I wouldn’t normally lead with a Morgan poll so soon after a Newspoll result, but today of course is a special occasion (for future generations who might happen to be reading this, Tony Abbott today beat off a spill motion by the unconvincing margin of 61 to 39). After conducting an unusual poll last time in which the field work period was extended and the surveying limited to a single weekend, this is back to the usual Roy Morgan practice of combining face-to-face and SMS polling from two weeks, with field work conducted only on Saturdays and Sundays, with a sample of around 3000 (2939 to be precise about it). So the poll was half conducted in the knowledge that a spill was imminent, and half not.
On the primary vote, there has been a straight two-point shift from the Coalition to Labor since the previous poll, which was conducted from January 23-27, with Australia Day and the Prince Philip knighthood having landed on January 26. This puts Labor on 41.5% and the Coalition on 35.5%, with the Greens steady on 12% and Palmer United down one to 2%. A slightly better flow of preferences for the Coalition blunts the impact a little on the headline respondent-allocated two-party figure, on which Labor’s lead is up from 56.5-43.5 to 57.5 to 42.5. The move is a little bigger on previous election preferences, from 55.5-44.5 to 57-43. Tomorrow’s Essential Research should complete the cycle of pre-spill opinion polling, and I’m well and truly back in my old routine of updating BludgerTrack overnight on Wednesday/Thursday.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research’s reputation for stability emerges unharmed with another 54-46 reading this week, with the Coalition up a point to 39%, Labor steady on 41%, the Greens up one to 10% and Palmer United steady on 3%. It’s a different story on the monthly reading of Tony Abbott’s leadership ratings, with approval down eight to 27% and disapproval up nine to 62%. However, Bill Shorten’s position has also sharply worsened, with approval down six to 33% and disapproval up five to 38%. Given this is nowhere reflected in other polling, one might surmise that Essential has hit bad samples for Labor over consecutive weeks. Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister is nonetheless out from 37-35 to 39-31.
Other questions find 59% approval for the government dropping its paid parental leave scheme versus 25% for disapprove; 59% support for same-sex marriage, up four since December, with 28% opposed, down four; 26% saying support for same-sex marriage might favourably influence vote choice, 19% saying it would do so unfavourably, and 48% saying it would make no difference; 44% favouring a negative response to government retention of personal data and information against 38% for a positive one; and a suite of questions on privatisation that do a fair bit to explain what happened to Campbell Newman.
[John Reidy
Posted Wednesday, February 11, 2015 at 2:24 pm | PERMALINK
was that a smirk on Abbott’s face, when answering a question from Wilkie on the co payment?
he was saying he was the ‘best friend Medicare ever had’]
Abbott has repeated that line for yonks. The barnacle scraping and re-setting has had absolutely no effect on Abbott’s political approach.
I think the land tax in SA is a great idea. I have also paid stamp duty, but I accept the system needs to change. Besides, those of us over fifty who are honest with ourselves will admit we paid far less in stamp duty than they do today. Now it costs 1/3 of an average annual salary. It was nothing like that 20 years go.
It is a massively inequitable system, stinging the young and new arrivals to fund things the whole community need. it also deters land speculation, and those who sit on land and do nothign with it, a scourge blighting some Adelaide suburbs. Consider the Le Cornu site in North Adelaide.
The fact is, we need to raise more tax, and a tax on land ownership is far more progressive than taxes on low income earners and cutting benefits.
Well done Jay Weatherall. A gutsy move, but badly needed.
[ Mr Abbott said one of the arguments for a summit was it would force the Labor opposition to release its economic plan. ]
[ Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen said a summit would be a good idea if the government took a constructive approach rather than using it to make “cheap political points”. ]
Translated: WE have no idea what we are doing and are desperate to knock off ideas from the Opposition and look for ways to wedge them. And FU Bowen, we will be going for as many cheap political points as we can and are annoyed you haven’t given us the opportunity to score them so far.
They pretty much HAVE to schedule this pre Budget? Tactically it would make sense.
Could be an interesting opportunity for the ALP though, IF Bowen as Treasurer has the skills to exploit it.
Socrates,
Just saying that it’s not Hockey’s inabilty to convince the Senate to pass the necessary laws that’s at issue.
They haven’t put anything that looksl ike the necessary laws to the Senate.
It depends oh how you meaure it, but of the $56b black hole mentioned in the papers aroudn $10-15b is blocked by the Senate.
It’s not hard to do the maths…
Abbott proving the Labor NSW advertisement absolutely right.
“@vanOnselenP: PM says competitive evaluation process, Senator Edwards says the PM told him tender…dear oh dear, it continues. #QT”
On twitter
[PM says competitive evaluation process, Senator Edwards says the PM told him tender…dear oh dear, it continues. #QT]
John Reidy
[was that a smirk on Abbott’s face]
He always gets that look when he says some outrageous bullshit like that and “the lefties” can’t do anything about it.
guytaur
Snaparoo
Libertarian Unionist@1297
Thanks for that.
No, I am not in South Australia, I was just pointing to what I saw as an issue to be dealt with. And you did up to a point.
Regarding 3, doesn’t the purchaser pay stamp duty? You are assuming the sale price includes the amount of stamp duty that would have been payable so that the seller gets the benefit and not the purchaser.
If it succeeds in SA, I am sure it will spread.
“@SwannyQLD: Abbott has thrown South Australia overboard #qt”
Soc, good points.
[It is a massively inequitable system, stinging the young and new arrivals to fund things the whole community need.]
…and ignoring the private benefit existing property owners get from those community investments. That’s what gets my goat the most about stamp duty!
BB @1156:
Labor shouldn’t be releasing policies right now, I agree – except in general terms, to establish contrasts with the Government.
What Labor absolutely must do – and I hope they ARE doing – is develop their policy set, work up ads ready to be placed on media at short notice and generally be ready for a snap election.
Because if/when another leadership spill happens and Abbott loses, whoever wins will probably call a snap election to capitalize on “Thank GOD Abbott’s gone!” sentiment.
Labor needs to be ready to redirect that sentiment toward their own benefit, not Abbott’s successor’s benefit.
Puff@1281: “None of which makes the executions in Indonesia any less barbaric, backward and reprehensible.”
You are a fellow poster whom I respect, so I hope you won’t think I am having a go at you. But it is the use of words such as “barbaric” and “backward” that upset the Indonesians. They hear these criticisms being made by citizens of a predominantly-White nation that was established by colonisation towards Asian people who, until recently, were oppressed by White colonists (in a pretty “barbaric” way, if you read the histories of Dutch rule).
I agree with you that imposition of the death penalty for civilian crimes is wrong, under any circumstances. (I’m not sure I’m totally opposed to the imposition of the death penalty for war crimes.) But Indonesia is a civilised society, and the wrongness of the death penalty as they apply it is still civilised, not “barbaric” or “backwards”. It is applied by a democratic country with a properly-constituted and independent judicial system through due legal process.
We have every right to disagree with Indonesia’s policy in this regard (and that of many other countries). But the fact that they have this policy (one that existed in WA up to 1984) does not make them inferior people who aren’t worthy of our full respect: any more than the fact that a relatively small number of Australians elected Pauline Hanson to Parliament allows Indonesians to think of us as a nation of yobbo racists. (Which the Balinese already, quite justifiably, already think on the basis of the behaviour of some of our tourists.)
That’s the point I’m trying to make.
Abbott’s program for the “economic summit”
1. What Murdoch wants
2. What the IPA wants
3. What the rest of the 1% want
4. What Joe Hockey would want if he had any idea about anything
5. Why the 99% deserve nothing
6. Why it’s all Labor’s fault
Abbott’s answer to Feeney question brings only one conclusion.
What a fool
Why is the HoR so noisy? Have the mics been adjusted, or something? Or why doesn’t Bronnie shut them up?
bemused
[Regarding 3, doesn’t the purchaser pay stamp duty? You are assuming the sale price includes the amount of stamp duty that would have been payable so that the seller gets the benefit and not the purchaser.]
You raise a fair point. I am assuming that the buyer pays up to their ability and willingness, and that they don’t care where the money goes, just that it isn’t in their possession any more – so the existence of stamp duty doesn’t affect their bidding behaviour.
The vendor get’s less under a stamp duty regime, and more without stamp duty, ceteris paribus.
But other things are different because of the new land tax regime. Specifically, this will affect a bidder/buyer’s ability to service their loan, and reduce the sale price. By how much… I’ve not done the analysis to give you an answer on that.
“@sortius: Tony slanders Treasury & wonders why his budget can’t get passed #qt`”
@BernardKeane: Former Defence Minister David Johnston lauds a fleet comms contract that was – shock horror! – put to open tender http://t.co/dpql8UW235
[bemused
Posted Wednesday, February 11, 2015 at 2:11 pm | Permalink
Barney in Saigon@1286
bemused
Posted Wednesday, February 11, 2015 at 10:46 am | Permalink
psyclaw@1122
It was a reference to ALP members voting for the leader.
]
Sorry, misread.
🙂
1297
No the money that previously flowed to the state does not necessarily flow to land sellers because it it a tax on buyers not sellers. There has to be enough demand in the market, at least 2 bidders at an auction, willing and to push the property price up to the old price plus the old stamp duty even with the new land tax to pay along side any mortgage they need.
Can’t count killer question
meher baba@1313
Indonesians, not just their government, have been upset by the execution of their citizens by other countries such as Saudi Arabia.
Our best approach, and it is probably too late now for Chan and Sukamyan, might be to join with Indonesia and campaign against capital punishment generally.
“@shanebazzi: .@Bowenchris: given Labor has 25 seats in the senate while Coalition has 33, does PM have confidence in a Treasurer who cannot count? #qt”
Has Shorten/ALP reminded Abbott in QT of his hypocrisy in how he cut 500m from indigenous funding? I hope so.
The right wing will no doubt see Abbott’s performance in QT as strong today. All he does he rant and say whatever he wants regardless of the question, confident in the knowledge that Bronnie will not pull him up for relevance or to actually answer the question.
Ye Gads. With the Libs, the more they talk change the more they stay the same. How often have they recycled the exact same talking points from when they were in Opposition??
Henry
Was the first question
“@shanebazzi: .@Bowenchris seeks leave to table the composition of the senate “it’s even got a pie chart to make it easier for the Treasurer” lol #qt”
ok thanks guytaur, missed the start. Abbott waffled into irrelevance no doubt.
guytaur 1328 – Finally!!
so I am to pay a rates bill of 1200 bucks pa, plus a new land tax bill of 1200 bucks pa, on my residential property that i will never sell, to subsidise people who buy and sell properties? Fork that for a joke.
I fled the building… couldn’t stand being in there any longer.
Basic observations
* Every time the PM would wander around on the Sub questions, you could see the back-bench faces drop. A couple of times, Hockey looked a little concerned and willing him to get the answer right.
* Paul Kelly didn’t crack a single smile. The only time he laughed was the second time the PM dropped that utterly stupid line about the Russians and North Koreans building subs… when the rest of the Gallery looked at each other with perplexed faces.
* Whenever the PM talking about the “evaluation”, the public gallery was full of snickers.
lizzie
The difference in the noise in the chamber is confidence.
J3
Thank you. Very illuminating. Appreciate it a lot. 🙂
[The fact is, we need to raise more tax, and a tax on land ownership is far more progressive than taxes on low income earners and cutting benefits.
Well done Jay Weatherall. A gutsy move, but badly needed.]
so true – although federal labor’s best political strategy is probably to just let the Captain call ‘full steam ahead’ as the LNP heads towards the budget iceberg – Labor could also articulate some fairer, progressive tax and savings initiatives they’d support in opposition and enact in government, including the option of scrapping regressive taxes, gradually increasing some taxes and gently closing loopholes so the pain is reduced would be clever in my view. they also need to focus on budget deficits and managing debt (& even borrowing at low bond rates for some major projects) rather than paying off the debt. so long as they are not racking up debt for expenses rather than investment I think they can tell a good story. They can make the points that businesses borrow to invest, and households borrow to invest – and australia is secure enough to pay off your investments where the net benefit justifies borrowing. the point could be made “government debt is not the same as household debt where you save for your retirement – if you knew you were going to live forever and had capacity earn at your current rate or better for the rest of your life, would you not borrow to invest for the future? This is where howard got it wrong – he did not invest in the future and we’re starting to pay for it.”
Abbott has been reading the criticism of himself and in an excited and repetitive answer to a question, he quotes one.
“[The Oposition Leader] was part of the worst government in history and he can’t change.”
That’s all Shorten (and all Labor MPs) should focus on – the return of a fair go for all Australians.
“A Fair Go” is fundamental to Australian culture, but we need reminding, particularly the bogan swinging voters which the LNP bogan slogans were/are designed to persuade.
Bishop Naming Member for Isaacs
“@SabraLane: The Speaker has named Mark Dreyfus … not sure what happened, but there was uproar on govt benches just before he was named.”
What an absolute farce this has descended to under Bronnie.
Julie B losing the plot and Bronnie simply refusing to take a POO from Burke.
bemused@1323: As I understand it, Yudhoyono ran the anti-capital punishment line with the Saudis and others at a time when he had applied a moratorium on the death penalty within Indonesia. At the same time, he showed clemency to some foreign nationals who had run foul of the law in Indonesia.
Widodo needs to project an image of strength and resolve in the face of an implied threat to his rule from the military, and this presumably has influenced him in taking such a hard line on executing foreign nationals.
It’s rotten luck for those foreigners currently sentenced to death. But it was a risk they accepted took when they chose to try to smuggle drugs out of a country which has long applied the death penalty for that particular crime.
Unlike the western aid workers executed after being taken hostage in places like Afghanistan and Syria, the drug smugglers are to a significant extent the authors of their own problems. It doesn’t mean that it is right for them to be executed, but it does mean that Australians shouldn’t be surprised to find that the average Indonesian finds our complaints to be way out of proportion, if not patronising and offensive.
J341983
So you attended qt today. Lucky you!
The Member for Isaacs “waved some papers” as he left the chamber.
Henry
I hope Tony Burke gets stuck in to the speaker after this division is dealt with.
I didn’t get back inside soon enough to see what was getting Julie Bishop so enraged. Can anybody fill me in?
meher baba 1341 – thanks for those entries. I tried my best with SBY and was hopeful that he would commute thier sentences before leaving office. But it is sad that under Jokowi the whole process has become very politicised. Sad too for the other prisoners in that jail that have benefited a lot from Andrew Chan and Myuran Sukamaran’s help.
BK
Plibesek asked if her upcoming visit to Paris for Climate talks was going to be supervised?
[No the money that previously flowed to the state does not necessarily flow to land sellers because it it a tax on buyers not sellers. There has to be enough demand in the market, at least 2 bidders at an auction, willing and to push the property price up to the old price plus the old stamp duty even with the new land tax to pay along side any mortgage they need.]
I agree and disagree with bits of this. Your first point is just wrong, because bidders incorporate their stamp duty liability into their maximum bid according to:
[deposit + loan – stampDuty = maximum Bid]
So if stampDuty does down, maximum bid goes up. Plus, in an (English) auction, there needs to be a second bidder for one of the two to hit their maximum bid.
The second effect is that the loan available to the bidder will be reduced if the bidder has a yearly land tax obligation (i.e. loan servicability is reduced). By how much? What’s the NPV of the tax liability? I haven’t crunched the numbers.
Thanks guytaur
Shorten up in HoR for those enjoying his speeches lately.