Morgan: 57.5-42.5 to Labor

Polling conducted over the past two weekends finds the Abbott government not unexpectedly going from very bad to worse.

I wouldn’t normally lead with a Morgan poll so soon after a Newspoll result, but today of course is a special occasion (for future generations who might happen to be reading this, Tony Abbott today beat off a spill motion by the unconvincing margin of 61 to 39). After conducting an unusual poll last time in which the field work period was extended and the surveying limited to a single weekend, this is back to the usual Roy Morgan practice of combining face-to-face and SMS polling from two weeks, with field work conducted only on Saturdays and Sundays, with a sample of around 3000 (2939 to be precise about it). So the poll was half conducted in the knowledge that a spill was imminent, and half not.

On the primary vote, there has been a straight two-point shift from the Coalition to Labor since the previous poll, which was conducted from January 23-27, with Australia Day and the Prince Philip knighthood having landed on January 26. This puts Labor on 41.5% and the Coalition on 35.5%, with the Greens steady on 12% and Palmer United down one to 2%. A slightly better flow of preferences for the Coalition blunts the impact a little on the headline respondent-allocated two-party figure, on which Labor’s lead is up from 56.5-43.5 to 57.5 to 42.5. The move is a little bigger on previous election preferences, from 55.5-44.5 to 57-43. Tomorrow’s Essential Research should complete the cycle of pre-spill opinion polling, and I’m well and truly back in my old routine of updating BludgerTrack overnight on Wednesday/Thursday.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research’s reputation for stability emerges unharmed with another 54-46 reading this week, with the Coalition up a point to 39%, Labor steady on 41%, the Greens up one to 10% and Palmer United steady on 3%. It’s a different story on the monthly reading of Tony Abbott’s leadership ratings, with approval down eight to 27% and disapproval up nine to 62%. However, Bill Shorten’s position has also sharply worsened, with approval down six to 33% and disapproval up five to 38%. Given this is nowhere reflected in other polling, one might surmise that Essential has hit bad samples for Labor over consecutive weeks. Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister is nonetheless out from 37-35 to 39-31.

Other questions find 59% approval for the government dropping its paid parental leave scheme versus 25% for disapprove; 59% support for same-sex marriage, up four since December, with 28% opposed, down four; 26% saying support for same-sex marriage might favourably influence vote choice, 19% saying it would do so unfavourably, and 48% saying it would make no difference; 44% favouring a negative response to government retention of personal data and information against 38% for a positive one; and a suite of questions on privatisation that do a fair bit to explain what happened to Campbell Newman.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,707 comments on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 25 of 35
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  2. bemused @ 1188

    [What a contrast between him and Abbott!]

    That is the very heart of Labor’s and Shorten’s strategy at the moment. Where Abbott shouted, Shorten is low-key. Where Abbott stretched the very limits of hyperbole, Shorten is straightforward. Where Abbott told the public what they should be thinking, Shorten waits to see what the public is thinking and repeats it back to them to show he is listening.

    I’ve never been a great fan of Shorten, who is very good at self-promotion and a bit too keep to fight his way to LOTO, but the logic and strategy of his approach – and the benefits to the Australian polity of returning to old-fashioned values – cannot be faulted IMHO.

  4. Its awful to admit but I am on a unity ticket with Clive Palmer.

    This is a democracy. No cuts to services. Boost the economy is what I an most Australians want.

    Bye Bye Joe Jockey.

  5. guytaur @ 1204

    As long as it does not cost Clive anything personally, he is remarkably good at identifying and enunciating a popular position. You are in agreement with him because he is, in fact, agreeing with you and me. And a whole swathe of swinging voters.

  7. lizzie@1184

    From that link in The Age.

    Stephanie Peatling:

    Should government MPs have walked out? Should Mr Shorten have mentioned budget cuts in his speech?

    I’m going to leave that discussion to one side


    Since Abbott politicises every speech he makes, why shouldn’t Shorten mention the disgraceful budget cuts.

    Not to mention the politicising of war memorial speeches.

  9. I find Joe Hockey’s repeated assertions that Labor controls the Senate rather odd. Since the public by and large thinks that the budget stinks, why give Labor all the credit? It is obviously the normal LNP tactic of repeating a convenient lie loudly and often in the knowledge that they won’t be challenged. Possibly Joe is trying to set up Labor to take the blame for the deficit blowout, with Murdoch chiming in as needed.

    Another thing he might be trying to do is hide is the Government’s inability to persuade four out of eight centrist and right wing cross-benchers to support their budget measures – the measures are that bad. Maybe he also wants to hide how bad this Government is at negotiating.

  10. Possibly Joe is trying to set up Labor to take the blame for the deficit blowout, with Murdoch chiming in as needed.

    Clearly this is Hockey’s only strategy.

    “It’s not our fault, it’s that Labor controlled Senate wot dun it!”

    Abbott was putting out the line in his 7.30 interview that Labor are in denial that there is a problem with the budget, and this is the LNP strategy for lining Labor up to take the blame for what is a clearly rapidly deteriorating budget bottom line.

  11. [bemused
    I think SF was making two separate points – one about Labor’s response to the judgement and one about Australian racism.

    Yeah, the old ‘guilt by association’ trick.]

    I absolutely was NOT accusing either the ALP or LNP of supporting the death penalty and not doing enough for those on death row (although I’d love to see the ambassadors on all countries – including the US and China – with the death penalty called in to meet the foreign minister every time they execute someone).

    I AM accusing the LNP pandering to racists and xenophobes and the ALP being weak as piss in their response.

    I think the fact a JJJ poll found a majority support for the death penalty for the bali nine leaders shows the same xenophobia/racism.

    I hardly think I’m ‘grubby’ about this – ‘grubby’ is supporting dehumanising refugees for votes and supporting your party’s acquiescence/lack of spine without question.

    I think bemused may need to change his name here to ‘crotchety and abusive old codger’ – you’re getting worse and not doing the left/progressive cause any good. try to go one day without abusing someone.

  12. Steve777@1209

    Agree with all of that.

    The other dumb thing about the approach is how bad it sounds as an excuse. The public has never been interested in excuses – that’s why Abbott actually promised his government would be a no excuses government. So, not only are they providing excuses, which go down like a lead balloon even if justified (like the GFC) but people remember how they are breaking their own promises.

    These people are political fools. And the more I see of their sheer ineptitude at a political level (leaving aside the appalling policies) the more I realise that their conduct in Opposition had little to do with being elected – it was just their dumb good luck that Labor was riven by the worst internecine feud since the split between 2010 and 2013.

  15. SF @ 1211

    [I AM accusing the LNP pandering to racists and xenophobes and the ALP being weak as piss in their response.]

    As I noted in an earlier post, for once I think this is unfair on the Government (and the ALP). Whatever they did or did not do, the Government was going to provide grist for the mill of the Indonesians politicians and their president to pursue their low cost (to them) and high return populist resumption of executions.

    The trick was to say what they could without aggravating the situation – for example, steer well clear of criticising Indonesian law or justice. Once you saw the rhetoric of Widodo and the politicians it is clear that they were dead keen on killing a small number of people because it was highly popular in a country grappling with a significant drugs problem (not that it would do any good or was even relevant in this case as the Bali 9 were taking drugs FROM Indonesians not TO them).

  16. [ What is really good about this strategy is that we could get to the point where the public will actually accept some harder measures because the Abbott/Liberal circus has convinced them that a party that promises all gain with no pain cannot ever be believed. ]

    Yup, that’s the way i hope we are headed. There is a huge compare and contrast to be done over the next election campaign. The Libs, regardless of who fronts for them (and thats how they will be portrayed, as a fronts person not a leader) will be hammered on the broken promises and unfair surprises thing. All their current leadership contenders are vulnerable since they are ALL part if Abbott’s Barely Flying Circus.

    The best they can come back with is “but we have learned from that” and why should anyone believe them.

    Shorten doing well and being well supported. If i have any doubts about the current ALP front-bench its about Bowen and how he presents. He has to get his profile up as its his job to take on and demolish Hockey. Its him who is going to have to make the case for some of the revenue measures without alienating people and i have a few concerns about his ability to do that.

  17. I think the fact a JJJ poll found a majority support for the death penalty for the bali nine leaders shows the same xenophobia/racism.

    The JJJ poll was clearly very problematic and should never have been commissioned.

    I would suspect – without any evidence as we simply can’t know what the intention of the respondents was – that the slight majority support for the execution of the ringleaders might actually show the opposite of xenophobia/racism – I think it’s reasonable to imagine that a good section of the respondents are actually saying “well, it’s not our place to tell the Indonesians what to do – it’s their country, their laws, their decision”, and one can oppose the death penalty while still allowing for respect of the Indonesians’ right to determine their own justice system, provided that basic procedural fairness etc is applied, which there doesn’t seem to be any question of in this case (at least on the Indonesian side – the behaviour of the AFP remains highly questionable on this matter in my mind).

  18. Question, talk about renewables is just another target for Abbott lied. People are a bit over politicians throwing around big numbers I reckon. But a simple Abbott said he’d keep the RET and he trying to cut it by 40%. Abbott Lied. Labor is committed to a strong Renewables Target because as Abbott’s own report proved Renewables will drive lower prices for consumers in the future.

    I agree with BB and others that Bill is playing it smart, and stepping back whilst Abbott self immolates. But I think we’re getting to the point where being a little more forceful about the one BIG and controversial policy that Labor has already committed to is needed. Most people weren’t too fussed about the ETS after it had been in a while anyway, but keep using it to punch Abbott Lied and shut down the idea that Labor is running a ‘small target strategy’ and it’s a winner.

    Also a good contrast for Bill to be out strongly proposing a nasty – the man of principle, standing for something card, not Mr Flip-flop Abbott (or Turnbull if it comes to that). Labor’s committed to it, so make it work for them. Turn your perceived weakness into a strength. Abbott will of course try and use it as his salvation, but his reputation is so shot that I reckon he’ll be told to ‘shut up about the bloody Carbon Tax you idiot’ after a short while because it’s just making Shorten look strong.

  19. TPOF

    I have been tallking to people about the Governments ineptitude for a while.

    I don’t really expect them to adopt policies of implement programs that I approve of but their political skills are below the level I would expect at the local council.

    Mind you over here in WA emperor Barnett gives them a run for their money.

  20. Here is a list of the MPs who walked during Bill’s speech

    Andrew Nikolic, Russell Broadbent, Angus Taylor, John Cobb, Ken O’Dowd and Melissa Price.

    Grubs the lot of them.

  21. Andrew Nikolic, Russell Broadbent, Angus Taylor, John Cobb, Ken O’Dowd and Melissa Price. Some of the MPs who walked out during Bill Shorten’s speech more names to come

  23. TPOF@1190

    bemused @ 1172

    I agree with all of your post except the gratuitous smack at the Greens.

    As for the two Australians facing execution, the great difficulty is that they are going to be executed for purely Indonesian populist politics. Widodo clearly believes that he has nothing to gain and everything to lose politically by sparing the two men. Executing drug smugglers is politically extremely popular in Indonesia.

    My problem, and I suspect that of the Government and Opposition here, is that if no fuss is made, the Indonesian government will say that Australians don’t care and if they do say something then it will be grist for the anti-Australian sentiment in Indonesia.

    It is tragic that politics should kill two men who do not deserve to be killed. But I cannot see a way out.

    You must be a green.

    They are always slagging off Labor and don’t like a bit of return fire. Too bad.

    Someone suggested yesterday that Abbott or Cosgrove should go to Indonesia to make a personal plea to Widodo.

    Well, keep Abbott out of it, but Cosgrove would be worth sending as our head of state and is not cringe worthy like Abbott.

    The messages should be one of general opposition to capital punishment, including Indonesians in places like Saudi Arabia.

    A second point could be the terrible punishment this is inflicting on the families. For their sons or siblings, it will all be over in a short time, but the families suffering will be for the rest of their lives. No matter what their sons / siblings have done, the families don’t deserve such ongoing torment and suffering.

    There may be other things that can be done quietly and off the record, such as offering to publicly name the highly placed Indonesian organisers of drug trafficking. The President may not want such embarrassment.

  26. “@firstdogonmoon: LNP MPs walking out are sending a clear message that any discussion about Indigenous disadvantage will be on terms chosen by white people.”

  27. Those MPs should be publicly named and shamed in QT.

    Can the opposition ask a backbencher a question in QT?

    My question is to the member for x. Why did you walk out of the speech delivered by the opposition leader today?

  32. [Broadbent is the Member for the Victorian seat of McMillan.]
    Broadbent as a so-called moderate is probably pissed at having the ugly things he has provided support to rubbed in his face.

  34. Sustainable future@1211


    —
    I AM accusing the LNP pandering to racists and xenophobes and the ALP being weak as piss in their response.

    I think the fact a JJJ poll found a majority support for the death penalty for the bali nine leaders shows the same xenophobia/racism.

    I hardly think I’m ‘grubby’ about this – ‘grubby’ is supporting dehumanising refugees for votes and supporting your party’s acquiescence/lack of spine without question.

    I think bemused may need to change his name here to ‘crotchety and abusive old codger’ – you’re getting worse and not doing the left/progressive cause any good. try to go one day without abusing someone.

    Thank you for providing me with further evidence of Greens perfidy.

    Thank you too for the free character analysis. I was amused. Try ‘curmudgeon’ next time. 😛

    You Greens are just too precious, think skinned and hypocritical.

  35. I am considering individually emailing these ‘representatives’ seeking an answer to their walkout and also writing a letter to the local newspaper… not that it would make that much difference.

  36. [1211
    Sustainable future

    I AM accusing the LNP pandering to racists and xenophobes and the ALP being weak as piss in their response.]

    There’s no evidence for these assertions.

    Sad to say, the Bali 2 will be shot because of the run of opinion in Indonesia; because the Indonesian Government has more to gain by denying clemency to foreigners, including Australians, than by granting it; and because their judicial process is designed to produce exactly this outcome in the case of convicted drug traffickers.

    Even more sadly, the more visibly and audibly an Australian Government might protest, the more likely it is that such sentences will be carried out.

    We should do what we can to advise Australians traveling to Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore that we are powerless to help them should they be convicted of a capital offence.

  37. John Reidy

    [Narns @1214
    low fuel prices of course,all the work of this govt.]
    Barnyard yesterday reckoned there was a link between their getting elected and the current big increase in wool and beef prices for farmers.

  38. [ U.S. Navy Considers Setting Up Ship Base in Australia

    (Bloomberg) — The U.S. is in talks with Australia about “basing” Navy vessels in its main South Pacific ally, Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Jonathan Greenert said, a move that would risk inflaming tensions with China.

    “We’re doing a study together with the Australia Defence Force to see what might be feasible for naval cooperation in and around Australia, which might include basing ships,” Admiral Greenert said during a speech Tuesday at a university in Canberra. It was unclear if Greenert was referring to permanent basing or rotational placement of ships.

    U.S. is in the midst of a “pivot-to-Asia” that will see 60 percent of its naval forces deployed in the region by 2020, a response to its growing strategic importance. It’s a policy China claims is an attempt to contain its own military expansion into the South China Sea and Indian Ocean.

    …While Australia has no formal U.S. naval bases, it has agreed to host as many as 2,500 Marines in the northern city of Darwin and the two countries regularly hold joint military drills.

    …“Right now it’s at the stage of, well what’s the art of the possible?,” he said. “What kind of infrastructure exists? What would it take to do that? What sort of support measures and how that would fit into the two nations’ common strategic desires, if you will, into the future.” ]

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-10/u-s-considering-basing-navy-ships-in-australia-greenert-says-i5yxouxp

  39. [ The REAL Greek Negotiations: Situation Is “Berserk”, “There Is No Plan”, “Greeks Digging Own Graves”

    …Forget any conciliation: what is going on behind the scenes a day ahead of the Eurogroup meeting is nothing short of disaster.

    “The Greeks are digging their own graves,” warns one EU official, according to MNI, with another exclaiming the Greek plan as “hopeless” and added “how can you have a plan when you make no payment obligation till the autumn and then you probably scrap that.” Simply put, speaking on condition of anonymity, an EU official described the situation as “berserk” adding “there is no plan.”

    …

    …Meanwhile, the only advisor to the new Greek government, the investment bank Lazard, is not seen as playing a positive role by the EU side to date.

    …One EU official described the Lazard bankers as “incompetent” and “counterproductive.”]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-10/truth-behind-greek-negotiations-situation-%E2%80%9Cberserk-there-no-plan-greeks-digging-own-

  45. i love that abbott and his minders are yet to realise that every time he does a slogan – particularly one of the old ones “stop the boats. axe the tax. build the roads. open for business. etc”. many people just switch-off thinking ‘that dickhead has nothing new’. labor and the greens need say outright “Australian voters aren’t silly – they know that every time they hear abbott’s empty slogans he had nothing new to offer and is trying to hide his real and unfair agenda”

  46. bemused @ 1223

    [You must be a green.]

    And you must be a Liberal because they are always simplistically labelling, without any evidence, anyone who disagrees with them.

    See how easy it is?

    In fact, I’ve virtually never voted anything but Labor since I first cast a ballot. I’ve never voted Liberal but did vote Green in the Senate in the ACT at the last election because Simon Sheikh was a hell of a better proposition than the hypocritical self-server Zed Seselja who stood for the Liberals. Labor was certain to get one seat and had no chance of getting the second.

    As far as the Greens are concerned, I would not think of giving them my first preference because the total suite of their policies reflect a party that will never have to actually govern. That does not mean that there are not some very good elements in their policies. And I respect that. I also disagree fundamentally with other elements, especially their demonstrably unrealistic unauthorised boat arrival policies.

    As others have claimed to me, I call it as I see it. Although I am not going to call it if it does nothing more than launch a pointless dialogue of the deaf full of endlessly repetitive claims (see, for example the Rudd v Gillard nonsense that flares up from time to time).

    So, no. On the original subject, I think that we are basically as helpless as Sukamaran and Chan in the face of political opportunism from the Indonesian Government and President. In fact, there is a strong similarity between the position they find themselves in and the one that faced Ronald Ryan when Henry Bolte decided he needed to bolster his standing with rednecks in 1966.

    I just don’t think this is an issue that can be neatly delineated in Australian political terms.

    As for sending over Cosgrove, etc, we don’t have any political capital with the new mob. They see no interest in playing nice with us. And we don’t have the old contacts from the old Indonesian ‘aristocracy’ who remained after Abbott wasted so much goodwill with the former government of Indonesia.

  47. Bipartisan agreement to fixing a problem doesn’t mean bipartisan blindness to (potential) mistakes/problems.

    This walkout is another demonstration that Coalition politicians believe they have all the solutions and that they are incapable of listening to other viewpoints. Someone who sincerely wants to fix a problem will take criticism on board, even if they don’t agree with it.

  48. [@political_alert: Statement from Fair Work Commission General Manager re Craig Thomson matter #auspol http://t.co/zzrneZufo1%5D

    When are they going to leave off this bloke Thomson?

    He’s been found not guilty. Surely it is not up to the FW Commissioner to analyse the verdict, looking for loopholes and then to effectively double jeopardize Thomson by trying another tack on the same factual material?

    Enough’s e-f*cking-nuff.

  49. So the Rabbott’s flagging a “New Zealand-lite” path for Australia’s Budget, noting as justification that the NZ Government was cut from 35% to 30% of GDP in its expenditures.

    a) Is this necessarily a good thing?
    b) Given that Australian tax receipts are already among the lowest in the OECD, do we really need to cut them as the IPA advocate?
    c) Where will the cuts in May’s Budget fall, Mr. Abbott?

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