Galaxy: 57-43 to Labor; Ipsos: 54-46

On a devastating night for conservative politics, a Galaxy poll drives another nail in the prime ministerial coffin.

On top of everything else, the News Limited tabloids offer a lethal Galaxy poll for Tony Abbott, showing Labor leading by 57-43 on two-party preferred and 43% to 36% on the primary vote, with the Greens on 11% and Palmer United on 3%. Bill Shorten now has a commanding 44-27 lead over Abbott as preferred prime minister. Perhaps a little superfluously, we are also told that 70% opposed the Prince Philip knighthood, with 14% of diehards in support.

UPDATE (Ipsos): The Fairfax papers report that their latest Ipsos poll has it at a more modest 54-46 based on 2013 election preferences, which becomes 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences. On the primary vote, Labor is on 40% (up three), the Coalition is on 38% (down two). Minor party and personal ratings presumably to follow this evening. The latter should be particularly interesting, as they will provide the first straight approve-disapprove numbers for Tony Abbott since the Prince Philip folly.

UPDATE 2: Those Ipsos ratings for Abbott don’t disappoint: he’s down nine points on approval to 29%, and up ten on disapproval to 67%. Apart from the undecided rate, preferred prime minister is similar to Galaxy, with Shorten’s lead out from 47-39 to 50-34. It would seem Shorten himself is being increasingly flattered by comparison with Abbott, as his approval rating is up two to a strong 48%, with disapproval down three to 38%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,263 comments on “Galaxy: 57-43 to Labor; Ipsos: 54-46”

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  1. [The woman’s allegation were made on Facebook and at the time, it was reported that she had written on the social networking site (which social networking site in 1985?):

    “In 1985 I joined the ALP. In 86 at the age of 16 I … became a delegate for state and national conferences. In 86 I went to a Young Labor camp down near Geelong … I was alone … at about 4am there was a knock at my door. It was ‘Desert Fox’ at the door. He pushed me into a bathroom, up against a towel rail, pulled down my pants and raped me.”]

    Easy to make allegations, isn’t it?

    Prove it wasn’t you, Desert Fox, at the door, in 1986 – you know, 30 years ago.

    Then, report it to Vic Police, get them to investigate, and then for VicPol to say there’s nothing to substantiate the claim.

    It was you, wasn’t it? Trying to blame someone else, aren’t you?

  2. [the philosphy of the modern liberal party is deeply sociopathic. no empathy. no understanding of humanity. no accepting of blame. constant lying to get what they know most people do not want.]

    Which is why I have less fear now of the consequences for the centre-left of Abbott being dumped. It is a necessary, but nowhere near sufficient step, in making the Libs electable. They still have to do a major policy reset, but culturally and ideologically can’t get out of the basic policy position they have got them selves into, without a politically devastating mea culpa to the voters, and, in effect, a disowning of their financial backers.

    That is assuming they have even cottoned onto the fact that they need the policy overhaul component. Considerable public evidence a lot of them have not yet.

  3. [ The most important part of the RBA statement was that the RBA now expects the unemployment rate to rise above previous forecasts. Late last year: 6.3% Current rate: 6.1%. Previous RBA forecast 6.4%. new forecast “higher than preivous”

    They think the labour market is going to be destroyed ]

    This must be an Oh Sh$t Oh Dear moment for the Libs. Wonder if any of them are now questioning the wisdom of a Productivity Commission Inquiry into IR timed to report back just as big job losses hit home in the car industry??

    [ Tony is throwing an barbecue for the team.. Given the poisonous relationships in Cabinet I Hope the food tasters are on hand ]

    Serving Salmon Mousse perhaps? 🙂

    Good to see DF has come slithering out of the woodwork again to entertain with his idiot dick-headedness. 🙂

  4. [“@MiaFreedman: ‘Yes I made promises but things different after election that we couldn’t control’. Abbott destroyed Gillard for saying the same thing. #npc”]
    Thanks for posting this tweet (and others) Guytaur. The logic of Abbott’s argument may be one he is not so comfortable with (assuming he has the capacity to understand it).

    Having admitted that he made promises (to the voters) that he has not been able to keep (after the election) makes plain the voters have not got what they voted for. Since Abbott claims it was the voters, not his Parliamentary colleagues, that gave him the PM gong, it would follow logically that he should give us another vote now he has breached his promises. Things like his self-claimed “signature” promise, no less.

    Alternatively his Parliamentary colleagues are entitled to replace him for being hopelessly compromised. Surely even Abbott cannot think that a candidate for PM can say anything before an election and then do whatever he likes afterwards and still claim a mandate from “the people”.

    The second comment to be made about Abbott’s preposterous claim that a PM voted in should not be removed involuntarily except at an election is that this arrogance must go down well with Liberal MPs. It is the very same “command and control” attitude that has seen him make his ridiculous “Captain’s pick’ (now a pejorative descriptor) which has caused so much damage to the Liberal Party. Good to see Abbott spurns Howard’s much more modest (if equally conflicted) claim to tenure as PM. If being a “Liberal” stands for anything it must surely be to revolt against Abbott’s undemocratic, demagogic construct.

    The Essential poll as to who would make the best leader of the Liberal Party giving Abbott of 11% is extraordinary. I can imagine that some of those 11% would be ALP supporters who are enjoying the Liberal Party woes and fear a more capable leader. In any event 11% must mean support for Abbott in the Liberal Party has evaporated.

  5. S & P fined $1.3 billion dollars for defrauding financial markets with securities certification
    Moodys is next in the gun.

    Capital markets are still being certified by these crooks

  6. & brutus, cassius and co were ‘robust’ in their support of julius caesar.

    morrison looked lean and hungry at the NPC.

    the media are a dog with a bone on this and will not rest until there is a party room spill. Will abbott call this in the hope the others do not have the numbers yet? I think he realises he’s left it too late and will now try to tough it out by threatening to make it as messy as he can if they try to blast him out. I fully support him in this approach :).

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