Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Spill motion or no spill motion, Essential Research remains stuck where it’s been for three weeks. But it also finds little unconditional support Tony Abbott remaining as prime minister, and few expecting him to do so.

Essential Research once again fails to show much sign of the post-Australia Day collapse in Coalition support evident from other pollsters, with two-party preferred still at 54-46 (only one point weaker for the Coalition than before Australia Day) and primary votes unchanged on last week at 39% for the Coalition, 41% for Labor and 10% for the Greens, excepting a one point drop for Palmer United to 2%. But once again, there is still plenty of bad news for Tony Abbott in the subsequent attitudinal questions, with only 28% saying Tony Abbott should be kept as Liberal leader until the election under all circumstances versus 22% who went for an option allowing him six months to improve, and 39% believing he should go right now. Among Coalition voters, the results are 48%, 34% and 14%. Support for the party room’s decision to reject the spill motion is evenly divided at 40-40, becoming 71-18 among Coalition supporters. The poll reports 49% of respondents expecting Labor to win the next election versus just 23% for the Coalition, and 61% considering it unlikely Tony Abbott will still be leader at the time versus on 20% for likely.

On top of that, a semi-regular suite of questions on which party is most trusted to handle various issues actually finds movement in the Coalition’s favour on economic management, education, climate change and treatment of asylum seekers since the question was last asked at June, albeit that the poll was conducted at the lowest ebb of post-budget backlash. Other results are effectively unchanged, the Coalition retaining strong leads on security and the war on terrorism (up three to 19%), economic management, controlling interest rates and treatment of asylum seekers, but marked down heavily on protection of the environment, and Labor strongly favoured on health, education and industrial relations (UPDATE: I should observe that a flaw in Essential Research’s “difference” column is that it shows Liberal minus Labor, when respondents are in fact given a third choice for the Greens. Presumably Labor would have generally better “difference” ratings otherwise). The poll also finds 44% opposed to the government’s data retention policy with 40% in support, and 37% holding a strong view that submarines should be built in Australia, 34% believing it should only be so if the cost is similar to alternative options, and 12% requiring that the cost be lower.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

714 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. phoenix
    That is the perfect example of his work that I dont like. Catchy, simple and only partly true.

    The west were clearly barbaric. But how does that fit in with your earlier quote on progressing universal whatsits?

    Is the key work “superior” violence or “applying”? If Applying, I would argue there were plenty of failed ‘civilisations’ that were pretty useful in this. If its ‘superiority’, Why did the West have this superiority? Finding Silver in South America? Luck? The willingness to discard principles when suited? Columbian exchange? Warring smaller states within Europe? Should he discard Weber so easily?

    The final sentence in the quote is helpful, the rest is a misty vista….squint and you can kinda see the snow capped mountains. Or is that just thicker mist?

    Edward Said had some more interesting criticisms than I can come up with.

  2. [ imacca

    Power generation within water pipes – ]

    Interesting take on small scale hydro.

    Its the kind of thing that when you see it you think, wow, obvious.

  3. Now, if you couple this:

    [ This is how German engineer Rainer Schramm describes his idea for storing energy under the sea. By using surplus energy to pump water out of a tank at the seabed, the water is simply let back in again when there’s an energy shortfall, driving turbines as it rushes in. The deeper the tank, the more power is generated. ]

    http://www.gizmag.com/sea-floor-energy/27579/

    With a CETO type wave energy unit (which is basically a pump) you would have pretty cool system.

  4. imacca

    The Germans already have a system where excess solar energy is used to pump water up a hill to a reservoir . At night it runs back down the hill to produce energy. Solar power at night as it were.

  5. Water pipes being power generators, it only works for gravity fed pipes not pumped water. I think most water around the world would be pumped.

  6. [530
    Boerwar

    What worries me is that within the Coalition Bishop is losing control of the dialogue and that our resident narcissist is increasingly saying very, very damaging things.

    What worries me are all the people who have dropped their brains out of gear and who appear to believe that emoting is a useful alternative.]

    What saddens me is the thought that Abbott may once again be making political hay from mortal tragedy. He has tried to position himself to profit from the situation whether they are reprieved or not.

    On reflection, his statements also rely on an implied right to make a moral creditor’s claim on Indonesia – a claim that they should now indemnify us for our past generosity. This suggests our help was given in order to buy influence and we’re demanding Indonesia pay up. In this respect, the inference is that we are not friendly equals with Indonesia, but are their economic and moral superiors and they are our clients.

    Can Abbott’s statements procure relief for Chan and Sukumuran? It seems very unlikely, but we cannot know. Most likely, they will simply fuel anger here if they are eventually put to death.

    More generally, this only serves to show us again that capital punishment harms not merely those who perish. It diminishes us all.

    [541
    Douglas and Milko]

    I agree with everything you mention here.

  7. lizzie re Abbott non diplomatic,

    thats another criticism of Huntingon I remember; he didnt rate highly enough domestic political pressures in potential causes for conflict.

    And I dont think he mentioned the potential damage having Tony Abbott as PM can cause. As rational as a cornered rat.

  8. Timothy R

    The excess solar power is used to pump water to a particular height and in doing so gives the water potential energy which, when allowed to act under gravity becomes kinetic energy which is used to power a generator.

  9. Au contraire..I think Abbott’s got it about right re. Indonesia, perhaps just a tad over-egged, but certainly on the right track. It must be hard for him, but he’s doing a reasonable job of it.

    He makes a very good point: we helped them out big-time after the tsunami. We lost lives in the effort (6 from memory in a helicopter crash). Give us something back.

    There is also the point that 10 years on death row is too long. Execution at this stage appears to be arbitrary. Geoffrey Robertson QC has an entire chapter in his book The Justice Game on this very point of law: justice delayed is justice denied and a delayed execution is the most awful example of it.

    I’d also like to see some co-operation between the nations that have prisoners on death row.. a united front.

  10. Let’s be honest – executing Chan and Sukumuran is a big raised middle finger to Australia, and it’s not like our esteemed Government hasn’t given them plenty of reason to want to flip us off.

  11. Sad that it has come to this. A lame duck PM having his words parsed over 2 Australians on death row. If only he hadn’t pissed away whatever political capital he had.

    [Mr Abbott said Australia had helped Indonesia in the past and hoped Indonesia would reciprocate.

    “When Indonesia was struck by the Indian Ocean tsunami Australia sent a billion dollars’ worth of assistance,” he said this morning.

    “We sent a significant contingent of our armed forces to help in Indonesia with humanitarian relief.”

    But Indonesian foreign ministry spokesman Armanatha Nasir warned threats were not part of diplomatic language.

    “No-one responds well to threats,” he said.

    “OK, it will be difficult for me or for Indonesia to see that any fallout in a bilateral relationship only affects one country.

    “I hope the statement made does not reflect the true colours of Australians.”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-18/bali-nine-abbott-asks-indonesia-remember-australias-past-help/6139032

  12. From the article referenced earlier:

    [If you like the basic idea behind the technology, there are smaller similar systems that can be installed within your own home. The Pluvia generates electricity from the flow of rainwater off of rooftops, while the H2O Power radio runs on electricity generated by the flow of shower water.]

    Perhaps urinals could be fitted with micro generators? The members’ bar at Parliament House might be a good place to start a demonstration project.

  13. Listened to Barnyard this morning on Fran’s program deflecting his failure on the Hep-A infected berries from China.

    Did he wriggle?? Did he squirm? Did he accept fault?

    No. He answered each question about why he was asleep at the wheel and doing zilch with a homespun anecdote cum straw man.

    And on the question of “Has the China Free Trade Agreement dropped all standards for our health and safety?” – a question the indolent Fran was reluctant to ask – nothing.

    Sad to say Barnaby Joyce is out of his depth as a minister of the crown.

  14. poroti@557

    imacca

    The Germans already have a system where excess solar energy is used to pump water up a hill to a reservoir . At night it runs back down the hill to produce energy. Solar power at night as it were.

    That is how the Snowy River scheme works also. They use off-peak electricity from coal plants which must always run, to pump to a higher storage pond then sell it at top prices when demand is high.

  15. CTari @573:

    Wait, they’re saying that it’ll increase GDP by $27.5bn?

    ROFLMAO!

    No. No, it won’t. In an economy where consumption is most of all spending, raising consumption-based taxes will result in less economic activity, not more.

    And that’s leaving aside entirely the fact that any likely arrangement to hike the GST will only hit the lower and lower-middle classes…

  16. IS just gets worse. Using humans for organ harvesting.

    [THE Islamic State may be harvesting the organs of victims to finance its terror operations, Iraq’s ambassador to the United Nations says.

    Ambassador Mohamed Alhakim said today that in the past few weeks, bodies with surgical incisions and missing kidneys or other body parts have been found in shallow mass graves.

    “We have bodies. Come and examine them,” he said, referring to the UN Security Council.

    “It is clear they are missing certain parts.”

    Ambassador Alhakim also said a dozen doctors had been “executed” in Mosul for refusing to participate in organ harvesting, before briefing the council on the situation in Iraq, in which he accused ISIS of committing “crimes of genocide” in targeting certain ethnic groups.]

  17. Oh, further to the GST increase proposal: I note that the CPA’s “analyst” doesn’t even pretend that it’s about funding services:

    [CPA’s Alex Malley said the revenue raised could be used to eliminate a range of inefficient taxes, and cut personal income tax, to boost gross domestic product (GDP).]

    What has this country come to, when spivs like this Alex Malley can openly come out and call for taxation on the poor to fund tax relief for the rich, and not get called out for it on the spot?!?!

  18. [The Germans already have a system where excess solar energy is used to pump water up a hill to a reservoir . At night it runs back down the hill to produce energy. Solar power at night as it were.]

    The problem with that is that it is very inefficient and loses about 30% of the energy.

    There are reversible chemical reactions that they hope will store solar energy more efficiently.

  19. BB
    [we helped them out big-time after the tsunami…Give us something back.]

    So, we helped during a disaster that killed 220,000 of your people and you in turn save the 2 prisoners from the death penalty and what? We call it even?

    Disaster relief should not come with such strings and should never be used as a bargaining tool.

  20. [poroti
    Posted Wednesday, February 18, 2015 at 7:34 pm | PERMALINK
    caf

    Widodo was reported as going pretty “tough n drugs” during the election campaign. So they were already behind the 8 ball.]

    He also campaigned on national identity of the “we won’t be pushed around by other countries” kind.

  21. [Disaster relief should not come with such strings and should never be used as a bargaining tool.]

    A nice luxury to say that, and perhaps a good ideological point.

    But two young blokes are about to be shot to death and we don’t have time for theoretical arguments.

  22. I guess what I’m saying is what I said last week: if Abbott has to go up to Jakarta and beg for their lives, then I for one will cut him the political slack to do so.

    Death is permanent.

  23. Diogenes

    Kidney “organ harvesting” horror stories have a long history. What odds that ISIS would have the ability to transport and successfully transplant organs ?

  24. poroti@588

    Diogenes

    Kidney “organ harvesting” horror stories have a long history. What odds that ISIS would have the ability to transport and successfully transplant organs ?

    Never thought of that. Thanks.

  25. @ Matt, 581

    Pretty standard economic rationalist dogma – in their mind, all taxation should be on consumption and income should be completely untaxed.

  26. On the atrocities scale, IS certainly seems to be up there with the worst of them.

    This makes it even more important to deal with them in a way that is devoid of attempted political point scoring or blackening the reputation of Muslims as a group.

  27. If we expect something back, then it’s not generosity, it’s a trade. Which is fine, but then you have to stop calling it generosity.

    As for it being a theoretical discussion. What we say to the Indonesians will have effects. In this case it communicates a particular interpretation of our past actions, which may affect how Indonesia responds. It’s not merely theoretical or idealogical. There are practical effects.

    BB
    [Whatever has to be done should be done. No ifs, buts or maybes.]
    So send in a team to bust them out.

  28. Abbott is saying what I reckon a lot of Aussie people are thinking and saying, “Next time Nature washes away your coast line, you can get stuffed.” Whether it is good politics for a PM to actually say it, I do not know, with yours truly not being known as a diplomatic genius.

    The execution of all these people on death row in Indonesia is wrong on so many levels, it is almost impossible to be cognizant of the Indonesian views about it. Why is it ok to condemn ISIS burning a prisoner alive in a cage and not ok to tell the Indonesians that their application of the death penalty puts them in the same class? I also say that that the Australians who say, let these prisoners be shot are the same as the ISIS thugs who killed that pilot.

    YOu do the crime you do the time, you kill a prisoner you wear the stench.

  29. However, the Australia Institute’s senior economist, Matt Grudnoff, said a large part of the reported economic and income benefits stemmed from an assumption that unemployment would hit zero.

    I wouldn’t describe such an assumption as “heroic”.

  30. poroti

    [Kidney “organ harvesting” horror stories have a long history. What odds that ISIS would have the ability to transport and successfully transplant organs ?]

    It’s pretty easy to harvest the organs and transport them. Most doctors could do that with a bit of extra training.

    There are plenty of transplant centres in the Middle East that don’t ask too many questions about where the organs come from if the price is right.

    The story refers to doctors being killed who refused to perform the harvesting. It sounds plausible.

  31. mikehilliard

    He was on Sky a couple of days back and asked about the HR report. His response was petty good .Both parties were at fault and the attention should be on the content of the report.

    Can’t get fairer than that. It was spot on.

  32. [Bushfire Bill
    Posted Wednesday, February 18, 2015 at 7:46 pm | PERMALINK
    I guess what I’m saying is what I said last week: if Abbott has to go up to Jakarta and beg for their lives, then I for one will cut him the political slack to do so.

    Death is permanent.]

    The trouble is he’s not begging. He’s being the tough guy bully he always is and he’s being called on it by the Indonesians. From the wording I have seen Widodo is making it clear that if Australia resorts to any kind of sanctions over this, Indonesia will retaliate in kind. Presumably this could mean a boycott on things like our beef exports for example.

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