I wouldn’t normally lead with a Morgan poll so soon after a Newspoll result, but today of course is a special occasion (for future generations who might happen to be reading this, Tony Abbott today beat off a spill motion by the unconvincing margin of 61 to 39). After conducting an unusual poll last time in which the field work period was extended and the surveying limited to a single weekend, this is back to the usual Roy Morgan practice of combining face-to-face and SMS polling from two weeks, with field work conducted only on Saturdays and Sundays, with a sample of around 3000 (2939 to be precise about it). So the poll was half conducted in the knowledge that a spill was imminent, and half not.
On the primary vote, there has been a straight two-point shift from the Coalition to Labor since the previous poll, which was conducted from January 23-27, with Australia Day and the Prince Philip knighthood having landed on January 26. This puts Labor on 41.5% and the Coalition on 35.5%, with the Greens steady on 12% and Palmer United down one to 2%. A slightly better flow of preferences for the Coalition blunts the impact a little on the headline respondent-allocated two-party figure, on which Labor’s lead is up from 56.5-43.5 to 57.5 to 42.5. The move is a little bigger on previous election preferences, from 55.5-44.5 to 57-43. Tomorrow’s Essential Research should complete the cycle of pre-spill opinion polling, and I’m well and truly back in my old routine of updating BludgerTrack overnight on Wednesday/Thursday.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research’s reputation for stability emerges unharmed with another 54-46 reading this week, with the Coalition up a point to 39%, Labor steady on 41%, the Greens up one to 10% and Palmer United steady on 3%. It’s a different story on the monthly reading of Tony Abbott’s leadership ratings, with approval down eight to 27% and disapproval up nine to 62%. However, Bill Shorten’s position has also sharply worsened, with approval down six to 33% and disapproval up five to 38%. Given this is nowhere reflected in other polling, one might surmise that Essential has hit bad samples for Labor over consecutive weeks. Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister is nonetheless out from 37-35 to 39-31.
Other questions find 59% approval for the government dropping its paid parental leave scheme versus 25% for disapprove; 59% support for same-sex marriage, up four since December, with 28% opposed, down four; 26% saying support for same-sex marriage might favourably influence vote choice, 19% saying it would do so unfavourably, and 48% saying it would make no difference; 44% favouring a negative response to government retention of personal data and information against 38% for a positive one; and a suite of questions on privatisation that do a fair bit to explain what happened to Campbell Newman.
Steven Grant Haby@1224
Someone should remind voters of this MP walking out at the next election.
Joe Morrison doing a cracker speech and Q&A in the NPC.
TPOF
[SF @ 1211
“I AM accusing the LNP pandering to racists and xenophobes and the ALP being weak as piss in their response.”
As I noted in an earlier post, for once I think this is unfair on the Government (and the ALP). Whatever they did or did not do, the Government was going to provide grist for the mill of the Indonesians politicians and their president to pursue their low cost (to them) and high return populist resumption of executions.]
i was not talking about the bali nine – I was talking about treatment of refugees. I think the ALP and LNP are fine in their actions regarding the bali condemned.
I wish I hadn’t confused the topics. my point re: the bali nine was simply that I suspect there’d be more community outrage/ support if they looked whiter. Their crime was a very serious one – getting dumb bogans to be mules for heroin in indonesia shows they were really nasty people. I’ve lost family and friends to heroin, as have many people, so have little sympathy for leaders of heroin smuggling rings- but they do seem reformed and the death penalty is barbaric at any time.
BB @ 1248
I’m in two minds about this. On the one hand, he was treated by Abbott with a brutality that only a psychopath could engage in without compunction because he stood between Abbott and power.
On the other hand, the original accusation, that he helped himself for his own private benefit to the union dues of some of the most poorly paid people, still has enormous weight. He did – and it was utterly shameful. The fact that he screwed Labor royally by denying absolutely that he had done it in order to keep his preselection in 2010 only adds to his misconduct.
So, I don’t know about this. In a sense, he has suffered enough punishment. I’m certainly interested to see what happens with Kathy Jackson, against whom much more serious (though less prurient) allegations have been made.
dave @ 1239
‘beserk’
It must be about time for those Greens who so heartily lauded SYRIZAN bad faith to acknowledge that bad faith is, in and of itself, destructive.
http://www.theage.com.au/world/after-anwar-ibrahim-sentenced-malaysian-authorities-arrest-popular-cartoonist-zunar-20150211-13bnef.html
Repercussions are taking place after Anwar sentenced to prison.
Re xenophobia and the Bali Nine.
What I’ve heard in the media in recent weeks is a lot of patronizing, insensitive rhetoric towards Indonesia, just as we heard before re Schappelle.
I mean, how dare they apply the full force of their legal system to Australians who commit serious crimes in their country! Don’t they know that Australian criminals are special and different to Indonesian ones, are fabulous artists and deeply spiritual people!
Indonesians see Australians as being still colonials in our attitudes. The Australian left (once revered for helping Sukarno in the 1940s) is particularly mistrusted due to its stance on Timor, Irian Jaya, etc.
Many Australians might see themselves as being on the side of goodness and human rights and so forth, but many Indonesians – including liberal intellectuals – see us as patronizing colonials.
Oh dear!
From the linked article, re: Ashby
[WHOOPS!
IT SEEMS even the Federal Court of Australia can be prone to awkward typos.
“When so read, we do not agree that Ashby was deprived of the opportunity to be hard,” Paragraph 51 of the judgment reads. Should that read “heard” and not “hard”?]
bemused = curmudgeon works :), although I tend to think Walter Mattheau as a ‘curmudgeon’ whereas you seem more in the Alan Jones camp (no, not that ‘camp’ – I mean the unthinking, wildly generalising, and un-imaginatively/un-amusingly abusive camp).
Being called ‘precious and thin skinned’ by someone who meets any perceived slight with over the top abuse and foam-mouthed raving is…well, bemusing.
that’s all.
[1249
Matt
So the Rabbott’s flagging a “New Zealand-lite” path for Australia’s Budget, noting as justification that the NZ Government was cut from 35% to 30% of GDP in its expenditures.
a) Is this necessarily a good thing?
b) Given that Australian tax receipts are already among the lowest in the OECD, do we really need to cut them as the IPA advocate?
c) Where will the cuts in May’s Budget fall, Mr. Abbott?]
Abbott is talking about both cutting the budget and increasing it (his supposed family package) at the same time. He has to try to satisfy contradictory expectations of the IPA and the electorate at the same time and is creating even more political trouble for himself.
There is no double jeopardy between criminal and civil proceedings because of the differing standards of proof.
If there was, a pedo who beats criminal charges because a jury of 12 is not persuaded, could tell his or her victims to get stuffedd in any civil proceedings.
The commissioner being satisfied as to a case (which is unsurprising given that facts supporting the offences were admitted) would be derelict not to proceed when there is a case already on.
Abbott rolls out another “I love this country” (lightly tapping hand on heart). Taking the “scoundrel’s last resort” path ? But then the way is going people would be needing a lot of reassurance about that point.
Sustainable future@1259
You obviously read my posts very selectively and are hyper-sensitive to being labeled a ‘Green’.
[Many Australians might see themselves as being on the side of goodness and human rights and so forth, but many Indonesians – including liberal intellectuals – see us as patronizing colonials.]
fair point. I agree about some of the media and maybe should be glad public sentiment has not been whipped up along those lines. i think there is agreement they should remain in prison for a terrible crime – but the death sentence is the issue.
our case would be stronger if our government made a point of objecting through diplomatic channels to every execution in every country – including the US.
I’m very happy for anyone to have upset the indonesians re: Timor and West Papua – THEY are/were the ones being ‘colonial’/ genocidal in these occupied nations.
[I’m in two minds about this. On the one hand, he was treated by Abbott with a brutality that only a psychopath could engage in without compunction because he stood between Abbott and power.]
I suggest that’s far too judgemental.
The man’s been found Not Guilty He couldn’t be tried in a court again for the offences, due to double jeopardy.
He’s been financially ruined, shamed and kicked out of his party and the Parliament via dis-endorsement. His name has been dragged through the mud, with accusations that he was guilty of hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of fraud on hundreds of occasions His home has been staked out by ambulance chasing journos and rancid shock jocks. His wife has been spied on, even in the shower.
The final result showed that most of the charges were not actionable at law, in that they were notagainst any laws. On the remaining charges he has paid the penalty as prescribed by law.
The FW Commissioner rambles on about what the public expects. The public has long forgotten Craig Thomson, and if asked I think most would say he’s been punished enough. He’s a forty-plus year old man who essentially has to start his life again. He does not need, nor does he deserve any more aggro over charges that were thrown out of a proper criminal court, not some Mickey Mouse FW tribunal just because the Commissioner seems to have a grudge.
There is no public interest in Thomson being flayed alive, propped back up and then flayed again. Murderers don’t get such harsh treatment, or receive such public opprobrium.
There is too much of the great Australian habit of Wowserism in this: people looking morally down on others, wagging their fingers at them and condemning them to make their own sorry selves feel better about their lousy lot. Let him be to get on with the rest of his life.
This is all while rich financiers and company executives quietly pay back the money and resign their jobs… and resignation is often optional.
Enough’s enough.
Is Melissa Price the fat blond who was trundling around with Abbott on Monday morning?
[So the Rabbott’s flagging a “New Zealand-lite” path for Australia’s Budget]
A surplus ? Wow what an effort 🙂
[New Zealand forecasts 2014-15 surplus in budget that bears striking difference to Australia’s]
BB @ 1265
That is my dilemma though in thinking about this. You are right that he has already been punished extrajudicially to an extent that does not begin to be justified by what he did – but he did do what he did. He denied to all and sundry he used the card and he, along with Michael Williamson (who might have gotten off too lightly) gave high explosives to those determined to destroy the union movement.
Ugly stuff all round.
poroti
[Abbott rolls out another “I love this country” (lightly tapping hand on heart).]
Alas, the feeling is not mutual.
If opposing the death penalty makes me a patronising colonial, so be it. Just because other barbaric nations, like the USA, want to kill their own citizens, does not mean I have to be quiet when they want to kill Australians. It just depends in which era one’s country wants exist in. The death penalty belongs in the backblocks of ignorant history, along with human and animal sacrifice to the Gods and drowning female children.
signed
Colonial Patroniser.
BB
And don’t forget Craig Thompson’s chief accuser is herself facing allegations of far worse misconduct.
I wonder whether Kathy Jackson is still besties with all those Tories who had her up on a pedestal with Joan of Arc.
“It is always better not to rush things, to get them right.”
Then the PM admits rushing a few things last year.
I’m tired of being asked for absolution.
Talking about FWA restarting action against Thomson, presumably Abbott’s union RC will fire up again soon?
I am a Green, so have no problem with the ‘label’. I have a problem with someone who thinks ‘typical green’, ‘grub’, and other reactionary name calling wins an argument and is a substitute for arguing your point.
for example (paraphrasing):
Me: “the ALP’s support for Manus and pandering to the racist/xenophobic vote is immoral and gutless”
You: “you are a grub and typify the worst on the greens”
whereas you could try
“Several leading labor MPs speak out against their policy, and there is no doubt they will pursue a more humane policy when in government”.
OR
“only votes matter”
“it is not immoral, because …..(I’ll leave that to you – but I think your inability to finish that sentence is the root of your abusive dismissal of the topic)
Is the execution of two men in Indonesia a unicorn, of sorts?
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander adults are 15 times more likely to be imprisoned than non-Indigenous Australians.
From 2000-2013, the imprisonment rate for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander adults increased 57 per cent while the non-Indigenous rate remained fairly stable.
The juvenile detention rate for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people is around 24 times the rate for non-Indigenous youth.
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders have reported being the victim of physical or threatened violence at 1.8 times the rate of non-Indigenous adults.
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women are hospitalised for family violence-related assault at 31 times the rate of non-Indigenous women.
Hello all. Busy at work lately so not much time to comment. After the laughter died down following teh Liberal leadership motion being defeated on Monday, I have found the subsequent politics extraordinary. Abbott, fighting for his political life, promises more consultation and a change in style. Yet within a day we see the submarine contract fiasco unfold, starting with some nonsense words uttered by Tony, when the Defence Minister was nowhere in sight.
Yesterday Joe Hockey, the other dead man walking, said the budget “may never get back into surplus”.
http://www.watoday.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/budget-may-never-get-back-to-surplus-says-joe-hockey-20150210-13b2aq.html
WTF? He pilloried Swan for four years for not achieving a surplus within 18 months of the GFC. He said Swan should resign. He warned of a debt tsunami. Now he does far worse by his own admission, and the deficit grows to double what it was under Swan, yet he does not resign.
Surely this is not a change in style or substance? The same tired old men, are delivering the same tired old fear mongering. The only difference is that now they are in govenrment, not in opposition. Surely these two men (Abbott and Hockey) are not up to the job. Good day all.
Another RC in to pink batts must be on the cards.
Some people say that execution by shooting squad is barbaric.
Hello?
How many women and children have Australian military personnel despatched barbarically since, say, the commencement of Australia’s involvement in the Vietnam War.
Hundreds? Thousands? Tens of thousands?
Who knows? We don’t even count them.
We don’t tie aboriginal people to a post and shoot them. We might stick them in a back of a van in extreme heat until they die, as a result of appalling racism and lack of duty of care, but our courts don’t order other australians to shoot their chests apart.
[Is Melissa Price the fat blond who was trundling around with Abbott on Monday morning?]
not very PC for a Trot, Leon :). You should write obits for the Oz perhaps.
BW
None of which makes the executions in Indonesia any less barbaric, backward and reprehensible.
PTMD
Aboriginal deaths in custody, including by way of being beaten to death by policepersons, are going up.
You are far more likely to be an Aboriginal who dies in custody in Australia than you are being an Ausrtralian who dies in custody in Australia.
Lo! First question from Mr Shorten is on this very topic!
A sustainable budget surplus is beyond the government’s control, as Joe Hockey has come to realise
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/11/a-sustainable-budget-surplus-is-beyond-the-governments-control-as-joe-hockey-has-come-to-realise
PTMD
It is intersting that all sorts of people who have become fired up about the Bali Two continue to show profound indifference to Indigenous incarceration and its deadly consequences.
And that includes their own citizens as well as foreigners.
[bemused
Posted Wednesday, February 11, 2015 at 10:46 am | Permalink
psyclaw@1122
The few anti Shorten PBers …
I didn’t vote for him and had reservations about him, but he has done well and seems to be growing into the job. He has my support.
]
I COULDN’T vote for him because he didn’t stand in my electorate.
BW
Stop conflating the two issues. It is quite possible to hold concern for both. As I do.
Yes yes yes!
[
ALL homeowners would pay an annual land tax bill of an average $1200 in return for abolishing stamp duty under an option canvassed in the (South Australian) State Government’s tax review.]
You know it makes sense.
Things are very fiery at Senate QT at the moment.
Barney in Saigon@1286
It was a reference to ALP members voting for the leader.
FUD. Death Cult. Putin Class submarines.
[Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Posted Wednesday, February 11, 2015 at 2:07 pm | Permalink
BW
Stop conflating the two issues. It is quite possible to hold concern for both. As I do.]
My point stands.
Abbott loses it, yelling at Shorten re subs
Death cult. FUD.
Libertarian Unionist@1288
But I’ve already paid my stamp duty! 🙁
Just what we need – another “summit” promoted by Murdoch and Palmer and viewed by Abbott as a political wedge:
[TONY Abbott is willing to consider holding a national economic summit.
THE idea has been floated by Palmer United Party leader Clive Palmer and News Corp chairman Rupert Murdoch.
Speaking on a farm near Yass, in southern NSW, the prime minister said he was open to the idea.
“If some kind of national event helps, well it’s certainly something that I’ll be considering,” he told reporters on Wednesday.
Mr Abbott said one of the arguments for a summit was it would force the Labor opposition to release its economic plan.
Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen said a summit would be a good idea if the government took a constructive approach rather than using it to make “cheap political points”.]
http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/pm-backs-economic-summit-idea/story-e6frfku9-1227215918322
[But I’ve already paid my stamp duty! :(]
1. When did you move to SA?
2. Subject to a 10-15 year phase in period.
3. If and when you sell your current house, that $12-20k that went to the Govt in the past now goes to straight you.
Happy?
[ But I’ve already paid my stamp duty! 🙁 ]
I’m sure they will be happy to refund it. 🙂
Rossmcg
[A sustainable budget surplus is beyond the government’s control, as Joe Hockey has come to realise]
I thik it woudl be more accurate to say it is beyond Hockey’s ability to deliver. A sustainable budget surplus is entirely withing the governments control, since they make the tax laws! They also created the problem by cancellign some of Labor’s taxes.
What they lack is not control, but the political ability to persuade the Senate to pass the needed laws. That is because most of the Senate now regard them as liars and fools, based on their foolish lies.
was that a smirk on Abbott’s face, when answering a question from Wilkie on the co payment?
he was saying he was the ‘best friend Medicare ever had’