Galaxy: 57-43 to Labor; Ipsos: 54-46

On a devastating night for conservative politics, a Galaxy poll drives another nail in the prime ministerial coffin.

On top of everything else, the News Limited tabloids offer a lethal Galaxy poll for Tony Abbott, showing Labor leading by 57-43 on two-party preferred and 43% to 36% on the primary vote, with the Greens on 11% and Palmer United on 3%. Bill Shorten now has a commanding 44-27 lead over Abbott as preferred prime minister. Perhaps a little superfluously, we are also told that 70% opposed the Prince Philip knighthood, with 14% of diehards in support.

UPDATE (Ipsos): The Fairfax papers report that their latest Ipsos poll has it at a more modest 54-46 based on 2013 election preferences, which becomes 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences. On the primary vote, Labor is on 40% (up three), the Coalition is on 38% (down two). Minor party and personal ratings presumably to follow this evening. The latter should be particularly interesting, as they will provide the first straight approve-disapprove numbers for Tony Abbott since the Prince Philip folly.

UPDATE 2: Those Ipsos ratings for Abbott don’t disappoint: he’s down nine points on approval to 29%, and up ten on disapproval to 67%. Apart from the undecided rate, preferred prime minister is similar to Galaxy, with Shorten’s lead out from 47-39 to 50-34. It would seem Shorten himself is being increasingly flattered by comparison with Abbott, as his approval rating is up two to a strong 48%, with disapproval down three to 38%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,263 comments on “Galaxy: 57-43 to Labor; Ipsos: 54-46”

Comments Page 1 of 46
1 2 … 46

  6. I know it is highly unlikely, but imagine if the LNP and its Leader recognised global warming and the need to adopt market mechanisms to confront it, had a policy to give Austrlaians a high quality NBN, accepted a degree of protection of significant Autralian environments and that all policies would be basically fair in their impacts.

    What then would be the role of the ALP?

    Or is it just the “wet” branch of the LNP?

  8. [I know it is highly unlikely, but imagine if the LNP and its Leader recognised global warming and the need to adopt market mechanisms to confront it]
    That’s the hilarious thing. They can’t just get rid of Abbott and keep all of his policies! If they get rid of Abbott they still need to get rid of a lot of his policies that are pissing so many people off.

  9. Swamprat

    Imagine a world where you had 100% of nothing.

    Where you can feel the warm and comfortable lack of responsibility bringing comfort and warmth in a world only worthy of complaint.

  10. Abbott is obviously no longer in control of events; he is at the mercy of other forces. This has really been the case at least since his absurd threat to shirtfront Putin, the humiliation of the G20 and his defeat in Cabinet by Julie Bishop. He has also had to carry the indignity of being turned in public first by his Ministers and later by his backbench in relation to Medicare payments, and of being given his operating instructions on twitter from Rupert Murdoch. In recent days, he has simply confirmed what everyone already suspected – he’s capable of very ill-considered, even irrational, acts.

    He’s clearly a PM in name only. In fact, power left his hands some time ago. The ritual confirming this can only be days away.

  11. Wouldn’t surprise me if sometime this afternoon Mal Brough proposes that Abbott declare leadership of Liberal party vacant.

  12. Personally I feel for Tony’s staff. When Tony goes he’ll have a very comfortable pension. His staff won’t.

    Did the current Government reduce the payout for departing staff on entering office in 2013?

  14. What happens to that ABC guy who has just taken up a job with Abbott…and left the ABC into the bargin????bad decision I suspect

  16. So who’s it going to be next, Coalition?

    Turnbull? Not enough in lockstep with the IPA for your tastes, I’d imagine. Not to mention being the face of fraudband.

    Bishop? Please do – given the way you treated the last unmarried, “deliberately barren” woman to roll the elected PM, it should be a treat!

    Hockey? Please please please – remember that he wanted an even tougher Budget?

    Morrison? He’s a headkicker, not a leader – like Abbott, only moreso. Admittedly smart enough not to embarrass himself in public, but his skillset is not that of a leader, and he’s unlikely to fare well as PM.

    The LNP is rather short on viable talent these days, ladies and gents…

  17. Abbott has strengthed the SA Labor Govt.in recent by-elections .and helped bring down the Vic and Qland govts too what a record

    BTW the only person to predict this disaster quite correctly was Bob EllIS ,with a very accurate prediction of the result,seats ete

  19. [That’s the hilarious thing. They can’t just get rid of Abbott and keep all of his policies! If they get rid of Abbott they still need to get rid of a lot of his policies that are pissing so many people off.]

    They can pretend to not be extremists. Will last until people figure out things like Malcolm Turnbull’s Mistake is a 40 billion white elephant and that they’re not actually going to give up on cutting working conditions.

  20. [Turnbull? Not enough in lockstep with the IPA for your tastes, I’d imagine. Not to mention being the face of fraudband.]

    I so hope that that bites him on the bum before the next election.

  24. The pollsters performed badly in the Qld 2015 Election.
    Kevin B failed miserably with his decision to back an LNP win as the most probable result especially given the evidence available.
    I hope the polling community will take a good look at themselves and perform better in the future.

  25. The pollsters said LNP 42% and Labor 37%. The result at present is LNP 41% and Labor 38%, and will probably move still closer to what the pollsters said in late counting. That’s handsomely within the margin of error. Having said that, the election indeed gives pollsters something to consider, namely the utility of using previous election preferences when it’s clear the result will be quite unlike that of the last election. I tried to account for this by coming up with a regression model to project preference flows for my poll aggregate, but it didn’t work terribly well.

  26. William, what I’d like to know is whether the issue of apportioning preferences is a QLD thing or if has some bearing on Federal polls?

  27. CC, it’s a Queensland thing in that OPV introduces a particularly volatile variable in the mix, namely the exhaustion rate. That was especially significant at this election, at which the question of whether one should just vote one or number every box was a big part of both parties’ strategies. Having said that, published 2PPs federally might well be underrating Labor at the moment (which is saying something).

  28. WB
    Do we have any indication of the impact of preference flows in this election compared to the previous of the Greens preferences particularly perhaps in the light of their theme “Number every square, put the LNP last’?

  32. Definitely don’t envy psephologists in trying to reach a statistically sensible estimation of preference flows for a next election where the previous election was unusual (and both 2012 for Queensland and 2013 federally were unusual). What must have made it harder for 2015 in Queensland and may make it hard for 2016 federally is that a deeply unpopular former government has been replaced by a similarly but perhaps lesser-so unpopular new government.

  34. Gawd its 5:41am. I’m too wired after this.

    Definitely not going to be awake for Insiders. That one is going to be fun 🙂

  35. And on the leadership of the Liberal Party I’m of two minds. Abbott remaining in the leadership will make it much more likely for the ALP to return to government in 2016. However, I’d probably prefer to see a significantly revised direction for the Government sooner rather than later. This could really only be possible if not only the PM changed, but a significant portion of the Cabinet and ministry. I think this would be possible as there’s a lot of dead wood in the Cabinet currently that could be moved on and replaced with fresh thinkers.

    If necessary, the Government should consider recruiting fresh people via Senate casual vacancies. Preferably people not beholden to IPA-style thinking as that is part of what has gotten them into this mess to begin with.

    A new PM should also attempt to reach consensus with the Opposition on Senate electoral reform – although something tells me the Opposition will not want to touch that until it can gauge how well the leadership change has gone down with the public.

  37. Good morning Dawn Patrollers – and what a morning it is!

    Goodnight Irene, Goodnight Irene! If Abbott’s still PM by QT on Tuesday it will be a surprise.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/federal-liberal-mp-warns-on-live-tv-that-tony-abbott-could-face-a-leadership-challenge-20150131-132ybs.html
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-reels-from-triple-blow-mal-brough-queensland-and-new-poll-heap-pressure-on-pm-20150131-132x5u.html
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/feb/01/queensland-election-drubbing-puts-tony-abbotts-leadership-under-pressure
    Michelle Grattan – Abbott has been rocked by the Queensland result.
    https://theconversation.com/queensland-vote-rocks-abbott-37021
    Dennis Atkins in the discredited Courier Mail.
    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland-state-election-2015/opinion-queensland-election-result-body-blow-to-pm-tony-abbott/story-fnrab879-1227203756529
    Ben Eltham – Newman goes from hero to zero.
    https://newmatilda.com/2015/02/01/hero-zero-queensland-turfs-out-campbell-newman
    How “electronic graffiti” pays a big part in consumerism now.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/social-media-fury-reveals-the-customers-always-write-20150131-12ztae.html
    Peter FitzSimons – Abbott will be our last monarchist PM.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/prince-philips-knighthood-means-tony-abbott-will-be-our-last-monarchist-pm-20150131-131zrv.html
    Surely! Not in the Vatican!
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/child-pornography-uncovered-in-vatican-last-year-20150131-132ys3.html
    Bob Carr implores Australians to boycott recognition of Australian knights and dames.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/boycott-knighthoods-and-damehoods-bob-carr-20150131-132of3.html

  39. At this point, is there some way Labor can keep Abbott on for another year or so? His departure will be a loss to the party, keenly felt by all hoping for victory in 2016. Cartoonists and satirists will mourn his passing as well.

    The people giveth, and the people taketh away. Abbott spent too much time taking leadership advice from men who never had to face reelection by their parishoners.

  41. True BK. We rightly do not dwell on people’s private lives in Australian politics, but sometimes it says something relevant about someone’s character. Sophie M is an interesting example. You could hardly imagine Palaszczuk or Jones doing the same.

    Nor does compassion make them weak. They have shown a lot of strength and determination in the campaign.

  42. If it’s Turnbull then it’s game on. He’s a moderate that appeals across a wide group. When Turnbull and Shorten are in a room, all eyes are on Turnbull according to my lady friends.

  44. [Dennis Atkins in the discredited Courier Mail.]
    That raises an interesting point.
    Just how much, to what degree, has the CM, and Murdoch in general, been discredited by the fiasco in Qld?
    I’m presuming, based on some extracts from the CM seen here and elsewhere, that they actively supported the Newman LNP and its obvious the Qld voters did not.
    My social media certainly was not on the same page as the CM.

  45. Turnbull might actually break the impasse on some social issues like marriage equality and also climate change. But will his own party room accept him, having been stacked by right wing Howard clones for ten years?

  47. A mean and punitive government at work. When approached, they kindly send a copy of the PM’s presser – which said nothing.

    [A Fairfax Media investigation has uncovered more than 50 different services across Australia that are cutting staff, closing entirely or slashing programs. The groups provide victims of domestic violence with services ranging from applying for intervention orders to obtaining emergency food and medical supplies.

    Ms Batty voiced her concerns directly to the Prime Minister’s office on Friday to say the cuts, worth nearly $300 million, were at odds with the Prime Minister’s public stance on family violence.

    “It is a double standard, it is contradictory and totally undervaluing the part that these workers play in our front line services,” she said.
    . . .

    In the first half of last year the Attorney-General, George Brandis, repeatedly assured Community Legal Centres that the cuts were directed only at policy and law reform activity but the May 2014 cuts targeted direct legal services for disadvantaged and vulnerable clients, said Smith.

    A spokesperson for the Prime Minister’s Office responded by sending a transcript of the Prime Minister’s press conference on Tuesday. The Attorney-General’s office did not respond.

    The Australian Services Union will hold a rally in Sydney to campaign against the closures on Thursday, February 26, two days before the funding is cut.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australian-of-the-year-rosie-batty-calls-on-pm-tony-abbott-to-reinstate-community-services-20150131-132o1n.html

  49. Good Morning

    A great blow to right wing power and policies. The LNP rocked and serious questions being asked about the influence of Murdoch.

    Loving the post election analysis this morning.

    Cannot be said enough. Great work Labor Queensland.

  50. “Support for Labor has ­increased in the latest poll to 43 per cent. This is the best result for Labor in any Galaxy Poll since the Abbott government was elected,’’ Galaxy’s David Briggs said.

    Thats a pretty big statement considering the polls after the May(?) budget. But perhaps galaxy missed the peak of that, but had good timing on this #knightmare

Comments Page 1 of 46
1 2 … 46

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *