BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Public relaxation over summer, the quirks of a shallow pool of poll results, actual improvement in the government’s standing – whatever the cause, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has again recorded movement in favour of the Coalition.

Week two of BludgerTrack for 2015 adds only the latest Essential Research result to last week’s numbers from Essential and Roy Morgan. This is pretty thin gruel so far as poll aggregation goes, but nonetheless, let it be noted that BludgerTrack finds the latest result to be a lot more like the Morgan poll than Essential’s strong result for Labor last week, and thus shifts a little further the Coalition’s way. The 0.4% move on two-party preferred translates into three gains for the Coalition on the seat projection, namely one seat each in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,676 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

  1. ESJ:

    True. Self interest can be a powerful motivator, esp for those clutching to power in the twilight of their career.

    It’s a rather serendipitous rock and hard place scenario for the Liberals. Do they ditch a clearly unpopular and incompetent first term PM in the hope a replacement could turn things around? Or do they do that and risk replaying Labor’s dramas when it did the same with its own first term PM?

  2. Oh, my feeling in Qld is that not many ‘really’ want the LNP back in but would vote Labor if they were better positioned to govern. I can see one overreach and the LNP will spend a big chunk of the next term trailing the polls

  3. Abbott could probably get a doctor to give him a medical certificate saying that he is unfit for duty until further notice.

    Thousands of doctors would fight each other for the honour.

  4. 2296

    I doubt the UK would want him as a peer. It would be like the Knighthood for Prince Philip politically. Also ordinary peers are unpaid and so Abbott, if his Parliamentary Pension was not enough, would need another source of income.

  5. If Rupert approves he will provide cover and boosting for any new Liberal leader. At least in the Murdoch crapsheets, the new leader will have the sort of clean air that Julia Gillard never had.

  6. dtt – I wrote earlier today how I have managed to have civilised chats with various Lib/Nat/CLP members over the years. I have never met Campbell Newman but he just seems the sort of person who rubs people up the wrong way. And I think Ashgrove will vote him out – hence the massive polling interest.

    And he will not be long mourned by the Ls or the Ns in the LNP. If they still win the election they will be very happy to have a “fresh start”, and they can switch from blaming everything on Anna Bligh to blaming it all on Campbell Newman.

  7. Think on the Latham critique of 2004 – he was spot on about the dysfunctionality of party politics! Maybe it is all broken like he says now!

  8. [Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 14m 14 minutes ago
    If the LNP do find a way to lose, two things will happen: the new party will split and Abbott will be in all sorts of strife…]

    Hard to argue with that.

  9. Abbott would make a reasonable sort of fruit picker. He can probably spot a rotten apple better than most. He gets plenty of practice just looking in the mirror.

    He would find his income disrupted by all the Immigration Department raids but he would understand that the government of the day would need to bastardise people in order to stay in power.

  10. [“Abbott, if his Parliamentary Pension was not enough, would need another source of income”]

    He could follow in the footsteps of his mentor Bob Santamaria and write cranky op-eds in the Australian.

  11. [confessions
    Posted Tuesday, January 27, 2015 at 9:50 pm | PERMALINK
    Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 21m 21 minutes ago
    I am hearing – from both sides of the major party divide – that the Queensland election may be closer than some people think…
    ]

    Which is pretty much what we have been hearing on here over the past week or so. Could be an interesting night on Saturday

  12. Abbott could start with six months on unpaid dole and then he could volunteer to work for the Green Corps. The pay and conditions are something to die for.

  13. I still think the “Queensland is close, honest!” story is wishful thinking on behalf of the media and Labor, and a scare story from the LNP.

  14. Abbott might make a suitable guard in a refugee prison camp, as long as he was supervised at all times.

    Of course he has the unusual compination of needed skills to head up a right wing party that supports irrational policies, homo-phobia, anti-science, mysogeny, and moving public wealth to corrupt mates.

    His best job is obviously to lead the LNP!!!!

  15. Boerwar:

    Surely the best thing Abbott could do as a post politics career is demonstrate how well he ‘gets’ women by being a stay at home partner taking care of the domestic situation and supporting his woman’s career.

  16. Abbott needs to be punished.

    It’s a Catholic thing.

    Too much harmony and his mind turns to the image of a donkey, buckled but braying for every stroke of its master’s skin-ripping whip.

    He will go, the Donkey Martyr. Slightly aroused despite the bleeding.

    And leave a nation to pick up his ungodly pieces.

  17. Labor started with just 7 seats but has won two more with massive swings.

    Trand
    I am feeling positive but I do not want to jinx anything. Also I am bothered by the “Angry Man” syndrome, which Labor MUST address.

    However if street signs and volunteers are any guide then Kate has a very good chance. BUT there are lots of women who WANT to vote for Kate but are being bullied by hubby “angry man.” We still have four days/morning papers!!!!

  18. Boerwar @ 2030:

    I hope you realize that you’re comical in your inconsistency. First, things were all the Greeks’ fault because the national pastime was tax evasion (partly true) and Greeks had to start paying taxes if they wanted to get out of the crisis (more true); now that a Left party has signalled that it’s prepared to actually enforce the tax code as written, it’s all doom, gloom and capital flight. And all Syriza’s fault, of course…and those silly Greeks voting for Un-Serious People.

    Personally, I just think you have it in for anyone to the left of Maggie “Attila the Hen” Thatcher. Christine Milne could take a stroll across Lake Burley Griffin to get to work, and you’d claim it was because she couldn’t swim!

  19. daretotread@2321



    BUT there are lots of women who WANT to vote for Kate but are being bullied by hubby “angry man.” We still have four days/morning papers!!!!

    So you don’t have a secret ballot in Queensland? 😮

  20. Inner Westie@2319

    Abbott needs to be punished.

    It’s a Catholic thing.

    Too much harmony and his mind turns to the image of a donkey, buckled but braying for every stroke of its master’s skin-ripping whip.

    He will go, the Donkey Martyr. Slightly aroused despite the bleeding.

    And leave a nation to pick up his ungodly pieces.

    Holy Crap! Am I in the right place?

  21. fess
    [Surely the best thing Abbott could do as a post politics career is demonstrate how well he ‘gets’ women by being a stay at home partner taking care of the domestic situation and supporting his woman’s career.]

    And doing the ironing, as a Man of Australia.

  22. [As I’ve said before, when Tony Abbott gets into trouble he will reach out to his base on the far right, and that’s why he offered Prince Phillip the knighthood.

    Only right-wingers can even discern what Prince Phillip’s service to Australia has been.

    When he married the then Princess Elizabeth in 1947 the State of Queensland presented 500 cans of pineapple to the happy couple. They must have assumed they were like other war-battered Poms, in need of food aid but reluctant to fork out £10 to come over and work for it. The medallions of the different levels in the Order of Australia look a bit like thin cross-sections of pineapple.

    She has earned her pineapple, or at least been gracious about it – but has he? To ask such a question is to demand accountability, and since when has Tony Abbott been about accountability (oh, you thought because he asked all those questions in opposition …)?

    The award was designed to get lefties upset, as Adam Brereton notes, and only when lefties are upset do people like Tony Abbott know who they are and what they’re about.]
    http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2015/01/earning-your-pineapple.html

    Phil the Greek honour was all about playing to Abbott’s base by trolling those who don’t vote Liberal?

    Surely he and his advisors aren’t that clueless. It’s one thing to go on 2GB and cozy up to Hadley or whoever with the lines of the day, but quite another to play trolling games like awarding Prince Philip a knighthood on Australia Day.

  23. [Edwina StJohn
    Posted Tuesday, January 27, 2015 at 10:43 pm | PERMALINK
    And I thought the Gillardine hate was over the top…….]

    Nah, ya didn’t. You revelled in it.

  24. RR @2275:

    Thatcher didn’t leave willingly; she was tapped on the shoulder. Already, Heseltine had forced her to a second ballot, and the writing was on the wall. She was in tears over the “betrayal”, as I understand.

  25. Geoffrey @ 2264
    [—-wasn’t there speculation earlier that like gillard there would have to be an election … if leader changed in these circumstances —–]

    That was an assumption by some here, based on the rather erroneous expectation the Libs would/should follow Julia’s example of wanting her Prime Minister-ship validated by a poll. The LNP however, are not bound to follow this example and likely won’t with so much of its term still to serve. The 2010 poll was only marginally ahead of time in any case.

  26. Confessions

    [Yes definitely the ironing, now that it’s so much cheaper what with the carbon tax having been abolished]

    The whole Liberal Party should get a collective knighthood for services to ironing!!

  27. Confessions

    [Yes definitely the ironing, now that it’s so much cheaper what with the carbon tax having been abolished]

    The whole Liberal Party should get a collective knighthood for services to ironing!!

  28. is that blood in the water? yep! (and intestines, kidneys, a liver, lungs……can’t see a heart or brain).

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/angry-liberal-backbenchers-consider-meeting-after-tony-abbotts-decision-to-make-prince-philip-a-knight-20150127-12yr5d.html

    am yet to see the pundits declaring his tenure as ‘terminal’ but it can only be days away.

    even Shanahan is basically saying he’d be rooted of the libs had any talent
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/tony-abbott-blind-to-the-damage-of-prince-philip-knighthood/story-e6frg6n6-1227197575747

    I predict newman losing his seat along with 30 or so of his colleagues will be the final straw.

    abbott defeating rudd may have been the sweetest victory of all after all. rudd gone and the LNP looking stuffed for a long time to come unless they go back to bishop/turnbull and moderates. In their zealous aim to ape the US tea party they forgot that Australia does not have nearly as many anti-government, anti welfare (even the poor – and some left of centre on most issues types – in the US have been so indoctrinated against ‘socialism’/’socialised medicine’ that they will votes against things that they would benefit from), fundamentalist hicks as the US. I still hope they party will split into a far right party and a liberal democrat centrist party – the problem being is that the far right party will be the best funded and the LDP will be a rump from the current party.

  29. ESJ @2331:

    I’m surprised you could say that with a straight face. You were reveling in the anti-Gillard hate, some of it extremely misogynistic in nature.

    At least most of us are reserving our venom for the Lying Friar’s words and deeds, not his gender.

  30. [Too much harmony and his mind turns to the image of a donkey, buckled but braying for every stroke of its master’s skin-ripping whip.

    He will go, the Donkey Martyr. Slightly aroused despite the bleeding.]

    Wtf..??

  31. As others have pointed out, it is disappointing that the whole Sir Prince thing has taken attention away from Rosie Batty. The murder of her son Luke at junior cricket training a year ago was so public and so shocking. It resonated through the “cricket community” and society at large. I’m sure people in Tyabb must think of it every time they go past that cricket oval.

    And for us in Melbourne we remember Thursday Jan 29th will be the sixth anniversary of little Darcey Freeman’s death, thrown off the West Gate bridge by her own father, on the morning that she was to start school in prep. For me this is a reminder at the start of each school year how precious our children are.

    As a society we have a long way to go. All the best to Rosie Batty on her mission to change our nation.

  32. SF @2342:

    My big concern is this: What if Abbott does get rolled?

    We’ll have a shiny, repackaged “new” Coalition (same policies, but better salespersons), being boosted at every turn by the right-wing media. They may be able to pull the wool over Australians’ eyes for another term.

    I want them gone, the sooner the better, ejected from the seats of power to slink ignominiously off onto the ash-heap of history amid a chorus of jeers and heckling, a sad, sorry and pathetic little footnote to Australia’s story.

    And even that’s better than they deserve, as people -or- politicians.

  33. matt 2336 – I know, but I was still surprised she didn’t go out in a ballot, just to force her opponents to stand up. Probably loyalty to her party. Apparently not unlike Menzies who was also tapped on the shoulder and told that Holt would be PM with or without Menzies’ “retirement”.

  34. RR:

    Personally I think once the whole Abbott Knightmare thing moves on Batty will be able to use her award more strategically, as previous AOTY winners have done.

  35. [I imagine that all capital and income that can be shifted has been shifted. Any capital that can fly has taken flight. Any mobile rich persons are gone or will shortly follow.

    The rich greeks got that way by not paying taxes. They are not going to sit around while SYRIZA strips them of THEIR ill-gotten loot. Tax payments, such as they were, fell before the election as people realized that SYRIZA was going to form government.

    SYRIZA has apparently signalled that it wants the institutional reforms (including the building of a real tax collection capacity) back on the table.

    SYRIZA is also going to open the social spending tap, immediately ensuring that Greece’s budget surplus goes down the tubes and worsening its overall debt situation. This will no doubt be excacerbated by the ongoing decline in tax receipts triggered by the prospect of SYRIZA gaining government.

    I wonder who the Left are going to blame for the consequences when the greeks continue to spend more than they earn, frighten old capital out of the country, frighten new capital from going into the country and continue not to pay their taxes?

    Oh, wait… the banks, the germans and rich greeks.]

    [Boerwar @ 2030:

    I hope you realize that you’re comical in your inconsistency. First, things were all the Greeks’ fault because the national pastime was tax evasion (partly true) and Greeks had to start paying taxes if they wanted to get out of the crisis (more true); now that a Left party has signalled that it’s prepared to actually enforce the tax code as written, it’s all doom, gloom and capital flight. And all Syriza’s fault, of course…and those silly Greeks voting for Un-Serious People.

    Personally, I just think you have it in for anyone to the left of Maggie “Attila the Hen” Thatcher. Christine Milne could take a stroll across Lake Burley Griffin to get to work, and you’d claim it was because she couldn’t swim!]

    1. I am glad that someone else realizes that the national pastime is tax evasion. Near as anyone can guess it comes to around 30 billion euros a year. If they had paid that for the past ten years no-one would heard of Greece.

    2. SYRIZA’s view of people paying tax is that the plan is to soak the rich. While I am all for this as a plan I was pointing out that the rich have mostly buggered off and have taken their money with them. This means that something extraordinary is going to have to happen: ordinary greeks are going to have to pay taxes. I was talking to someone just this evening whose last vision of Athens was of a sea of houses, each with some sort of addition or renovation in progress. These renos looked like they had been in train for quite a while. This was the case: houses under renovation were not subject to the property tax, apparently. And so it goes.

    3. A lot of people voted for SYRIZA because they are angry about the property tax. Currently the Greeks do not have the national bureaucratic and information base or strong enough institutions to do a proper tax take. One of the conditions on which the EU loaned Greece 200 billion euros was that Greece was going to create the necessary bureacratic infrastructure to actually make greeks pay taxes. This has been, mirabile dictu, a while to get off the ground. SYRIZA has, apparently, threatened to take this reform off the table.

    You say [..it’s all doom, gloom and capital flight. And all Syriza’s fault, of course…and those silly Greeks voting for Un-Serious People.]

    How can it be SYRIZA’s fault when they have only been in coalition government for less than a week and their coalition partner is headed by a guy who is not only anti-semite but a buddhist hater? I have pointed out that SYRIZA has promised a package of measures that are mutually exclusive, but, hey, when you are selling HOPE who gives a rat’s? As for Greeks being silly enough to vote for them… SYRIZA got around one vote in three. I guess that means that two greeks out of every three were not silly enough to vote for them. Or something like that.

    [Personally, I just think you have it in for anyone to the left of Maggie “Attila the Hen” Thatcher. Christine Milne could take a stroll across Lake Burley Griffin to get to work, and you’d claim it was because she couldn’t swim!]

    I have it for people who lie and cheat their way into debt by spending money that is not their’s while squirrelling away 30 billion euros worth of unpaid taxes a year, and then reneging on that debt with piteous cries about where is all the mercy and how hard done by they have been.

    As for Christine Milne, her Canberra minion is busy saddling the ACT with a humungous debt for the biggest white elephant bit of infrastructure ever built in Canberra.

    Still, I suppose we could all live high off the hog, retire at 55, tell huge lies about our finances, borrow far too much to pay back, stop paying our taxes, and then renege on the debt. It seems to be the favourite Greens’ proscription for Greece. Why wouldn’t it work for the ACT?

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