On top of everything else, the News Limited tabloids offer a lethal Galaxy poll for Tony Abbott, showing Labor leading by 57-43 on two-party preferred and 43% to 36% on the primary vote, with the Greens on 11% and Palmer United on 3%. Bill Shorten now has a commanding 44-27 lead over Abbott as preferred prime minister. Perhaps a little superfluously, we are also told that 70% opposed the Prince Philip knighthood, with 14% of diehards in support.
UPDATE (Ipsos): The Fairfax papers report that their latest Ipsos poll has it at a more modest 54-46 based on 2013 election preferences, which becomes 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences. On the primary vote, Labor is on 40% (up three), the Coalition is on 38% (down two). Minor party and personal ratings presumably to follow this evening. The latter should be particularly interesting, as they will provide the first straight approve-disapprove numbers for Tony Abbott since the Prince Philip folly.
UPDATE 2: Those Ipsos ratings for Abbott don’t disappoint: he’s down nine points on approval to 29%, and up ten on disapproval to 67%. Apart from the undecided rate, preferred prime minister is similar to Galaxy, with Shorten’s lead out from 47-39 to 50-34. It would seem Shorten himself is being increasingly flattered by comparison with Abbott, as his approval rating is up two to a strong 48%, with disapproval down three to 38%.
[How “electronic graffiti” pays a big part in consumerism now.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/social-media-fury-reveals-the-customers-always-write-20150131-12ztae.html%5D
Wow thanks for this. Those new Glad containers were heinous and I’m glad to see the back of them!
This is going to be an interesting test for the Nationals. The vote was against city policies that the Nationals have been going along with for years.
In Queensland there is likely going to be a split. Will this translate nationally to the Nationals being for Labor’s NBN?
If its Bishop/Turnbull, surely they will have a free hand to dump Sweaty, Conman, Chrissie, Suet-face and other duds – and will. It will be fascinating to see who is given a push after Tone.
WB;
A poll late last year said that half of are influenced by federal issues when voting at state elections.
Perhaps that influence is more pronounced in preference votes as people are value their primary vote more.
If thats true it might make sense to factor in preference flows from other recent state elections.
IT would be interesting to see how these preference flows compare to Victoria, and to a lesser extent SA
I did see a tweet last night from Windsor that he would see Joyces house and raise him a garden shed… 🙂
K17
It is going to be interesting to see also what policies get dumped and adopted. Some in the LNP may have listened to Mr Swan last night
[That’s a terrible poll for Mark Simkin.]
Good.
I said last week the stalking horse play might be on and up pops Brough. Also said a 57-43 Newspoll would definitely trigger it, a Galaxy is probably worth about the same.
Fear my predictions and welcome PM Morrison and DPM Robb!
(actually he’s the one I do fear could make the Coal re-electable)
The really sad thing is that after dumping fuel excise indexation on the Vics, and Medicare backflips, GST changes and Prince Sir Duke Earl Phil the Greek on the LNP is that we now won’t get to find out what Abbott had up his sleeve to blow up Baird. It would have needed to be an absolute cracker and probably a multi-pronged attack of stupid to get the ALP up in NSW, but I believe Tony has the skillset and the determination to give it a red hot crack. Unfortunately he just won’t be given the opportunity. 🙁
Bill Shorten will be feeling a little depressed.
[Personally I feel for Tony’s staff.]
Why? Under Toxic Tony’s government, thousands of public servants have lost their jobs. Are you feeling sorry for them too?
Listening to Truss on ABC is making me nauseous. Apparently the Labor party ran a negative campaign whilst the LNP ran a great campaign. They just don’t get it. The arrogance is astounding?
However they will listen to the people and can’t take anything for granted – what bulldust. They have been a dictatorial arrogant mob even in opposition and even more so in government. A pox on them all. When have they ever really listened to people?
Warren Entsch blaming everyone else on 24 now
From other thread, Steven Grant Haby, exhausted means there was no preference allocation on the Greens ticket, for example. The voter just put 1 next to the candidates name.
Well it looks like speculation is over and we are going to find out who the next Liberal leader is to be.
William on how the pollsters got Qld result so wrong:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/02/01/what-happened/
[Apparently the Labor party ran a negative campaign whilst the LNP ran a great campaign.]
LOL. Even from the other side of the country I could see the LNP campaign was woeful.
Allan Moyes
Headline about Truzzzzz in the GG. Indeed out of touch.
[Queensland election 2015: Truss says blame unions, not knighthood ]
fess
On;y woeful in the sense that there was going to be more pain from a group of bullies. It was a “strong” campaign (to use Campbell’s overused word).
Government slashes jobs, loses election. Must be the fault of the unions 😛
@58 “Personally I feel for Tony’s staff.”
As a reasonably recent ex-public servant nor do I, not all. Most will get jobs with another polly. Undoubtedly the most rude, arrogant and demanding pack of nasties (I/we) had to deal with were from the then leader of the oppositions office. And that’s saying something as many of the staffers (of all political persuasions) were real arseholes. They we definitely some gems though. A lot love public servant bashing ignoring the fact they are MOP’s paid by the Dept of Finance and dont actually realise they are pseudo public servants anyhow.
lizzie
Everyone except them to blame…………apparently.
Yep, Simkin has shown what a keen judge of the political climate he is. How embarrassing. Clearly let his ideological blinkers lead him astray
Pontificating Paul Kelly has just cast Abbott aside in his Sky Agenda Sunday sermon.
PvO – there is movement at the station.
Paul Kelly – essentially Abbott is done but Coalition can’t think they will change leader and all their problems disappear
[The Piping Shrike @Piping_Shrike · 6m 6 minutes ago
People do realise that “we’re waiting to see what Abbott says on Monday” means “we don’t yet know the numbers”, no?]
[Troy Bramston @TroyBramston · 4m 4 minutes ago
Paul Kelly says Tony Abbott’s leadership is now “in play” on #AustralianAgenda @SkyNewsAust]
How can it not be?
Monday’s keynote address would be a good time for the PM to announce his resignation.
So much fun to see the shills and dills who boosted and polished the Tony Turd frantically pushing the button trying to get him to flush.
Morning all
I have been watching Sky agenda. Brandis is continuing with his mantra of the govt having to proceed with the reforms they wish to enact. He is in la la land
Brandis reckons Abbott can take the public with him on the journey of reform. Delusional!!
victoria
Brandis knows he’s done if Abbott gets knifed so he’s batting hard for him.
Murdoch has his say
“@rupertmurdoch: Shock turnover in Q’land outing okay govt.. Blank cheque to nobodies. Can’t ignore this a huge message to Feds. People have spoken!”
Another one that does not get it
Geroge Brandis is behaving like a petulant schoolboy on Sky Agenda.
The Dirty Digger can’t help himself
[@rupertmurdoch: Shock turnover in Q’land outing okay govt.. Blank cheque to nobodies. Can’t ignore this a huge message to Feds. People have spoken!]
gc
Brandis is not giving an inch whatsoever. He reckons this govt continues with its agenda that it was voted on. What utter crap!!
Abbott becoming the Liberal wrecking ball.
http://www.smh.com.au/queensland/queensland-state-election-2015/tony-abbott-becoming-liberal-wrecking-ball-20150131-132vul.html
Brandis says that it is a united cabinet and a united party. He reminds me of comical ali
victoria
He doesn’t really believe it. He’s holding firm behind Abbott because he’s loyal to him. Brandis wasn’t even supposed to be on Agenda this morning. He’s the only one willing to pop their head out this morning.
Hey Rupert, people have spoken – how’s your circulation? (real sales, not bull)
confessions@85
I don’t buy it. I think Abbott may have had a minor effect, but I think Newman and the Queensland LNP are solely responsible for this crushing result.
victoria
They may be united on slash and burn policy, but that will do them no good. They are all so bloody self-righteous!
gc
Brandis is sure going out of his way to insist all is well with the fed govt
victoria
That’s his job! He will fight to the death.
So, according to George Brandis, they lost the election because the Courier Mail used its front pages for two days on the knighthood rather than two more days of its disgusting anti-Labor banner froint pages.
Victoria – Bookshelves is toast. No new leader will keep him on.
Brandis knows he is one of the duds who is for the chop in any root and branch reshuffle.
BK
Brandis as,per usual is talking utter crap
The cabinet may well be solid in (current) support for Abbott because many of the duds are in fear of losing their ministerial positions.
k17
Brandis is desperately trying to convince all and sundry that up is down
[Allan Moyes
Posted Sunday, February 1, 2015 at 8:13 am | Permalink
Personally I feel for Tony’s staff.
Why? Under Toxic Tony’s government, thousands of public servants have lost their jobs. Are you feeling sorry for them too?]
With an estimated 30,000 more to go. One of Abbott’s lesser known achievements has been to destroy the APS as one of the world’s better bureaucracies.
Campbell’s wife sure did strange niddy noddy marionette during his goodbye speech.