Morgan: 57.5-42.5 to Labor

Polling conducted over the past two weekends finds the Abbott government not unexpectedly going from very bad to worse.

I wouldn’t normally lead with a Morgan poll so soon after a Newspoll result, but today of course is a special occasion (for future generations who might happen to be reading this, Tony Abbott today beat off a spill motion by the unconvincing margin of 61 to 39). After conducting an unusual poll last time in which the field work period was extended and the surveying limited to a single weekend, this is back to the usual Roy Morgan practice of combining face-to-face and SMS polling from two weeks, with field work conducted only on Saturdays and Sundays, with a sample of around 3000 (2939 to be precise about it). So the poll was half conducted in the knowledge that a spill was imminent, and half not.

On the primary vote, there has been a straight two-point shift from the Coalition to Labor since the previous poll, which was conducted from January 23-27, with Australia Day and the Prince Philip knighthood having landed on January 26. This puts Labor on 41.5% and the Coalition on 35.5%, with the Greens steady on 12% and Palmer United down one to 2%. A slightly better flow of preferences for the Coalition blunts the impact a little on the headline respondent-allocated two-party figure, on which Labor’s lead is up from 56.5-43.5 to 57.5 to 42.5. The move is a little bigger on previous election preferences, from 55.5-44.5 to 57-43. Tomorrow’s Essential Research should complete the cycle of pre-spill opinion polling, and I’m well and truly back in my old routine of updating BludgerTrack overnight on Wednesday/Thursday.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research’s reputation for stability emerges unharmed with another 54-46 reading this week, with the Coalition up a point to 39%, Labor steady on 41%, the Greens up one to 10% and Palmer United steady on 3%. It’s a different story on the monthly reading of Tony Abbott’s leadership ratings, with approval down eight to 27% and disapproval up nine to 62%. However, Bill Shorten’s position has also sharply worsened, with approval down six to 33% and disapproval up five to 38%. Given this is nowhere reflected in other polling, one might surmise that Essential has hit bad samples for Labor over consecutive weeks. Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister is nonetheless out from 37-35 to 39-31.

Other questions find 59% approval for the government dropping its paid parental leave scheme versus 25% for disapprove; 59% support for same-sex marriage, up four since December, with 28% opposed, down four; 26% saying support for same-sex marriage might favourably influence vote choice, 19% saying it would do so unfavourably, and 48% saying it would make no difference; 44% favouring a negative response to government retention of personal data and information against 38% for a positive one; and a suite of questions on privatisation that do a fair bit to explain what happened to Campbell Newman.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,707 comments on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 35
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  1. Morgan: 57.5:42.5 (ALP 41.5, GRN 13, LNP 35.5)
    Newspoll: 57:43 (ALP 41, GRN 12, LNP 35)
    GALAXY: 57:43 (ALP 43, GRN 11, LNP 36)

    WTF are we going to argue about now ?

  3. [Seems MPs are leaking that Abbott pleaded for 6 more months, despite reportedly telling Sales it didn’t happen.]

    Abbott put on his trademark lying demeanor when answering this question. Not looking at interviewer, jaw raised, quivering.

    He did a lot of quivering in that interview. The man is under intense pressure right now.

  5. [84
    Windhover

    Abbott should have been challenged by Sales on his claim that Labor left a $68 B deficit when fact check demonstrates the deficit increase was all thanks to Hockey]

    The deficit is certainly soaring under this Government. Last week Commonwealth Securities on issue increased by $1.9 billion. The sum is scheduled to increase by the same amount this week. If this rate of borrowing is sustained, additional Commonwealth borrowings appear likely to reach $80 billion this year, or about 5.0% of GDP and to easily exceed $100 billion in the following year.

    In the final year (September 2012-August 2013) of the previous Government, Commonwealth Securities on issue increased by $25.65 billion. In the first year of this Government borrowings increased by $61.5 billion, of which $8.8 billion was transferred to the RBA to increase its capital.

    This Government is borrowing at nearly triple the rate of the previous Government.

    There is a compelling case for structural repair of Commonwealth revenues – a case that this Government is ideologically incapable of prosecuting.

  6. [Sales also asked. You said good government starts today. What have you been doing all this time?]

    Another lie from Abbott.

    He and his gang repeatedly assured the Australian people that they were ready to govern at a heartbeat’s notice. They bamboozled the public with plebiscites and threats of no-confidence motions that they never intended to conduct (as evidenced by records of the official notice paper).

    They also claimed they were experienced ministers and administrators, grown-ups, and had literally hundreds of policies costed and ready to go. Anything that wasn’t covered by a new policy would default to whatever Howard policy applied to a particular situation.

    “Good government” was supposed to have been in their DNA.

    Abbott’s admission this afternoon that it was only going to start from tomorrow, and his pleading about governments getting better over time as they learn on the job was a complete repudiation of all his past utterances on the subject and clanger of monumental proportions.

    The man was, is and always will be a liar of the lowest order: greedy, petty and thuggish.

    No-one will believe his promises to suddenly “get religion” on collegiality, to cease the Captain’s Picks and to be consultative with all and sundry. Eventually he will cock up again, and I am hoping it will be sooner rather than later.

    There’s a country’s well-being at stake, after all.

  7. Depending on how Shorten intends to play the game, we may see Labor almost completely ignoring Abbott (as being irrelevant) and going for others including Turnbull.

  8. Phil Vee

    I sure you don’t need reminding but when Swan said a major problem for the budget was the decline in revenue Hockey just sneered and said the problem was labor waste.

    Well the Tories now admit the revenue is a problem but offer no explanation as to how they might fix it.

    they don’t even defend their own policy changes, instead turning every question into an attack on Labor. If higher education changes are good, defend them. If the medicare co payment Mark 25 is so necessary, defend it. If changing the Way pensions are indexed is necessary, defend it.

    But no, they just want to talk about the carbon tax and pink batts.

  9. 102

    Sales however, while asking Abbott about him continuing as leader until the next election, did not ask Abbott about bringing forward the next election so that he is still the leader. That, and variations thereof, seems to be the big question that the media are not asking Abbott or themselves.

  10. Foot in Mouth disease is incurable, in Abbotts case I think it’s terminal.

    How well this new, good government is traveling could be judged from the number of embarrassing leaks from tomorrows party meeting.

  11. Labor will win office very easily next time if they make just one promise – to undertake budgetary repair without attacking social spending. This would be a promise to redress the imbalances caused by Liberal rule.

  15. “@GrogsGamut: Sure say the 13-14 Budget was wrong (so was the 14-15 by the way), but by the election, both sides were working off a $30bn deficit”

  16. I’ll repost what I said from the previous thread at about the end of the 7.30 report.

    [*sigh*

    Abbott said WTTE that we shouldn’t get rid of a government that is not perfect but was at least “fair dinkum”.

    I could say the same about the Rudd and Gillard governments.]

  17. [101
    bug1

    Morgan: 57.5:42.5 (ALP 41.5, GRN 13, LNP 35.5)
    Newspoll: 57:43 (ALP 41, GRN 12, LNP 35)
    GALAXY: 57:43 (ALP 43, GRN 11, LNP 36)

    WTF are we going to argue about now ?]

    Can these numbers actually get any worse for the LNP? Will we see a 60/40 split?

  18. Also, funny that a few months back, Roy Morgan would show this kind of TPP swing and was considered an outlier. Don’t think it’ll be seen as such now.

  19. [112
    mikehilliard

    The man is under intense pressure right now]

    Abbott is also a drinker – maybe a binge drinker. This cannot help his state of mind.

  20. I have to admit Abbott is tough and resilient. After a day that would have been emotionally draining he turns up and was able to get through an interview. This is how he will appeal to the electorate ‘I’m tough’ I am able to get through tough situations etc. This appeals to the cashed up bogans…hate his policies and total ignorance but that is what appeals to a lot of the electorate the base element and how we get there. Scare’s me

  21. [Abbott is also a drinker – maybe a binge drinker.]

    A “grog monster” to quote the man himself.

    In short (as has been said many times before) temperamentally unsuitable for the role of Prime Minister.

  22. I was looking at the historical graph on Roy Morgan and it seems that there was a poll in june last year that put the ALP at 60.5 against 39.5 for the LNP. What was that about?

  24. [WTF are we going to argue about now ?]

    These topics are generally good for a barney
    Rudd v Gillard

    The immorality of ALP refugee policy

    Israel v Palestine

    ALP v greens

    ALP Right being closer to Libs than they are to the party of Gough

    🙂

  27. Also, let’s not forget the evening where he got pissed in the PH dining room and then went back to his office to sleep off his pissed-ness, thus missing crucial votes on the stimulus packaage

  30. Qanda
    Alan Jones – Influential Radio Broadcaster
    Jamie Briggs – Assistant Minister for Infrastructure and Regional Development
    Chris Bowen – Shadow Treasurer
    Heather Ridout – Businesswoman & RBA board member
    Corinne Grant – Comedian & Writer

  31. Sustainable future@124

    WTF are we going to argue about now ?


    These topics are generally good for a barney
    Rudd v Gillard

    The immorality of ALP refugee policy

    Israel v Palestine

    ALP v greens

    ALP Right being closer to Libs than they are to the party of Gough

    You forgot Greece!

  33. fess

    [ She was much more argumentative than Kerry.

    That’s one of the reasons I don’t like watching her interviews.]

    I was cringeing as I was watching her argue and berate Abbott. God knows he deserves it but I don’t think you should treat someone like that who has agreed to come on your show. From what I’ve read here, she did it all often to Labor people as well.

    She acts angry and frustrated and unprofessional.

  35. [106
    Bushfire Bill

    …good government starts today….]

    This is Abbott’s version of “I’d like you to meet the real Julia”…as if the previous persona was nothing more than a construct. It is also an admission that the first half of this term has been an abject failure.

  36. The point of Laurie Oakes’ “hardly laid a glove comment” turns out to have been that Shorten did not in fact attempt to do so, because his target was Turnbull. No judgement was made on the quality of the performance one way or the other.

  37. rosmcg at 108
    Yes you are right but not only do they have no idea how to do something about revenue shortfalls they are now compelled to make the shortfalls worse. Abbott has to give money away now to make himself less unpopular. He said in the Sales’ interview that Howard was unpopular but came back and TA remembers How he did it.

    The only positive I can get out of it all, is briefly’s idea that the Libs are now creating chronic imbalances in the Budget that should be easy to fix later on. In the meantime the govt goes down the chute and business has another excuse to sit on their money and complain.

  39. victoria

    Fixed it for ya.
    [Qanda
    Alan Jones – Comedian & Writer
    Jamie Briggs – Comedian & Writer
    Chris Bowen – Shadow Treasurer
    Heather Ridout – Comedian & Writer
    Corinne Grant – Comedian & Writer]

  42. [
    Diogenes
    Posted Monday, February 9, 2015 at 9:04 pm | Permalink

    fess

    She was much more argumentative than Kerry.

    That’s one of the reasons I don’t like watching her interviews.

    I was cringeing as I was watching her argue and berate Abbott. God knows he deserves it but I don’t think you should treat someone like that who has agreed to come on your show. From what I’ve read here, she did it all often to Labor people as well.

    She acts angry and frustrated and unprofessional.
    ]
    Agreed; she should not have behaved as she to Gillard and nor should she so it to Abbott. Both deserved more respect.

  43. People have made the point that the ‘good government starts now’ accepts that the last -7 months have been something other than good government. It’s a fair one. Given that in January Abbott was saying there was plenty to be proud of in 2014, one obvious question is what things he was hitherto proud of that deserve to be overturned.

    Another way of looking at it is to wonder why good government should start today, or tomorrow or ever. If it was good enough for 17 months to base governance on beating up the disadvantaged, brutalising asylum seekers, attacking climate programs, saying coal is good for humanity dismantling Medicare, trashing the NBN then why change?

    It is only the sales job that’s at fault after all.

  45. Reading the Leigh Sales interview transcript, it seems Abbott has learned by rote about 100 phrases and when ever he is asked a question he uses one or two of these phrases.

    There was not one answer he gave that i haven’t heard before.

  46. citizen
    [Depending on how Shorten intends to play the game, we may see Labor almost completely ignoring Abbott (as being irrelevant) and going for others including Turnbull.]
    I think now is the time to drag the debate to where Labor want it and convince people they have the solutions.

    Abbott will have something to sink his teeth into, but from a position of weakness.

  47. Dio is correct when he says that Sales is angry frustrated and unprofessional. The reason Abbott went on her program tonight was that he wanted her to be like that so he could respond with his trademark toughness. He wasn’t being brave, he was hoping for a fight and the more she kept the conversation in the “you’re a dead man” area the more he liked it.

    Sales fails basic interviewing standards. elevating the temperature benefits the guest not the questioner. She should sit back , listen and pick at what he says. And not be afraid of silences; they are her friend and Abbott’s enemy.

  50. [I think now is the time to drag the debate to where Labor want it and convince people they have the solutions.]
    It is time to explain to the Australian public that if we want to close the deficit and start repaying debt we will have to increase taxes as well as reforming some services.

    If the public think we can reduce the deficit simply by cutting services they should be encouraged to re-elect the Abbott government.

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