Morgan: 57.5-42.5 to Labor

Polling conducted over the past two weekends finds the Abbott government not unexpectedly going from very bad to worse.

I wouldn’t normally lead with a Morgan poll so soon after a Newspoll result, but today of course is a special occasion (for future generations who might happen to be reading this, Tony Abbott today beat off a spill motion by the unconvincing margin of 61 to 39). After conducting an unusual poll last time in which the field work period was extended and the surveying limited to a single weekend, this is back to the usual Roy Morgan practice of combining face-to-face and SMS polling from two weeks, with field work conducted only on Saturdays and Sundays, with a sample of around 3000 (2939 to be precise about it). So the poll was half conducted in the knowledge that a spill was imminent, and half not.

On the primary vote, there has been a straight two-point shift from the Coalition to Labor since the previous poll, which was conducted from January 23-27, with Australia Day and the Prince Philip knighthood having landed on January 26. This puts Labor on 41.5% and the Coalition on 35.5%, with the Greens steady on 12% and Palmer United down one to 2%. A slightly better flow of preferences for the Coalition blunts the impact a little on the headline respondent-allocated two-party figure, on which Labor’s lead is up from 56.5-43.5 to 57.5 to 42.5. The move is a little bigger on previous election preferences, from 55.5-44.5 to 57-43. Tomorrow’s Essential Research should complete the cycle of pre-spill opinion polling, and I’m well and truly back in my old routine of updating BludgerTrack overnight on Wednesday/Thursday.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research’s reputation for stability emerges unharmed with another 54-46 reading this week, with the Coalition up a point to 39%, Labor steady on 41%, the Greens up one to 10% and Palmer United steady on 3%. It’s a different story on the monthly reading of Tony Abbott’s leadership ratings, with approval down eight to 27% and disapproval up nine to 62%. However, Bill Shorten’s position has also sharply worsened, with approval down six to 33% and disapproval up five to 38%. Given this is nowhere reflected in other polling, one might surmise that Essential has hit bad samples for Labor over consecutive weeks. Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister is nonetheless out from 37-35 to 39-31.

Other questions find 59% approval for the government dropping its paid parental leave scheme versus 25% for disapprove; 59% support for same-sex marriage, up four since December, with 28% opposed, down four; 26% saying support for same-sex marriage might favourably influence vote choice, 19% saying it would do so unfavourably, and 48% saying it would make no difference; 44% favouring a negative response to government retention of personal data and information against 38% for a positive one; and a suite of questions on privatisation that do a fair bit to explain what happened to Campbell Newman.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,707 comments on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5 to Labor”

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  1. dedalus@25

    [In his no-confidence speech Shorten significantly opened up a new line of attack against the libs, namely that they are undermining the middle class. This ties in with the emerging discussions globally concerning the widening gulf between the one percenters and the rest. ]
    Agree with this.

    The budget is not simply unfair – it is both poor economics and a recipe for social dislocation.

  2. Abbott live on 7.30 according to promo, how does this sit with earlier tweet about hard questions.. someone leak the script?

  3. Diogenes Posted Monday, February 9, 2015 at 6:26 pm | 26

    Rhwombat

    If M4 carbines were used, someone in the NSW Police is going end up wearing it.

    Is that because of the increased chance of ricochet injuries, as in the lady who died and the lady shot in her legs?

    It’s not just the danger of ricochets. A high powered round is much more likely to go through a person, or object, with enough energy to penetrate someone behind.

  4. Paul, Kevin should type precisely that, because it’s correct. The Morgan poll to which you refer was SMS only, whereas it’s the face-to-face component that introduces the Labor bias. Not that the SMS polls are anything to write home about, as they did not perform well before the Victorian campaign.

    The Morgan Queensland poll was 1.9% low for the LNP, as well as being 0.5% low for Labor and 2% too high for the Greens. That actually isn’t that bad, but since the poll was conducted a fortnight out from the election, it’s very hard to say how much it means. So far as the primary vote is concerned, the last Galaxy poll absolutely nailed it, other than coming in a point too low for Palmer United.

  5. wtf John Hewson on The Project reckons Abbott deserves another chance and he believes he will succeed as he is determined. Really? What the heck are these people on

  6. In his no-confidence speech Shorten significantly opened up a new line of attack against the libs, namely that they are undermining the middle class. This ties in with the emerging discussions globally concerning the widening gulf between the one percenters and the rest.

    Current Abbott Govt attacking Howards “battlers”, his Mum and Dad voters?

  7. So the Libs have been on their latest slide since Oct 2014.

    Memory fail me. Was anything domestically significant happening then or was it just the peak after their Air Disaster overseas matters lifts from July to October?? The G20 debacle wasn’t till November. Shirtfront ??

  8. Laurie Oakes needs to remove his head from his fat backside – suffers from trousering the grubby Murdoch shilling for too long.

  9. Lenore

    [Abbott tried to define the question as, “Does the Liberal party want to descend into Labor-like chaos and dysfunction?” The answer is obvious. It already has. Less vitriolic to be sure, but still chaotic.

    Abbott emerged to deliver a statement to a television camera insisting that “we” – by which he meant the Liberal party – believed that when voters elected a prime minister they deserved to keep the prime minister until they changed their mind. Except 39 of his colleagues had just voted to show they did not believe that at all.

    In a speech to the National Press Club – yes, that was only a week ago! – Abbott tried to claim a new and clear agenda for 2015 to set his leadership to rights.

    But it wasn’t new, or it wasn’t finished, or it didn’t make sense. He kept talking about how the budget was deteriorating and the deficit was getting bigger, but then he claimed the “hard work” was done. His talking points were contradictory. They certainly did not inspire.

    He promised to be consultative and then made a promise to a backbencher about awarding the submarines contract without consulting his cabinet, or even some of his South Australian ministers.]
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/feb/09/tony-abbott-plaintive-plea-time-fails-convince

  10. AussieAchmed

    [undermining the middle class]
    Indeed. Particularly mentioning at the same time “the aspirations of Australians” . The “aspirationals” were up there with “Howard’s battlers” back in the day.

    Mind you I thought those so called “Aspirationals” sounded more like ‘Grasperationals’

  11. [wtf John Hewson on The Project reckons Abbott deserves another chance and he believes he will succeed as he is determined. Really? What the heck are these people on]

    The fix is in. Poor Tony really has learned this time and all will be different in the future. Since he’s such a trustworthy fellow, we’ll take his word for this, just as we always have.

    And I can’t wait for the hard-hitting Leigh Sales interview, having not seen enough of Abbott lately. And Leigh is guaranteed to ask the most hard-hitting questions ever and be sure to follow them up in the unlikely event that Tony doesn’t answer them.

  12. The obvious question in response to Abbott’s trite “good governance starts today” is well, what have you been doing for the last 17 months?

  13. [Oakes said Shorten’s speech “didn’t lay a glove on Abbott” and that Abbott held his own]
    Maybe not. But he certainly got the boot in!

  14. soft questions to Abbott. Oakes is now in a different reality – backing the coalition and has been doing so for quite a while. The 7.30 Report is soft they are not asking anything hard of him

  15. [Oakes said Shorten’s speech “didn’t lay a glove on Abbott” and that Abbott held his own]

    Did Oakes miss the point? It was Turnbull that Shorten was after and he scored a few solid hits and at one stage knocked Turnbull’s top hat from his head.

    Abbott is becoming a side show as he dies a slow death.

  16. [gloryconsequence
    Posted Monday, February 9, 2015 at 7:35 pm | PERMALINK
    Oakes said Shorten’s speech “didn’t lay a glove on Abbott” and that Abbott held his own]

    Oakes, deliberately or otherwise, misses the point. He is like most MSM writers, shock jocks and others who have virtually written off Abbott in the future. These people completely avoid questions of policy and actions that belong to the Liberal Party and their supporters as a whole.

    Shorten, on the other hand, is playing the longer game. He and Labor are preparing for the period post-Abbott where Turnbull is the most likely successor. Shorten is more likely to concentrate on Turnbull and the Liberals generally, rather than waste much energy going after ‘crippled’ Abbott. The Liberals and their supporters are doing a good job of dealing with the Abbott problem in any case.

  17. Abbott is just rambling from one topic to the next. He’s dull and just hopeless. He’s grasping and sounds desperate.
    “I absolutely accept” zzzzz.

  18. Adrian
    [The fix is in. Poor Tony really has learned this time and all will be different in the future. Since he’s such a trustworthy fellow, we’ll take his word for this, just as we always have.]

    You got that right!

    As for the bull frog Oakes, a self important wind bag whose insider knowledge has amounted to zip.

  19. Maybe tonight Leigh’s deference to the PM allowed him to look the total goose he is, I’m sure his colleagues would be reaching for the air sick bag.

  20. lizzie

    [Leigh is fighting hard]

    For a second there I thought Sales would go him. Somtimes you just can’t wade through their BS let alone open up the conversation, Cormann is a master. BTW your question earlier about what Mr + Mrs Cormanns breakfast conversation is about – I think I hear crickets.

  21. Abbott proved in the 730 interview that nothing has changed with him.

    It never was going to.

    Looks like the tories know they are going over the cliff with him.

    So be it.

  22. [The champagne corks were popping, but not in the Liberal Party room – the celebrations were taking place in the Labor offices. But even the Opposition Leader would have been wondering how long his run of good fortune will last. Should he go after Abbott or should he hold back in the hope of keeping him as Prime Minister right up to the election in 2016?]
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/tony-abbotts-survival-an-exquisite-dilemma-for-bill-shorten-20150209-139x5f.html

  23. [Samantha Maiden @samanthamaiden · 14m 14 minutes ago
    Leigh Sales exclaiming “who are you?” at the Prime Minister quite a 730 interview moment]

    Sales asked ABbott who he is?

  24. There is no chance Tony will let anything change, totally congenitally impossible for him to say I’m sorry I , that is I me no one else just me .. stuffed up

  25. dave

    [Looks like the tories know they are going over the cliff with him.]

    Yep, the cumulative philosphy is that hard right government is dead, well dying fast.

  26. This tweet sums it up

    “@RobCoco: .@leighsales: who is the real Tony Abbott?
    @TonyAbbottMHR: Blame Labor! Blame unions! Budget deficit! Carbon tax!
    #ABC730”

  27. The Lib powerbrokers would rather take all of this criticism, vitriol and internal muckraking, than have Turnbull leading them

    It appears if they had a choice between being in Opposition or having Turnbull lead them to victory, they’d rather be in Opposition.

    With all that’s said and done, something can be said for their principles.

  28. This “budget emergency” that the Tories constantly sprout is puerile BS. The problem with the budget is that it is in a structural deficit. Caused, in the main, by the “middle class welfare” of the Howard era.
    The Tory answer, of constantly attacking government expenditure will never solve that problem.
    Constantly attacking the most vulnerable as the way to return the budget to surplus will never work, as the budget will constantly trend into deficit. The only meaningful way to solve the problem with a structural deficit is to address revenue.
    Considering that the first thing that the tories did was to abolish taxes, there aint a snow flakes hope in hell that this Government will ever return a surplus, in real terms.

  29. BC@55: high velocity rounds in a closed space can ricochet several times and fragment – with a very high risk of rapidly lethal pericardial and thoracic vessel penetration by spinning fragments, such as the injury that killed Charlotte Dawson. That’s why combat personnel wear body armour. 9mm rounds rarely kill unless they hit the head or heart directly.

  30. Abbott now has a basic contradiction at the heart of his fiscal policy. The need for harsh cuts and austerity to fix the debt, and the small business tax cuts and other spending largesse they seem to keen to throw around. He has taken complaints about fairness from the voters and presumed they were selfish demands for special treatment.

    He will now spend money where it not needed, fail to cut where he should and fail to make any positive macro economic benefit for the country. He actually said in the sales’ interview that New Zealand was able to reduce spending by just eliminating new spending, but he doesn’t understand what that means. He will now go on and implement new spending and complain about the debt.

  31. [You said good government starts today.]

    Well that was a gimme, wasn’t it?

    Seems MPs are leaking that Abbott pleaded for 6 more months, despite reportedly telling Sales it didn’t happen.

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