BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

The weekly poll aggregate reading suggests the Coalition has recovered only to the extent of restoring its position before Australia Day, with Tony Abbott’s personal ratings remaining in the doldrums.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate finds the Coalition retaining last week’s big gain without significantly adding to it, except to the extent of a 0.4% increase on two-party preferred and a gain in New South Wales on the seat projection. Coming after this week’s unexpectedly strong result from Ipsos, Coalition-supporting readers of this blog (I know you’re out there) might have been hoping for more. There are two reasons they don’t have it, the first being that Ipsos has had the Coalition tracking solidly higher than its rivals over its four published federal polls, and a bias adjustment is being applied to account for this. So far as BludgerTrack is presently concerned, the Ipsos poll had Labor on 52.5%, rather than the published 51%. The second factor is this week’s Essential Research result. As is so often the case, Essential’s published fortnightly rolling average recorded no change this week. However, BludgerTrack is privy to Essential’s weekly numbers, and while I ordinarily don’t give anything away about them, dedicated observers of BludgerTrack could ascertain for themselves that a stronger result for Labor was concealed by fortnightly smoothing and possibly a little rounding.

It’s a different story on the leadership ratings, where Ipsos’s numbers have caused a particularly large movement in Tony Abbott’s favour on net approval, albeit from a disastrously low base. There are also two data points now to indicate that things might be going a bit awry for Bill Shorten, who long seemed to be tracking just below parity, but is now approaching minus double figures. Abbott has accordingly made up ground on preferred prime minister, which reflects voting intention in being back to where it was before Australia Day. But so far as net approval is concerned, Abbott remains well south of his previous low point after the budget.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,925 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. For example (from Queensland):


    414 Power to issue subpoena
    (1) This rule applies to the following subpoenas—

    (a) subpoenas for production;
    (b) subpoenas to give evidence;
    (c) subpoenas for production and to give evidence.
    (2) The court may, on its own initiative or at the request of a party, issue a subpoena requiring the attendance of the person specified in the subpoena before the court or before an officer, examiner, referee or other person having authority to take evidence.

    (3) A request for a subpoena—

    (a) must specify the name or designation by office or position of the person to whom the subpoena is directed unless the registrar otherwise directs or the court otherwise orders; and
    (b) must be filed.
    (4) If a party files a request for a subpoena, the registrar may issue the subpoena.

    (5) A subpoena must not be filed.

    (6) A subpoena to give evidence may be addressed to 1 or more persons.

    (7) The name or designation by office or position of the person to whom the subpoena is directed must appear on it before it is issued.

    Example of designation by office or position—
    the proper officer of XYZ Pty Ltd
    (8) A subpoena requiring a person to produce a document or thing must include an adequate description of the document or thing.

    (9) A person to whom a subpoena is directed must comply with it.

  2. [1837
    Posted Monday, March 9, 2015 at 8:33 pm | PERMALINK

    Yep, the Forum website catches Hockey with his pants down. He can’t have it both ways: either he was engaged with its objectives, or his professed ignorance shows him up as a hillbilly schmuck. Whichever way you look at it, should such a person really be the nation’s Treasurer?
    So can someone tell me whose thinking it was to launch this case?

    Re disgruntled members of the NSF, I wonder if the SMH has found someone to testify that they were promised the ‘Lobster’.

  3. Tricot@1764

    Adrian – re Princes Highway – I used this example as it was part of my address once upon a time.

    We always were …..Princes Highway …..never Princess Highway as some think.

    The dropping of the possessive in a name place is quite common, probably because the said possessive sign is more often than not, ignored.

    I understand that the government departments responsible for naming things – roads, mountains, waterfalls and so on – decided some time ago that there shalt be no apostrophes in any geographical name.

  4. Re oceans.
    Generally oceans have a moderating effect.
    So if you don’t have large landmasses like Russia, Europe and Canada at high latitudes then the climate will be moderated.
    Note I am not a climate scientist…

  5. Thanks BB. I’m a bit naive on court procedure – I can understand a person being forced to testify in a criminal trial but was unsure about a civil trial. So Fairfax might issue subpoenas to any number of people who would rather not face the spotlight.

  6. [So can someone tell me whose thinking it was to launch this case?]

    Yes, I don’t imagine Hockey foresaw himself contesting the case amidst such negative public opinion of the govt, including in the wake of leadership tension that ties his career to the fortunes of Abbott’s leadership. Another Hockey own goal perhaps?

  7. [fine in a closed system. The second Greece has to buy something from outside, they’re in trouble.]

    I suspect they’d find suppliers.

  8. [Re disgruntled members of the NSF, I wonder if the SMH has found someone to testify that they were promised the ‘Lobster’.]

    There will be someone rich enough – or poor enough – not to need Joe Hockey. There always is. That’s how this all got started at ICAC. Remember, it was ICAC investigating the funnelling of developer donations to the state Libs via organizations ike the North Sydney Forum that got the ball rolling on all this.

    Anyone reading that web site would see Joe plastered all over it. They would see it in black and white and several other colors) that Joe is the centerpiece of the entire thing.

    If Matt Collins, SC, is savvy he’ll have discovered there IS a REAL North Sydney Chamber Of Commerce and that Joe endorsed it over a year ago, with leering photograph, rendering his story about wanting to set one up via the Forum certainly worth following up.

    The REAL Chamber Of Commerce has been in existence since at least 2009. If Joe didn’tknow about it, then he wasn’t doing his job. They charge a lot less than the Forum too, for membership, more than 1/20th as much for the highest order of membership.

    Joe can get away with faffing around in QT, or to Gallery hacks on the Doors to his heart’s content. This is a different ball game: it’s a proper Court, with a judge and everything. There are serious penalties for bullshitting them. People take oaths to tell the truth. Judges evaluate a witness’s veracity.

    It doesn’tmatter whether Joe’s old pa was in tears or not. It’s the truth that matters.

    The Treasurer was clearly touted as being for sale. Access at private “boardroom” dinners was promised, and presumably delivered. Yet Joe has forgoteen about who was there, what they wanted and even whether they happened at all.

    Something’s got to give here. You can’t keep that many balls in the air for that long and hope you don’t get hit on the head.

    I don’t think Hockey takes this action – one he started, by the way – seriously enough. He doesn’t realize just how vulnerable he is. He’s not the “fat little wog boy” (Joe’s own words from his ill-fated biography) who’s the apple of everyone’s eye anymore. He’s the Treasurer of Australia and he is required to tell the truth to the Court, which is the one (dare I say it?) forum the ordinary man – well, one with a lazy million or so – has to keep his government honest.

    Joe should not think he can nobble a judge just because he’s an important person, to wit, the Treasurer. That’s for the flunkies at North Sydney forum level, who were conned into thinking they’d have some influence over national budgetary decisions because thay (a) ante’d-up $22k and (b) lived in North Sydney. In fact I wonder just how many memeber of Joe’s “North Sydney Chamber of Commerce” were actually from North Sydney? Ditto for the droogs who listen to 2GB and inhabit it) and think Fairfax has a hide even defending Joe’s defamation suit.

  9. Cripes, if you lie down with dogs, you get up with fleas.

    [There has been a surge of interest in Australia’s immigration system in the UK after Nigel Farage, the leader of the UK Independence Party, said his party would bring in an “Australian-style” regime.

    “Let’s be honest, the only way forward is UKIP’s Australian-style points system proposal, and the only way to ensure this is by voting UKIP in May,” Mr Farage said in a statement released earlier this month.]

  10. At the end of the excellent story on ADF PTSD lack of response for veterans story Kerry O Brien confirmed next week Four Corners is doing Libspill

  11. The Southern hemisphere has a much more moderate climate the the Northern because between 40 degrees South and the Antarctic Circle the percantage of land is almost negligible (with apologies to Tasmanians). This greatly moderates the climate. .

  12. BB

    Yep. Politicians must hate going to court. It’s not like a press conference with largely tame hacks. Or an interview on ABC TV. They can’t just ignore the question and stick to the talking points and blame Labor.

    Counsel will keep coming back to the question until he gets an answer.

  13. [Counsel will keep coming back to the question until he gets an answer.]

    A little birdie tells me he certainly will.

  14. [Politicians must hate going to court.]

    Then why start court actions?

    Joe is as thick as a Rugby sock full of lead washers.

  15. Interesting Guytaur: 4 Corners on Libs spill. But perhaps that implies, doesn’t it, that the programme may not include the documents confirming the Abbott-Shinzo Abe deal that has been speculated upon for some time? After all, if 4 Corners had this explosive document, the programme would be billed differently – not so much on Libs spill as on this major defence project. Unless, I suppose, 4 Corners is trying to fly under the radar.

  16. Boerwar@1843

    Barney in Saigon

    Posted Monday, March 9, 2015 at 8:30 pm | Permalink

    The Southern Ocean is unique in that it is continuous around the world circumnavigating Antarctica.

    It is reason we don’t experience the extremes of weather seen in the Northern Hemisphere in winter.

    I have seen this numerous times before and had accepted it in the sort of way you accept things as being axiomatic.

    Why is it so?

    There’s nothing magical about it.

    We don’t experience the extremes of weather in the northern hemisphere because we don’t poke far enough down towards the south pole.

    Melbourne is at around 37.8 degrees latitude south, the equivalent latitude in the northern hemisphere includes for example Sicily.

    Madrid is further towards the pole than Melbourne, at 40.4 degrees north.

    If we go to the furthest south of the island of Tasmania, South East Cape, it is at 43°39′ South.

    This is about the latitude of Rome, Italy, at 41.9 degrees north, or Bologna, Italy, at 44.5 degrees north.

    London England is at 51.5 degrees north. Hobart, with a not dissimilar climate, is at 42.9 degrees south, nearly nine degrees closer to the equator than London. London is warmed by the gulf stream, Vermont in contrast, at about the same latitude as Hobart gets chilly weather because it has a continental climate.

  17. Zoomster #1711

    “Although the Macquarie dictionary describes it as a noun only, it then uses examples such as ‘the loan of a book’.”

    Your use of “Although …….. , it then ……….. ” seems to imply that your understanding is that in “the loan of a book” that “loan” is a verb”.

    Since you are a teacher, I hope that I am misreading you. In that phrase, “loan” is not a verb.

  18. [Boerwar

    Posted Monday, March 9, 2015 at 8:54 pm | Permalink

    Barney in Saigon

    Posted Monday, March 9, 2015 at 8:30 pm | Permalink

    The Southern Ocean is unique in that it is continuous around the world circumnavigating Antarctica.

    It is reason we don’t experience the extremes of weather seen in the Northern Hemisphere in winter.

    I have seen this numerous times before and had accepted it in the sort of way you accept things as being axiomatic.

    Why is it so?

    The sun is setting and the beach is calling, but I answer you anyway.

    It’s basic physics.

    It takes a lot less energy to change the temperature of a solid than what is required for a liquid.

    Consider a swimming pool with a concrete surround. On a sunny day the concrete will warm up quickly while the water in the pool will stay relatively unchanged.

    In the Northern Hemisphere we have large land masses in the upper latitudes, (Canada, Scandinavia, Russia and Siberia) these regions experience permafrosts in winter and can cool down to extremely low temperatures.

    Air as it flows over a surface picks up the temperature of that surface and hence is cooled to these extremely low temperatures and so temperatures of -30 deg C and lower are not uncommon.

    In the Southern Hemisphere air traveling from the south to the north is moving over ocean, ie salt water, which from memory has a freezing point of -1.2 deg C. So unfrozen sea water is going to be warmer than this, in most cases considerably warmer, once again from memory along the southern coast of Australia the ocean temperature is about 13 deg C. These ocean temperatures are quite stable for the reasons outlined above.

    As result the air from the south is relatively warm when the reach Southern Australia and hence the much milder winters.

    The reverse is true in summer when we experience heat waves in southern Australia. These correspond to strong northerly winds bring air down from central Australia. The land can heat up a large amount so when this heat is transferred to the air and transported south extreme temperatures are experienced in both central and southern Australia. Relief normally in the form of a front coming from the south west bringing cooler air from over the Southern Ocean.

    That’s the basic nuts and bolts of the science and by no a rigorous treatment so don’t get picky, plus it’s definitely beach time as the sun has just dropped below the eaves.

  19. Geezus but Q&A is how borement tonight.

    It needs a few hairy-arsed blokes to add a bit of spunk to the proceedings.

  20. “@nathvalvo: It may take Julie Bishop a while to get used discussing issues with other females around her. #QandA”

  21. So ABC24 stopped showing Qanda live.

    Not that I’ll miss it especially, but still. Wonder what prompted that decision.

  22. Thanks for the replies on why we are luckier than the people who have to walk upside down AND put up with shit weather on the wrong side of the planet.

  23. psyclaw

    it’s a context thing. The post I was responding to objected to ‘loan’ being used in a similar way – I thought the Macquarie reference was thus ironic.

  24. 1864

    Don`t forget New Zealand, Argentina, Chile, Heard Island and McDonald Islands, the Falklands, South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands, and several others.

  25. I avoid watching QandA in much the same way that I’d avoid watching bear-baiting if it was shown at a similar hour.

  26. I wonder whether someone will ask Greer what was she thinking when she sank the slipper, in grossly unfeminist terms, into our first female PM.

  27. [I wonder whether someone will ask Greer what was she thinking when she sank the slipper, in grossly unfeminist terms, into our first female PM.]

    You mean that wasn’t the first question to Greer on this supposedly IWD edition of Qanda?

  28. Boerwar.. Yes tremendous pressure on 4 Corners if indeed this document exists. So far Graham Richardson said in a column he had it on good authority such a document exists, and Chris Uhlmann alluded to the possibility that 4 Corners might have it.

    This made me wonder: Is there still such a thing as a D Notice or whatever if it was called – whereby the government can prohibit publication based on national security considerations? (And ban any publication about the prohibition on publication).

  29. Re TTF&B: true, but they plus Patagonia still add up to about 5% of the Earth’s surface between 40 and 65 degrees South.

  30. Crabbe doing a better job moderating than Jones. Would like to see her host a regular panel and see how she goes.

    I suspect she would do well. Panel host night just be something she is good at.

  31. Barney
    Pi$$ off to your stinky beach Barney.

    I am about to light the fire in March in temperate Adelide Hills, thankfully protected from friggin antarctica by all that salty friggin Ocean.

  32. [1840

    They need to shift those savings from private accounts to the public sector. They need to impose and carry through deep and far-reaching fiscal reform.

    The purchasing power of the private sector in Greece is weak enough as it is. You spend less if your wage has dropped sharply or disappeared entirely. How on earth would it help the Greek economy to take even more money out of the private sector?]

    This is capable of being solved by addressing sectoral imbalances. Dis-saving in the public sector is matched by saving in the private sector. Greece has managed to achieve a primary surplus in the public sector, though not by improving tax collections so much as by reducing transfer payments. If Greece could collect its taxes, it would easily be able to increase its social spending and meet its external obligations. Of course, private savings would decline. Naturally, Greeks of all stripes are opposed to this. They’ve managed to evade taxes hitherto and they will keep on doing so. But they will have to relinquish some of their loot.

    This will be good for the Greek economy. These “illicit” savings are frequently not spent in the Greek economy anyway. They are sent out of the country. By capturing unpaid taxes and recycling them into domestic programs, Greece can increase domestic demand, increase social spending and improve national savings. They will also make it worth holding assets in Greece, improving credit flows and fostering investment.

    Whatever path Greece follows, it must enact thorough-going fiscal reform. It must collect sufficient taxes from its citizens eventually, either within the Euro system or not.

  33. g

    Ms Crabbe is not being tested very much. It is a love-in.
    That said, Crabbe is allowing Greer and Bishop to dominate proceedings.

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