Essential Research once again fails to show much sign of the post-Australia Day collapse in Coalition support evident from other pollsters, with two-party preferred still at 54-46 (only one point weaker for the Coalition than before Australia Day) and primary votes unchanged on last week at 39% for the Coalition, 41% for Labor and 10% for the Greens, excepting a one point drop for Palmer United to 2%. But once again, there is still plenty of bad news for Tony Abbott in the subsequent attitudinal questions, with only 28% saying Tony Abbott should be kept as Liberal leader until the election under all circumstances versus 22% who went for an option allowing him six months to improve, and 39% believing he should go right now. Among Coalition voters, the results are 48%, 34% and 14%. Support for the party room’s decision to reject the spill motion is evenly divided at 40-40, becoming 71-18 among Coalition supporters. The poll reports 49% of respondents expecting Labor to win the next election versus just 23% for the Coalition, and 61% considering it unlikely Tony Abbott will still be leader at the time versus on 20% for likely.
On top of that, a semi-regular suite of questions on which party is most trusted to handle various issues actually finds movement in the Coalition’s favour on economic management, education, climate change and treatment of asylum seekers since the question was last asked at June, albeit that the poll was conducted at the lowest ebb of post-budget backlash. Other results are effectively unchanged, the Coalition retaining strong leads on security and the war on terrorism (up three to 19%), economic management, controlling interest rates and treatment of asylum seekers, but marked down heavily on protection of the environment, and Labor strongly favoured on health, education and industrial relations (UPDATE: I should observe that a flaw in Essential Research’s “difference” column is that it shows Liberal minus Labor, when respondents are in fact given a third choice for the Greens. Presumably Labor would have generally better “difference” ratings otherwise). The poll also finds 44% opposed to the government’s data retention policy with 40% in support, and 37% holding a strong view that submarines should be built in Australia, 34% believing it should only be so if the cost is similar to alternative options, and 12% requiring that the cost be lower.
[Perhaps he’s growing up a bit.]
Or keeping better company.
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
ISIS kill innocent men women and children in order to terrorise.
These guys in Bali…strapped drugs to others using them as mules to get drugs into Australia to sell and make a profit without a care for the destruction they would cause the individuals and their families, and any victims of the crimes committed to obtain the money to pay these drug traffickers.
They broke the law. The law states the death penalty…they are not in a position to cry “poor me”.
Simon Katich
Agree entirely on tsunami aid point.
It’s very poor form indeed to freely give aid at a time of unprecedented tragedy, then bring it up later as some kind of bargaining chip.
It achieves three bad outcomes all at once: taints the original giving; annoys the hell out of the Indonesians; reduces any small chance of the Bali two getting a last-minute reprieve.
That’s quite an achievement.
sprocket
being out of his depth is nothing new for Barnaby. remember when he drove into the flooded creek and wrote off the $80000 4WD?
http://www.smh.com.au/drive/motor-news/joyces-drive-through-flooded-creek-writes-off-80000-official-car-20110214-1atnk.html
PtMD
[Why is it ok to condemn ISIS burning a prisoner alive in a cage and not ok to tell the Indonesians that their application of the death penalty puts them in the same class?]
Those prisoners didn’t agree to live by ISIS’ rules, for one. Citizens of Indonesia and visitors have (in some sense) accepted those rules.
Though I will admit that I didn’t sign a contract with any nation when I was born.
Also, have we seen any polls telling us what the Indonesian people think? Or are we too busy conflating the government with the people?
When it comes to our own government and systems, I’ve noticed most people don’t seem to want to accept any responsibility for them :P.
Pardon my asking, but where was all the moral outrage when the Indonesians caught up with those who were part of the Bali bombing and put them before a firing squad?
The Smiling Assassin used to get up the noses of many, and secretly, many were happy to see his smiling face no more.
I do not believe in capital punishment but one cannot have one’s cake and eat it as it were.
We also tend to forget/downplay that other foreign nationals have already been put to death with others to come in the near future – apart from the two Oz guys.
Agreed on that point Tricot.
Also, Display Name, I’ve seen vox pop among ordinary Indonesians strongly in favour of the tough line against drugs.
More broadly, this sort of thing plays terribly among ordinary Indonesians. They see Australia as arrogant, smug and wanting to get special treatment.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m very opposed to this and all imposition of the death penalty (though the Bali bombers strained my position a little) but Abbott getting on his high horse and citing the tsunami aid is beyond unhelpful.
Re Tricot @608: Pardon my asking, but where was all the moral outrage when the Indonesians caught up with those who were part of the Bali bombing and put them before a fIring squad?
We choose our battles.
alias
[ They see Australia as arrogant, smug and wanting to get special treatment]
Considering the behaviour of so many tourists who could blame them ?
I think at issue here is that deep down Abbott thinks these 2 young guys should get the chop. Whether the voters thinks so is a bit hard to pin down depending on what polls you choose to believe.
Anyway, Abbott is just monkeying up for the local support group and Indonesia have had more than enough time to write him off as an idiot and guess he’s true beliefs.
In short, Abbott has no currency here or there.
Jackol @596:
(Re: an assumption in the CPA report that unemployment would hit zero)
[I wouldn’t describe such an assumption as “heroic”.]
Neither would I. “Fantastic” comes to mind…as in, “rooted in fantasy”. It’s a sad and sorry thing to see once-respected Australian bodies engaging in Paul Ryan Math.
Steve777
[We choose our battles.]
And the reason for choosing this particular one?
Ctari quoted this at #573
[Australia would be $27.5 billion a year better off with a 15 per cent GST on everything, research published by leading accountancy group CPA Australia suggests.]
But he missed this equally credible report:
[Australia would be $umpteen billion a year better off with a 15 per cent income tax increase on earnings of $1 million replacing GST, research not published by a fella named fredex suggests.]
I advocated for the non-execution of the Bali bombers, firstly on my opposition to the DP, and that making martyrs of them was counterproductive.
The argument I hear is that these men did the crime and must pay the price. Fine, if the Indonesians (and Australians who support these prisoners DPs) wear the stench of state murder. A few lines on a page of a legislation does not make the act any less heinous than ISIS burning a man alive in a cage. A group of people get together and decide it is OK to kill someone, whether that is a mob in a town square or mob who write it down in a rule book, when the match is lit or the trigger pulled, it is the same act.
What would be a culturally effective message for an Australian PM to send publicly to the Indonesian President? How about a message about the nature of compassion and friendship between two peoples, and the capacity of the human soul for redemption? What if the Australian PM publicly begged the Indonesian President to show mercy to two reformed men who have a useful contribution to make to talking people out of joining the drug trade?
Aussie at 602 agree take responsibility for one actions. The team were detected on this occasion (how many prior?) but the resultant Chan transformation has been dramatic. he went from
. Cant say if that was so I guess detection works wonders as he is now totally redeemable. Oh for the subsequent outrage here I don’t judge every one by there appearance – only convicted drug master minds.
I seem to recall that Australia did actually put some kind of formal protest in about the Bali bomber being executed.
Display Name @614: fair question, difficult to answer. Basically, the Bali bombers committed the sort heinous crime that if the death penalty were ever justified, this would be it. And they killed more Indonesians than Australians. In that case I would say let the Indonesians decide. I wouldn’t lift a finger to save them.
In the case of the Bali Nine, they committed a serious crime, are guilty beyond reasonable doubt but didn’t killl anyone. The arguments in favour of executing them would apply to drunk drivers and unsafe builders (like whoever built that wall that collapsed in Melbourne a couple of years ago). They were footsoldiers in a criminal operation where the bigwigs almost always get away with it.
Well, we can’t always be consistent.
And as for the argument that Indonesians may or will think we are being colonial superiorists, I argue that it depends which club they want to belong to. It is their choice to make and others to judge. You know, like they do those clemency applications.
This is the club Australia is in:
[Countries whose laws do not provide for the death penalty for any crime.
View this information in table format
Albania, Andorra, Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Bhutan, Bolivia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Burundi, Cambodia, Canada, Cape Verde, Colombia, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, Cote D’Ivoire, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Djibouti, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Estonia, Finland, France, Gabon, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Holy See, Honduras, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kiribati, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macedonia, Malta, Marshall Islands, Mauritius, Mexico, Micronesia, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Mozambique, Namibia, Nepal, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Niue, Norway, Palau, Panama, Paraguay, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Rwanda, Samoa, San Marino, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Serbia including Kosovo, Seychelles, Slovakia, Slovenia, Solomon Islands, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Timor-Leste, Togo, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Tuvalu, Ukraine, United Kingdom, Uruguay, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu, Venezuela ]
This is the club Indonesia is a member of:
[
Countries and territories that retain the death penalty for ordinary crimes.
Afghanistan, Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belarus, Belize, Botswana, Chad, China, Comoros, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Cuba, Dominica, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Gambia, Guatemala, Guinea, Guyana, India, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Jamaica, Japan, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Lesotho, Libya, Malaysia, Nigeria, North Korea, Oman, Pakistan, Palestinian Authority, Qatar, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Syria, Taiwan, Thailand, Trinidad And Tobago, Uganda, United Arab Emirates, United States Of America, Vietnam, Yemen, Zimbabwe
]
This a club were were in from after the execution of Ronald Ryan until we took the DP off our books.
[Countries which retain the death penalty for ordinary crimes such as murder but can be considered abolitionist in practice in that they have not executed anyone during the past 10 years and are believed to have a policy or established practice of not carrying out executions. The list also includes countries which have made an international commitment not to use the death penalty
Algeria, Benin, Brunei, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Congo Republic of, Eritrea, Ghana, Grenada, Kenya, Laos, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Maldives, Mali, Mauritania, Mongolia, Morocco, Myanmar, Nauru, Niger, Pa]pua New Guinea, Russian Federation, Sierra Leone, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Suriname, Swaziland, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Tonga, Tunisia, Zambia
]
http://www.amnesty.org/en/death-penalty/abolitionist-and-retentionist-countries
PtMD
[A few lines on a page of a legislation does not make the act any less heinous …]
[… A group of people get together and decide it is OK to kill someone]
It’s not that the rules are written down. It’s not some *arbitrary* group deciding that it’s ok to kill *anyone*. It’s a group, deciding and agreeing within itself that only those people who agree to the rules will be considered part of the group and subjected to them.
That’s the difference from ISIS’ killings.
Though as I’ve said, I didn’t sign any contract when I was born.
Also, while I’m arguing there is a difference between ISIS’ killings and Indonesia’s executions, nowhere have I said that Indonesia’s executions are acceptable.
When Abbott says “we” helped Indonesia out after the tsunami he should be saying the Rudd Government. Abbott has been cutting international aid since he gained power. Easy to see where Abbott’s thoughts on humanitarian aid lie. Similar to his compassion towards asylum seekers. Great advertisement to the Roman Catholic faith. Not. Utter and complete hypocrite.
Whilst I do not agree with the death penalty, we should not be using humanitarian aid as a bargaining chip.
Tom.
[Those prisoners didn’t agree to live by ISIS’ rules, for one. Citizens of Indonesia and visitors have (in some sense) accepted those rules.]
Surely if you venture onto ISIS territory you agree to abide by their rules?
With all this debate about the death penalty, I am reminded that the establishment of the Australian penal colony was, in many respects, the result of a public backlash against the death penalty in England.
[Whilst I do not agree with the death penalty, we should not be using humanitarian aid as a bargaining chip.]
Agreed.
On the other hand, I think it would be acceptable to say “in light of the fact that AFP assistance lead directly to this outcome, we may not be able to permit similar assistance in the future.”
cud chewer
The real world is of course much messier than my nice, clean, theoretical argument.
Now I feel compelled to point out for a third time that I didn’t sign any contract when I was born.
While I oppose Capital punishment in australia, I am remarkably indifferent to the fate of the two drug traffickers.
They were caught with 9kg of Heroin and there are plenty of indicators that this was not their only adventure in this area of business opportunity.
They paid their money and made their choice.
I’m actually more outraged abot female genital circumcision. So was our only genuine Aussie Princess.
http://www.theage.com.au/world/princess-mary-makes-humanitarian-visit-to-ethiopia-20150218-13hwd8.html
Re Abbott bringing up the tsunami aid given to Indonesia.
Does anyone else think this sounds like a bloke who takes a woamn out on a date and at the end of the night states, “Hey, I paid for dinner, now you have to put out”.
Dan,
While it is probably not as crass as you put it, there is a certain desperation about Tony’s blatherings today.
he is certainly trying very hard to pretend that he cares.
GG
I see where you are coming from, but from my perspective either you think capital punishment is wrong or not – regardless of where it might take place.
The fact that China, Japan and the USA (in many States) still use this form of retribution (among many other nations) suggests the moral high ground is not all that straight forward.
[I’m actually more outraged abot female genital circumcision. So was our only genuine Aussie Princess.]
It’s a pity we can’t be against both capital punishment and female genital mutilation.
Good on Tony Abbott for stating the bleeding obvious. The softly softly nicey nicey DFAT approach clearly hasnt worked. Making it explicitly clear that we as a country will be pissed if they are executed is language the Indonesians will respond to. Just like stopping the boats – if Australia is firm and direct Indo will respond.
I think the right approach from our government is to ask nicely if we can judge them under our own system while lobbying them to change their system.
Uh oh…
…and PNG is now on the execution bandwagon too:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-18/png-government-defends-death-penalty-following-new-guidelines/6143738
[Recent reports suggest both Indonesia and Thailand have stepped in with offers of financial assistance and expertise.]
Well ain’t that just neighbourly of them.
Puff
Those ISIS killers shouldn’t face a death penalty?
Jake @635
Was it the Calliphora vomitoria ?
Watching the local news on commercial TV seems to suggest that the Indonesians really understand Abbott.
They, like most of us, recognise him as a blind, blundering fool whose fitness for domestic leadership of this country was always going to be problematic.
His current smashing of plates in the international arena also confirms his total unsuitability.
While he appeals to his 35% Redneck base, or is it base Rednecks (?) the rest of thinking Australia cringes.
Poroti,
Yup…
Those ISIS killers should not face a death penalty. No one learns anything from the DP other than it is okay to kill someone if you have the power over them to do so. Kind of, “you killed them because you could and now I am killing you because I can.”
I didn’t know the boats had been stopped?
I gather quite a few have been turned round though as all this was shrouded in secrecy (as opposed to the bragging about the number of planes in the mid East and the number of bits of ordinance dropped) this is purely speculation.
Only a fool would believe that the Indonesians were not cracking down from their end.
The beauty of it all with the boats is that the Oz electorate has moved on and out of sight and out of mind is all that matters.
The irony for Abbott and the Libs they will get scant thanks for ‘the boats’ as people will be more concerned about the destruction of their standard of living by this so-called ‘adult government’.
CTar1 @573
I will always regard any statement that has “the nation” or “the national good” as applying to the 1%, not the 99%.
If you are talking about removing people from society by killing them, not because of what they have done, but because what their existence will do to the rest of the world, you open up another big debate. If it is OK to kill people for what they have done, then is it ok to kill someone because for as long as they live, they will be a harm to society? Wasn’t that something the Inquisition was all about, and witch burnings?
ESJ,
Well, that’ll learn them. Knowing they have pissed off Australians is probably a happy bonus for the Indonesian Government.
I remember reading a book about a small group of furry little creatures who landed on Earth somewhere from outer space. They had to set up their colony and of course had various problems.
They had one member of the group who tried to organise a takeover of the group because it was his nature to want to control. The conflict was resolved and all was well, except they decided to kill him, not because of what he did, but because his nature was such that another challenge was inevitable, and that threatened the survival of the little colony.
It made me think how complex such issues are. I must find that book and finish it.
Australia can escalate way beyond Indonesias means GG. Why not slap a entry tax for all Bali flights back to Australia for example.
Would Mr Abbott (and his Australian supporters) be saying exactly the same things about how terrible capital punishment was…
… if the Bali Two were being executed for murdering children following a pedophiliac rape session?
Edwina StJohn
Check out some of the russkiy shit the Indonesians have already bought. A friendless Russia would sell them even more advanced shit that realty would put us under the strategic pump.
ESJ
You don’t get the back politics here.
And you apparently have only the dimmest of understandings of the relativities involved.
Your beloved live trade in cattle would probably be first cab off the rank. I imagine that the Nationals would be impressed with that.
There might be hundreds of wooden boats, escorted by Indonesian warships to the Australian territorial waters.
There might be a ban on overflights by QANTAS.
Our Singapore-sourced POL might be denied passage through the Indonesian straits.
If Abbott ramps things up enough, things might get very, very nasty indeed.