As is often the case in the week after a political upheaval, we’re starved for polling this week because everybody took to the field last week to get results out on the eve of the Liberal spill motion. That just leaves the regular weekly Essential Research result, which has made next to no difference to BludgerTrack. This week’s reading is the tiniest bit more favourable to the Coalition on two-party preferred than last week’s, but Labor makes a gain on the seat projection anyway, the vagaries of the state breakdowns having pushed it over the line for a ninth seat in Western Australia. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.
Abbott getting an absolute pasting from moderate Muslim leaders for todays none too subtle dog whistling….
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/feb/23/muslim-leaders-outraged-by-tony-abbotts-admonishment-over-extremism?CMP=share_btn_tw
fess
[…public criticism and disputes between Democrat senators resulted in Stott Despoja’s resignation as leader on 21 August 2002, following presentation by four of her six colleagues (those who had earlier enabled the passage of the GST) with a ten-point ‘reform’ agenda proposed by John Cherry]
[..She announced her resignation in a speech to the Senate, concluding with a “pledge to bring the party back home to the members again” and referring to her reluctance over colleagues’ attitude towards her.
“One colleague, Senator Murray, has said that he does not believe in ultimatums, yet one of his earliest communiques to the public and to me was to `shape up or ship out’.]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natasha_Stott_Despoja#Parliamentary_leadership_and_deposition
John Reidy@2292
Wouldn’t both fall within the MOE?
That’s the simple and most likely situation.
zoom:
Sounds like she was set upon by colleagues hell bent on holding onto their sacred cows.
Guess they got what they wanted for their party, but eventually lost their jobs in the process.
*sigh*
If only more focus was put into deaths by domestic violence than death by domestic terrorism.
As Ive noted many times here, you only get a “security bounce” if you look competent.
Abbott’s government are a bunch of bumbling boobies.
lefty e@2300
I thought it was an outlier too, but because it was so consistent with all the other pollsters, I didn’t know what to make of it..
Maybe Newspoll tonight is an outlier being too low, so I’ll be interested to know what the other Pollsters will get.
Perhaps Essential was right after all.
Hmmmm getting onto men being the victims of domestic violence.
MOE on a sample of 1,212 is about 2.9%.
That will not solve the problem of seven jobseekers for every job. By mathematical identity six in seven “clients” of the unemployment industry will miss out. The current system is based on the employability model. The assumption is that the unemployed don’t have jobs because they are unemployable. Therefore the solution is to render them employable through training sessions about CVs, job interview skills, communication skills etc. It’s a fiction. The problem is lack of jobs. A good CV won’t get you a job that does not exist.
The federal government should simply spend money directly on job creation. Hiring unemployed people is not inflationary because by all the government is buying is a resource (the labour of an unemployed person) which the private sector does not want. Therefore the spending is not competing with other demands for that resource. The government simply needs to create the money (through keystrokes on a computer at the Reserve Bank) so that the Treasury can spend it on hiring people. Bill Mitchell explains how to do it.
This QandA proves why we need government broadcasters.
Able to tackle issues properly without worrying totally about ratings
[bemused
Posted Monday, February 23, 2015 at 10:39 pm | PERMALINK
Hmmmm getting onto men being the victims of domestic violence.]
Is that a problem?
What the?
How does this help my Malcolm?
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes · 28s 28 seconds ago
#Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 47 (+4) ALP 53 (-4) #auspol
Oh look: the much mailigned Prof Triggs of the Human Rights Commission has been declared “CORRECT” in her claim that the length of children’s detention has increased under the LNP
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-23/triggs-detention/6083476
Happiness@2313
Tony’s netstat I suppose.
Happiness
Look at Abbott netsat
In fact, its more than doubled:
[The verdict: Data provided to the commission by the immigration department shows the number of children in detention for over three months more than doubled in the first months after the Coalition took office. In January 2014 it was the highest it had been in five years. Immigration department data shows that the overall number of people in long-term detention, which can be extrapolated to children, continued to increase during 2014, and only declined in late 2014. Professor Triggs is correct.]
Goodnight all.
Awesome Qanda tonight. Explored the issues, had informed, intelligent discussion, and engaged audience members who brought their own experiences to the forum.
Well done, and I’m glad I watched!
Nsd shooshes male victim this is our show
So if the underlying 2PP is 55-45, the current Newspoll and the previous (assuming that it had also had a small sample of around 1,000 to 1,200) would be within the margin of error.
[Tony’s netstat I suppose.
2316
guytaur
Posted Monday, February 23, 2015 at 10:44 pm | PERMALINK
Happiness
Look at Abbott netsat]
Yes, that is slightly more reassuring……
Darn@2312
Not at all. But it is rarely mentioned and it should be.
The other issue that was mentioned and should get more attention is the effect of privacy legislation in preventing sharing of information with those who need to know.
Security bounce: you don’t have irony do you
Nicholas
You seriously need to read up on what gives money worth. It doesn’t have it by itself.
Printing more money does not create more wealth.
MEH
It seems the recent dip was due to leadercrap and the imminent prospect of your Malcolm becoming leader. Dip over once that was nipped in the bud.
That photo posted upthread was doctored. Tony was surrounded by only six two metre tall flags and he wasn’t really wearing a foil hat.
I must admit its good to see the IPA attacking Abbott over his security speech 👿
Will the leakers ramp up their quest to oust Abbott, or will improvement in the polls give them pause
@AndrewLynchUNSW: Hartcher takes Abbott’s national security speech in good faith – and finds it wanting: fearful, angry and divisive. http://t.co/ApQJmGVMlP
vic:
Long may Abbott/Credlin rule the govt. And hope it continues until the next election!
Speaking of photos, why does the Pollbludger logo only have Hawke and Abbott visible, with all other PMs hidden behind the letters?
I want action.
Nicholas
Of course one needs to ensure that their resume has good skills and experience listed but the current job market for such candidates is generally far stronger than it is for the unskilled candidate using JSP, it is also pretty sticky for job seekers in manufacturing and mining but for most people the labour market is pretty competitive and isn’t that bad.
The current government has overseen falling business confidence which is making the labour market harder than it otherwise should be.
bemused
I am really torn.
I want Abbott to remain as PM until the next election which would likely be in the second half of 2016. Because I think that Labor can win after one term, not by the 98-47 seat margin according to the current Bludgertrack, but a solid outright majority, say 80-85 seats. No matter what the polls say now, to do so would be extraordinary – first one term federal government since 1929-31 Scullin (who was elected 5 days before the Wall Street Crash). And I fear that if Abbott goes, the chance of Labor winning diminishes significantly (which it wouldn’t if this were a 2 or 3 term govt).
On the other hand I have struggled to come up with a PM more deserving of being dumped while in office. Abbott has pursued such a toxic brand of politics since he was essentially “accidentally” elected as Liberal leader that his self-destruction would prove a salutary lesson for all who follow.
I am even warming to Billy Hughes after all these years!
And – I am certain that there are those in his own Party Room, indeed his own cabinet who share the sentiments of the second paragraph.
[Will the leakers ramp up their quest to oust Abbott, or will improvement in the polls give them pause]
Both. Any improvement will be essentially statistical noise, and temporary.
No one listens to this government anymore.
Steve
he wasn’t really wearing a foil hat
Good, Simkin must have got him to take it off before the cameras started rolling. Good job.
Given the netsat, perhaps there is a bounce back to the Govt as they realize Abbott is finished, it is only a matter of when.
[bemused
Posted Monday, February 23, 2015 at 10:46 pm | PERMALINK
Darn@2312
bemused
Posted Monday, February 23, 2015 at 10:39 pm | PERMALINK
Hmmmm getting onto men being the victims of domestic violence.
Is that a problem?
Not at all. But it is rarely mentioned and it should be.]
I agree. Domestic violence should be stamped out whatever form it takes and whatever the gender of the perpetrator.
zoomster@2325
Perhaps you would care to give us your explanation?
I hope Tony remains leader, watching him try and win a second term should be entertainment for us political watchers and watching him concede defeat will be more fun, wonder if he will finish off by saying that Australia is closed for business
JR
The Netsat with a 2PP means change leaders and 2PP should go up. in theory
Happiness 2332
Speaking of photos, why does the Pollbludger logo only have Hawke and Abbott visible, with all other PMs hidden behind the letters?
I have only recently taught myself to be able to name all 28 PMs. I used to always fail on the pre-Scullin era. But I still can’t get all the early order right (3 Deakins and 3 Fishers make it hard).
But I have a growing respect for all past PMs, even Billy Hughes, who was an MP from the start of Federal Parliament in 1901 until his death in 1952.
At the 50th jubilee dinner of the Commonwealth Parliament, a speaker paid tribute to him as a man “who sat in every Parliament since Federation – and every party too”. Arthur Fadden interjected: “Not the Country Party!” “No,” said Hughes, still able to hear when he wanted, “I had to draw the line somewhere.
More leaks!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/dramatic-split-in-pms-power-base-over-finances-and-credlin-leaked-emails-reveal-20150223-13mokb.html
lefty e
Yep this mob have burnt so much political capital
Night all
ABC News Local Radio leads with the Liberal Party Division revealed by leaked email
More leaks:
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/dramatic-split-in-pms-power-base-over-finances-and-credlin-leaked-emails-reveal-20150223-13mokb.html
The Shorton netsat figures give this a bit of an outlier feel to me. It is not as though anything has happened in the last two weeks that would send his personal approval so dramatically in a downward direction! These things happen with polls; I remember even in Labor’s darkest days in the previous term we would see bounces that were rather difficult to explain or understand, bounces usually very quickly erased by the next poll. I suspect things are more likely at 55-45 56-44. I would remind those suggesting that the 57-43 was an outlier that we had a Galaxy on the same weekend that was also at 57-43.
@MikeCarlton01: This talk of a Liberal Party crisis is clearly a left-wing plot to make us all live next door to a wind farm.http://t.co/3pU1u3Cb1x via @smh
Looking at the poll, it seems more inline with the past few months, Newspoll may have included a few more Liberal leaning areas but generally nothing as moved in the past week or so.
2334
I would not put it past Abbott, if he got sufficient warning of a definitely successful leadership challenge, to call a snap election. Probably a DD, if he can get one, to make his successor`s Senate harder than his because it would likely be under the current system. Remember that Abbott has said that he believes that the PM is hired by the people and should be fired by the people.
Of course there is no certainty Abbott would do this, but it is a real possibility.