition-supporting readers of this blog (I know you’re out there) might have been hoping for more. There are two reasons they don’t have it, the first being that Ipsos has had the Coalition tracking solidly higher than its rivals over its four published federal polls, and a bias adjustment is being applied to account for this. So far as BludgerTrack is presently concerned, the Ipsos poll had Labor on 52.5%, rather than the published 51%. The second factor is this week’s Essential Research result. As is so often the case, Essential’s published fortnightly rolling average recorded no change this week. However, BludgerTrack is privy to Essential’s weekly numbers, and while I ordinarily don’t give anything away about them, dedicated observers of BludgerTrack could ascertain for themselves that a stronger result for Labor was concealed by fortnightly smoothing and possibly a little rounding.

It’s a different story on the leadership ratings, where Ipsos’s numbers have caused a particularly large movement in Tony Abbott’s favour on net approval, albeit from a disastrously low base. There are also two data points now to indicate that things might be going a bit awry for Bill Shorten, who long seemed to be tracking just below parity, but is now approaching minus double figures. Abbott has accordingly made up ground on preferred prime minister, which reflects voting intention in being back to where it was before Australia Day. But so far as net approval is concerned, Abbott remains well south of his previous low point after the budget.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,925 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. From the previous thread….


    Question @827:

    No, they’re being killed because they committed capital offenses.]

    This is merely the pretext for killing. The prisoners will die because it pleases the President. He wants to daub himself with the blood of the powerless. He wants this because he thinks death is an instrument he can use to his advantage. He supposes death is a tactic he’s free to use. The truth is rather the reverse. Death is using him. He has let it out into the streets.

    This is not really about law. It is about power. It is about obedience, subjugation, dread and complicity.

    It’s not so very different from our own leader, who is cultivating his own alliance with death. Blood is for the spilling. We’ve been asked to taste it, to feel its stickiness on our fingers; death has been given leave to play in the interstices of our imaginings. These leaders do not want to serve us. They want to haunt us.

  2. William

    It’s a different story on the leadership ratings, where Ipsos’s numbers have cause

    I assume you apply the same 1.5% bias adjustment on Ipsos to Abbotts personal ratings

  3. I know WB can’t say much publicly about this, but I wonder what sort of data Essential has to be holding back. Is it how the weighting are applied, working numbers and that sort of thing?

  4. Also, in the previous thread, I don’t know why everybody keeps putting hope in presidential clemency.

    If Indonesia did not have a clemency option like in Australia, would we lay the blame on their president?

    If anything needs to be changed, it’s the legal system.

  5. Ignorant Christiananti science government holds up funding of deep sea research off WA coast

    Money for the National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy’s 27 facilities to operate for another year is tied to the government’s higher education reforms, which have stalled in the Senate.

    Will close in June unless Tony provides funding, I thought only the yanks played the stupid tied funding game

  6. Getting a bit sick of the hypocrisy surrounding these executions. Dawn vigil outside Parliament House with the same MPs who are prepared to send refugees back to almost certain death in their home country.

  7. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    John Oliver takes another swipe at our Ton y Abbott.
    Abbott’s war against science continues.
    At the Royal Commission Ian “Snake” Paterson was forced to admit to cover-ups and the reasons for them. Vile!
    The Guardian reports on yesterday’s hearing.
    And here is a firsthand account of life as a student at Knox.
    Is there about to be an RET barnacle back flip?
    Peter Wicks takes us behind the Colgate smile of Mike Baird.
    Peter Martin on the intergenerational report – right message, wrong time.
    And Lenore Taylor looks at the approaches Hockey may take on it.
    “No pressure Joe, but you’re back in the spotlight” says Michelle Grattan on the eve of the release of the intergenerational report.

  8. Morning all. For the second month in a row, there was a suspiciously large, and beneficial, move on money markets just before the RBA’s interest rates decision became public. ASIC is investigating.

    The identity of the trade is not reported. Why not? It should be on record. Was it the same as last month? There had to be a large volume traded to spike the price of the Aussie dollar almost half a cent. Not many people could have done this, and they know each other. How come we can’t find out who they are? Time for some Senate questions. Maybe Joe Hockey knows? After all, his own wife works in banking. No conflict there of course, unless he tells her anything about his work.

  9. Unbelievable…..

    More than 10,000 refugees have been saved in the Mediterranean north of Libya in the past two days but 10 people died at sea, Italian officials have said.

    A flotilla of rescue vessels, including from Italy’s coastguard and navy, and three cargo ships saved 941 people in seven separate operations on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the coastguard and two cargo ships rescued 94 migrants whose motorised dinghy was in distress 40 miles (65 km) north of Libya.

    About time the total myth of Australian generosity & sacrifice were exposed….Come on Jurnos ask Tony why he is so inhuman

  10. Section 2 . . .

    Elizabeth Farrelly examines the government’s motives behind the Triggs attack.
    An ethicist’s views of “Stop the Boats” and Indonesia’s war on drugs.
    David Murray has reported to Hockey that there should be more controls over borrowing for real estate.
    Scott Morrison tells Aussies to stop whining and to take their medicine.
    The Australian economy is much like Shane Watson says Stephen Koukoulas.
    This was bound to happen!
    The true weakness of the economy has been exposed.
    “View from the Street” has some fun with Clive Palmer.
    The use of Post-It sticky notes has become ubiquitous as a means of avoiding FOI disclosure.

  11. Section 3 . . .

    Alan Moir seems to think the government has some directional problems

    Ron Tandberg’s simple cartoons always hit the spot.

    Mark Knight suggests there has been a spot of overkill with Indonesian preparations for the executions.

    David Rowe doesn’t think the ADF will be overwhelmed by the latest pay offer.

    David Pope sees no end to troubles in the Middle East.

    Bill Leak on Medicare.

  12. Morning all
    [The weekly poll aggregate reading suggests the Coalition has recovered only to the extent of restoring its position before Australia Day
    This to me sounds about right.
    Back to trend.
    It appears the leadership shenanigans did not have much of an affect, certainly compared to the Sir Prince affair.

  13. Sceptic

    It would be interesting to ask Abbott why he thinks a catholic nation like Italy would be so willing to pick up the refugees and we would not? What does Abbott think his own faith obliges him to do? He is always so keen to trumpet his religion when it suits him.

  14. BK thanks for the links as always. Kouk is right – our economic performance has been very poor for some time now – coincidentally during the time Joe Hockey has been in charge. With the USA improving and the mining boom having stopped two years ago, Joe is running out of excuses. Pushing through toll roads that end up giving a billion dollars to some financier mates will not fix the problem.

    Have a good day all.


    [There was a case in the Northern Territory recently in which a Warlpiri woman had two grandchildren removed from her care. In my experience, it was a fairly typical case. She was living in Alice Springs, looking after two of her grandchildren, one of whom had lost both parents to tragic early death. There were allegations that the grandmother was neglecting the children and they were removed from the local school without her knowledge or consent. “Neglect” is the most common reason for removal of Aboriginal children.

    These children were shifted between a number of non-Indigenous foster households. During visits they confided to their grandmother that they had been physically assaulted while in care. They lost use of their Warlpiri language.

    Aboriginal Legal Aid could not represent the grandmother because they were acting for her daughter, who was incarcerated. No other community legal service in town would represent her, saying she had no chance in court. A formidable affidavit from the territory’s department of children and families, with reports from a number of different service providers, made her out to be a hopeless case. But she refused to give up. With the help of a committed non-Indigenous friend, she was able to secure a private lawyer.

    She was accused of being a drinker when she never touched alcohol.

    The allegations did not stand up in court when they were finally tested after more than 12 months. She was accused of being a drinker when she never touched alcohol. The children were said to have chronic school attendance problems, when a look at the actual roll showed they had a great attendance record. Aboriginal cultural practices, such as having extended family members regularly stay at the house, were said to be a “disruption” to the children’s lives, when they were actually a source of love and strength.]

    Read on . . .

  16. Socrates

    I’m wathcing the RBA / ASIC invetsigation closely.

    My one word of caution to you would be that even deep, liquid money and FX markets aren’t always liquid. In fact, most prices are pulled in the 30-60 seconds before major annoucnements (like a 50/50 RBA meeting). It’s actually remarkably hard to transact 15 seconds before a major annoucnement.

    So it might wouldn’t take that much size to move the market at that time.

    That’s one reason I’m actually quite hopeful that whoever is doing this will be found and convicted – they’re being awfully clumsy .

    If a skilled trader knew the result of the RBA meeting beforehand they would have made much money with much less trace than appears to be happening.

    This insider trading appears to be amateurish to me.

  17. The bump in Essential, is probably the huge Aus day rise hitting its peak in their averaging system (as earlier results drop off), but being partly countered by the newer and smaller drop.

  18. Benson in Murdoch’s DT – do your patriotic bit for Australia:

    [Joe Hockey asks Aussie workers to save the nation by delaying retirement until after 65

    Treasurer Joe Hockey needs our help {Picture of two flag Joe with arms outstretched}

    Treasurer Joe Hockey yesterday issued a call to arms for workers to delay their ­retirement until after 65 to ­future-proof the nation for the coming generations.


  19. Serco used to run the detention centres, they now only run gaols which they prefer to man with Israeli backpackers who have completed military service.
    Transfield now has Immigration gaol contracts and probably also uses Israeli backpackers

  20. [Treasurer Joe Hockey yesterday issued a call to arms for workers to delay their ­retirement until after 65 to ­future-proof the nation for the coming generations
    So apart from bashing Labor that is their plan.
    What they will do is
    Cut benefits and reduce company tax.
    Why cut company tax? They will argue that cutting company taxes will boost growth and that way help the budget, trickle down economics under another name.
    Labor should sell the NBN , NDIS and education reforms as reforms to boost productivity.
    Remember that reforms don’t have to mean cutbacks.

  21. JR

    Reducing company tax is the exact wrong way to go. If anything it should be increased as more people have to rely on the government for income.

    You are right as to how to argue for company tax as the reality does not seem to be politically acceptable to argue

  22. Our economy cannot provide work for everyone now, certainly not the legions of young people who finish their education each year, and it’s getting worse. Why do we need older people to keep working?

  23. Thanks billie and John R.

    The bullying of detained refugees seems to be universal as they are treated like criminals.

    I was going to link to that ‘baby boomers have the best’ article, but got distracted by all the other bad news in the papers this morning. 🙁

  24. I’m sure there are many workers who would like to be working until 65. Their employers, and prospective employers, have other ideas, though. Hockey talks as if it’s a choice for all older workers to retire. Does he not read the employment statistics?

  25. Diogenes

    I don’t like Bishop in many ways. On this issue I truly think she has been doing all she can. As a result she looks better to the Australian public.

    Genuine work by a politician reaps dividends.

    In this case it a pity the genuine work seems like its going to be in vain as much as I hope I am wrong.

  26. The wealth of a society can’t be reduced to a simple matter of whether or not the budget balances, yet that seems to be the thrust of the intergenerational report.

    The government also seems to assume that their ‘reforms’ are the only possible path to budget surplus – that the only way to reduce health spending is to hit patients with higher costs, the only way to reduce welfare dependency is to deprive young people of welfare, the only way to reform universities is to raise costs for students, and so on.

    The Brave New World (in surplus) in 2020 would be one with university graduates laden down with debt, with reduced discretionary spending, of a whole swathe of young people made homeless with no hope of ever getting employment, a health system burdened with people whose illnesses were diagnosed too late for cheap and effective treatment because they were reluctant to go to a doctor – and so on.

    Might have a great looking balance sheet, but it wouldn’t be much of a society.

  27. @ guytaur, 29

    What should happen is that we should remove the opportunity for multinationals to gain an unfair tax advantage over local companies by profit-shifting, related-party loans and the like by taxing (at the headline rate) them on the same percentage of their global profits as the proportion of their sales that occur in Australia. For example, if a company makes $1 billion profit globally and has 20% of its sales in Australia, it should be taxed in Australia as if it had made $200 million profit here.

    It is quite possible that the headline rate of corporation tax could, in fact, be reduced by several percent with the extra tax this would bring in as an incentive (and stimulus for Australian businesses who are stuck paying the headline rate).

  28. zoomster

    Heard a question about the intergen report on RN this morning. If the effect of climate change is not factored in, or even mentioned, the whole thing is a political cockup ignoring reality.

  29. AS

    Of course I agree about the Multinationals. However that does not change the fact that the company tax rate should not be reduced.

    Keep the company tax rate where it is. Its not like its astronomicaly high after all.

  30. @ guytaur, 39

    In principle, I agree – but greasing the wheels a little for the changeover can’t hurt (criticism of the change could then be deflected by saying that for companies that did their books honourably, the policy was actually a tax cut), not to mention that a cut of a couple of percent would be stimulus for the economy (through small businesses, chiefly) while still being net-revenue-positive for the Budget.

    Everybody wins.

  31. Meant to add this para to 38.

    [CLIMATE INACTION IS THEFT: While today’s debate will focus on the budget, degradation of the environment is really the most shameful example of young Australians being massively screwed by the Baby Boomers. If the Abbott government wants to make good on its intergenerational theft mantra, then it must take real action on climate change.]

  32. AS

    No the community loses. Reducing company taxes is the wrong way to go. I am not arguing to increase tax rates to 50% Just that they should not be cut.

    Fixing companies that are avoiding paying that rate is a different issue. That of compliance.

  33. Inter Generational Report

    When the report is handed down the first thing journalists should do is establish the context or parameters of the report. If as Bowen says there is “Labor Chapter” the obvious question is ..does the report go back and analyse the impact of Howard Costello Tax Cuts, if this is the start of Government intergenerational revenue loss the Liberals should be held accountable..
    Chris Bowen..
    “We also know of course that the government has included a chapter on the Labor Party…and yet the Treasurer has the hide to claim this is not a political document. What he is doing is he is using Intergenerational Report as a prop to help his flailing campaign to sell his unfair budget.”

  34. @ guytaur, 43

    I’m no believer in the excesses of trickle-down (I’m quite a Keynesian, in fact), but even I’m not sure how you could argue that a situation in which big multinationals are paying the actual stated rate of tax (more than they pay now), local businesses (who can’t use offshore schemes to reduce their taxes) get a tax cut AND the Budget is better off by billions every year is a loss for the community compared to what we have now.

    I’m genuinely curious as to how you have come to that conclusion though, so please do elaborate.

  35. @danielhurstbne: O’Dwyer tells Sky the Intergenerational Report to be released today is like a stocktake. Ripoll says #IGR “is a complete work of fiction

  36. 35 years of budget surpluses under Abbott’s plan. Does this man even understand how economies work, or the purpose of a budget surplus? Costello told us he was an economic illiterate; it seems he overpraised Abbott.

  37. The IGR was supposed to be out by now. Just like Triggs’ report, it has been held back. In this case one can only suspect, rewritten. That’s in line with everything this govt does.

  38. guytaur @46

    Problem is, Hockey and his crew will use the work of fiction to excuse every rotten thing they try to pass, and blame Labor (what’s new!).

  39. Pyne ‘playing chicken’ with the Senate again re: pass fee deregulation or the research funding gets it

    because bullying the senate has produced great results so far

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