Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Spill motion or no spill motion, Essential Research remains stuck where it’s been for three weeks. But it also finds little unconditional support Tony Abbott remaining as prime minister, and few expecting him to do so.

Essential Research once again fails to show much sign of the post-Australia Day collapse in Coalition support evident from other pollsters, with two-party preferred still at 54-46 (only one point weaker for the Coalition than before Australia Day) and primary votes unchanged on last week at 39% for the Coalition, 41% for Labor and 10% for the Greens, excepting a one point drop for Palmer United to 2%. But once again, there is still plenty of bad news for Tony Abbott in the subsequent attitudinal questions, with only 28% saying Tony Abbott should be kept as Liberal leader until the election under all circumstances versus 22% who went for an option allowing him six months to improve, and 39% believing he should go right now. Among Coalition voters, the results are 48%, 34% and 14%. Support for the party room’s decision to reject the spill motion is evenly divided at 40-40, becoming 71-18 among Coalition supporters. The poll reports 49% of respondents expecting Labor to win the next election versus just 23% for the Coalition, and 61% considering it unlikely Tony Abbott will still be leader at the time versus on 20% for likely.

On top of that, a semi-regular suite of questions on which party is most trusted to handle various issues actually finds movement in the Coalition’s favour on economic management, education, climate change and treatment of asylum seekers since the question was last asked at June, albeit that the poll was conducted at the lowest ebb of post-budget backlash. Other results are effectively unchanged, the Coalition retaining strong leads on security and the war on terrorism (up three to 19%), economic management, controlling interest rates and treatment of asylum seekers, but marked down heavily on protection of the environment, and Labor strongly favoured on health, education and industrial relations (UPDATE: I should observe that a flaw in Essential Research’s “difference” column is that it shows Liberal minus Labor, when respondents are in fact given a third choice for the Greens. Presumably Labor would have generally better “difference” ratings otherwise). The poll also finds 44% opposed to the government’s data retention policy with 40% in support, and 37% holding a strong view that submarines should be built in Australia, 34% believing it should only be so if the cost is similar to alternative options, and 12% requiring that the cost be lower.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

714 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 14 of 15
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  1. Puff – just back, and now you’ve got me thinking. I read some research in evolutionatry sociology which came to the conclusion that early groups of hominids/humans killed off tye A males for the same reason. Will try and find it.

  4. 650

    Indonesia is certainly in a better position to sanction us than we are to sanction them.

    Taking flights as an example. A very significant proportion of our international flights go through Indonesian airspace. I would estimate than a very insignificant proportion of Indonesia`s international flights go through our airspace. Same with shipping and Indonesian waters, although some of those are international shipping lanes.

  6. Just re-read the last sentence of the italicised intro –

    Because early humans lived in egalitarian bands, a likely candidate for the first behaviour to be labelled as morally deviant is not the incest taboo but bullying behaviour, of the type that egalitarian humans today universally proscribe and suppress.

    Liberal Party MPs – take note!

  7. ESJ 647

    Now you are onto something. Down there for dancin’!

    How about we threaten to cease all trade? Or better still, sporting sanctions!

  9. Lizie

    “Abbott now in trouble with Indonesia over non diplomatic language. He has gone too far. ”
    I guess Tony didn’t watch 7.30 last night .. The very thing Bob Carr said we shouldn’t do.

    Let’s see how the ABC treat Tony tomorrow or will they still be after any little mistake from Labor?

  11. If you are looking for some light relief from the sad topic of the two men on death row….
    David Thorne shared a little of his relationship in his blog ’27b6′ that still has me giggle tickled.

    [Last Friday, while Holly and I were having drinks with another couple, Holly stated that she and I never argue. “That’s not true,” I said, “We argue every day.” “Don’t lie,” Holly responded, “that’s not arguing, that’s just you being a d***head.”]

    Their Nachos Soup story worth the read…
    [Holly cannot cook. She is capable of the process of cooking, but Holly cannot cook in the same way that an octopus cannot ride a bike….]
    http://www.27bslash6.com/arguments.html

  12. And on a parting note – a Kinky Friedman quote that I am sure was written about our PM…
    “Politics is the only field of human endeavour where the more experience you have, the worse you get.”

  17. NSW gov sacks the greyhound mob in NSW and Victoria gives its greyhound mob $3m for using live bait. Is that right? Maybe Andrews isn’t that smart.

  18. Tomorrow’s Commemmoration of the 73rd Anniversary of the first bombing raid on Darwin in 1942 will be against a backdrop of Cyclone Lam approaching the coast of Arnhem Land (and Cyclone Marcia approaching Yeppoon).

    Best wishes to anyone in the path of these cyclones. Always scary. Hopefully no fatalities.

  19. In the folly of youth, I chose Modern History as an elective subject at UNSW.

    Was told that when the Dutch were booted out, they left Indonesia with five Indonesian doctors and three Indonesian engineers.

    The Indonesian nation of 250 million, mostly followers of Islam, is Australia’s nearest neighbour of international significance.

    Now we have our esteemed PM threatening them with reprisals if the execution of two heroin smugglers (agreed reformed) goes ahead.

    Why not just send a gunboat and put a few shells into the Presidential Palace, just like in the good old days of colonial rule.

    Disclosure of interest – lost a couple of friends to “horse” a few years back.

    I hate those involved in the drug trade with a passion.

  20. Dio
    It seems they used to have some good times – Kinky and Piers. I cant recal the exact words but I am sure Kinky referred to him as ‘that great Australian Journalist’ – or maybe ‘a drunkard that when monstered could take on the entire Polish army’.

  21. SK – your “revelation” of the Akerman link has a significant “number”!

    And yes, too many m’s in commemoration.

    I saw Prince Philip at the 55th Commemoration in 1997.
    That is, before he was famous!

  23. RR

    You “beast”, you had me completely stumped, as currently using the mobile version of pollbludger – no post “numbers”. But had an inkling and ” fired” up the standard site and figured it out. Wicked!

  24. Boerwar @650:

    Edwina is a Liberal – which is to say, she considers herself a hammer and everything objectionable to be nails.

    The idea that these…these third-worlders might retaliate in kind to any sanctions we impose simply escapes her. As does the possibility that we need Indonesian goodwill as much as, or more than, they need ours.

  27. It really is hard to grasp the extent of Abbott’s idiocy earlier today.

    If I was Chan / Sukumaran’s lawyer, Id release a statement rejecting the comments of our embarrassing, inept PM, saying any connection with the Tsunami generosity is totally inappropriate, he does not speak for us, nor most Australians.

    Then Indonesia can offer clemency without losing face. In fact, it might even make it easier.

    As it is, Abbott has made it harder.

    Abbott is a disgrace: this was either another demented brainfart, or worse, it was intended as a pitch at the One Nation vote. His mother should slap him.

  29. deewhytony

    [In the folly of youth, I chose Modern History as an elective subject at UNSW.]

    Don’t feel too bad. I did European Commercial Law as a second degree at KCL. Maddness as I was a grown up at the time.

  30. BW @ 648
    [
    Would Mr Abbott (and his Australian supporters) be saying exactly the same things about how terrible capital punishment was…
    … if the Bali Two were being executed for murdering children following a pedophiliac rape session?]

    Sounds like under Indonesian law they would have more chance of getting off. But this is not just about the death penalty. For a whole range of reasons (genuine rehabilitation, demonstrable ongoing value to the rehabilitation of other prisoners, the fact that the drugs were not being imported into Indonesia, the fact that the Indonesians became aware of them only when tipped off by Australian police, their relative youth when the crimes were committed – they seem to be younger than anyone else facing execution even now – they are deserving of clemency.

    Leave out the fact they are Australians. While it is Indonesian law, it seems that they are being executed not so much for the crime they committed but as a political measure that will get the President ongoing popular support. Further, there are a number of cases (Tommy Suharto’s murder of a judge and the ice manufacturer who got his sentence reduced to 15 years immediately after Chan and Sukumaran were denied a reduction by the court) where the payment of bribes was the only rational explanation for a differentiation in justice.

    So yes, it is better not to have a death penalty than to have so much variation in deciding whether the penalty should be imposed. And further, even in extreme examples, such as the Bali bombers, there is a problem where their execution can be used to justify the execution of anyone else who is expendable to the State (or who has not paid the right bribes to the right people).

  31. [Then Indonesia can offer clemency without losing face. In fact, it might even make it easier.]

    They are showing no interest, publicly and most likely privately, in doing so. It’s difficult to see them doing it whatever is said.

  32. [A Greek or a Portuguese or an Italian exit from the eurozone would soon lead to a fragmentation of European capitalism, yielding a seriously recessionary surplus region east of the Rhine and north of the Alps, while the rest of Europe is would be in the grip of vicious stagflation. Who do you think would benefit from this development? A progressive left, that will rise Phoenix-like from the ashes of Europe’s public institutions? Or the Golden Dawn Nazis, the assorted neofascists, the xenophobes and the spivs? I have absolutely no doubt as to which of the two will do best from a disintegration of the eurozone.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/feb/18/yanis-varoufakis-how-i-became-an-erratic-marxist

  33. had a look at the infamous qanda episode this week on repeat today. not sure what all fuss was about – it seemed fairly lacklustre actually. as for MT – if he is the hope for the LP or this country i weep. not that i particularly care what happens to the LP – but something has to move on from TA. MA is just a poster boy sorry. and he will be indebted to right wing of party if he ever leads it – witness his answers on the show, slickly justifying border protection, budget … for heavens sake. TA has a lot to answer for and the trail of damage he will leave will be long. I am not sure shorten cuts the cloth – in the wake of unnecessary immolation of two leaders before him. we are all fed up with slogans but really what does shorten use? I begin to worry for oz politics actually

  34. lefty e
    Posted Wednesday, February 18, 2015 at 11:27 pm | PERMALINK
    It really is hard to grasp the extent of Abbott’s idiocy earlier today.

    If I was Chan / Sukumaran’s lawyer, Id release a statement rejecting the comments of our embarrassing, inept PM, saying any connection with the Tsunami generosity is totally inappropriate, he does not speak for us, nor most Australians.

    Then Indonesia can offer clemency without losing face. In fact, it might even make it easier.

    As it is, Abbott has made it harder.

    Abbott is a disgrace: this was either another demented brainfart, or worse, it was intended as a pitch at the One Nation vote. His mother should slap him.

    —————yes it’s kinda scarey having abbott on deck as captain when a true captain is needed … i wont go on with metaphor it is too scarey

  35. So yes, it is better not to have a death penalty than to have so much variation in deciding whether the penalty should be imposed. And further, even in extreme examples, such as the Bali bombers, there is a problem where their execution can be used to justify the execution of anyone else who is expendable to the State (or who has not paid the right bribes to the right people).

    ——yes tpof current situation is textbook example of what is wrong with capital punishment…. if i was one of the two subjects i would be beside myself with anger for at least four moments of miscarriage … ironic that trade in persons by AFP to curry favour with Indo has ten years down track produced opposite effect …

  36. [633
    Edwina StJohn

    Good on Tony Abbott for stating the bleeding obvious. The softly softly nicey nicey DFAT approach clearly hasnt worked. Making it explicitly clear that we as a country will be pissed if they are executed is language the Indonesians will respond to. Just like stopping the boats – if Australia is firm and direct Indo will respond.]

    Just think about this for a second or two. We have appealed to the President of Indonesia, by the exercise of his legal discretion, to show clemency to the two; to act from compassion and uphold the dignity of life.

    We seek mercy for the powerless. Then on the other hand Abbott hints of payback.

    The use of the death penalty is if nothing else about payback, about the settling of scores. How can we both appeal for relief from such a settling on our own citizens and at the same time threaten to invent some new penalties to visit on Indonesia?

    Abbott clearly was not talking to Indonesia today but using grief and fear to rouse anger here. He is a complete disgrace.

  37. i am surprised the indo govt is not finding some excuse to back off – they have an easy one, corruption at judgment. i am very surprised that think it worth running in face of huge outcry here which anyone on ground or on media can see. it is tacky as to play politics with capital punishment – even if chinese etc etc and americans do it all the time.

  39. Yes
    Abbott could have said exactly the same thing but in diplomatic language if he had half a brain.

    He could for example have said
    “disappointed that Indonesia is not willing to oblige Australia on this, particularly because of generosity of average Australians and the government in 2004″

    ” concerned that execution may spark backlash in Australia with many choosing to change plans to holiday in Bali”

    “Australia is facing some budgetary constraints and in these times there is always pressure on the foreign aid budget. When the public is disturbed by events in other countries governments have much more difficulty being generous.” (which is pretty close to what Julie Bishop said today)

  41. [682
    caf

    A Greek or a Portuguese or an Italian exit from the eurozone would soon lead to a fragmentation of European capitalism, yielding a seriously recessionary surplus region east of the Rhine and north of the Alps, while the rest of Europe is would be in the grip of vicious stagflation.]

    Varoufakis characterises himself as the reluctant saviour of European capitalism – the some-time Marxist turned, by pessimism, if not to oppose revolution then at least to postpone it.

    He’s wrong about the Euro economies. They are in trouble precisely because of the design of their monetary system. Once this is reformed, the economies will be able to re-align and regain their vitality. The sooner they do this, the better.

  42. I agree with most of the posts here, Abbott couldn’t give a stuff about the two that are about to be executed.

    It’s all about him acting tough and improving his polling, which it may, temporarily.

    What is needed is someone the Indonesians respect to plea quietly and calmly for clemency.

    In general I’m an easy going person who tries to get along with people, one of my friends once said that the thing that shits him is that I try to see both sides.

    The thing that gets my gander up is bullying and threats especially.

    I once got the sack for standing up for an Apprentice recently out of his time, after being given 4 days notice, asked for a couple of hours off to go to an interview, was refused.

    I told the apprentice, Peter to go to his innterview and if they did anything to him we would go on strike.

    My immediate boss then said well your’e sacked too, I said fine and walked out.

    The nex day at work a boss higher up talked me out of leaving,
    I stayed but left soon after.

  44. [Steve777

    Posted Wednesday, February 18, 2015 at 8:34 pm | Permalink

    Re Tricot @608: Pardon my asking, but where was all the moral outrage when the Indonesians caught up with those who were part of the Bali bombing and put them before a fIring squad?

    We choose our battles.
    ]

    And there lays the hypocrisy.

  45. Hi All, enjoying the comments mightily, but I have a question. I’ve been out of Australia for 20 years, home again now (and back in Qld just in time to vote). I get most of the acronyms, but IPA? Can someone explain (and it seems like there might be two different uses). Thanks

  46. [ Edwina is a Liberal – which is to say, she considers herself a hammer and everything objectionable to be nails. ]

    Does that mean it will do a Hockey and impale itself on them??

    I’d like to see that. 🙂

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