BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

The weekly poll aggregate reading suggests the Coalition has recovered only to the extent of restoring its position before Australia Day, with Tony Abbott’s personal ratings remaining in the doldrums.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate finds the Coalition retaining last week’s big gain without significantly adding to it, except to the extent of a 0.4% increase on two-party preferred and a gain in New South Wales on the seat projection. Coming after this week’s unexpectedly strong result from Ipsos, Coalition-supporting readers of this blog (I know you’re out there) might have been hoping for more. There are two reasons they don’t have it, the first being that Ipsos has had the Coalition tracking solidly higher than its rivals over its four published federal polls, and a bias adjustment is being applied to account for this. So far as BludgerTrack is presently concerned, the Ipsos poll had Labor on 52.5%, rather than the published 51%. The second factor is this week’s Essential Research result. As is so often the case, Essential’s published fortnightly rolling average recorded no change this week. However, BludgerTrack is privy to Essential’s weekly numbers, and while I ordinarily don’t give anything away about them, dedicated observers of BludgerTrack could ascertain for themselves that a stronger result for Labor was concealed by fortnightly smoothing and possibly a little rounding.

It’s a different story on the leadership ratings, where Ipsos’s numbers have caused a particularly large movement in Tony Abbott’s favour on net approval, albeit from a disastrously low base. There are also two data points now to indicate that things might be going a bit awry for Bill Shorten, who long seemed to be tracking just below parity, but is now approaching minus double figures. Abbott has accordingly made up ground on preferred prime minister, which reflects voting intention in being back to where it was before Australia Day. But so far as net approval is concerned, Abbott remains well south of his previous low point after the budget.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,925 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. Zoomster

    What does having an external sector have to do with a currency issuer’s control of a fiat currency? The government issues the currency, not the external sector or the private sector. Remember that we are talking about fiat currencies here, not the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates. If a government promises to convert its currency to gold at a fixed exchange rate (such as the 35 dollars an ounce rate the US Government used to promise but had to abandon in 1971) or to another country’s currency at a fixed exchange rate, then there is a financial limit on the government’s spending of its own currency. This is because it needs to maintain sufficient reserves of gold or the other country’s currency in order to defend the peg, and it cannot create gold or another country’s currency ex nihilo. It can only acquire those other things through trade transactions or by finding buyers of its own currency.

  2. I wonder what the Labor Brains Trust here would be saying if… lets say… a News Corp Editor… said they were “going to get”… let’s say Gillard… or Rudd… or Shorten, if they would be so defensive of the media outlet.

    Interesting days

  3. You can watch QandA live via iview. I am doing it right now north of the Tweed

    I remember Jones mentioning it at the end of last weeks show.

    Streaming live on Iview

  4. Happiness,

    The U.N lecturing us on how we run our refugee camps is a bit like Kim Jong Il giving a lecture on Human Rights.

    Go on Google Images and search for “U.N Refugee Camp”

    Glass houses and all that…

  5. Nicholas

    so your assumption is that Greece already has a reserve of gold to back up its currency? If they don’t, how do they get it?

  6. If there was a drinking game with TBA parroting LNP talking points in here – we’d all be carried off in ambulances.

  7. TBA:

    I know you weren’t going to change your view, I was wondering about others here….

    ….or are they more like you than they realise perhaps?

  8. I’m not sure what feminist cred Miranda Devine has but this is what she had to say about Greer.

    [“For the birth-mother of 1960s feminism, Germaine Greer sure isn’t much of a sister.

    Last night on the ABC’s Q&A panel show, she mocked the Prime Minister’s figure, saying Julia Gillard should face the fact she has a “big bum”.

    Greer thinks the PM’s jackets are all wrong because from behind they go “horizontal”. According to her the jackets are cut too narrow at the hips.

    Nice, really nice. No matter whether or not you support the PM’s policies, this is the lowest criticism. Because of her status as a feminist icon, Greer has just legitimised every misogynist to attack Gillard’s appearance. As if they need any encouragement.

    It just shows her whole fem-philosophy was a pose, and because she was a good writer, pushy, reckless, witty and, yes, pretty, she built a career on trashing men and drawing attention to her love-starved self.

    These days she makes a living out of trashing younger women.

    The feminist goddess has feet of clay.”]

  9. Nicholas

    You seem to assume that money has intrinsic value, and that therefore printing more money simply creates more value.

    Money is a symbol. A dollar isn’t worth anything by itself; its value is based on what it can buy.

    You can’t create more things that dollars can buy. So if you create more dollars, the number of them required to buy something increases.

    On the other hand, if people don’t recognise the value of your dollar – and in the case of Greece, it’s hard to see outside agencies accepting that any currency they issued was worth anything (when there is a queue of people claiming that they have dibs on your assets, others are going to be reluctant to join that queue), then your dollar doesn’t buy much.

  10. mikeh:

    Whatever validity Devine’s views hold, you can bet she aired them because it allowed her to sink the boot into an ideological foe in Greer.

    I’d be more interested in seeing her published opinions about the Liberal fundraisers which proffered menus proclaiming JG’s ‘red box’ or whatever it was.

  11. wspoll

    55-45 2PP to ALP

    Coalition 38, Labor 39, Greens 12, Others 11

    Abbott: Satisfied 28, Dissatisfied 63
    Shorten: Satisfied 39, Dissatisfied 42
    Better PM: Abbott 33, Shorten 44

    1161 sample, 6-8 March

  12. confessions

    [Whatever validity Devine’s views hold, you can bet she aired them because it allowed her to sink the boot into an ideological foe in Greer.]

    I thought as much.

  13. Used stomache band for sale. Proven working order and good for another thirty kilos. Budget price with posible tax deductability. Refer column ‘Treasurer for sale’.

  14. [Simon Katich

    Posted Monday, March 9, 2015 at 10:01 pm | Permalink

    Pi$$ off to your stinky beach Barney.

    I am about to light the fire in March in temperate Adelide Hills, thankfully protected from friggin antarctica by all that salty friggin Ocean.

    How was last night?

    Sorry, about the fire, the most common fire around here are the fire flies.

    I vaguely remember those mild winters, I prefer mine hot and sultry.

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