BludgerTrack: 55.9-44.1 to Labor

The regular weekly reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate adds nothing of substance to last week’s result.

As is often the case in the week after a political upheaval, we’re starved for polling this week because everybody took to the field last week to get results out on the eve of the Liberal spill motion. That just leaves the regular weekly Essential Research result, which has made next to no difference to BludgerTrack. This week’s reading is the tiniest bit more favourable to the Coalition on two-party preferred than last week’s, but Labor makes a gain on the seat projection anyway, the vagaries of the state breakdowns having pushed it over the line for a ninth seat in Western Australia. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,364 comments on “BludgerTrack: 55.9-44.1 to Labor”

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  1. Figured the effect of Essential would be more or less balanced by older polling that was more favourable to the Coalition coming out of the aggregate.

    Repeating my post from the last thread, since it was the last one:

    My local GP practice has informed me recently that, as of March 16th, they will no longer be bulk-billing, except for under-16s and aged pensioners.

    Because screw the unemployed and disabled. Thanks, Tony Abbott.

    Labor should commit to restoring Medicare and maxing out Bulk Billing. By all means, give doctors a raise and restore automatic indexation of the payments, but on the condition that they MUST bulk bill patients. After all, this is why we pay a Medicare levy.

  2. How does BludgerTrack work for seats that are three-cornered contests?

    For example, Durack in WA – at the last election, it was a contest between the Libs and the Nats, but I would expect the ALP to pass at least one of those with the kind of swing that there is in WA at the moment.

  3. A leadership change might also be the chance/cover for Labor to evacuate Bowen from Shadow treasurer. Doesn’t know a basic thing like a tax free threshold don’t you know ?

  4. @ Edwina StJohn, 4

    According to Bowen, they were talking about superannuation, not income taxation. I didn’t see the interview though, so I have no idea whether that could have actually been the case.

    In any case, I don’t think it’s such a serious problem. Facts can be looked up when required – it is more important that a politician is able to recall (on demand) the ideas behind a bit of policy than it is that they are able to recall the exact numbers behind it.

  5. The fact that Nationals and Liberals might be the last two candidates in an electorate doesn’t interest BludgerTrack. As well as the 53.98-46.02 result from Durack between Liberal and Nationals, we also know that the Liberal-versus-Labor result was 64.88-35.12, and that’s what it’s working off.

  6. When you have Bowen’s opposite number in Parliament either failing to understand or being deliberately misleading on the nature of progressive taxation (by conflating marginal rates with effective rates), forgetting a single number is hardly a sacking offense.

  7. I have lost confidence in the Essential polls, Don’t get me wrong I would welcome their opinion if they got the method of polling right.

    I have read posts that suggest that i just lags other polls, I disagree I think that most of the time it is just plain wrong.

    I would really like those conducting the poll to fine tune it so that it was more accurate.

    I predicted this weeks result and the next 2 weeks will probably be the same. At most plus or minus 1%.

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    The president of the AMA says that ideology and good health policy don’t mix.
    Peter Martin says this government is considering scrapping the national census to “save money”. There’s no doubt about this mob – they don’t like reliable factual data and analysis.
    Matt Wade chimes in with support for the census.
    Greyhound racing – the sport of grubs (and as I type I hear that the entire board of Greyhound NSW has stepped down).
    “View from the Street” wanders what today’s excuse for extended data retention laws will be.
    And we will pay for the government’s privilege of keeping all out private metadata.
    David Murray reckons it’s time to tackle the superannuation tax breaks for the quite rich.
    David Hicks wins his legal challenge in the US. I’m sure a number of Liberals and shock jocks will be ling up to comment.
    Have we reached the point where further reducing interest rates might actually make things worse in the long run?

  9. Section 2 . . .

    There is a need for greater clarity on food labelling but in the case of Hep A berries it would not have changed things.
    David Tribe writes properly about the Hep A berries. A good example of responsible journalism.
    It’s starting to get serious for HSBS over its rampant tax avoidance practices.
    How the Department of Immigration rips families apart.
    Alan Austin follows through with Hockey’s budget megafail II. Last time it was expense and this time it is revenue that he examines.,7384
    Stephen Koukoulas exposes Alan Jones’ own goals on Q and A.
    The 24 worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    The Department of Human Services is heading for a huge stoush with its employees.
    It’s clear that Shane Watson has to go!
    The ACCC wants tougher penalties for exploitative companies.

  10. Section 3 . . .

    Why there is no room for Hockey’s hedonism.
    Is Josh Faulks George Brandis’s Peta Credlin?
    Alan Moir has Turnbull making preparations.

    There is an elephant in the budget room says Andrew Dyson.

    Ron Tandberg loves to nail hypocrisy.

    Mark Knight goes shopping for frozen berries.

    David Pope rightfully ridicules Abbott’s comments linking death penalty clemency and tsunami aid.

    A sombre look at the Indonesian firing squad by David Rowe.

  11. @ Rocket Rocket, 14

    I’m pretty sure that’s wrong, because it would have required Australia to officially recognise the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (the Taliban) as the legitimate government. To my knowledge, only Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates did so.

  12. BK, I’m having trouble with the smh cartoons. Nothing shows, and I get an error message for the afr.

    Is any one else having the same problem?

    The frozen berries cartoon came through ok.

  13. Did you know there was such a thing as a “bra holster”?

    [A minor official in the Michigan Republican Party who was found dead on New Year’s Day apparently did not take her own life. Instead, new information released Wednesday indicates that Christina Bond died while adjusting a gun in a bra holster. At least no toddlers were involved in this shooting.

    “She was having trouble adjusting her bra holster, couldn’t get it to fit the way she wanted it to. She was looking down at it and accidentally discharged the weapon,” St. Joseph Public Safety Director Mark Clapp said.]


  14. to the Liberal National Party (LNP) won a multi-million-dollar medical contract last year without a tender, amid serious concerns about the integrity of the process and poor value for taxpayers.

    The ABC can reveal Vanguard Health, which is also registered as a lobbying firm federally and in every state and the ACT, was the sole contender when it won a $13 million, three-year contract to provide doctors to Yeppoon Hospital in what hospital administrators called a “quick fix”.

    Vanguard has donated $21,000 to the Queensland LNP since 2009. The company’s general manager, David M Russell, was until 2013 a member of the LNP’s State Council and on the editorial team of the party’s in-house magazine.

  15. I haven’t read the article about ideology clashing with good outcomes when it comes to medicine, but it gets me musing about the demand for a ‘narrative’ in politics.

    Now, obviously each party has a set of guiding principles – people know why they joined and will leave if their expectations aren’t met – but these are usually fairly broad brush – “Labor is the workers’ party” “Liberals look after the needs of business”, but a ‘narrative’ is more than “We want Australia to be a great place to live”.

    I’m actually struggling to think of any government ever who had more of a narrative than something along those lines, but the media are constantly demanding a narrative, so one has to assumes that there was a Golden Age where all governments had one (presumably set out in nice picture books with large writing).

    The problem with a ‘narrative’ is that, instead of being driven by evidence when it comes to good policy, the policies are written to fit the narrative.

    This approach assumes that there is a set of rules which can be applied to every situation and that, so applied, will always yield optimum results.

    That doesn’t work in real life. In real life, things are messy. What works well in one situation doesn’t work at all in another. Something which looks great on paper fails in the face of human vagaries.

    Of course, not having a narrative means that each policy approach needs to be examined and explained on its merits, which means that the background must be understood, the views of stakeholders taken into account, the complexities fo the situation understood, and possible reactions taken into account. That’s a lot of work.

    Demanding a narrative avoids all that, because narratives can conveniently be covered by three word slogans. Life is more complex than that.

  16. Sprocket-

    “She was having trouble adjusting her bra holster, couldn’t get it to fit the way she wanted it to. She was looking down at it and accidentally discharged the weapon,” St. Joseph Public Safety Director Mark Clapp said.

    That would be enough to give me the tits.

    I couldn’t resist that one. Haven’t heard it in 40 years.

  17. This is what I was saying yesterday –

    [ Bali nine executions: Indonesia’s president did not have all the documents when he refused clemency

    Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo refused clemency for the Bali nine duo facing execution without all the documentation of their cases due to the chaotic handover to his office from his predecessor.

    A source familiar with the events, who asked not to be named because of the extreme sensitivity of the case, told Fairfax Media Mr Joko had little more than a list of drug offenders on death row when he made the decisions.

    “Look, the current president simply takes over all pending applications of the death felons from the previous government which the latter did not touch at all,” said the source.

    “And there was just a few pieces of papers listing names of people on death row. No documents attached to the lists.”

    The source said that the President did not have a complete understanding of the rehabilitation of Myuran Sukumaran and Andrew Chan, or documentation outlining the testimony from a former governor of Kerobokan prison.

    The governor, Siswanto, testified that their transformation was genuine and had profoundly affected the penitentiary.

    …Fairfax Media understands the main list of 64 convicts on death row used by Mr Joko contained only the most scant information – names, nationality, ages when they were arrested and sentenced, the status of their legal appeals, and the province in which they are incarcerated.

    The revelations that Mr Joko had been making his clemency decisions without full information comes as lawyers for the pair prepare an appeal to Jakarta’s administrative court arguing the process around the clemency rejection was flawed.]

  18. Good Morning

    In the UK David Cameron tried the axe the census trick. He eventually had to back down. Hopefully the same will happen here.

    To state the obvious it is proof that there is not forward thinking by the Abbott government its all the now and stuff any future the country may have

  19. sprocket_ and Boerwar
    So she went tits up then?

    The links for the SMH cartoons work OK over the road at the PUB and if you copy the link from the Dawn Patrol and paste it as a URL in a new tab. It must be a WordPress problem here.

  20. Wow I wonder what the coalition would look like if reduced to 47 seats.
    We can only dream.
    Of course even if a election result was 52-48 2pp, how many moderates would be left in the Federal party?
    Also add in retiring members (say MT) who might would then be replaced.

  21. BK’s cartoon links are duplicated at the end of the previous thread (Essential 54-46) and work fine there, but not in this thread. Strange.

  22. guytaur @26
    s51 gives the power to conduct a census, not an imperative to do so (which is a bit different to the US constitutional wording)

    Indicative of a non-fact based government with which we are sadly lumbered

    Love this line from BK’s link; one can just imagine the public servant getting a bollocking from his political masters:
    [A spokesman for the ABS said planning for the 2016 census was on schedule. He later phoned back and said all inquires should instead be directed to the parliamentary secretary’s office.]

  23. Brandis imposed his staffer at a meeting between Dreyfus and Triggs. Pretty draconian stuff. When I think about Brandis trying to force Triggs out, the 18c stuff, raiding the offices of the barrister who ran the Timor spying case, etc, I just find it very difficult to accept the “moderate” tag that some still apply to him. His only redemption might be that ‘Tony made me do it’, but, geez, it’s a bad look.

  24. Josh Frydeberg who seems to be everywhere these days, was just interviewed on ABC radio re cutting red tape. Jon Faine the host was a little grumpy with Frydenberg’s usual rhetoric

  25. I would also say that governments wanting people to conduct meetings in the presence of an uninvited and unwelcome government delegate are not worthy of the trust necessary in relation to metadata retention.

  26. I think moderate in the LNP would be a more helpful description, if it meant ‘economically sane’.
    That is non tea party economics.
    So Morrison might be a moderate, not sure where that would leave Hockey .

  27. BK@25

    sprocket_ and Boerwar
    So she went tits up then?

    The links for the SMH cartoons work OK over the road at the PUB and if you copy the link from the Dawn Patrol and paste it as a URL in a new tab. It must be a WordPress problem here.

    Still can’t get it to work, even if I paste into firefox instead of chrome.

    Not a problem, I can get them directly from the home pages.

  28. Finally some polling to talk about. Sydney Western Suburbs swing voters focus groups are very interesting …

    [Focus group research conducted by seasoned pollster Tony Mitchelmore, a veteran of nine state and federal election campaigns, finds swing voters now have a low regard for both major parties and are overwhelmingly disillusioned with the state of politics.

    The polling also found Mr Abbott remains deeply unpopular, Julie Bishop is held in high regard, Malcolm Turnbull is seen as a strong leader of the future while Labor leader Bill Shorten remains largely unknown and “has yet to prove himself with swinging voters”.

    Mr Mitchelmore and his company Visibility conducted the research during the tumultuous days just before the spill motion which Mr Abbott survived by 61 votes to 39. The research canvassed the views of voters in western Sydney marginal seats, all of whom had voted for Labor in the 2010 election but switched to the Coalition in 2013.

    “These are the critical voters both sides of politics will be focusing on,” Mr Mitchelmore said.]

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