Morgan: 57.5-42.5 to Labor

Polling conducted over the past two weekends finds the Abbott government not unexpectedly going from very bad to worse.

I wouldn’t normally lead with a Morgan poll so soon after a Newspoll result, but today of course is a special occasion (for future generations who might happen to be reading this, Tony Abbott today beat off a spill motion by the unconvincing margin of 61 to 39). After conducting an unusual poll last time in which the field work period was extended and the surveying limited to a single weekend, this is back to the usual Roy Morgan practice of combining face-to-face and SMS polling from two weeks, with field work conducted only on Saturdays and Sundays, with a sample of around 3000 (2939 to be precise about it). So the poll was half conducted in the knowledge that a spill was imminent, and half not.

On the primary vote, there has been a straight two-point shift from the Coalition to Labor since the previous poll, which was conducted from January 23-27, with Australia Day and the Prince Philip knighthood having landed on January 26. This puts Labor on 41.5% and the Coalition on 35.5%, with the Greens steady on 12% and Palmer United down one to 2%. A slightly better flow of preferences for the Coalition blunts the impact a little on the headline respondent-allocated two-party figure, on which Labor’s lead is up from 56.5-43.5 to 57.5 to 42.5. The move is a little bigger on previous election preferences, from 55.5-44.5 to 57-43. Tomorrow’s Essential Research should complete the cycle of pre-spill opinion polling, and I’m well and truly back in my old routine of updating BludgerTrack overnight on Wednesday/Thursday.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research’s reputation for stability emerges unharmed with another 54-46 reading this week, with the Coalition up a point to 39%, Labor steady on 41%, the Greens up one to 10% and Palmer United steady on 3%. It’s a different story on the monthly reading of Tony Abbott’s leadership ratings, with approval down eight to 27% and disapproval up nine to 62%. However, Bill Shorten’s position has also sharply worsened, with approval down six to 33% and disapproval up five to 38%. Given this is nowhere reflected in other polling, one might surmise that Essential has hit bad samples for Labor over consecutive weeks. Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister is nonetheless out from 37-35 to 39-31.

Other questions find 59% approval for the government dropping its paid parental leave scheme versus 25% for disapprove; 59% support for same-sex marriage, up four since December, with 28% opposed, down four; 26% saying support for same-sex marriage might favourably influence vote choice, 19% saying it would do so unfavourably, and 48% saying it would make no difference; 44% favouring a negative response to government retention of personal data and information against 38% for a positive one; and a suite of questions on privatisation that do a fair bit to explain what happened to Campbell Newman.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,707 comments on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5 to Labor”

  1. Have thought a bit about today personally – i think it was historical in the end, in that it amounted to beginning of end, the endplay as someone here has phrased it, of LP in this country.

    if it is it will a deserved end too – the party twice voted for this misfit, and all he represents – given a chance on the second go with all evidence to contrary the vote increased. there is no need to add to avalanche of appraisal of abbott. what is more timely for today was the failure of Turnbull. I agree entirely with shorten’s speech (which was breathtakingly good and can be found on youtube) in demolishing the track record and policies and personal qualities of this business end of town candidate. Thinking now

    I am not sure what the fuss was all about – his personal demeanor is copybook version of GPS culture, and demeanor along is not enough for national office or leadership. His has some ‘hobby’ one might say interests in climate republic and maybe maybe telecommunication but put to crunch these are paper thin. Look if he really believe in such things and in failure of govt he would have stood for office and stood down from ministry -he would have garnered considerable respect in doing so and ensured his eventual role as party leader. This last week confirmed an “ambiguity” (as shorten termed it) that has gone on far too long. Obviously he faces opposition in the party – but I cant see recovery from the events of today.

    Personally, looking at his presentation today and before that, I don’t know what the fuss is all about – we must be pretty desperate to hang hope on his enriched indeed privileged coat-tails. Is there any evidence on most issues that he would differ from any of the existing policies. None I can think of – he could even be worse, a true trojan horse to electorate. Yet he was pragmatically the only and last chance for this sad rightest party to find a coherent future and today put paid to that. the door is open to progressive emerging directions within and beyond the labor parties to pick up the spoils.

    I was glad shorten underlined his mention of the republic in his speech – we can begin to pick up real national debates slowly freed from howard and abbott regimes of bullying propaganda and national cringing, that in the end is about very little except self regard and financial aggrandisement. If that is so then the wait – esp these abbott years now extended excruciatingly into the future months – might just have been worth it.

  2. the above is for the mean spirited bemuse who needs a reading and literary primer … there’s enough smart ar…comments around matey old pedagogue

  3. ctar1 — my comments were sincere and well chosen – i expect better and more sincere responses on such contributions on this blog.

  4. ctar1

    no patronising comments on pars either – i know what is good and bad writing and this ephemeral place does not need the best – however my comments were careful. i will not boast about writing skills – when i chose a style or change a rule it is deliberate

    the pars are for slow readers

  5. zomster

    [Not only has Abbott and the Liberals not learnt anything, even more tragically, the media hasn’t. We now have a string of dutiful reports that Abbott has learnt his lesson and will change.]

    I couldn’t believe how meekly the so-called senior reporters accepted this, unless it has been drummed into them that they are not allowed to express a personal opinion.

  6. Labor leads federally 63-37 in Victoria. How many seats would the Libs have left in that state if this was the case?

    Victoria seems ahead of the trend. Another year of Tony and the national polling will probably be 63-37.

  7. geoffrey

    Having your thoughts here is worthwhile.

    Fading eyesight means that the breaks allow some time to digest before going back and find the next point easily.

  8. geoffrey@9

    ctar1

    no patronising comments on pars either – i know what is good and bad writing and this ephemeral place does not need the best – however my comments were careful. i will not boast about writing skills – when i chose a style or change a rule it is deliberate

    the pars are for slow readers

    😮 Then why not take the further steps I suggested?

    You can do it! One big sentence. 😆

  9. The Coalition copped a stray 60.5-39.5 on respondent-allocated 2PP from Morgan on June 7/8, a few weeks after the budget. That was 59-41 on previous election preferences. Sticking to the latter so I can compare like with like, there have been four 57-43s in the past fortnight – two from Galaxy, one from Newspoll and now one from Morgan – which share second place behind aforesaid Morgan poll as the Abbott government’s worst result.

  10. geoffrey@11

    ok bemused that’s not how it read at all –

    I was making a serious point, but tried to do it with a bit of humour.

    Really, if you seriously want people to read it, make it easy for them.

    Paragraphs are not an optional feature of written English.

  11. Geoffrey – Agree entirely. The right will protect Abbott until the last minute and then try to use Zorro as a trojan horse. The Australian people don’t see through that, they deserve eternal damnation.

  12. CTar1

    Some more stuff down the road from the Barbican that is to be dug up. Very interesting to learn what an “agitator” was back in the day. Had a soft spot for the Levellers.

    [Executed by firing squad in April 1649, Robert Lockyer was an activist in England’s first democratic political movement, the Levellers. Archaeological excavations due to start early next month at Liverpool Street in central London could locate his final resting place.

    He became a Leveller, and was elected as an ‘agitator’ – a representative of the rank and file soldiery.]

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/archaeology/news/could-crossrail-have-uncovered-the-last-resting-place-of-britains-leftwing-martyr-in-bedlam-burial-ground-under-liverpool-street-station-10032619.html

  13. CTar1

    Some more stuff down the road from the Barbican that is to be dug up. Very interesting to learn what an “agitator” was back in the day. Had a soft spot for the Levellers.

    [Executed by firing squad in April 1649, Robert Lockyer was an activist in England’s first democratic political movement, the Levellers. Archaeological excavations due to start early next month at Liverpool Street in central London could locate his final resting place.

    He became a Leveller, and was elected as an ‘agitator’ – a representative of the rank and file soldiery.]

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/archaeology/news/could-crossrail-have-uncovered-the-last-resting-place-of-britains-leftwing-martyr-in-bedlam-burial-ground-under-liverpool-street-station-10032619.html

  14. geoffrey

    Your comments were, indeed, thoughtful and welcome. However, only a slow reader who plods through each word would bother to attack your huge paragraph. It looked like stream-of-consciousness writing, but when separated into paras, it obviously wasn’t.

  15. Well, I read the slab version of Geoffrey’s comment and the paragraphed.

    It was a welcome, well written and interesting comment both times.

  16. poroti

    X-Rail digging has forced the CoL Museum to lease 3 warehouses already for the east-west part.

    The the north-south bit on next.

    I’m in wonder at the civil engineering aspects – The Shakespeare Tower is still standing despite having two railway tunnels dug under it since it was built.

  17. In his no-confidence speech Shorten significantly opened up a new line of attack against the libs, namely that they are undermining the middle class. This ties in with the emerging discussions globally concerning the widening gulf between the one percenters and the rest. To date this discussion has been getting a lot of traction with top-end economists (Picketty, Krugman etc) but now is filtering down through both the popular and social media.

    It’s a very strong wedge for the liberals.

  18. Rhwombat

    [If M4 carbines were used, someone in the NSW Police is going end up wearing it.]

    Is that because of the increased chance of ricochet injuries, as in the lady who died and the lady shot in her legs?

  19. [ Sticking to the latter so I can compare like with like, there have been four 57-43s in the past fortnight ]

    Which will almost HAVE to come back a bit towards them over the next month or so i reckon whatever they do. IF the polling was to be that extreme against them over another couple of cycles then they will melt down completely and do a panic budget that makes even less sense than the 2014 one.

  20. Do we have had the reset, the reshuffle, the scraping of the barnacles, the promise to be more consultative, the new communications chief … I am sure I have missed a few there there

    And the end result? things just get worse.

    Now they have decided today to keep the leader (for a while) I wonder what the Tories have in mind for their next trick.

  21. From the previous thread:

    poroti@1001

    Even News.com had a headline “Was that Bill Shorten’s best speech?”

    It’s the best I’ve heard from him. He was in great form.

    I liked the way (as someone else above said) that he jumped into Turnbull, getting in some licks before Turnbull becomes PM, and serving notice that it won’t be an easy ride.

    Chris Pyne did a good job of telling Shorten that he’d brought the wrong speech – but Bill just took that in his stride, again as above, from David Carson.

    Things are looking up, I was concerned whether Labor would do well if the LNP and Tony ever got its act together, and not looking forward to MT as PM, but I think Bill could give MT a few wounds to remember in the HOR.

  22. Diogenes@26

    Rhwombat

    If M4 carbines were used, someone in the NSW Police is going end up wearing it.


    Is that because of the increased chance of ricochet injuries, as in the lady who died and the lady shot in her legs?

    The 5.65mm ammunition of an M4 carbine has a muzzle velocity of 880m/s.

    Depending on the projectile weight, a 9mm Parabellum has a muzzle velocity of around 360m/s.

    Energy is proportional to the square of the velocity.

    At close range 9mm is more than adequate.

  23. Dio

    [s that because of the increased chance of ricochet injuries,]

    Yes. Hard military ammo will hit something hard and either shatter or bounce.

    9mm ‘soft’ will hit something and splatter.

  24. Given the state of the economy, Tony promising to bring down a “friendly” budget may just be moving in the opposite direction to what is needed, especially if his idea of “friendly” means tax cuts (which he has hinted at).

  25. Ctar1

    Over the summer break there were some docos on SBS I think about X-rail.

    Truly amazing stuff.

    If you give engineers enough money they can do anything.

    They key is of course finding worthwhile projects. In Australia we are fixated on roads.

  26. poroti

    [Salad days for archaeologists.]

    They must have found some really good Roman stuff – one of the warehouses has 3 shifts of 5 security guards i.e. 24 coverage.

  27. geoffrey

    Can’t speak for other people, but my vision isn’t the best and I have serious trouble tracking text in large blocks, to the point where I can’t read it, just looks like squirming noodles to me.

    I can assure you that frequent paragraph breaks are a big help with this problem.

    Thanks. 🙂

  28. ross

    [Truly amazing stuff.]

    Yep. The local discussion there always seems to come down to the quality of the rubber buffers on the train line so Barbican occupants don’t feel vibrations and rumbling noises.

  29. We should soon get a post from Kevin B saying :
    Morgan on average leans ALP by about 1.5 pts.
    Given that Kevin B messed up badly with his 2015 Qld Election analysis and Morgan predicted that the result was to close to call… any one with Kevin B’s recent form would take a long hard think before he started typing comments about Morgan.

  30. [ a “friendly” budget may just be moving in the opposite direction to what is needed, ]

    The issue will be, friendly to who??

    And, its seems like they are going to pursue their “intergenerational theft” theme. That really does limit how far they can go with spending / tax cut promises.

    Certainly in the leadup to the latest round of #leadersh$t there was a LOT in the press about how actually, we do have a revenue problem. If the Libs ignore that then a “friendly” budget could get attacked from ALL sides as a pretty crass attempt to buy

  31. oops.

    votes / improve polling and be seen as to obviously self serving.

    They are in a world of pain come budget time regardless of where they turn.

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