10.09pm. All seats on my watch list have three booths outstanding, so maybe that represents consistent blank spaces for things that won’t be counted tonight.
10.04pm. Another booth in from Whitsunday and the LNP moves into the lead (bearing in mind that I’m talking about the booth-matched computer projection here, not the raw result), going from Labor 0.3% ahead to LNP 0.1% ahead.
9.54pm. Though I’m beginning to think these outstanding booths are perhaps things like that won’t be counted this evening.
9.45pm. Another booth from Mansfield, effectively no change, but the change there has been has been from a 0.1% Labor lead to a 0.1% LNP lead. Three booths outstanding.
9.40pm. Another booth in from Mount Ommaney, leaving three outstanding, but Labor’s lead is unchanged at 0.7%.
9.35pm. Then there’s Maryborough, which Labor will win if Chris Foley doesn’t finish ahead of them. With 27 of 30 booths, the primary votes are 29.6% for the LNP, 25.3% for Labor and 22.1% for Foley. Whether Foley closes the gap depends on preferences, which we won’t know about this evening. That includes 12.6% for Palmer United and 10.4% for others.
9.30pm. So here’s the seats I’ll be over like a rash from now on, namely Labor’s shortest path to 45 off its base of 42:
Ferny Grove. Labor leads by 0.9%, three booths outstanding.
Mansfield. 50.0-50.0, four booths outstanding.
Mount Ommaney. Labor leads by 0.7%, four booths outstanding.
Whitsunday. Labor leads by 0.3%, four booths outstanding.
9.26pm. Pumicestone has moved hard to Labor: lead now of 3.0%. Perhaps we’re seeing different dynamics in Caboolture and Bribie Island, with the count ping-ponging as booths from either end report.
9.18pm. Some of those Labor leads have slackened a bit: from a base of 41, they’re ahead by 0.9% in Ferny Grove, 0.1% in Mansfield, 0.7% in Mount Ommaney, 0.5% in Pumicestone and 0.3% in Whitsunday. It’s certain doable for a broad trend in late counting to wash that away.
8.55pm. I might be a little more cautious than Antony in describing 43 Labor seats as “definites”, given the number of amount of pre-polling and the evident late swing. Having said that, you’d rarely win much money backing my assessment over his.
8.49pm. That said, there are further seats which might go Labor: Mansfield, Maryborough, Pumicestone, Whitsunday, over and above the four that are their most likely pathway to a majority.
8.46pm. The ABC has reined Glass House back from LNP hold to LNP ahead. But my instinct would be that the LNP will end up winning anything where they’re ahead. The question is, are these 2% Labor leads in Ferny Grove, Mansfield, Mount Coot-tha and Mundingburra sticky enough to hold off a likely move back to the LNP in late counting.
8.41pm. I’ve still got Labor working off a base of 41, and I would rather be Labor than the LNP in Ferny Grove, Mansfield, Mount Coot-tha and Mundingburra.
8.38pm. ABC computer says Labor win in Mount Ommaney, but they’re only 1.0%. Not that it had ever been in my Labor total.
8.38pm. Mount Cooth-tha now reined back from Labor win to Labor ahead – a bit of a trend.
8.27pm. I’d been assuming Chris Foley was headed for third in Maryborough, but Palmer United preferences might push him ahead of Labor. So hard to see the LNP winning, but this could increase the cross-bench to four, and reduce Labor to 42.
8.26pm. I should add that given the late surge to Labor, you would expect late counting to be better for the LNP. So I’m leaning back towards a hung parliament.
8.23pm. Ferny Grove pegged back from Labor win to Labor gain. So it’s still a very live question whether it’s a hung parliament or a Labor majority. Wayne Swan graciously allowing for an LNP majority, but that’s hard to see. My count: Labor 43, LNP 37, cross-bench 3. In doubt: Ferny Grove, Mansfield, Maryborough, Pumicestone, Whitsunday.
8.18pm. So I’ve still got Labor on 44, with another four seats that could go either way.
8.16pm. Albert now being called for LNP.
8.09pm. Pumicestone has been downgraded from ALP gain to ALP ahead, so Labor back down to 44. So sorry if any champagne corks just popped/wrists got slashed.
8.05pm. The ABC computer is now calling Mundingburra for Labor, so I’ve now got Labor to 45. Not that late count reversals are unheard of, but there’s another four seats that are lineball – Albert, Mansfield, Maryborough, Mount Ommaney and Whitsunday. Plus Redlands, where the LNP is ahead but not home and hosed.
7.58pm. Things keep falling Labor’s way. Brisbane Central, Ferny Grove and Mount Coot-tha now called for Labor. Only Redlands goes the way of the LNP. Still in doubt: Albert, Mansfield, Maryborough, Mount Ommaney, Mundingburra, Whitsunday. Any one of them, and Labor wins.
7.54pm. Antony says 46 the most likely result. Need I remind you, 45 is a majority. But, of course, he advises caution.
7.52pm. I’d neglected to mention Maryborough. Chris Foley falling short, producing a Labor versus LNP contest in which Labor has its nose in front.
7.51pm. My calculations didn’t account for Springwood, a spectacular Labor gain. So adding in Mundingburra, that reads as 41 Labor, 36 LNP, cross-bench 3, nine in doubt.
7.49pm. One of those key seats, Mundingburra, is now being called by the ABC computer for Labor.
7.45pm. Or to put it another way, Labor on the cusp of the barest of majorities. If they fail, very likely a hung parliament. Nearly everything would have to go right for the LNP to get them to 45.
7.43pm. In sum: Labor 40, LNP 36, cross-bench 3, in doubt 10.
7.40pm. In doubt: Albert, Brisbane Central, Ferny Grove, Mansfield, Mount Coot-tha (another inner-city surprise), Mount Ommaney (big show for Labor if so), Mundingburra, Redlands, Whitsunday.
7.38pm. No sooner do I type than does Brisbane Central tick back to Labor ahead. Certainly not being called though.
7.36pm. Surprisingly close in Brisbane Central though. ABC computer says LNP with nose in front.
7.36pm. LNP at least looking better on the Gold Coast now. Albert and Broadwater in doubt, but Burleigh down as LNP retain.
7.35pm. No, nothing doing in Burdekin or Gaven. Both to go LNP. Same cross bench as last parliament.
7.33pm. Cross bench: Mount Isa, Dalrymple, Nicklin. But the ABC computer isn’t yet saying anything about Burdekin or Gaven. Will look into those.
7.28pm. Predictable Labor gains: Ashgrove, Brisbane Central, Bulimba, Cairns, Capalaba, Cook, Greenslopes, Ipswich, Ipswich West, Keppel, Logan, Lytton, Morayfield, Nudgee, Sandgate, Townsville, Waterford, Yeerongpilly. Less predictable: Barron River, Algester, Bundaberg, Kallangur, Mirani, Murrumba, Pine Rivers, Redlands, Stretton, Tooowoomba North.
7.25pm. Labor looks like winning Barron River, but LNP predicted to retain Mundingburra, so a mixed picture up north.
7.23pm. Just stepped out for an ABC News Radio appearance, come back and see the ABC computer is now projecting 42 seats for Labor, which is certainly minority government territory. Wayne Swan talking up Murrumba big time, so clearly a huge swing in that outer northern Brisbane sweet spot where so many seats stand to be won and lost.
7.13pm. Whitsunday perhaps a slight disappointment for Labor – ABC projecting LNP ahead.
7.12pm. More good news for Labor: Wayne Swan talking up Pine Rivers, Labor ahead in Burleigh, a few obvious gains like Yeerongpilly, Greenslopes (though somewhat modest swing there), Ipswich. Labor holds Redcliffe and wins Stretton, the latter being a strong result. The verdict: the LNP will struggle to keep a majority.
7.10pm. Townsville to Labor. Kallangur though is the most exciting result for Labor yet.
7.05pm. Cairns and Kallangur called for Labor, and so apparently are Gladstone and Mackay, which might otherwise have gone independent.
7.03pm. With talk of a 9% swing, and nothing yet locked down for Labor above that range, the results are still consistent with the LNP getting over the line – but I attach a very big zone of uncertainty to that observation. And clearly Newman has lost Ashgrove.
7.01pm. Huge swing in Toowoomba South – not winnable for Labor, but presumably stands them in good stead for Toowoomba North.
7.00pm. Labor ahead in Bundaberg, which is great news for them. Close in Pine Rivers, with big 13% LNP margin.
6.58pm. Newman gone in Ashgrove, if what I just caught on the screen is any guide. More calls from the ABC computer: Labor to gain Ipswich West, Lytton, Capalaba, Stafford as well as the aforementioned Mirani. Shane Knuth to hold Dalrymple for the KAP.
6.52pm. First booth from Bulimba has a modest but sufficient swing to Labor. This seat swung relatively mildly in 2012, so it stands to reason the swing this time might be below par as well. Labor on track to win Nudgee – no surprise there.
6.50pm. ABC computer now has enough results in from Mirani to say something about it, which is “ALP ahead”.
6.49pm. Antony still grappling with tiny early results.
6.40pm. The very early result in Lockyer looked vaguely interesting for Pauline Hanson, though lack of preferences will surely thwart her.
6.38pm. Over 5% counted in Mirani, on the primary vote least. The 2PP swing is 12.2%, just enough to deliver the seat to Labor, but that’s only from about 600 votes, the 2PP count being some distant behind the primary.
6.35pm. “All over the shop outside of urban areas”, says Possum, who has his act together sooner than I do. “Big indie, KAP and PUP votes in some places, smashing the LNP primary”.
6.33pm. I’m not telling you anything here you wouldn’t already know, but for the record, Leroy Lynch relates the exit polling in comment. Usual story for the Galaxy state poll: it would only be of use if we knew what seats, and what the swing was. But clearly Newman is gone in Ashgrove, and the whole show looks like being worse than expected for the LNP.
6.26pm. So there are exit polls, and they show frankly astounding result for Labor. Perhaps this means the Ashgrove debacle has driven late-deciders to Labor in their droves. I suspect there is at least an element of that. But exit polls generally target particular electorates, and are difficult to read if you don’t know which ones or how they’ve gone about it.
6.25pm. Otherwise, it’s the usual early count story of tiny booths coming in from rural electorates.
6.23pm. I’ll say this much: Ben Hopper doesn’t look like he’s going to do much in Condamine, so mark that one down for the LNP.
6.15pm. Polls closed 15 minutes ago. I’ve been distracted for the past hour or so, but I understand the exit polls were interesting. More on that shortly. I see a booth from Warrego is in, but there’ll be nothing worth discussing for at least half an hour.
[Didn’t peter wellington support Labor in 98?
surely he will do the same again]
From his radio interview, he would be likely to go with a party with more seats to increase stability in the Parliament. Now that Newman is gone, it is possible he would even support LNP if they were in that position.
KAP are against asset sales so they would more likely support Labor unless the loss of Newman gives LNP the excuse to drop that signature policy.
the abc computer has labor back at 44 with the lap on 39.
its a correction.
Huh. I wonder which seat was corrected.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/queensland-election-2015-truss-says-blame-unions-not-knighthood/story-fnr8rfrw-1227203735589
Hah! 🙂
1098
There is an outside chance of a new Victorian election this year, if the PUP candidate`s challenge is successful. I would expect a swing to the ALP if that were to happen.
WarrenPeace
[Swamprat
Your Liberal Party bullshit is becoming tedious]
I disagree….it has gone way beyond tedious.
Unitary State @ 1095 – the ABC computer is doing something very odd in the seat of Gaven. I suspect Labor is still on 43.
[Great result, since I prefer minority governments, but I’d hate to see a media beat-up yet again against “hung parliaments”. I’m willing to wager that they’ll be quiet if it was the LNP leading one.]
If nobody can remember the Borbidge government, which began when an independent got the balance of power mid-term, then a hung parliament can’t really be the end of the world.
From ABC24 I got the impression the independents are most likely to go with stability (party with more seats).
I think Antony leant towards giving Maryborough to ALP as IND still has someway to bridge gap to 2nd (ALP) Either way its not going to LNP.
Both Chris and Mark Kenny have trotted out the LNP will pull it back on pre-polls line. Mark only a few hours ago – going so far as to say that the LNP would retain government! I understood that unlike in Victoria last week most pre-polls will have been counted tonight.
Queensland – LNP super-majority one day, Labor the next!
Tonight has really stuffed up my preparations for work travel tomorrow!
Tom @1104
[There is an outside chance of a new Victorian election this year, if the PUP candidate`s challenge is successful. I would expect a swing to the ALP if that were to happen.]
In the unlikely chance that the court actually awards them the challenge, wouldn’t there just be an upper house election in that region? I don’t think (correct me if I’m wrong) any of the early voting polls are close enough to change results in most other areas.
I know what @1079 means about Mount Ommaney; at one stage quite late it was just about being given to the ALP, and then it suddenly switched to not being in doubt for the LNP. Maybe a computing error somewhere?
mimhoff @1107
It seems hardly anyone remembers Borbidge. He was the last case (before Victoria) of a one term (or half term?) premier wasn’t he?
[Both Chris and Mark Kenny have trotted out the LNP will pull it back on pre-polls line. Mark only a few hours ago – going so far as to say that the LNP would retain government! I understood that unlike in Victoria last week most pre-polls will have been counted tonight.]
Strange thinking because the polls improved marginally for LNP as the campaign progressed so the prepoll votes would be from a time which may have favoured ALP slightly more.
I think the prepoll voter population has changed from the well-to-do voters who will be away on holidays on election day to workers who have to work on the Saturday.
Frickeg @1113
After 10 or 11pm on an election night, it is unreasonable for a seat to go from 50.7-40.3 to 49.1-50.9. It just does not happen. It can’t be right.
@ 1110
For “week” read “year” and replace the final full stop with a question mark. Certainly, Antony Green seemed pretty certain that most pre-polls were being counted tonight.
[ratsak 1089
I’d say the lesson is that Murdoch can still hurt a Labor government badly if enough people have forgotten why they voted the Libs out.
But Murdoch can’t help a Lib government once people get a taste of them and remember why they never really wanted them.]
Yep, Murdoch got tied to Abbott with the “Kick them out” headlines and photo-shopping of his papers front pages. I assume he decided he only had a few more elections to influence left in him, so went the whole hog.
Now it will be interesting to see if he want’s to be seen to influence the LNP leadership. After that the only way he can be interesting is if he puts down the LNP. “Murdoch Supports LNP” is a taken and no longer has much influence or interest.
The ECQ result for Gaven is crap as they have notionally distributed the LNP preferences even thought Sid Cramp has the most primary votes. This is probably giving the ABC computer conniptions.
@1106; yes, there’s something weird going on, but it should be 43-40-3-3. Labor needs two of Mansfield, Maryborough and Whitsunday for majority government. I really don’t know how likely that is. So the options at this point are:
Really though we can rely on Maryborough not being LNP, so the LNP cannot get more than 42. So I don’t think KAP will be needed, although Labor may want them anyway; Labor will either need no one (if they win 2 or 3), just Wellington (if they win Maryborough but not the others), or Wellington and Foley (if anything else happens).
Yes, I think the prepolls were included in the count tonight. However I suspect the declaration votes were not counted tonight and I think there will be a lot more of them than usual as that was the way to vote if you didn’t present ID at the booth.
Re 1120, got distracted halfway through and ended up writing a different comment than I thought I was going to.
Re 1116, I agree there must have been a mistake somewhere, but surely it’s more likely there was a mistake found that has now been fixed than the other way round? ECQ certainly has the 50.9 to LNP thing going.
Except now the ABC computer has changed again. It’s still got the Gaven mistake, but has now given Maryborough to the ALP and pulled Ferny Grove back in doubt (giving 44 again).
Whitsunday and Mansfield have swapped, with Mansfield now having ALP ahead and Whitsunday LNP.
A bunch of LNP seats now pulled out and listed as “LNP ahead”, namely Caloundra (!), Mount Ommaney and Redlands, and as “LNP likely”, namely Albert, Glass House and Southport.
The ABC computer now has 44 Labor, 33 LNP and a final prediction of 48-38 in favour of Labor. How did that happen all of a sudden??
I think what’s happened is that the ABC has turned off predictive software, and also upped the required margin to call a seat (anything below 1.5% is now “in doubt XX ahead”, and below 2% “likely”). I’m not seeing the 48-38 prediction though – that seems impossible.
1112
The challenge it to the entire election based on the wording of the electoral act and the actions of the VEC. The in-electorate pre-poll is larger than the margin in most to all seats and I believe it is the case that the Court is not allowed to take the political composition of the votes into account (that is certainly the case at Commonwealth level) for secret ballot reasons. That means any seat where the in-electorate pre-poll exceeds the margin of victory, there has to be a new election if the challenge succeeds. There is the prospect that some of the safest seats might escape the invalidation of their writs for the Assembly but still have to go to the polls for the Council.
Frickeg @1125
It was saying that a moment ago, but now has it off
Haha, classic. I think it’s probably best to sleep on it now, folks—things like this happened randomly in the Victorian election and no doubt others too, probably the result of some rejigging of the computers at the ALP or ECQ.
Haha, classic. I think it’s probably best to sleep on it now, folks—things like this happened randomly in the Victorian election and no doubt others too, probably the result of some rejigging of the computers at the ABC or ECQ.
Jolyon Wagg/WarrenPeace
[WarrenPeace
Swamprat
Your Liberal Party bullshit is becoming tedious
I disagree….it has gone way beyond tedious.]
How weird that you think that anyone who criticises the self-indulgent vacous careerism of born-to-rule ALP “worthies”, is a Liberal????
It is of coures a reason why a party whose real reason for existence is to shovel public wealth to private pockets can so easily beat you.
Interestingly the BC now has the libs on 33 with a whole lot of seats in doubt. The current list being:
Albert LNP 11.9 Likely LNP retain
Caloundra LNP 21.2 In Doubt LNP ahead
Ferny Grove LNP 9.5 Likely ALP gain
Glass House LNP 20.4 Likely LNP retain
Mansfield LNP 11.1 In Doubt ALP ahead
Mount Ommaney LNP 16.5 In Doubt LNP ahead
Redlands QLD LNP 21.1 In Doubt LNP ahead
Southport QLD LNP 14.7 Likely LNP retain
Whitsunday QLD LNP 10.7 In Doubt LNP ahead
On reloading, I can see the predicted numbers 48-38, but it’s a quick flash before being replaced by dashes.
Must be some gremlin in the code, and ABC just hiding it till they can have a proper look at it later on.
@1128, but this kind of minutiae is the stuff that we live for! We only get this kind of thing every now and again … 🙂
I do find it interesting, though, that apart from Ferny Grove and the genuinely in-doubt seats, Labor has won everything with a margin of over 2%, while the LNP has a bunch of seats under that. A bit of a buffer for Labor for next time.
[The ABC computer now has 44 Labor, 33 LNP and a final prediction of 48-38 in favour of Labor. How did that happen all of a sudden??]
Probably because Antony turned off the swing results modelling, so it went from being based on booth-matched projections to raw results.
Redlands came back to being in doubt for the LNP all of a sudden. how?
Nothing’s really changed, it’s just that without predictive software the ABC computer is being more cautious.
See above. The LNP would have done better on that seat on postals and absents in 2012. The computer was factoring that in before, and isn’t now.
interesting how pre polls and postals won’t necessarily favour the LNP this time around, Whitsunday and Mansfield may well be both won by Labor.
My prediction last night was 47 for Labor, 39 for the LNP and 3 others, how close i was to the mark
Apart from that Gaven mistake, which is happening because the ECQ has suddenly switched to a ALP-Douglas count. Someone needs to go in and fix that manually before tomorrow morning or there will be a lot of confusion!
Swamprat
[How weird that you think that anyone who criticises the self-indulgent vacous careerism of born-to-rule ALP “worthies”, is a Liberal????
It is of coures a reason why a party whose real reason for existence is to shovel public wealth to private pockets can so easily beat you.]
Sorry…I only really meant to endorse the “tedious” part of WarrenPeace’s characterisation.
So, late counting: Gaven, Mansfield, Maryborough, Pumicestone, Whitsunday.
Others?
[The challenge it to the entire election]
The court will find that the entire election was fair.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-reels-from-triple-blow-mal-brough-queensland-and-new-poll-heap-pressure-on-pm-20150131-132x5u.html
Lets face it, neither the current ALP or LNP would survive at their current level in a political system that wasn’t a sheltered workshop: preventing eal competition..
I mean Abbott, Newman, Rudd, Gillard, Bligh, Newman are the products of a political sheltered workshop…..
no one expects the LNP to be anything but hypocritical but it is really “in your face” that they want their political power protected from “competition” but want the poorest unemployed to starve for 6 months……
[Lets face it, neither the current ALP or LNP would survive at their current level in a political system that wasn’t a sheltered workshop: preventing eal competition..]
QLD has optional preferential. If the Greens were effective they could’ve elected 20 MPs tonight given the mood against Newman.
Jolyon
[Sorry…I only really meant to endorse the “tedious” part of WarrenPeace’s characterisation.]
I understand.
Anyone who wants the Labor movement to recover its traditional purpose is tedious.
ShowsOn
The Greens are generally not effective.
But the ALP has abandoned positions that the Greens are championing. The ALP can hardly complain.
Martin B @1141 – I don’t think Gaven or Pumicestone are in doubt. Mansfield, Maryborough and Whitsunday are the big three.
ShowsOn @1145 – oh please. The Greens have no base in Queensland. Replace “Greens” with “PUP”, and you might have a point.
night all… lets enjoy the Newman LNP defeat.
[ShowsOn
The Greens are generally not effective.
But the ALP has abandoned positions that the Greens are championing. The ALP can hardly complain.]
The Greens showed they weren’t serious about this election when Adam Bandt rocked up to a press conference announcing their policy of introducing daylight saving to QLD while holding a toy curtain.