BludgerTrack: 55.9-44.1 to Labor

The regular weekly reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate adds nothing of substance to last week’s result.

As is often the case in the week after a political upheaval, we’re starved for polling this week because everybody took to the field last week to get results out on the eve of the Liberal spill motion. That just leaves the regular weekly Essential Research result, which has made next to no difference to BludgerTrack. This week’s reading is the tiniest bit more favourable to the Coalition on two-party preferred than last week’s, but Labor makes a gain on the seat projection anyway, the vagaries of the state breakdowns having pushed it over the line for a ninth seat in Western Australia. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,364 comments on “BludgerTrack: 55.9-44.1 to Labor”

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  1. fess

    […public criticism and disputes between Democrat senators resulted in Stott Despoja’s resignation as leader on 21 August 2002, following presentation by four of her six colleagues (those who had earlier enabled the passage of the GST) with a ten-point ‘reform’ agenda proposed by John Cherry]

    [..She announced her resignation in a speech to the Senate, concluding with a “pledge to bring the party back home to the members again” and referring to her reluctance over colleagues’ attitude towards her.

    “One colleague, Senator Murray, has said that he does not believe in ultimatums, yet one of his earliest communiques to the public and to me was to `shape up or ship out’.]

  2. John Reidy@2292

    I agree, it may be a combination of a rogue and a swing back to the coalition after the spill, even though there was no change of leader.
    Well we know what the lead will be in the GG tomorrow.
    I wonder if the Age will leader with the flag show, or the leaked Lib email

    Wouldn’t both fall within the MOE?

    That’s the simple and most likely situation.

  3. zoom:

    Sounds like she was set upon by colleagues hell bent on holding onto their sacred cows.

    Guess they got what they wanted for their party, but eventually lost their jobs in the process.

  4. As Ive noted many times here, you only get a “security bounce” if you look competent.

    Abbott’s government are a bunch of bumbling boobies.

  5. lefty e@2300

    “@kevinbonham: #Newspoll Makes no sense for Shorten to poll his worst netsat ever – prob dud sample without which Abbott ratings wd be even worse #auspol”

    Yeah, I didnt buy the 57-43 from last time either.

    Id say split the diff, and the LNP is more like 45-55 down, broadly matching Bludgertrack all polls average.

    I thought it was an outlier too, but because it was so consistent with all the other pollsters, I didn’t know what to make of it..

    Maybe Newspoll tonight is an outlier being too low, so I’ll be interested to know what the other Pollsters will get.

    Perhaps Essential was right after all.

  6. A job seeker in the normal labour market can and should be in contract with two or three difference agencies and difference recruiters across those agencies and should work them like a marginal seat campaign.

    That will not solve the problem of seven jobseekers for every job. By mathematical identity six in seven “clients” of the unemployment industry will miss out. The current system is based on the employability model. The assumption is that the unemployed don’t have jobs because they are unemployable. Therefore the solution is to render them employable through training sessions about CVs, job interview skills, communication skills etc. It’s a fiction. The problem is lack of jobs. A good CV won’t get you a job that does not exist.

    The federal government should simply spend money directly on job creation. Hiring unemployed people is not inflationary because by all the government is buying is a resource (the labour of an unemployed person) which the private sector does not want. Therefore the spending is not competing with other demands for that resource. The government simply needs to create the money (through keystrokes on a computer at the Reserve Bank) so that the Treasury can spend it on hiring people. Bill Mitchell explains how to do it.

  7. [bemused
    Posted Monday, February 23, 2015 at 10:39 pm | PERMALINK
    Hmmmm getting onto men being the victims of domestic violence.

    Is that a problem?

  8. What the?

    How does this help my Malcolm?

    GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes · 28s 28 seconds ago
    #Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 47 (+4) ALP 53 (-4) #auspol

  9. In fact, its more than doubled:

    [The verdict: Data provided to the commission by the immigration department shows the number of children in detention for over three months more than doubled in the first months after the Coalition took office. In January 2014 it was the highest it had been in five years. Immigration department data shows that the overall number of people in long-term detention, which can be extrapolated to children, continued to increase during 2014, and only declined in late 2014. Professor Triggs is correct.]

  10. Awesome Qanda tonight. Explored the issues, had informed, intelligent discussion, and engaged audience members who brought their own experiences to the forum.

    Well done, and I’m glad I watched!

  11. So if the underlying 2PP is 55-45, the current Newspoll and the previous (assuming that it had also had a small sample of around 1,000 to 1,200) would be within the margin of error.

  12. [Tony’s netstat I suppose.

    Posted Monday, February 23, 2015 at 10:44 pm | PERMALINK

    Look at Abbott netsat]

    Yes, that is slightly more reassuring……

  13. Darn@2312

    Posted Monday, February 23, 2015 at 10:39 pm | PERMALINK
    Hmmmm getting onto men being the victims of domestic violence.

    Is that a problem?

    Not at all. But it is rarely mentioned and it should be.

    The other issue that was mentioned and should get more attention is the effect of privacy legislation in preventing sharing of information with those who need to know.

  14. Nicholas

    You seriously need to read up on what gives money worth. It doesn’t have it by itself.

    Printing more money does not create more wealth.

  15. MEH
    It seems the recent dip was due to leadercrap and the imminent prospect of your Malcolm becoming leader. Dip over once that was nipped in the bud.

  16. That photo posted upthread was doctored. Tony was surrounded by only six two metre tall flags and he wasn’t really wearing a foil hat.

  17. Speaking of photos, why does the Pollbludger logo only have Hawke and Abbott visible, with all other PMs hidden behind the letters?

    I want action.

  18. Nicholas

    Of course one needs to ensure that their resume has good skills and experience listed but the current job market for such candidates is generally far stronger than it is for the unskilled candidate using JSP, it is also pretty sticky for job seekers in manufacturing and mining but for most people the labour market is pretty competitive and isn’t that bad.

    The current government has overseen falling business confidence which is making the labour market harder than it otherwise should be.

  19. bemused

    I am really torn.

    I want Abbott to remain as PM until the next election which would likely be in the second half of 2016. Because I think that Labor can win after one term, not by the 98-47 seat margin according to the current Bludgertrack, but a solid outright majority, say 80-85 seats. No matter what the polls say now, to do so would be extraordinary – first one term federal government since 1929-31 Scullin (who was elected 5 days before the Wall Street Crash). And I fear that if Abbott goes, the chance of Labor winning diminishes significantly (which it wouldn’t if this were a 2 or 3 term govt).

    On the other hand I have struggled to come up with a PM more deserving of being dumped while in office. Abbott has pursued such a toxic brand of politics since he was essentially “accidentally” elected as Liberal leader that his self-destruction would prove a salutary lesson for all who follow.

    I am even warming to Billy Hughes after all these years!

    And – I am certain that there are those in his own Party Room, indeed his own cabinet who share the sentiments of the second paragraph.

  20. [Will the leakers ramp up their quest to oust Abbott, or will improvement in the polls give them pause]

    Both. Any improvement will be essentially statistical noise, and temporary.

    No one listens to this government anymore.

  21. [bemused
    Posted Monday, February 23, 2015 at 10:46 pm | PERMALINK

    Posted Monday, February 23, 2015 at 10:39 pm | PERMALINK
    Hmmmm getting onto men being the victims of domestic violence.

    Is that a problem?

    Not at all. But it is rarely mentioned and it should be.]

    I agree. Domestic violence should be stamped out whatever form it takes and whatever the gender of the perpetrator.

  22. zoomster@2325


    You seriously need to read up on what gives money worth. It doesn’t have it by itself.

    Printing more money does not create more wealth.

    Perhaps you would care to give us your explanation?

  23. I hope Tony remains leader, watching him try and win a second term should be entertainment for us political watchers and watching him concede defeat will be more fun, wonder if he will finish off by saying that Australia is closed for business

  24. Happiness 2332
    Speaking of photos, why does the Pollbludger logo only have Hawke and Abbott visible, with all other PMs hidden behind the letters?

    I have only recently taught myself to be able to name all 28 PMs. I used to always fail on the pre-Scullin era. But I still can’t get all the early order right (3 Deakins and 3 Fishers make it hard).

    But I have a growing respect for all past PMs, even Billy Hughes, who was an MP from the start of Federal Parliament in 1901 until his death in 1952.

    At the 50th jubilee dinner of the Commonwealth Parliament, a speaker paid tribute to him as a man “who sat in every Parliament since Federation – and every party too”. Arthur Fadden interjected: “Not the Country Party!” “No,” said Hughes, still able to hear when he wanted, “I had to draw the line somewhere.

  25. The Shorton netsat figures give this a bit of an outlier feel to me. It is not as though anything has happened in the last two weeks that would send his personal approval so dramatically in a downward direction! These things happen with polls; I remember even in Labor’s darkest days in the previous term we would see bounces that were rather difficult to explain or understand, bounces usually very quickly erased by the next poll. I suspect things are more likely at 55-45 56-44. I would remind those suggesting that the 57-43 was an outlier that we had a Galaxy on the same weekend that was also at 57-43.

  26. Looking at the poll, it seems more inline with the past few months, Newspoll may have included a few more Liberal leaning areas but generally nothing as moved in the past week or so.

  27. 2334

    I would not put it past Abbott, if he got sufficient warning of a definitely successful leadership challenge, to call a snap election. Probably a DD, if he can get one, to make his successor`s Senate harder than his because it would likely be under the current system. Remember that Abbott has said that he believes that the PM is hired by the people and should be fired by the people.

    Of course there is no certainty Abbott would do this, but it is a real possibility.

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