BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Public relaxation over summer, the quirks of a shallow pool of poll results, actual improvement in the government’s standing – whatever the cause, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has again recorded movement in favour of the Coalition.

Week two of BludgerTrack for 2015 adds only the latest Essential Research result to last week’s numbers from Essential and Roy Morgan. This is pretty thin gruel so far as poll aggregation goes, but nonetheless, let it be noted that BludgerTrack finds the latest result to be a lot more like the Morgan poll than Essential’s strong result for Labor last week, and thus shifts a little further the Coalition’s way. The 0.4% move on two-party preferred translates into three gains for the Coalition on the seat projection, namely one seat each in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,676 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

  1. Leroy, Rocket Rocket and Swamprat,

    Sadly I am not suprised by the blood lust in a small majority of the Australian community. But publishing polls like that now is really irresponsible.

    The Jokowi administration in Indonesia could have left the unofficial moratorium on the death penalty in place, but now seem determined to go ahead with a massacre as one of their priorties.

    They are not the only nation it use the death penalty, but the fact that they are regressing on this is a big concern for human rights in the region.

    These things can be catching!

  2. cud chewer@2252

    Anyone else think that if Tony were challenged he wouldn’t hesitate to threaten people?

    I’ve no doubt he’ll try. But bullies tend to bully best when they’ve got support. His is rapidly evaporating.

  3. cc Why thousands? Isn’t that overkill?

    Most single electorate polls are a few hundred, and unless they show a massive difference don’t really achieve much. I think they want to get a 2000-3000 sample because if it shows Newman is behind say 52-48 that would be big news as the margin of error is much smaller.

  4. Interesting scenario in Ashgrove. If the leader loses and the party wins – who leads the state? If polls indicate this looks likely, it has to favour the ALP, surely?

  5. On the apparent support for the execution of the Bali traffickers, I wonder if it’s a bit more subtle than simply a maniifestation of the hang ’em and flog ’em brigade.

    Looking at the questions in detail, I think they could be read as asking whether or not Australians, convicted of a capital offence in a death penalty country, should be treated differently from the country’s own citizens. Answering that in the affirmative is a rather different thing from supporting the death penalty for drug traffickers per se.

    For the record, I oppose the death penalty in all cases. However, it appears that the Indonesians don’t. Nobody who pisses in their pool has any automatic right to expect to be treated any differently from the locals.

  6. I may regret this, but why would giving people with a high Marginal Propensity to Save (like the German Middle Class) cause them to save less?

    If they have more money won’t they save more?

    You’re thinking of the national savings as though it has something to do with thrifty choices by households. It doesn’t. That is Michael Pettis’s point. Germany’s excessive national savings is the result of government policy which deliberately reduces discretionary household income. Same deal in China.

  7. guytaur

    [Aging, sleep deprivation, anxiety, alcohol, distraction — anything that can affect physical and cognitive health will increase the frequency of “brain farts.” ]
    Tones scores a full house.

  8. [Looking at the questions in detail, I think they could be read as asking whether or not Australians, convicted of a capital offence in a death penalty country, should be treated differently from the country’s own citizens.]

    This is a very good point. Support for the death penalty has in fact markedly declined since the 1980s. According to the Australian Election Study series, 60% of respondents in 1987 agreed the death penalty should be brought back, reducing to 48.5% in 2013.

  9. I doubt anything will happen this side of June, Geoffrey… perhaps a leadership change… but even that is conjecture on my part. Nor do I think the Libs would contemplate anything but running full term (not least because of the polls). So unfortunately it seems we’re stuck with them until 2016.

    —-wasn’t there speculation earlier that like gillard there would have to be an election … if leader changed in these circumstances —–

  10. if karma or ethics means anything then liberal needs to be punished heavily for their support and use of abbott —- esp for their gross anti climate stance … and the damage to economy (and dare they talk of economy) and good government …. sometime i feel electorate does provide balance if so this has yet to come ….

  11. Hard to believe but we may have a change of PM this year. I think if it does happen ( and mid year seems the likely point) the Libs will need an abdication and not a coup – most likely Abbott taking an ambassadorship and withdrawing by consent. Whilst there at it they may need to do Hockey as well.
    If it is done it has to be Turnbull in my opinion.

  12. geoffrey @ 2266

    [if karma or ethics means anything then liberal needs to be punished heavily for their support and use of abbott …]

    I assume “karma” means a belief in an innate law of “justice” in the universe!!!!

    Hahaha…..that is another example of an “opiate”.

  13. William

    Yes Ashgrove. In 2012 I was polled regularly

    Out of interest does anyone know/done research on translating positive indications of voting and the final vote. In Ashgrove, the car waving positive response is high – ranging from 15% -30% of ALL vehicles. What % of voters are willing to indicate voting intention?????

  14. victoria:

    Abbott’s Knightmare has been front and centre in the news now for 2 days in a row.

    Am loving seeing Liberals distancing themselves from Abbott’s decision. Even Downer was quick to emphasise the point that the Phil the Greek honour had nothing to do with his position.

  15. esj 2268 – I just can’t see Tony abdicating. Then again I didn’t think Thatcher would resign either.

    My prediction is a lot of bluster when the party room meets but no real action. If the polls fail to turn and the Coalition stay behind all year (possible) then in November there will be a two-stage challenge – first someone with no hope of winning runs (a la Kevin Andrews in 2009) to “count the guns” and a few days later the real challenger steps forward (with a deputy) saying they “never ever wanted to challenge but circumstances forced them etc etc”

    Who that pairing would be is anyone’s guess. But I think with about ten months to an election and a “summer honeymoon”, they would probably win and prevent a historically unlikely one term federal government. Which is why they would win the ballot (in fact like 2010 there may in the end be no ballot) because all the Liberal MPs would be looking at the prospect of losing their seats, or serving in opposition.

  16. [Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 21m 21 minutes ago
    I am hearing – from both sides of the major party divide – that the Queensland election may be closer than some people think…]

  17. Actually what is sad confessions is that it looks like we are going to have nearly a decade of dysfunctional govt in this country 2007-2015.

  18. “@abcgrandstand: AUSSIES INTO THE FINAL: The @Socceroos are into the #AC2015 final against South Korea after beating UAE 2-0 in Newcastle. #AUSvUAE”

  19. victoria:

    Shorten said as much as needed to be said: honouring prince philip with our nation’s highest recognition just shows how out of touch with Australians Abbott is.

  20. ESJ:

    The Liberals know what they have to do because they saw Labor deal with its own rotten apple. Let Abbott lead them to an election loss, having completely traduced his own credibility along the way. He retires. His flunkies go with him. Problem solved.

  21. Well I think if Abbott can’t put together some deals in the senate he won’t make it. He’s not a wealthy man presumably an ambassadorship would be a welcome escape a la mike Rann. London would be appropriate – ironically downer would have to take one for the liberal team.

  22. vic

    [What is even more hilarious is that team Labor have not needed to say a word]

    What’s that phrase again?

    Hoist by his own petard.

    The Prime Drongo should be given an ambassadorship to Idiotstan.

    To make room for Scott “I’m trif’c when surrounded by army personnel” Moss’n.

  23. esj 2277 “political stability” is all relative, but yes

    1949-1966 stable – 1 PM (RM)in 17 years
    1966-1975 unstable – 6 PMs (HH,JG,JM,WM,GW,MF) in 9 years
    1975-2007 stable – 4 PMs (MF,BH,PK,JH) in 32 years
    2007-2015 unstable – 4 PMs (KR,JG,KR,TA) in 8 years

    I know I put MF twice, but the 6 in 9 years looks “better” (ie worse)

  24. Confessions/William

    There clearly is a BIG swing on. My impression is distorted because i am in Ashgrove where Kate Jones is popular and Newman is copping the flack for the whole government. So I am NOT sure that the swing is statwide:

    BUT

    Women in particular hate the guy – might be nurses public servants etc but he is loathed

    There are lots of anecdotal accounts of former LNP campaign workers voting Labor

    As might be expected unions workers, bus drivers, fireman POLICE!!!, truckies are supportive

    BUT
    Men in 4WD are angry and hostile.
    Tradies are by and large hostile.

  25. ESJ

    I agree it has to be Turnbull. The LNP needs to get away from Abbott’s Tea Party Policies

    The other contenders do not seem to have the agenda for that

  26. Well you may be right confessions , but to throw away government may not be palatable. For a lot of the Libs this time in government will be there last crack. What would someone like ian McFarlane ( who won’t do opposition) do?

  27. I mentioned it earlier, somewhat lightheartedly, but I’m starting to wonder more seriously why Tony Abbott has not produced the evidence of his renunciation of British citizenship. It would not be hard to find. It should be recorded in British records.

    Would it be possible that he has not, and his party could hold it over his head to get his resignation if push comes to shove? In other words, if they tap him on the shoulder and he does not get the message pronto, could the brains trust of the Liberal Party threaten to expose his situation, resulting in him being disqualified from Parliament and possibly losing his entitlements under s44 of the constitution?

  28. [Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 10m 10 minutes ago
    Because of the size of the majority Newman has, I suspect Labor would need 52.5-53 per cent of the two party vote to win enough seats.]

    What’s the seat count again? Labor has something like single digit numbers?

    I think PvO is right to infer it’s a huge ask for voters to tip out Newman’s govt after a first term when the LNP holds such a massive majority. Newman hanging on in his seat OTOH could well be a different story.

  29. The biggest question of the moment of Ozpol:
    is Abbott so oblivious of his limits that he thinks he can 3WS through everything, or
    is he so aware of his limits that he is doing WTF while he can.

  30. Edwina StJohn
    Posted Tuesday, January 27, 2015 at 9:50 pm | PERMALINK
    Actually what is sad confessions is that it looks like we are going to have nearly a decade of dysfunctional govt in this country 2007-2015.

    —- no not fsir to include GFcrisis – first 2-3 years labor were business as normal despite that – no dysfunction started mid 2010 and as much greens/labor fault as liberals although continuation is certainly in lob camp ….

  31. DTR:

    FWIW my view from the other side of the country is that the Newman govt has run a poor campaign. ‘Strong this’, and ‘strong that’, (even ‘stong something else’ in an unfortunate spelling SNAFU) has all the hallmarks of the monotonous ‘moving forward’ we all love to hate. How dreary. And that’s without all the federal cock ups encroaching.

    But the LNP has such a huge parliamentary majority to be overcome all in one hit. It’s a big ask.

  32. Edwina

    [Well I think if Abbott can’t put together some deals in the senate he won’t make it. He’s not a wealthy man presumably an ambassadorship would be a welcome escape a la mike Rann. London would be appropriate – ironically downer would have to take one for the liberal team.]

    I hate this assumed acceptance of venality/corruption.

    Abbott is totally unsuitable to be an ambassador to anywhere, not even to the Holy See!!!

    Indeed,if there was “karma” he would be unemployable….but of course the rich plutocrats will look after him.

    I suspect he will negotiate a peerage in the House of Lords with Cameron.

  33. [Sorry, now vomiting. Pyne?? Why would Morrison saddle himself with that running joke?? ]

    Looking for a non-NSW moderate, or at least-non crazy, that’s not Bishop.

    Ciobo, Dwyer, seem too far down the pecking order. Hunt and Robb seem no. Frydenberg maybe?

  34. DTT

    so locally in ashgrove there’s a feeling Jones will win?

    Noted looking at the how to vote cards that all other candidates put Newman last. That’s gotta hurt

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