10.09pm. All seats on my watch list have three booths outstanding, so maybe that represents consistent blank spaces for things that won’t be counted tonight.
10.04pm. Another booth in from Whitsunday and the LNP moves into the lead (bearing in mind that I’m talking about the booth-matched computer projection here, not the raw result), going from Labor 0.3% ahead to LNP 0.1% ahead.
9.54pm. Though I’m beginning to think these outstanding booths are perhaps things like that won’t be counted this evening.
9.45pm. Another booth from Mansfield, effectively no change, but the change there has been has been from a 0.1% Labor lead to a 0.1% LNP lead. Three booths outstanding.
9.40pm. Another booth in from Mount Ommaney, leaving three outstanding, but Labor’s lead is unchanged at 0.7%.
9.35pm. Then there’s Maryborough, which Labor will win if Chris Foley doesn’t finish ahead of them. With 27 of 30 booths, the primary votes are 29.6% for the LNP, 25.3% for Labor and 22.1% for Foley. Whether Foley closes the gap depends on preferences, which we won’t know about this evening. That includes 12.6% for Palmer United and 10.4% for others.
9.30pm. So here’s the seats I’ll be over like a rash from now on, namely Labor’s shortest path to 45 off its base of 42:
Ferny Grove. Labor leads by 0.9%, three booths outstanding.
Mansfield. 50.0-50.0, four booths outstanding.
Mount Ommaney. Labor leads by 0.7%, four booths outstanding.
Whitsunday. Labor leads by 0.3%, four booths outstanding.
9.26pm. Pumicestone has moved hard to Labor: lead now of 3.0%. Perhaps we’re seeing different dynamics in Caboolture and Bribie Island, with the count ping-ponging as booths from either end report.
9.18pm. Some of those Labor leads have slackened a bit: from a base of 41, they’re ahead by 0.9% in Ferny Grove, 0.1% in Mansfield, 0.7% in Mount Ommaney, 0.5% in Pumicestone and 0.3% in Whitsunday. It’s certain doable for a broad trend in late counting to wash that away.
8.55pm. I might be a little more cautious than Antony in describing 43 Labor seats as “definites”, given the number of amount of pre-polling and the evident late swing. Having said that, you’d rarely win much money backing my assessment over his.
8.49pm. That said, there are further seats which might go Labor: Mansfield, Maryborough, Pumicestone, Whitsunday, over and above the four that are their most likely pathway to a majority.
8.46pm. The ABC has reined Glass House back from LNP hold to LNP ahead. But my instinct would be that the LNP will end up winning anything where they’re ahead. The question is, are these 2% Labor leads in Ferny Grove, Mansfield, Mount Coot-tha and Mundingburra sticky enough to hold off a likely move back to the LNP in late counting.
8.41pm. I’ve still got Labor working off a base of 41, and I would rather be Labor than the LNP in Ferny Grove, Mansfield, Mount Coot-tha and Mundingburra.
8.38pm. ABC computer says Labor win in Mount Ommaney, but they’re only 1.0%. Not that it had ever been in my Labor total.
8.38pm. Mount Cooth-tha now reined back from Labor win to Labor ahead – a bit of a trend.
8.27pm. I’d been assuming Chris Foley was headed for third in Maryborough, but Palmer United preferences might push him ahead of Labor. So hard to see the LNP winning, but this could increase the cross-bench to four, and reduce Labor to 42.
8.26pm. I should add that given the late surge to Labor, you would expect late counting to be better for the LNP. So I’m leaning back towards a hung parliament.
8.23pm. Ferny Grove pegged back from Labor win to Labor gain. So it’s still a very live question whether it’s a hung parliament or a Labor majority. Wayne Swan graciously allowing for an LNP majority, but that’s hard to see. My count: Labor 43, LNP 37, cross-bench 3. In doubt: Ferny Grove, Mansfield, Maryborough, Pumicestone, Whitsunday.
8.18pm. So I’ve still got Labor on 44, with another four seats that could go either way.
8.16pm. Albert now being called for LNP.
8.09pm. Pumicestone has been downgraded from ALP gain to ALP ahead, so Labor back down to 44. So sorry if any champagne corks just popped/wrists got slashed.
8.05pm. The ABC computer is now calling Mundingburra for Labor, so I’ve now got Labor to 45. Not that late count reversals are unheard of, but there’s another four seats that are lineball – Albert, Mansfield, Maryborough, Mount Ommaney and Whitsunday. Plus Redlands, where the LNP is ahead but not home and hosed.
7.58pm. Things keep falling Labor’s way. Brisbane Central, Ferny Grove and Mount Coot-tha now called for Labor. Only Redlands goes the way of the LNP. Still in doubt: Albert, Mansfield, Maryborough, Mount Ommaney, Mundingburra, Whitsunday. Any one of them, and Labor wins.
7.54pm. Antony says 46 the most likely result. Need I remind you, 45 is a majority. But, of course, he advises caution.
7.52pm. I’d neglected to mention Maryborough. Chris Foley falling short, producing a Labor versus LNP contest in which Labor has its nose in front.
7.51pm. My calculations didn’t account for Springwood, a spectacular Labor gain. So adding in Mundingburra, that reads as 41 Labor, 36 LNP, cross-bench 3, nine in doubt.
7.49pm. One of those key seats, Mundingburra, is now being called by the ABC computer for Labor.
7.45pm. Or to put it another way, Labor on the cusp of the barest of majorities. If they fail, very likely a hung parliament. Nearly everything would have to go right for the LNP to get them to 45.
7.43pm. In sum: Labor 40, LNP 36, cross-bench 3, in doubt 10.
7.40pm. In doubt: Albert, Brisbane Central, Ferny Grove, Mansfield, Mount Coot-tha (another inner-city surprise), Mount Ommaney (big show for Labor if so), Mundingburra, Redlands, Whitsunday.
7.38pm. No sooner do I type than does Brisbane Central tick back to Labor ahead. Certainly not being called though.
7.36pm. Surprisingly close in Brisbane Central though. ABC computer says LNP with nose in front.
7.36pm. LNP at least looking better on the Gold Coast now. Albert and Broadwater in doubt, but Burleigh down as LNP retain.
7.35pm. No, nothing doing in Burdekin or Gaven. Both to go LNP. Same cross bench as last parliament.
7.33pm. Cross bench: Mount Isa, Dalrymple, Nicklin. But the ABC computer isn’t yet saying anything about Burdekin or Gaven. Will look into those.
7.28pm. Predictable Labor gains: Ashgrove, Brisbane Central, Bulimba, Cairns, Capalaba, Cook, Greenslopes, Ipswich, Ipswich West, Keppel, Logan, Lytton, Morayfield, Nudgee, Sandgate, Townsville, Waterford, Yeerongpilly. Less predictable: Barron River, Algester, Bundaberg, Kallangur, Mirani, Murrumba, Pine Rivers, Redlands, Stretton, Tooowoomba North.
7.25pm. Labor looks like winning Barron River, but LNP predicted to retain Mundingburra, so a mixed picture up north.
7.23pm. Just stepped out for an ABC News Radio appearance, come back and see the ABC computer is now projecting 42 seats for Labor, which is certainly minority government territory. Wayne Swan talking up Murrumba big time, so clearly a huge swing in that outer northern Brisbane sweet spot where so many seats stand to be won and lost.
7.13pm. Whitsunday perhaps a slight disappointment for Labor – ABC projecting LNP ahead.
7.12pm. More good news for Labor: Wayne Swan talking up Pine Rivers, Labor ahead in Burleigh, a few obvious gains like Yeerongpilly, Greenslopes (though somewhat modest swing there), Ipswich. Labor holds Redcliffe and wins Stretton, the latter being a strong result. The verdict: the LNP will struggle to keep a majority.
7.10pm. Townsville to Labor. Kallangur though is the most exciting result for Labor yet.
7.05pm. Cairns and Kallangur called for Labor, and so apparently are Gladstone and Mackay, which might otherwise have gone independent.
7.03pm. With talk of a 9% swing, and nothing yet locked down for Labor above that range, the results are still consistent with the LNP getting over the line – but I attach a very big zone of uncertainty to that observation. And clearly Newman has lost Ashgrove.
7.01pm. Huge swing in Toowoomba South – not winnable for Labor, but presumably stands them in good stead for Toowoomba North.
7.00pm. Labor ahead in Bundaberg, which is great news for them. Close in Pine Rivers, with big 13% LNP margin.
6.58pm. Newman gone in Ashgrove, if what I just caught on the screen is any guide. More calls from the ABC computer: Labor to gain Ipswich West, Lytton, Capalaba, Stafford as well as the aforementioned Mirani. Shane Knuth to hold Dalrymple for the KAP.
6.52pm. First booth from Bulimba has a modest but sufficient swing to Labor. This seat swung relatively mildly in 2012, so it stands to reason the swing this time might be below par as well. Labor on track to win Nudgee – no surprise there.
6.50pm. ABC computer now has enough results in from Mirani to say something about it, which is “ALP ahead”.
6.49pm. Antony still grappling with tiny early results.
6.40pm. The very early result in Lockyer looked vaguely interesting for Pauline Hanson, though lack of preferences will surely thwart her.
6.38pm. Over 5% counted in Mirani, on the primary vote least. The 2PP swing is 12.2%, just enough to deliver the seat to Labor, but that’s only from about 600 votes, the 2PP count being some distant behind the primary.
6.35pm. “All over the shop outside of urban areas”, says Possum, who has his act together sooner than I do. “Big indie, KAP and PUP votes in some places, smashing the LNP primary”.
6.33pm. I’m not telling you anything here you wouldn’t already know, but for the record, Leroy Lynch relates the exit polling in comment. Usual story for the Galaxy state poll: it would only be of use if we knew what seats, and what the swing was. But clearly Newman is gone in Ashgrove, and the whole show looks like being worse than expected for the LNP.
6.26pm. So there are exit polls, and they show frankly astounding result for Labor. Perhaps this means the Ashgrove debacle has driven late-deciders to Labor in their droves. I suspect there is at least an element of that. But exit polls generally target particular electorates, and are difficult to read if you don’t know which ones or how they’ve gone about it.
6.25pm. Otherwise, it’s the usual early count story of tiny booths coming in from rural electorates.
6.23pm. I’ll say this much: Ben Hopper doesn’t look like he’s going to do much in Condamine, so mark that one down for the LNP.
6.15pm. Polls closed 15 minutes ago. I’ve been distracted for the past hour or so, but I understand the exit polls were interesting. More on that shortly. I see a booth from Warrego is in, but there’ll be nothing worth discussing for at least half an hour.
😀 Congratulations True Believers! 😀
Well done Qld Labor. Fantastic Result!
It is a possibly a good sign that with about another 10 years of elections, the ALP may get the message that the people want a mixed economy with social and environmental values, as well as corporate profit.
It would be dangerous to hold ones breathe waiting.
In my area, Costa, a NSW Labor Minster….. Closed our rail, took away public foreshore land for “corporation”, removing public access for corporate profit.
I know NSW Labor is the party of Obeid, McDonald etc, but no one in northern NSW thinks Labor is in anyway progressive.
I wonder if Abbott’s heard of the term Lame Duck.
Here’s a defamation case out of the election campaign which might have some legs.
@Richard Koser 1032
[Nichols sounded pretty smooth – brain switched off, mouth on auto – until he realised he could end up as LOTO. Then his attitude hardened. “Terrible for Campbell, bad for the LNP” good for me as long as we hold 45 ohshit.]
I imagine he bailed from the ABC panel so that he could go somewhere private and weep.
This is quite an amazing result. So many LNP seats on margins of 20%+ from 2012 that are now marginal. Just confirms what a rogue result 2012 was, and that 2015 is a re-alignment.
Gecko @ 971
[Swan on LIbs…. “Its like they don’t like the community that they govern…
GOLD]
If you think about the comments from so many of the losing LNP members (and an extraordinary screech that my wife got from a friend who is a rusted on LNP voter), I think Swan has got it spot on. All this stuff about selling it better treats the community as mug customers. And then abusing the voters for not realising what’s good for them! And then wondering why they are being rejected in droves.
And they still don’t get it (except maybe Mike Baird).
Greatest result tonight:
Pauline Hanson fails YET AGAIN in her attempt to win an election in her own right (she won in 1996 only because she still had Lib next to her name on the ballot as her disendorsement happened too late to fix the printing).
Damn
Try this address for the defamation article. You won’t see it reported by the Courier Mail
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-state-election-2015/queensland-election-2015-etu-launches-defamation-action-over-claim-bikies-funding-labor-unions-20150131-132tmz.html
Tragic news
[BREAKING @Kieran_Gilbert just said on @SkyNewsAust that he had received a text from a Federal Minister: “Abbott is finished.” #auspol]
ross @ 1044
[Swannie deserves a beer or three. And a medal.
Giving up your time on a night like this when there is celebrating to be done shows great commitment to the cause.]
What could be better than gloating on TV in public and saying some very choice things about unions and fairness that should have been said years ago?
This is a great result for anyone other than the far Right. Newman and Abbott will not be tolerated by the public.
This is what happens when you listen to the IPA, Bolts and Devines of the world.
I don’t think Tony is gonna make it to Valentines day 🙁
Not fair really. He was just starting to hit his stride and finally do something useful for the nation by destroying Liberal governments everywhere.
what a wonderful night. walk out of ANZ stadium, having watched the socceroos win, to see LNP are gone, and I’ve won a small fortune backing Labor.
hope everyone had fun. going to sit up and watch Antony Green with a beer for a few hours
Just getting around to watching Newman’s concession speech now. Its a surprisingly gracious and humble performance, IMO.
[What could be better than gloating on TV in public and saying some very choice things about unions and fairness that should have been said years ago?]
Swanny was bascially given the opportunity to say all the things that he would have said if he were LOTO now. Good on him. He looked happy.
[Just getting around to watching Newman’s concession speech now. Its a surprisingly gracious and humble performance, IMO.]
He’s had months to prepare it.
[Not fair really. He was just starting to hit his stride and finally do something useful for the nation by destroying Liberal governments everywhere.]
Thank you for the best laugh of the night 😀
Time for PBers to start praising Abbott next time they are polled?
Listening to the call of the call of the board on 24. Anthony Greene was commenting on the very high flow of preferences from Greens to ALP in one seat of 80%.
Will be interesting to see what the preference flows are after all the counting is done. Looks like the smug ESJ and his “undercover” mates may have FAILED. Who’d a thunk that?? 🙂
What a fabulous result.
Swamprat
Your Liberal Party bullshit is becoming tedious
[swamprat 1052
It is a possibly a good sign that with about another 10 years of elections, the ALP may get the message that the people want a mixed economy with social and environmental values, as well as corporate profit.]
My impression is the ALP have a Keynesian economic view, which does see an important role for government.
Mark Mcgowan could learn how to run a campaign from Queensland ALP.
bemused:
” bemused:
” A man died when struck by lightning when leaving a polling booth this afternoon.
That’ll teach him to vote LNP!”
About what is expected from a smartarsed, never-was clown.”
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/lightning-strike-kills-man-injures-family-on-gold-coast-20150131-132ta8.html
There it is again, right there.
[Just getting around to watching Newman’s concession speech now. Its a surprisingly gracious and humble performance, IMO.]
Twas indeed.
[Not fair really. He was just starting to hit his stride and finally do something useful for the nation by destroying Liberal governments everywhere.]
But after NSW in two months there aren’t any state elections left!
Newman has the advantage of walking away. It’s easier to gracious when you no longer have skin in the game.
I dont understand mount ommaney.
It went from one moment being 50.7 in favour of Labor to 50.9 in favour of the LNP.
Something is not right.
I wonder if the LNP will still want to fund Mr Newman’s defamation action against Mr Jones – throwing good money after bad, surely – and whether the incoming government will want to fund the similar litigation launched by a public servant.
It will also be interesting to see what happens in the case of the man with the “I’m with stupid” T-shirt: some police should be feeling pretty stupid about that themselves.
[Just getting around to watching Newman’s concession speech now. Its a surprisingly gracious and humble performance, IMO.]
Howard’s wasn’t bad either.
Must be something about losing your seat as well as the election.
Roger Miller
Too true. He might not have been so chipper had he been facing an angry party room one day next week
Also shows the impotence of Murdoch tabloids, a lesson Labor needs to learn. The old paradigm has forever changed.
Seat run concluded on the ABC, I followed along and tallied up as follows:
43 ALP
40 LNP
2 KAP
1 IND
3 Undecided (1 LIB-leaning [Mansfield], 1 LAB-leaning [Marlborough], 1 truly too close to call [Whitsunday] — all according to Antony)
So. Labor gets a majority if they get Whitsunday, barring any surprises in other seats in late counting.
[But after NSW in two months there aren’t any state elections left!]
Oh surely we could get on more election after NSW out of him? Please?
president of the solipsist society @1084
mount ommaney?
Unitary State, Antony gave it to the LNP—16.5% swing required of which the ALP only managed 15.6%, as I recall.
president of the solipsist society @1084
Labor needs to win both Maryborough and Whitsunday to get to 45 seats and a majority government. Maryborough is complicated by a competitive independent who may move into second place.
[Also shows the impotence of Murdoch tabloids, a lesson Labor needs to learn. The old paradigm has forever changed.]
I’d say the lesson is that Murdoch can still hurt a Labor government badly if enough people have forgotten why they voted the Libs out.
But Murdoch can’t help a Lib government once people get a taste of them and remember why they never really wanted them.
[Unitary State
Posted Sunday, February 1, 2015 at 12:27 am | Permalink
I dont understand mount ommaney.
It went from one moment being 50.7 in favour of Labor to 50.9 in favour of the LNP.
Something is not right.]
I’d say the pre poll votes were added to the count . These 3745 votes went 61% to the LNP on TPP with only 101 exhausted
Marlborough = Maryborough
Didn’t peter wellington support Labor in 98?
surely he will do the same again
Didn’t peter wellington support Labor in 98?
surely he will do the same again
Just back from the football (decent game). If labor does need an independent or two, which way are they likely to break? Who would Katter support?
the abc computer has labor back at 44 with the lap on 39.
its a correction.
Jimmy Doyle, you’re quite right; however, Antony turned up a preference count during the seat run which he seemed to not have seen before—he was quite surprised—and apparently its results indicated an ALP victory (on a 2PP of 52.5%, if I recall). However, things could well be complicated by late counting.
Seems like a good result for Palaszczuk.
I started off today thinking LNP will be leading a minority government without Newman, but it seems now that ALP will be leading a minority government, with a slim chance of a small majority.
Great result, since I prefer minority governments, but I’d hate to see a media beat-up yet again against “hung parliaments”. I’m willing to wager that they’ll be quiet if it was the LNP leading one.
I hope this might bring about some electoral reforms.
Sorry, I checked if there were any more state elections coming and they’re aren’t. 🙁
We had Tas, SA, Vic last year and Qld and NSW this year.
The WA term goes from March 2013 to March 2017 — so maybe Barnett escaped having to campaign during an Abbott federal government.
ACT and NT go in mid-late 2016.
What a fantastic result for Anna Palaszczuk and her team. A great effort, and a sincere but clean campaign on her part.
Queensland – perfect one day, deloused again the next. Farewell Campbell.
This will be a good election to win. The Qld economy is on the ropes afte the collapse in coal exports. Some government spending will do it good. At the same time, Labor has not made too many promises to regain government, so expectations are manageable.
If the parliament is hung, Labor should offer Peter Wellington a spot as AG. He was a very good lawyer before parliament, and few could be relied on more to clean up the mess that is judicial appointments and restore the Fitzgerald reforms, which were dear to his heart. One of the Katters could be offered speaker too.
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN @1094
There is no doubt labor will win 44 at a bare minimum.
In this case there would to katter party mps and 1 independent: peter wellington.
Peter wellington supported labor in 98, so he probably would do the same again now.