10.09pm. All seats on my watch list have three booths outstanding, so maybe that represents consistent blank spaces for things that won’t be counted tonight.
10.04pm. Another booth in from Whitsunday and the LNP moves into the lead (bearing in mind that I’m talking about the booth-matched computer projection here, not the raw result), going from Labor 0.3% ahead to LNP 0.1% ahead.
9.54pm. Though I’m beginning to think these outstanding booths are perhaps things like that won’t be counted this evening.
9.45pm. Another booth from Mansfield, effectively no change, but the change there has been has been from a 0.1% Labor lead to a 0.1% LNP lead. Three booths outstanding.
9.40pm. Another booth in from Mount Ommaney, leaving three outstanding, but Labor’s lead is unchanged at 0.7%.
9.35pm. Then there’s Maryborough, which Labor will win if Chris Foley doesn’t finish ahead of them. With 27 of 30 booths, the primary votes are 29.6% for the LNP, 25.3% for Labor and 22.1% for Foley. Whether Foley closes the gap depends on preferences, which we won’t know about this evening. That includes 12.6% for Palmer United and 10.4% for others.
9.30pm. So here’s the seats I’ll be over like a rash from now on, namely Labor’s shortest path to 45 off its base of 42:
Ferny Grove. Labor leads by 0.9%, three booths outstanding.
Mansfield. 50.0-50.0, four booths outstanding.
Mount Ommaney. Labor leads by 0.7%, four booths outstanding.
Whitsunday. Labor leads by 0.3%, four booths outstanding.
9.26pm. Pumicestone has moved hard to Labor: lead now of 3.0%. Perhaps we’re seeing different dynamics in Caboolture and Bribie Island, with the count ping-ponging as booths from either end report.
9.18pm. Some of those Labor leads have slackened a bit: from a base of 41, they’re ahead by 0.9% in Ferny Grove, 0.1% in Mansfield, 0.7% in Mount Ommaney, 0.5% in Pumicestone and 0.3% in Whitsunday. It’s certain doable for a broad trend in late counting to wash that away.
8.55pm. I might be a little more cautious than Antony in describing 43 Labor seats as “definites”, given the number of amount of pre-polling and the evident late swing. Having said that, you’d rarely win much money backing my assessment over his.
8.49pm. That said, there are further seats which might go Labor: Mansfield, Maryborough, Pumicestone, Whitsunday, over and above the four that are their most likely pathway to a majority.
8.46pm. The ABC has reined Glass House back from LNP hold to LNP ahead. But my instinct would be that the LNP will end up winning anything where they’re ahead. The question is, are these 2% Labor leads in Ferny Grove, Mansfield, Mount Coot-tha and Mundingburra sticky enough to hold off a likely move back to the LNP in late counting.
8.41pm. I’ve still got Labor working off a base of 41, and I would rather be Labor than the LNP in Ferny Grove, Mansfield, Mount Coot-tha and Mundingburra.
8.38pm. ABC computer says Labor win in Mount Ommaney, but they’re only 1.0%. Not that it had ever been in my Labor total.
8.38pm. Mount Cooth-tha now reined back from Labor win to Labor ahead – a bit of a trend.
8.27pm. I’d been assuming Chris Foley was headed for third in Maryborough, but Palmer United preferences might push him ahead of Labor. So hard to see the LNP winning, but this could increase the cross-bench to four, and reduce Labor to 42.
8.26pm. I should add that given the late surge to Labor, you would expect late counting to be better for the LNP. So I’m leaning back towards a hung parliament.
8.23pm. Ferny Grove pegged back from Labor win to Labor gain. So it’s still a very live question whether it’s a hung parliament or a Labor majority. Wayne Swan graciously allowing for an LNP majority, but that’s hard to see. My count: Labor 43, LNP 37, cross-bench 3. In doubt: Ferny Grove, Mansfield, Maryborough, Pumicestone, Whitsunday.
8.18pm. So I’ve still got Labor on 44, with another four seats that could go either way.
8.16pm. Albert now being called for LNP.
8.09pm. Pumicestone has been downgraded from ALP gain to ALP ahead, so Labor back down to 44. So sorry if any champagne corks just popped/wrists got slashed.
8.05pm. The ABC computer is now calling Mundingburra for Labor, so I’ve now got Labor to 45. Not that late count reversals are unheard of, but there’s another four seats that are lineball – Albert, Mansfield, Maryborough, Mount Ommaney and Whitsunday. Plus Redlands, where the LNP is ahead but not home and hosed.
7.58pm. Things keep falling Labor’s way. Brisbane Central, Ferny Grove and Mount Coot-tha now called for Labor. Only Redlands goes the way of the LNP. Still in doubt: Albert, Mansfield, Maryborough, Mount Ommaney, Mundingburra, Whitsunday. Any one of them, and Labor wins.
7.54pm. Antony says 46 the most likely result. Need I remind you, 45 is a majority. But, of course, he advises caution.
7.52pm. I’d neglected to mention Maryborough. Chris Foley falling short, producing a Labor versus LNP contest in which Labor has its nose in front.
7.51pm. My calculations didn’t account for Springwood, a spectacular Labor gain. So adding in Mundingburra, that reads as 41 Labor, 36 LNP, cross-bench 3, nine in doubt.
7.49pm. One of those key seats, Mundingburra, is now being called by the ABC computer for Labor.
7.45pm. Or to put it another way, Labor on the cusp of the barest of majorities. If they fail, very likely a hung parliament. Nearly everything would have to go right for the LNP to get them to 45.
7.43pm. In sum: Labor 40, LNP 36, cross-bench 3, in doubt 10.
7.40pm. In doubt: Albert, Brisbane Central, Ferny Grove, Mansfield, Mount Coot-tha (another inner-city surprise), Mount Ommaney (big show for Labor if so), Mundingburra, Redlands, Whitsunday.
7.38pm. No sooner do I type than does Brisbane Central tick back to Labor ahead. Certainly not being called though.
7.36pm. Surprisingly close in Brisbane Central though. ABC computer says LNP with nose in front.
7.36pm. LNP at least looking better on the Gold Coast now. Albert and Broadwater in doubt, but Burleigh down as LNP retain.
7.35pm. No, nothing doing in Burdekin or Gaven. Both to go LNP. Same cross bench as last parliament.
7.33pm. Cross bench: Mount Isa, Dalrymple, Nicklin. But the ABC computer isn’t yet saying anything about Burdekin or Gaven. Will look into those.
7.28pm. Predictable Labor gains: Ashgrove, Brisbane Central, Bulimba, Cairns, Capalaba, Cook, Greenslopes, Ipswich, Ipswich West, Keppel, Logan, Lytton, Morayfield, Nudgee, Sandgate, Townsville, Waterford, Yeerongpilly. Less predictable: Barron River, Algester, Bundaberg, Kallangur, Mirani, Murrumba, Pine Rivers, Redlands, Stretton, Tooowoomba North.
7.25pm. Labor looks like winning Barron River, but LNP predicted to retain Mundingburra, so a mixed picture up north.
7.23pm. Just stepped out for an ABC News Radio appearance, come back and see the ABC computer is now projecting 42 seats for Labor, which is certainly minority government territory. Wayne Swan talking up Murrumba big time, so clearly a huge swing in that outer northern Brisbane sweet spot where so many seats stand to be won and lost.
7.13pm. Whitsunday perhaps a slight disappointment for Labor – ABC projecting LNP ahead.
7.12pm. More good news for Labor: Wayne Swan talking up Pine Rivers, Labor ahead in Burleigh, a few obvious gains like Yeerongpilly, Greenslopes (though somewhat modest swing there), Ipswich. Labor holds Redcliffe and wins Stretton, the latter being a strong result. The verdict: the LNP will struggle to keep a majority.
7.10pm. Townsville to Labor. Kallangur though is the most exciting result for Labor yet.
7.05pm. Cairns and Kallangur called for Labor, and so apparently are Gladstone and Mackay, which might otherwise have gone independent.
7.03pm. With talk of a 9% swing, and nothing yet locked down for Labor above that range, the results are still consistent with the LNP getting over the line – but I attach a very big zone of uncertainty to that observation. And clearly Newman has lost Ashgrove.
7.01pm. Huge swing in Toowoomba South – not winnable for Labor, but presumably stands them in good stead for Toowoomba North.
7.00pm. Labor ahead in Bundaberg, which is great news for them. Close in Pine Rivers, with big 13% LNP margin.
6.58pm. Newman gone in Ashgrove, if what I just caught on the screen is any guide. More calls from the ABC computer: Labor to gain Ipswich West, Lytton, Capalaba, Stafford as well as the aforementioned Mirani. Shane Knuth to hold Dalrymple for the KAP.
6.52pm. First booth from Bulimba has a modest but sufficient swing to Labor. This seat swung relatively mildly in 2012, so it stands to reason the swing this time might be below par as well. Labor on track to win Nudgee – no surprise there.
6.50pm. ABC computer now has enough results in from Mirani to say something about it, which is “ALP ahead”.
6.49pm. Antony still grappling with tiny early results.
6.40pm. The very early result in Lockyer looked vaguely interesting for Pauline Hanson, though lack of preferences will surely thwart her.
6.38pm. Over 5% counted in Mirani, on the primary vote least. The 2PP swing is 12.2%, just enough to deliver the seat to Labor, but that’s only from about 600 votes, the 2PP count being some distant behind the primary.
6.35pm. “All over the shop outside of urban areas”, says Possum, who has his act together sooner than I do. “Big indie, KAP and PUP votes in some places, smashing the LNP primary”.
6.33pm. I’m not telling you anything here you wouldn’t already know, but for the record, Leroy Lynch relates the exit polling in comment. Usual story for the Galaxy state poll: it would only be of use if we knew what seats, and what the swing was. But clearly Newman is gone in Ashgrove, and the whole show looks like being worse than expected for the LNP.
6.26pm. So there are exit polls, and they show frankly astounding result for Labor. Perhaps this means the Ashgrove debacle has driven late-deciders to Labor in their droves. I suspect there is at least an element of that. But exit polls generally target particular electorates, and are difficult to read if you don’t know which ones or how they’ve gone about it.
6.25pm. Otherwise, it’s the usual early count story of tiny booths coming in from rural electorates.
6.23pm. I’ll say this much: Ben Hopper doesn’t look like he’s going to do much in Condamine, so mark that one down for the LNP.
6.15pm. Polls closed 15 minutes ago. I’ve been distracted for the past hour or so, but I understand the exit polls were interesting. More on that shortly. I see a booth from Warrego is in, but there’ll be nothing worth discussing for at least half an hour.
Don’t forget to thank campbell newman for making tonight posible
Congratulations PB Laborites. That’s most of the best posters here.
I am in a bit of shock but should be recovered by Christmas.
Abbott’s supporters giving voice? He slammed their nuts between two bricks – is it a scream or a whimper?
Abbott is toast, I am sorry to say. I hope it is messy, drawn out, and very very public.
Half Term Tony was me on twitter until I changed it Australia day to Anthony the Insane.
I’m still Spartagus
Thanks for your comments Gecko.
Good speech here from Anna P.
davidwh@1002
Comrade, I hope you voted sensibly and didn’t let down you mum.
Holy shit. This result goes way beyond any of my wildest expectation. If there’s one thing you can always count on the Queensland LNP for, its their ability to just truly, utterly suck at everything they do. Hopefully they have another 15 or so years in the wilderness ahead of them. (Yes, yes, I know a Labor win isn’t a certainty yet… but its looking a whole lot more likely than another term of LNP fail)
Poor Tim Nichols. He was probably expecting to become Premier in a few days.
Dennis Shanahan’s effort tonight is a hoot.
His opening para is:
“It may be a disaster for Australia as well as the electorate dives for the lowest common (and illogical) denominator but it’s the Prime Minister who faces the next wave of wrath from his colleagues and the electorate.”
further on, he asserts:
“For Abbott there is no doubt his thoughtless and ideologically blind decision to appoint Prince Philip an Australian knight will have played some part in Newman’s loss in Ashgrove.”
[Never let the facts get in the way… pretty sure Newman had been looking doubtful in Ashgrove for more than a year.]
[Nick doesn’t think tobacco causes lung cancer.]
And thinks global warming is a socialist plot to transfer wealth to the developing world, or something.
Was out for the evening having lovely BBQ and watching the offsprung swim. Come home to find the LNP comprehensively thumped about in QLD, and Abbott is fwarked. 🙂
A good night all round and an amazing effort from the ALP in QLD. To come back from 7 to 9 to 43!!!! Interesting times ahead, but tonight they deserve to wallow in it. 🙂
And seems an outside chance of 45??
Loved Swannys ” They campaigned as moderates and governed as extremists” line. That is a sentiment that will resonate right across the country.
What will be the effect on the declaration vote from the new voter id laws?
Asha Leu@1009
It was written in the polls – for those who cared to look. 😐
david – commiserations.
[At least Prentice isn’t taking the standard LNP line of denial. I still remember Nick Minchin earnestly insisting that John Howard would win Bennelong on election night 2007.]
True. I’ve been impressed with Prentice tonight.
Its goodnight from me. A great night for the progressive side of politics.
Again congratulations to the Labor team especially in Queensland savour and enjoy the moment you all well deserve it..
asha
Never underestimate the stupidity of queensland tories. Two words: Barnaby Joyce
[“It may be a disaster for Australia as well as the electorate dives for the lowest common (and illogical) denominator…” ]
I fart in your general direction.
Anna P, likely the next premier.
Well done to her and Qld Labor.
Sticking the boot in Swannie.
Queenslanders may make mistakes but they learn from them quickly. How about the rest of you? 😉
gloryconsequence
Until today Palaszczuk came across much like FDOTM portrayed her, a bit bewildered. Her speech sounded very much the opposite. Unlike Tones if/when she gets the gig she looks like she really will grow into the job.
A great night for we true believers.
Prentice is such a lightweight compared to Swan. It really isn’t a fair fight. He’s just wiping the floor with her.
Or even us true believers.
ABC host: Will there be a challenge to Tony Abbott’s leadership?
Jane Prentice: I haven’t spoken to my colleagues yet.
Decent speech from Palascuk (need to learn how to spell that properly). Could have done without so many screaming, chanting idiots. Is it just me, or are the audiences for these victory and concession speeches becoming ever louder and more obnoxious with each election.
Though, to be fair, it was nowhere near as bad as that embarrassing display during Rudd’s 2013 concession. Now, that was painful.
Decent speech from Palascuk (need to learn how to spell that properly). Could have done without so many screaming, chanting idiots. Is it just me, or are the audiences for these victory and concession speeches becoming ever louder and more obnoxious with each election.
Though, to be fair, it was nowhere near as bad as that embarrassing display during Rudd’s 2013 concession. Now, that was painful.
poroti – She maybe does look a bit bewildered but she just talks normally and people connect with that.
The public is not going to put up with SH#t governments in the future.
The Abbott government is NEXT!.
Asha @ 1009: Nichols sounded pretty smooth – brain switched off, mouth on auto – until he realised he could end up as LOTO. Then his attitude hardened. “Terrible for Campbell, bad for the LNP” good for me as long as we hold 45 ohshit.
Tec I honestly think we will end up regretting not re-cycling the capital we would have received from the sale of those assets but obviously we put some idealogical value on public ownership. For me that is the tragedy of this election result. It means no QLD government for a long time with try again.
[Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 12m 12 minutes ago
I remember some frontbenchers underestimating backbench anger at Turnbull re ETS…well guess what, same anger directed at Abbott now…]
Wow. Prentice hinting that Abbott’s position is truly in jeopardy.
Well; hung parliament or ALP win; it would be unfair to ask for more that that.
Another one term Liberal government. The Liberals are managing to put this two term minimum idea to bed. They need to deliver a one term federal government to really nail it.
QLand result
__________
Anna Aphabet waged a remarkable campaign and if as seems likely she leads a Labor Govt she will have a speial place in our history having come from the basement to the pinicle in one leap….and the first woman to ever lead an oppositon to power in Oz
…an how long can Abbott last…I think he will hang on(I hope so) as he is now a disaster for them ..have no doubts that Turnbull would be a harder man to down and wouldn’t make the silly mistakes that are Soooo Abbott
1018
He is a NSW Tory now.
He has still just recently bet his house on Abbott being the leader at the next election. That however was before tonight`s result.
It will be very interesting to see how a government runs with a whole team of brand new players and very little experience (could be a good thing).
Can’t do any worse then the Libs.
@1004,
[Abbott is toast, I am sorry to say. I hope it is messy, drawn out, and very very public.]
And I hope it goes into next year 🙂
I’m happily surprised. Had hopes but not expectations. The best kind of election. Well done to those of you bravely predicted the result.
[ davidwh
Posted Saturday, January 31, 2015 at 11:53 pm | Permalink
Tec I honestly think we will end up regretting not re-cycling the capital we would have received from the sale of those assets but obviously we put some idealogical value on public ownership. For me that is the tragedy of this election result. It means no QLD government for a long time with try again.
]
If that sort of stuff floats your boat, sell your house and rent it back instead.
rummel,
QLD Labor has to do a very good job policy wise or else it risks taking the edge of things for Labor federally.
Swannie deserves a beer or three. And a medal.
Giving up your time on a night like this when there is celebrating to be done shows great commitment to the cause.
david – I still think a case can be made for privatisation, in some circumstances, but it’s obviously a headwind that will be a struggle to overcome if a government saddles themselves with all of the other nonsense fights Newman’s picked.
But both sides need to learn that you can’t force tough reforms – you have to be honest about it, fair about it, and pursue it in the interests of the people. I think the LNP have failed in Queensland because they failed at least 2 of those tests, rather than because of privatisation per se.
@1041,
I have to say I’m wrong. I was thinking the Liberals would win in QLD, but it would be close. Basically a reversal of what we see tongiht.
Clearly the poll calculations are wrong.
And the next thing I want to know is, what does this tell us about federal polls?
[
deblonay
Posted Saturday, January 31, 2015 at 11:57 pm | Permalink
..
and the first woman to ever lead an oppositon to power in Oz..
..
]
Very good point.
gloryconsequence
No arguments from me. State politics is a different kettle of fish when it comes down to what plays well and I be only seeing what is reported from a long way away.
“Tec I honestly think we will end up regretting not re-cycling the capital we would have received from the sale of those assets but obviously we put some idealogical value on public ownership. For me that is the tragedy of this election result. It means no QLD government for a long time with try again.”
What rubbish! Recycling capital is LNP bullshit for selling out to our LNP mates. It is clear that the proposed leases were a con on the Queensland Taxpayer who will be now better off in the longer term.
The only “ideological value” was the LNP mantra – “Sell it to our mates!” which achieved a very clear result for them.
The message is clear. Do what you are elected to do and don’t bullshit, don’t lie and don’t play ideological games.
Unlikely that the LNP will learn from it tho’ … too stupid as the above shows.
davidwh
Don’t be sad. Truth is that for moderate conservatives this is the best thing that could have happened. Gives you an opening to take back the party (QLD and federal) from the radical right and become competitive on policy again (not to mention leadership).
Carpe diem.
I genuinely wish you the best in that. 🙂