Morgan: 57.5-42.5 to Labor

Polling conducted over the past two weekends finds the Abbott government not unexpectedly going from very bad to worse.

I wouldn’t normally lead with a Morgan poll so soon after a Newspoll result, but today of course is a special occasion (for future generations who might happen to be reading this, Tony Abbott today beat off a spill motion by the unconvincing margin of 61 to 39). After conducting an unusual poll last time in which the field work period was extended and the surveying limited to a single weekend, this is back to the usual Roy Morgan practice of combining face-to-face and SMS polling from two weeks, with field work conducted only on Saturdays and Sundays, with a sample of around 3000 (2939 to be precise about it). So the poll was half conducted in the knowledge that a spill was imminent, and half not.

On the primary vote, there has been a straight two-point shift from the Coalition to Labor since the previous poll, which was conducted from January 23-27, with Australia Day and the Prince Philip knighthood having landed on January 26. This puts Labor on 41.5% and the Coalition on 35.5%, with the Greens steady on 12% and Palmer United down one to 2%. A slightly better flow of preferences for the Coalition blunts the impact a little on the headline respondent-allocated two-party figure, on which Labor’s lead is up from 56.5-43.5 to 57.5 to 42.5. The move is a little bigger on previous election preferences, from 55.5-44.5 to 57-43. Tomorrow’s Essential Research should complete the cycle of pre-spill opinion polling, and I’m well and truly back in my old routine of updating BludgerTrack overnight on Wednesday/Thursday.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research’s reputation for stability emerges unharmed with another 54-46 reading this week, with the Coalition up a point to 39%, Labor steady on 41%, the Greens up one to 10% and Palmer United steady on 3%. It’s a different story on the monthly reading of Tony Abbott’s leadership ratings, with approval down eight to 27% and disapproval up nine to 62%. However, Bill Shorten’s position has also sharply worsened, with approval down six to 33% and disapproval up five to 38%. Given this is nowhere reflected in other polling, one might surmise that Essential has hit bad samples for Labor over consecutive weeks. Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister is nonetheless out from 37-35 to 39-31.

Other questions find 59% approval for the government dropping its paid parental leave scheme versus 25% for disapprove; 59% support for same-sex marriage, up four since December, with 28% opposed, down four; 26% saying support for same-sex marriage might favourably influence vote choice, 19% saying it would do so unfavourably, and 48% saying it would make no difference; 44% favouring a negative response to government retention of personal data and information against 38% for a positive one; and a suite of questions on privatisation that do a fair bit to explain what happened to Campbell Newman.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,707 comments on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5 to Labor”

  1. What can one say?

    [2:31pm: Labor frontbencher Anthony Albanese is sent out of Question Time by Speaker Bronwyn Bishop.

    He is the 300th Labor MP to be removed from Question Time by Mrs Bishop. She has also sent out five Coalition MPs.]

    (Fairfax live update)

  2. [ Boerwar

    Posted Wednesday, February 11, 2015 at 1:59 pm | Permalink

    Some people say that execution by shooting squad is barbaric.


    How many women and children have Australian military personnel despatched barbarically since, say, the commencement of Australia’s involvement in the Vietnam War.

    Hundreds? Thousands? Tens of thousands?

    Who knows? We don’t even count them.

    More related to Indonesia – there was also this :

    Report claims Australian-supplied helicopters used by Indonesia in West Papua ‘genocide’

    By Cathy Harper

    A new report claims Australian-supplied helicopters were used by Indonesia’s military to kill civilians in West Papua in the 1970s.

    The allegations are among other abuses detailed in the report, by the Hong Kong-based Asian Human Rights Commission (AHCR), which contains graphic detail of the alleged murder, rape and torture of more than 4,000 Papuans by Indonesian military in the late 1970s.

  3. …and then Bishop ended up mocking Plibersek for her Africa is a country gaffe, brandishing a poster to cap it all off.
    She refused to stop even while Burke was standing to make a POO.
    Bronnie said sit down and Bishop thought she was referring to her to which Bronnie replied “not you”.

  4. I make no allowances nor credit for race when it comes to nations implementing the death penalty. Be it Asian, African, South American or white USA Americans, having the death penalty as part of the judicial process and a punishment meted out by the state is barbaric and backward. It is having one foot in the modern age and the other in an ignorant past.

    It took us to 1984 to outlaw it altogether after it was used for the judicial murder of Ronald Ryan in the 1960’s. So we were barbaric and backward until 1984, when we asserted our progressive and modern approach to criminal justice.

    Just because other countries suffered under a colonial brutal past doesn’t give them a free pass from criticism. The fact that they do not like the skin colour nor nationality of the critics, is neither here nor there, in my opinion.

    Just as when we are judged by other nations to be backward and barbaric in our neglect of aboriginal peoples, (and they are right), we do not get to cry in our beer because of our past and say we should be given a free pass.

    Any nation, and I mean any, who has judicial murder as part of their judicial system, is backward, barbaric and not a modern nation. It needs to be said, written and acknowledged. Everytime a country kills a criminal, they are harking back to a time when sophisticated, evidence-based, non-politically-motivated criminal justice was unknown, and an alien concept.

    Choose your cloak, then wear it.

  5. [so I am to pay a rates bill of 1200 bucks pa, plus a new land tax bill of 1200 bucks pa, on my residential property that i will never sell, to subsidise people who buy and sell properties? Fork that for a joke.]

    So I am to pay $15k upfront for services and improvements that you’ll continue using for free? Hmmm.

    FWIW, the transitional arrangements in ACT go something like: If you cannot reasonably pay the land tax burden, then the outstanding bill will accumulate and be deducted from the price of the property when it is eventually sold.

  6. [Australians shouldn’t be surprised to find that the average Indonesian finds our complaints to be way out of proportion, if not patronising and offensive.]
    Tough, I find tying people to a post and getting other people to shoot the bounhd persons’ hearts apart particularly bloody offensive. And getting miffed about me saying it, I find pretty damned patronising.

    If foreigners tell me the way we treat Aboriginals is shyte, I listen.

    They take in billions of dollars off foreign tourists, yet get all up-the-nose when citizens of those foreign countries question their death penalty. I have short shift for that attitude.

  7. MeherBababin relation to the proposed Indonesian executions.

    1. I agree that we should be careful in our language to avoid fuelling objections of ethnic superiority. Words like ‘barbarian’ have an ethnically loaded origin and have repeatedly been used by those asserting superiority over colonised peoples.

    2. The deliberate murder of people is about as gross an ethical wrong as it is to imagine, though I might put torture in front of it, depending on the circumstances. That a homicide is the result of a judicial process does not make it, in my view, defensible. My view on these matters would be the same regardless of which jurisdiction the execution was taking place in or the ostensible ’cause’ of the acts. There is in my view only one adequate warrant for coercion — service to a legitimate public interest — and killing someone demands the sternest of tests. Sometimes, a killing may be necessary because there is no feasible alternative but this isn’t such a case. It’s clearly a programmed killing.

    3. We are entitled here in Australia to oppose other states murdering people and to impose such diplomatic and other costs as are proportionate to the gravity of those other state’s bad behaviour. If some of their citizens damn us as ‘colonialist’ we should point out to them that actual colonisers arrogated to themselves just the right that the Indonesians propose to exercise here.

    4. It is clear that the hands of the AFP are dirty here, as they provided the grist to the Indonesian death mill. Once again, a reactionary public policy, the so-called ‘war on drugs’ is exacting a lethal toll. We ought to abandon it without delay and focus instead on non-coercive means to staunch reckless resort to self-medication for mood control.

    5. I doubt there are sanctions we could adopt against Indonesia that would be effective, and if we did adopt sanctions we’d have to adopt them against all other states implementing death penalties, in order to be consistent.

    I’d favour non-cooperation with the Indonesian police (or any other police force) on all matters in which capital punishment might be imposed.

    They might respond by withdrawing cooperation on ‘boats’ but I’d be OK with that of course. Win-win.

  8. [What they lack is not control, but the political ability to persuade the Senate to pass the needed laws. That is because most of the Senate now regard them as liars and fools,…]

    …and thugs.

    Not a good triptych to be saddled with, especially when true.

  9. Turnbull asks the speaker that Plibersek refer to members by their correct titles. Plibersek – “The future PM his majesty of Wentworth”. 😆

  10. [Jacqui Lambie will introduce a private senator’s bill to force halal certifiers to disclose how their fees are spent, suggesting “halal money” funds the Islamic State.]

    Gonna go after the ‘kosher money’ as well, Jacqui?

  11. In my case the house will be left to my children, unless a government finds a way to asset-strip me of my family home, and leaving nothing for my disabled kid to inherit, to live in. Accumulated land tax should do that nicely, eh? Very progressive, I don’t think.

  12. MATT – Labor could basically dust off its platform at the last election (stopping car leasing rorts; stopping super being used as an on-shore tax haven, bringing in an ETS, etc etc). It really won’t be all that hard.

  13. [1173

    Most Labor policies are known and already out there as continuation of the last government policies with some changes to come.]


    Labor have a huge advantage in that their policy platform is more or less the same as it has been for at least 3 elections now. Voters will already know the basic package from Labor, before Labor even say anything.

  14. Accumulated tax taken out of the family home is a good way of making sure each generation of working class people start with nothing, and keep them within their class strata. The family home is the big asset they all want to get their hands on. Land tax, nursing home fees, reverse pensions, redraw accounts. I would rather starve in the kitchen or slit my wrists then allow that to happen to my family. I am the first in my direct line to own a house. No bastard’s going to get it.

  15. I still have not found the Labor campaign advert in NSW

    It shows LNP local state member. Has him saying Abbott gets it.

    Then shows how Abbott gets it with GP Tax education fees etc

    Remember at the ballot box loclal member thinks that Abbott gets it.

    Something to that effect. I thought was one of the best from Labor in some time.

  16. If the ALP has only 25 senate seats to the Coalitions 33, how the hell can the ALP control the senate, as the Coalition, through Hokey, Abbott et al claim ?

    Are the Coalition really that stupid that they think the people will fall for such a moronic claim ?

  17. Fran.
    Agree with all but 1.

    Barbaric describes how white Europeans/British treated colonised peoples, and their own. The Death Penalty is barbaric, it harks backwards to a pre-modern justice-system past, and is, imo, an accurate description of nations which have the death penalty. How they react to that description is not my concern.

  18. kakuru@1376


    Gonna go after the ‘kosher money’ as well, Jacqui?

    What about Mormon tithes?

    Obviously an amendment should be moved to cut out all forms of religious funding by any means.

    Can’t be too careful. 😐

  19. Hey Puff, I didn’t know about your situation, or was too unobservant to take it on board if you’ve mentioned it before, so sorry if I was insensitive.

    Obviously there will be cases where application of a broad-based land tax causes an inequitable outcome. I hope that there is a policy solution to most of them included in any transitional arrangements.

    However, I’m still of the firm opinion that land taxes are systematically better. They are: more efficient and less distorting than stamp duties; likely to deter speculation in housing, and thereby less likely to leave people with large debts (to banks) just to provide themselves with shelter; and really difficult to avoid paying (cf income tax minimisation schemes, cash-in-hand GST avoidance).

    Of course, the last point is no good to you if you don’t pay much income tax or spend much now, and that’s the crux of the distributional equity argument that needs to to be had.

  20. re YB @1373: they think the people will fall for such a moronic claim ?

    I think that the lies are aimed at the politically disengaged, not morons but people who get all their info from commercial radio/TV and the Daily Rupert. As a poster noted up-thread, the intention is to fit Labor up for the deterioration of the budget while continuing to press the other lie that that budget measures proposed are the only way to fix the budget.

  21. [ratsak

    Abbott will of course try and use {a carbon price from Labor} as his salvation, but his reputation is so shot that I reckon he’ll be told to ‘shut up about the bloody Carbon Tax you idiot’ after a short while because it’s just making Shorten look strong.]

    Once in office the Coalition only had two policy areas where they could have scored any cheap political points, boats and carbon tax. (Labor leadershit is now well and truly out of the picture. Especially after the Lib’s own internal problems arced up and went public.)

    For various reasons the carbon tax bogeyman doesn’t work anymore, and is actually becoming a liability to the government.

    And boats ain’t even close to enough to save them. And may yet become a liability.

  22. “@SenatorWong: Labor moves Senate motion requiring the Govt to make a statement in the Senate on TPP negotiations. Deadline 4pm Thursday.”

    Fantastic. Maybe some transparency

  23. bemused

    [Obviously an amendment should be moved to cut out all forms of religious funding by any means.]

    Great idea. I’m sure Ms Lambie would be mortified if some people thought she might be just be targeting Muslims.

  24. [Turnbull asks the speaker that Plibersek refer to members by their correct titles. Plibersek – “The future PM his majesty of Wentworth”. 😆 ]


  25. All those people comparing Peter Dutton to a cabbage, eat your heart out!

    [FEDERAL Government minister Peter Dutton has joined surfing legend Kelly Slater in making the move to Palm Beach’s millionaires’ row.

    Property records show Mr Dutton settled on a two-storey beachfront home at Jefferson Lane on December 15 last year.

    Mr Dutton’s secret purchase was not without a hefty price tag — at $2.325 million, the third-highest sale on the prestigious strip last year.

    The 44-year-old was shifted from his role as Minister for Health and Sport — where he was involved in the controversial GP co-payment scheme — to the Minister for Immigration and Border Protection just days after the settlement.]

  26. [Concern growing inside govt ranks that a deal has already been done with Japan on submarines]

    If true, it certainly shows how much the PM can be taken on his word.

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