BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Public relaxation over summer, the quirks of a shallow pool of poll results, actual improvement in the government’s standing – whatever the cause, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has again recorded movement in favour of the Coalition.

Week two of BludgerTrack for 2015 adds only the latest Essential Research result to last week’s numbers from Essential and Roy Morgan. This is pretty thin gruel so far as poll aggregation goes, but nonetheless, let it be noted that BludgerTrack finds the latest result to be a lot more like the Morgan poll than Essential’s strong result for Labor last week, and thus shifts a little further the Coalition’s way. The 0.4% move on two-party preferred translates into three gains for the Coalition on the seat projection, namely one seat each in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,676 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

  1. [Gecko

    Posted Tuesday, January 27, 2015 at 6:59 pm | Permalink

    Barney

    For me Morrison is the one I’d want.

    He’s the one who is most similar to Abbott. He’s inflexible, pig-headed and has shown a desire to run everything.

    He is also commanding, intelligent, across detail, politically savvy, can argue the point and is regarded (in house) as the most successful/competent Minister the government has.
    ]

    Maybe, but is he willing to stand up to the right and temper their policy approach?

    Or is he in denial that it’s the sales job not the policies that are the problem.

  2. I think it’s a fair call that JulieB may be dropped into leadership if Tony’s fingers can be prised off the edge of the cliff. It’s a sorta tradition to give a female the poisoned chalice.

  3. Ratsac – Yes Mr Morrison is actually quite personable. But as Ian Moss sang in Tuckers daughter “he’s a man I don’t care to defy”

  4. Barney

    For me Morrison is the one I’d want.

    He’s the one who is most similar to Abbott. He’s inflexible, pig-headed and has shown a desire to run everything.

    He is also commanding, intelligent, across detail, politically savvy, can argue the point and is regarded (in house) as the most successful/competent Minister the government ha

    ——you’re not omly one to say this here but really i beg to differ … morrison likes to be in control and is lucky to date – he is very thin skinned when challenged and would be a sitting duck in high beam of PM – he is much like abbott and with same loopy or non policy – he would be be very very vulnerable for all sorts of reasons and short lived

  5. i find it disappointment to read the increasing pragmatic strain on this site – discussion of morrison seems to lack indignation of what he represents ….

  6. Patrick Bateman@2192

    Gecko

    Is it wrong for a person who has been a bigot to, in a position of leadership, denounce bigotry? Is it wrong for a person who has struggled with fidelity to espouse the virtues of a strong marriage and home? Am I wrong as a father to guide my sons on a more virtuous path than I took myself, and not expose my reasons?


    It’s not “wrong” to take a different position to the one you have lived yourself. It’s a sign of growth in some people.

    It is, however, very wrong to pretend to be a paragon of virtue while lecturing others about not doing the very things you have secretly done yourself.

    I.e. if you have cheated on your spouse and later want to espouse ‘family values’, you need to confess your sins too. No problem with the ‘trust me, I’ve been there, you don’t want to go there’ line. Huge problems with the moralising while doing the thing you tell others not to do routine.

    Guess its all in how its done I suppose. I maintain, that telling the family of an indiscretion is one thing… but to tell the general public as well? I’m not sure. MP’s seldom if ever intrude directly on the privacy of individuals and they are entitled to the same treatment in return. I don’t need to know if an MP is gay, or has aborted or smoked hash. All I need to know is where they stand and why… the rest is up to them. It’s an interesting ethical question nevertheless. I imagine quite a few struggle with it in public life.

  7. http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6044-executions-andrew-chan-myuran-sukumaran-january-2015-201501270609
    [Australians think Andrew Chan & Myuran Sukumaran should be executed

    January 27 2015
    Topic: Public Opinion Special Poll

    Finding No. 6044 – This special snap SMS Morgan Poll was conducted with a representative cross-section of 2,123 Australians over the weekend of January 23-27, 2014.

    A special snap SMS Morgan Poll today shows a small majority of Australians (52%, down 1% since August 2009) say that Australians convicted of drug trafficking in another country and sentenced to death should be executed while 48% (up 1%) don’t. Of Australians, a larger majority (62%) said the Australian Government should not do more to stop the execution of Myuran Sukumaran and Andrew Chan while 38% say the Australian Government should do more to stop the execution. Today’s special SMS Morgan Poll was conducted with a cross-section of 2,123 Australians over the last few days, January 23-27, 2015.]
    Lots of detail

  8. keyman

    abbott was famed for being personable – what on earth does this mean – he has been priveleged to be in that border job – otherwise he is non event … risen too high rleady only one way to go

  9. leroy

    yep where basically a pretty right way unreformed immature people for all touting about australian way and egalitarian – a lot to learn ,,, paper thin public values, spoilt, we are underprepared for the hard yards when they come

  10. [ He’d be a formidable opponent that would need to be beaten because he’d be unlikely to self destruct. ]

    I suspect he may fail on the economics. That’s the thing with the Libs at the moment. change the leadership fine, but they then have to face up to the failure of their economic management.

    Maybe Morrison as “hard man” could do what they need to as far as revenue measures in the Budget?? But i suspect that he would continue the more traditional Liberal path they are on now of beating up on everyone but the wealthy and reinforce the “unfairness” theme they have been building since the 2014 Budget came down.

  11. [geoffrey

    Posted Tuesday, January 27, 2015 at 7:27 pm | Permalink

    Barney

    For me Morrison is the one I’d want.

    He’s the one who is most similar to Abbott. He’s inflexible, pig-headed and has shown a desire to run everything.

    He is also commanding, intelligent, across detail, politically savvy, can argue the point and is regarded (in house) as the most successful/competent Minister the government ha

    ——you’re not omly one to say this here but really i beg to differ … morrison likes to be in control and is lucky to date – he is very thin skinned when challenged and would be a sitting duck in high beam of PM – he is much like abbott and with same loopy or non policy – he would be be very very vulnerable for all sorts of reasons and short lived
    ]

    I agree.

    This paragraph was added by Gecko,

    “He is also commanding, intelligent, across detail, politically savvy, can argue the point and is regarded (in house) as the most successful/competent Minister the government ha”

  12. geoffrey@2208

    i find it disappointment to read the increasing pragmatic strain on this site – discussion of morrison seems to lack indignation of what he represents ….

    Sorry Geoffrey. No indignation lost here … we’re just ruminating. A complex puzzle has many sides.

  13. [ i find it disappointment to read the increasing pragmatic strain on this site – discussion of morrison seems to lack indignation of what he represents …. ]

    Dont get me wrong geoffery, Morriscum is a true skid-mark on the underpants of the Australian body politic. But in terms of the Liberal leadership its how idiot Liberal voters perceive him that’s important. And the Libs are having to face up to some bitter medicine at the moment that may well induce some rational pragmatism they haven’t been displaying for a while.

    I think that regardless of Morriscum or Mesma replacing Abbott the ALP is still in a fairly strong position with the potential to maintain that through to 2016. I’d agree with the sentiment expressed upthread that a real threat would be Turnbull getting the gig closer to an election where we would be at the polls before the shine comes off him.

    Would be interesting to see what Morrison as PM would do with WorkChoices? We know he’s salivating over being a prick with Welfare.

  14. geoffrey
    [

    abbott was famed for being personable – what on earth does this mean –]
    Agreeing……..well pretending to agree, with everything the person they are talking to says.

  15. Steve777

    [Bernard Keane wrote about Asbestos Woman’s visit to Sauron to receive her Ring of Power]
    I believe the traditional process when meeting Rupes is for the meetee to kiss the ring of power.

  16. Gecko
    Posted Tuesday, January 27, 2015 at 7:39 pm | PERMALINK
    geoffrey@2208
    i find it disappointment to read the increasing pragmatic strain on this site – discussion of morrison seems to lack indignation of what he represents ….
    Sorry Geoffrey. No indignation lost here … we’re just ruminating. A complex puzzle has many sides.

    —- thanks gecko … in puzzle does thought of labor victory this side of june enter the possibilities? that doesn’t really who takes reins …

  17. Morrison scares me, and he should not be underestimated, particularly in the short term.

    But I also don’t think he is as tough as he thinks he is. Otherwise why the need to hide his departments workings when border security minister?

    Is he going to try the same approach in the social services department? One thing to grab a few cheap dirty electoral points from kicking a handful of darkie moozi boaties, behind the shed and out of sight. Quite another to get away with kicking your own aged, disabled, and unemployed citizens en masse. Won’t be able to hide that for long.

    I suspect when placed under serious scrutiny and pressure he is not going to prove so resilient or flexible in the long term. His arguments are rarely more than slippery rhetoric and slimy smears and sneers, and he is certainly not going to get away with the contemptuous attitude he has had towards the media and accountability so far. Pretty clear that the public are fed up with that whole schtick from pollies.

    Stills scares me though, he can be a real nasty thug. Every bit as bad as Abbott on many matters, maybe worse on some.

    Will the Libs pick him on the basis of at least trying to get as much of their hard right shit through before the next election as they can, and just tie everything down in contracts with onerous escape penalties, in the expectation of then losing?

    I don’t believe the Libs have much choice but to move back a decent step or three towards the centre and fight there, if they wish to remain electorally competitive, and Morrison does not seem the person to successfully do that for them.

  18. [i find it disappointment to read the increasing pragmatic strain on this site – discussion of morrison seems to lack indignation of what he represents ….]

    Would that help you beat him in an election?

  19. [I have had Galaxy AND Reachtel poll me in the last 30 min]
    Crikey. To be so popular with multiple “poll dancers” you must tick many many demographic boxes .

  20. [Would that help you beat him in an election?]

    Exactly. I have no time for Morrison, but remember as Meher Baba has noted he is actually one of the moderates in the party. He’s ruthless so he’ll sell out to do what needs doing and appease the hard right as he needs to, but I have no doubt he could present a sufficiently credible and acceptably moderate face to whatever nation destroying policies he’s promoting to be a real danger if he ever were to get to the top. Remember he only has to be moderate enough to keep most of the swinging middle that fell for Abbott’s BS on side, he’s not trying (nor has any need) to appeal to Greens voters.

  21. [—- thanks gecko … in puzzle does thought of labor victory this side of june enter the possibilities? that doesn’t really who takes reins …]

    I doubt anything will happen this side of June, Geoffrey… perhaps a leadership change… but even that is conjecture on my part. Nor do I think the Libs would contemplate anything but running full term (not least because of the polls). So unfortunately it seems we’re stuck with them until 2016.

  22. Leroy Lynch 2211 – I find these polls done in these circumstances a bit sad. Particularly when they will get picked up second hand by the Indonesian media and used to further their government’s argument for execution. If I remember rightly there were similar polls for Barlow and Chambers nearly 30 years ago.

    Morgan could probably poll the Australian public on whether people thought all drug traffickers in Australian Jails should be executed and get a similar result.

  23. Leroy Lynch @ 2211

    I find that surprising and appalling.

    I would have thought most Australians would oppose state/political rights to kill.

    Though I suppose as our nation becomes more Americanised the less value human life has.

  24. “@david_manne: High Court will tomorrow rule on whether detention & transfer of 157 Tamil #asylum seekers held on high seas for near 1 month was lawful.”

  25. I haven’t been buying into this dual citizen thing at all, but can you imagine how convenient it would be to the Government if Tony still owed allegiance to Old Blighty and was disqualified from Parliament?

    It would be another BOF Grange of Convenience moment.

  26. Rocket @ 2241

    I hope you are wrong but I fear you may be right. Abbott seems to be the only arrow in the ALP quiver.

    One would expect there to be massive opportunities to counter the irrational, anti-science, crony capitalists of the LNP from a rational left-wing party.

    Apparently not.

  27. Rocket Rocket

    [If I remember rightly there were similar polls for Barlow and Chambers nearly 30 years ago.]
    Exackery , the polls for reintroducing flogging for criminals received similar support. The cries of “bring back flogging” were high rotation on shoutback radio back then. Apparently the stopping of such a practice caused all the social problems.

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