Morgan: 57.5-42.5 to Labor

Polling conducted over the past two weekends finds the Abbott government not unexpectedly going from very bad to worse.

I wouldn’t normally lead with a Morgan poll so soon after a Newspoll result, but today of course is a special occasion (for future generations who might happen to be reading this, Tony Abbott today beat off a spill motion by the unconvincing margin of 61 to 39). After conducting an unusual poll last time in which the field work period was extended and the surveying limited to a single weekend, this is back to the usual Roy Morgan practice of combining face-to-face and SMS polling from two weeks, with field work conducted only on Saturdays and Sundays, with a sample of around 3000 (2939 to be precise about it). So the poll was half conducted in the knowledge that a spill was imminent, and half not.

On the primary vote, there has been a straight two-point shift from the Coalition to Labor since the previous poll, which was conducted from January 23-27, with Australia Day and the Prince Philip knighthood having landed on January 26. This puts Labor on 41.5% and the Coalition on 35.5%, with the Greens steady on 12% and Palmer United down one to 2%. A slightly better flow of preferences for the Coalition blunts the impact a little on the headline respondent-allocated two-party figure, on which Labor’s lead is up from 56.5-43.5 to 57.5 to 42.5. The move is a little bigger on previous election preferences, from 55.5-44.5 to 57-43. Tomorrow’s Essential Research should complete the cycle of pre-spill opinion polling, and I’m well and truly back in my old routine of updating BludgerTrack overnight on Wednesday/Thursday.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research’s reputation for stability emerges unharmed with another 54-46 reading this week, with the Coalition up a point to 39%, Labor steady on 41%, the Greens up one to 10% and Palmer United steady on 3%. It’s a different story on the monthly reading of Tony Abbott’s leadership ratings, with approval down eight to 27% and disapproval up nine to 62%. However, Bill Shorten’s position has also sharply worsened, with approval down six to 33% and disapproval up five to 38%. Given this is nowhere reflected in other polling, one might surmise that Essential has hit bad samples for Labor over consecutive weeks. Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister is nonetheless out from 37-35 to 39-31.

Other questions find 59% approval for the government dropping its paid parental leave scheme versus 25% for disapprove; 59% support for same-sex marriage, up four since December, with 28% opposed, down four; 26% saying support for same-sex marriage might favourably influence vote choice, 19% saying it would do so unfavourably, and 48% saying it would make no difference; 44% favouring a negative response to government retention of personal data and information against 38% for a positive one; and a suite of questions on privatisation that do a fair bit to explain what happened to Campbell Newman.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,707 comments on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 4 of 35
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  3. From Peter Reith tonight..
    “There were lots of MPs walking with Tony Abbott into the party room at 9am as a symbol of solidarity, but there seemed to be fewer MPs with him when he walked out.”
    On Julie Bishop
    “You don’t get to be the managing partner in a top firm like Clayton Utz, as was the case with Bishop, unless you are good at managing people”
    On Turnbull
    “Turnbull also has real strengths. He is strong intellectually, he is well respected, he knows about business from his own success in business, and he has done an excellent job in his communications portfolio”

    Looks like it’s good night Tony

  4. [Reading the Leigh Sales interview transcript, it seems Abbott has learned by rote about 100 phrases and when ever he is asked a question he uses one or two of these phrases.]

    And if he’s really stuck or doesn’t want to answer there’s that old phrase again “I’ll let the Australian people judge that”..

  6. if the public think we can reduce the deficit simply by cutting services they should be encouraged to re-elect the Abbott government.

    The deficit will never be reduced by simply cutting services.
    It’s a nonsense to think that it will ever work. Those that suggest that cutting services are the only way to reduce the budget deficit are conning us.

  7. Have a tissue Mod Lib. The guy who is borrowing tens of billions of dollars of our money to build something that will be scrapped by 2020, well he didn’t win.

  8. [Libertarian Unionist
    Posted Monday, February 9, 2015 at 9:09 pm | Permalink

    Did someone mention Greece?]

    I find it absolutely amazing that an academic can ignore 300 billion euros worth of dodged taxes over the past decade or so and can then spend a thousand words trying to cobble together an extremely complicated fiscal explanation of greece’s horrific position.

  11. Yesirre Bob

    But that’s the trouble Bob, the Tories backed up by the cheerleaders in the media told us all that was needed to get the budget back in the black was out the e adults in charge and cut Labor’s waste.

    Oh an did I mention pink batts, school halls, unions , the carbon tax …

    And I don’t doubt for a minute that come election time next year the same people will be spruiking the same lines.

    Will people fall for it again? That’s the multi billion dollar question.

  12. [“I think now is the time to drag the debate to where Labor want it and convince people they have the solutions.”]

    If Labor attempt this, then Bill Shorten will join John Hewson as another opposition leader who lost an unloseable election.

    The opposition’s job isn’t to present alternate “solutions”. Its job is to oppose and try to convince voters that the current government deserves to be kicked out. Its second task is to appear as “safe” and unthreatening as possible.

    Once the ALP are actually in government, and have the benefit of incumbency, then they can come up with solutions.

  13. Red Kerry did the research. When Abbott came on with claims, Red could contradict him by quoting Abbott himself, or citing some other form of hypocrisy or incompetence.

    Leigh just argues and gets into a street fight instead of using good research and intelligence to confound Abbott.

    Street fighting suits Abbott – that’s all he knows.

    Tom.

  14. [cud chewer
    Posted Monday, February 9, 2015 at 9:45 pm | PERMALINK
    Have a tissue Mod Lib. The guy who is borrowing tens of billions of dollars of our money to build something that will be scrapped by 2020, well he didn’t win.]

    …..ahem…..and you want us to borrow a hundred billion dollars instead?

  15. [Raaraa
    ….Is Alan Jones actually suggesting rich people like him should pay more on medical?]

    Yes, he is suggesting copayments.

  16. Raaraa
    No, Jones is suggesting everyone pays heaps more while he gets a rebate for paying his own private health insurance.

  17. Mod Lib, roughly 45B versus roughly 56B by the esteemed gentleman’s own made up set of numbers.

    One buys a network that will last 50 years.

    One buys a network that gets scrapped in 5.

  20. ..ahem…..and you want us to borrow a hundred billion dollars instead?

    with interest rates at circa 2.5% why wouldn’t you issue bonds as a means to fund infrustructure ?

  24. Listening to Jamie Briggs interrupting Chris Bowen (who did not interrupt Briggs) rudeness must be in the DNA of the Liberals.

  28. Regarding Greece, you have to admire their ingenuity in avoiding a due debt. If only they applied it to collecting their taxes, they would balance their budget in no time!

    The Germans never paid back what they took in the war, and the Greek estimate of what it was worth today was about 11 billion euro. Substantial. Of course, Greece owes over 200 billion euro, so what the Germans owe Greece after WWII (and that debt was officially wiped out before Greece joined the EU and started getting billions per year in economic subsidies) is less than 5% of what the Greeks owe the Germans. A six month holiday on Greek interest payments would cancel the German debt to Greece entirely. The Greeks would atill owe more than their entire GDP.

    I areee that the ECB austerity policy is stupid and has been a disaster for Greece and the EU. But the Syriza argument about the WWII debt cancelling the current Greek debt is rubbish both legally and mathematically. Sometimes both sides in a dispute are wrong. Greece should default on its debts (it will never repay them) and Greece should be booted from the euro and the EU. I feel sorry for young Greeks without a job. But not for their elders. It is not just the 1%. The greek business sector, public sector and ordinary workers who were self employed all ripped the system off, and all share the blame, far more than any current day German is guilty over what their grandparents did in WWII.

  29. [TPOF
    Posted Monday, February 9, 2015 at 9:59 pm | PERMALINK
    Listening to Jamie Briggs interrupting Chris Bowen (who did not interrupt Briggs) rudeness must be in the DNA of the Liberals.]

    ….ah……yes he did……

  34. Jones said Libs ran $300b in surplus and Labor ran $300b in deficits. Isn’t that a balance over time? He also said Costello gave out huge tax cuts which is true and one reason there were deficits after Costello did that.

    What he is talking now is the regressive GST is actually a progressive tax. That’s the sort of crap he goes on with.

  35. citizen@107

    Depending on how Shorten intends to play the game, we may see Labor almost completely ignoring Abbott (as being irrelevant) and going for others including Turnbull.

    I think the game has been the same for a while. Without some black swan game changer, the conservatives cannot win the next election with Abbott. Therefore, don’t attack Abbott as a person but link him to the Liberal brand. Make sure the Liberal brand is shredded along with Abbott.

    The Libs are doing this quite well at the moment.

  37. [Phil Vee
    Posted Monday, February 9, 2015 at 10:04 pm | PERMALINK
    Jones said Libs ran $300b in surplus and Labor ran $300b in deficits.]

    Oh I see, the ALP splash money around to be popular and the LNP do the responsible thing for the country and pay it off and get punished.

    The ALP is the dad who takes the kids on the weekend and gives them KFC
    The LNP is the mum who thinks about the kids long term best interests and tells them: No

  38. [151
    Happiness

    Did anything interesting happen today?]

    A minor skirmish occurred in the Liberal Party between the dominant rightists and the still-as-yet disorganised, leaderless and relatively ineffectual reformist faction.

    The dominant group won a pyrrhic victory.

  45. @164:
    No. We want to use Oz’s current credit to undercut the vulture capitalists and rent seekers (like those who own the LNP) to capitalise real infrastructure that will not only decimate Rupert & Turnbull’s business model, but provide the basis for our children’s future.

    Adequately taxing the greedy bastards who farm capital is the only way to do it. It’s called social investment, and it’s why none of the Randroid Rupertariat ever let comment about the Scandinavian countries that outperform us, Canada, the UK & USA get into print. Toady is a perfect avatar for your intellectual bankruptcy.

  46. Mod Lib,

    You don’t do your own credibility any good by dragging in discredited and out of date numbers such as that. Even Turnbull’s own hired stooge, Bill Morrow, disowned that number under questioning.

  49. [The ALP is the dad who takes the kids on the weekend and gives them KFC
    The LNP is the mum who thinks about the kids long term best interests and tells them: No]
    LOL! WTF?

  50. [TPOF
    Posted Monday, February 9, 2015 at 10:06 pm | PERMALINK
    Hap @ 179

    No he didn’t. ]

    Go back to the view and have a look. Bowen was interrupting and Jones used the line that Bowen had used on him for a laugh (Jones to Bowen: “This isn’t morning radio, others get a go” at saying something).

    You guys see the world through very biased glasses. The LNP guy interrupts, the ALP guy doesn’t……the ALP introducing HECS is fine, the LNP slightly increasing the proportion of HECS against the total cost is the end of the world and an attack on education……the ALP cutting single parent pensions is responsible economic management…..the LNP cutting the rate of increase in pensions is the end of civilisation as we know it…….booo boo boo…

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