BludgerTrack: 55.9-44.1 to Labor

The regular weekly reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate adds nothing of substance to last week’s result.

As is often the case in the week after a political upheaval, we’re starved for polling this week because everybody took to the field last week to get results out on the eve of the Liberal spill motion. That just leaves the regular weekly Essential Research result, which has made next to no difference to BludgerTrack. This week’s reading is the tiniest bit more favourable to the Coalition on two-party preferred than last week’s, but Labor makes a gain on the seat projection anyway, the vagaries of the state breakdowns having pushed it over the line for a ninth seat in Western Australia. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,364 comments on “BludgerTrack: 55.9-44.1 to Labor”

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  1. My aggregate is at 55.1 after Newspoll, down from 55.9 before it. However this particular wonky Newspoll is carrying a lot of weight in it because Morgan is not out yet.

    It’s a bit of a worry when you’re waiting for Morgan to restore sanity.

  2. Let’s not forget that this poll is based on the preference flows from the 2013 election and all the evidence seems to suggest that Labor will get a larger slice of them next time around if Abbott remains there – probably enough to convert the 53/47 to at least 54/46. (of course if turnbull takes over it’s a whole new ball game).

  3. I’m no longer torn about wanting Abbott gone. We live in very uncertain times. The economy could go down the toilet any day, while major war could break out in Eastern Europe or the Middle East. We can’t have this idiot PM in charge should either happen.

    Abbott – the most divisive PM since WM Hughes, the silliest since Billy McMahon (actually probably sillier) and the nastiest.

  4. matt31@2347

    The Shorton netsat figures give this a bit of an outlier feel to me.

    Likewise here. Shorten’s netsats so far have displayed metronomic mediocrity (since his honeymoon bounce ended) and now supposedly with the Liberals battling massive internal chaos he drops sixteen points in a fortnight? Not likely.

  5. Tom @2350: Re Mr Abbott rushing off to ask for a double dissolution rather than being dumped: after the Prince Philip business, no idiocy on Mr Abbott’s part can be definitively ruled out. But he would run the risk of the most extraordinary personal humiliation, because LNP marginal seat holders, already brassed off with him and fighting for their political lives, would probably refuse to share platforms with him, be seen with him, or allow him anyway near their campaigns. Sauve qui peut.

    And how could a national campaign be run around his leadership? The one the ALP tried with Mr Keating – “you may not like him, but you’ve got to respect him” – was desperate enough, but such a slogan applied to Mr Abbott would send the electorate into hysterics. Respect him????

    I couldn’t imagine a more enjoyable thing to watch.

  6. The Australian headline and blurb is enough –

    Abbott defying Dysfunction.

    Tony Abbott seems to have weathered a leadership crisis to rank ahead of Bill Shorten as the preferred steward of the economy, Newspoll shows.

    they do admit

    But the latest Newspoll survey reveals the government remains well behind Labor, only one-third of people believe the Prime Minister is in touch with voters and 77 per cent consider him arrogant.

    and a few paras further we find

    Voters continued to rank Mr Shorten as a better prime minister, by 43 per cent to 35 per cent,

    that is the “preferred steward of the economy” line was a bit misleading!

  7. The problem for Abbott, and the Coalition more generally, is that now the media is on “poll watch”.

    So any statistical improvement may well be followed just as likely by a “return to mean” where say the next Newspoll is 45-55. Then the headlines are bad bad bad. And two declines in a row can spell doom. Backbenchers on smallish margins start to wonder what job they would do if they are out, Ministers start to wonder if someone else might better be able to keep them in their ministry.

    I personally think Abbott’s net satisfaction is unrecoverable. He has become the politician’s worst nightmare, a running joke. He will lose the next election if he is still leader, or he will get dumped by his party before they go to an election.

    As someone here pointed out – William had to change the Y-axis on the net sat graph to accommodate the “-40 to -50” range. Could William yet be required to do some more formatting to get Abbott’s numbers to fit?

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