BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Public relaxation over summer, the quirks of a shallow pool of poll results, actual improvement in the government’s standing – whatever the cause, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has again recorded movement in favour of the Coalition.

Week two of BludgerTrack for 2015 adds only the latest Essential Research result to last week’s numbers from Essential and Roy Morgan. This is pretty thin gruel so far as poll aggregation goes, but nonetheless, let it be noted that BludgerTrack finds the latest result to be a lot more like the Morgan poll than Essential’s strong result for Labor last week, and thus shifts a little further the Coalition’s way. The 0.4% move on two-party preferred translates into three gains for the Coalition on the seat projection, namely one seat each in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,676 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

  1. [They may be able to pull the wool over Australians’ eyes for another term.]

    If they can do that after this clusterf@ck of a debacle, Australians bloody well deserve them.

  2. 2335
    [confessions
    Posted Tuesday, January 27, 2015 at 10:47 pm | PERMALINK
    kezza:

    Yes definitely the ironing, now that it’s so much cheaper what with the carbon tax having been abolished.]

    An ideal job for TA would be as an in-store demonstrator of gadgets. He could endlessly remind customers how he personally freed women from the tyranny of the carbon tax while demonstrating the latest model of iron at KMart or BigW.

  3. When The Lying Friar gets the big Dont Come Monday, he should get a job straight away with Aust. Post as an old 1950’s style Postie.

    Crikey Abbott The Liar has simultaneously walked down both sides of a street hundreds of times since he was elected to lead the Fiberal.

    He’d be a gun postie

  4. Bemused

    Strange as it may seem to you, there are lots of women still bullied by hubby or dad and change their ie votes. It is emotional blackmail and works on the belief of the women that they are dumber than dear hubby etc. YES it makes me want to spew but I promise you those very word have been used in the campaign. Now possibly it is a way of being polite to Kate saying I really want to vote for you but hubby is pressuring, rather than being honest and saying I luurve Campbell but you still must take the words at face value.

  5. Edwina

    You seem very dispirited tonight. Even you seem to have given up on him.

    I can just imagine poor old Tone looking imploringly at you and uttering those famous words – Et tu Edwina?

  6. Boerwar

    [I have it for people who lie and cheat their way into debt by spending money that is not their’s while squirrelling away 30 billion euros worth of unpaid taxes a year, and then reneging on that debt with piteous cries about where is all the mercy and how hard done by they have been.]

    You write as if the average person on a salary/wage subject to the power of law and their employer etc is somehow responsible for the actions of the powerful elite/bankers/foreign lenders etc.

    You mean the poor of Greece have no right to oppose unemployment, starvation and hopelessness because the powerful elite stuffed up?????

    You are over the top and prejudiced (as you often are)….

  7. [An ideal job for TA would be as an in-store demonstrator of gadgets.]

    Every farmers’ market needs that loud mouthed spruiker to get in people’s faces with the pick of the day to tell them why it’s so wonderful and can only be delivered by X establishment.

    That’s our Tone. After countless fish gutted, meat packed, fruit fondled, surely this is his calling, and he even comes with recent experience. Winner!

  8. dtt – I think of the 2 conscription referenda in 1916 and 1917. After the first was defeated, the “yes” camp were incredibly confident second time around. They had almost universal newspaper backing, but lost by a bigger margin. It was said that many women voted against it unknown to their husbands.

  9. daretotread@2354

    Bemused

    Strange as it may seem to you, there are lots of women still bullied by hubby or dad and change their ie votes. It is emotional blackmail and works on the belief of the women that they are dumber than dear hubby etc. YES it makes me want to spew but I promise you those very word have been used in the campaign. Now possibly it is a way of being polite to Kate saying I really want to vote for you but hubby is pressuring, rather than being honest and saying I luurve Campbell but you still must take the words at face value.

    OK, you have convinced me.

    Queensland is a very strange place.

  10. Boerwar @2350:

    You’ve spent far more time, effort and energy on that nasty pile of lies and strawmen than I plan to put into a response.

    I’ll just say this: Before you mischaracterise the Greens’ policies, perhaps you could amble over to their website and take a look at them?

    I’ll give you a hint: Nowhere is a retirement age of 55 mentioned, nor encouraging tax evasion, nor lying about our national finances (a pastime of the two major parties, both competing to distort the narrative to suit themselves) nor for that matter higher deficits. Do feel free to keep talking out of your ass, however.

    Finally, if you don’t understand the fiscal difference between Greece and the ACT on one hand (states unable to issue currency) and Australia on the other (a sovereign nation fully able to issue currency as needed), then you’re less intelligent than I thought.

    And before you strawman me yet again by claiming I support hyperinflation: one need not even issue currency in any particularly inflationary amounts to keep borrowing costs low – for one example, compare the UK’s borrowing costs with Spain’s during the height of the crisis – Spain was paying 7.5-8% on bonds while the UK was paying 1.5-2%, despite having higher debt/GDP than Spain. The mere fact that London could issue money to pay the debts (as opposed to defaulting) meant that the punters priced its risk lower – much lower. Making the UK’s interest bill lower than Spain’s, on twice the debt.

  11. Edwina StJohn
    Posted Tuesday, January 27, 2015 at 10:50 pm | PERMALINK
    Well never feel sorry for any politician kezza.

    —bit tough – one could feel pity for those who are sincere – and reasonable – sorrow that the show can’t be what it was meant to be – but yes not much for the deadwood at the top

  12. Its funny seeing the discussion about Abbott’s impending replacement. 🙂 There seems to be a school of thought that replacing him will somehow make the Libs competitive again and scupper the ALP’s chances in 2016. Very wishful thinking by the Libs i think. 🙂

    That ignores the fact that even though the focus is all on Abbott incompetence and Brainfartedness….at the moment…the Libs have a real problem now that much of their agenda, what they WILL DO if they ever have the numbers in parliament to do it, is now firmly out there.

    Fwark over the Unemployed and Disabled, Screw up Higher Education, Dismantle Medicare, Free the Spivs from Regulation, protect tax rorts for the rich, WorkChoices 2.0……….

    Its not just Abbott with that agenda. If he goes they can dump PPL, but the rest is in their DNA and their backers will insist on whoever gets anointed as his replacement pushes that agenda.

    Seriously, the Libs still seem to believe their problem is their Messaging, not the Message itself.

    They need to dump Abbott fer sure or they are certainly and completely fwarked in 2016. But dumping him only makes them uncertainly and slightly less completely fwarked unless they do major changes to policy and direction. And if they do, will anyone actually believe them??

    Dumping Abbott will help with their Trust Deficit Emergency but not erase it.

  13. [Abbott needs to be punished.

    It’s a Catholic thing.

    Too much harmony and his mind turns to the image of a donkey, buckled but braying for every stroke of its master’s skin-ripping whip.]

    I think isn’t more a reactionary thing – abbott was raised by a strict anglo catholic dad, and at school and uni defined himself as being against anything progressive – vatican II, the 60s, anti-vietnam, anti-apartheid, greater tolerance of same sex couples, women’s rights, whitlam, etc etc. He even stopped becoming a priest because he felt the church during that era was too tolerant and into forgiveness (i.e. it was too jesus and not enough old testament fire and brimstone for him to have power over others). He gets some sense of enjoyment from being against the mainstream and defines himself as being anti-left – when in the UK he mounted his own single man counter-pro-Maggie-protest among an anti-apartheid rally (!!! – i.e. I support bigotry because the left is against it). He is against action on climate because he sees it as a leftie cause (& the donations from mining companies also helps). It is a particularly virulent strain of arrogance by the far right to just ‘know’ what is right simply because it is the opposite of what the left say without reference to any facts, science, analysis or thought.

    abbot would have enjoyed the fuss over Sir Phil if it was only the left blowing a gasket (& I am sure this is what he planned). The fact that all and sundry have pilloried him for this shows he called it wrong, but I reckon he’d still be getting a thrill at the attention and being the minority against the rest. It’s not about punishing himself – it is about him congratulating himself that he’s a naughty boy and a ratbag. I expect he’ll go on morning TV this week and try to do his shit-eating, ‘I’m-a-bit-of-a-wag/naughty-boy-who-made-a-mistake-and-call-laugh-at-myself” smile routine. the media and the nation are not going to take it.

    I only hope that now the tide has gone out on abbott (never to return), someone finds and publishes articles he wrote as a student.

    I also labor starts a stead chant re: ‘reforms’ – “Mr abbott has no mandate for this – in fact he promised not to do it repeatedly. if he wants a mandate he needs to call an election. they need to hand him a DD trigger asap and demand he pulls it.” if he doesn’t, the term “lame duck PM” needs to be aired loudly.

  14. [That’s our Tone. After countless fish gutted, meat packed, fruit fondled, surely this is his calling, and he even comes with recent experience. Winner!]

    And, he can do ironing with a hi-viz vest.

    To what more could an ex-PM aspire.

    Especially with the moniker Dick Abbott.

  15. Why don’t you guys and girls prattling endlessly over the Greek economy form your own Pan Hellenic Forum and stop boring the shit out of those who come here to discourse and learn about Australian political issues?

    Even scrolling past your rantings is a pain, there are so many, so repetitive,from so few of you.

  16. Rocket Rocket@2358

    dtt – I think of the 2 conscription referenda in 1916 and 1917. After the first was defeated, the “yes” camp were incredibly confident second time around. They had almost universal newspaper backing, but lost by a bigger margin. It was said that many women voted against it unknown to their husbands.

    Nice get. Very impressive. 🙂

  17. imacca, dumping Abbott – if it’s for a leader approved of by Rupert – will guarantee positive media coverage at every turn until the next election.

    “It’s the Sun wot won it!” <— Some variation of this will be printed in the Lies Unlimited papers if the Coalition wins the next election.

  18. Abbott would make a handy barber.

    Suppose there is a town with just one barber, who is male. In this town, every man keeps himself clean-shaven, and he does so by doing exactly one of two things:

    1. shaving himself; or
    2. being shaved by the barber.

    Also, “The barber is a man in town who shaves all those, and only those, men in town who do not shave themselves.”

    From this, asking the question “Who shaves the barber?” results in a paradox because according to the statement above, he can either shave himself, or go to the barber (which happens to be himself). However, neither of these possibilities are valid: they both result in the barber shaving himself, but he cannot do this because he shaves only those men “who do not shave themselves”.

    But would you trust him with a knife?

  19. they will need a DD …. more instability … or they will need to tackle untaxed wealth in this country – all problems fixed … any LP that fixed up trusts, super, neg gear, off shore taxes, stocks … would actually agin all odds have my vote!! (as long they promoted medicare public health public edu … nah wont happen

  20. Bemused @2367:

    My occasional addressing faux-pas aside, I try not to deliberately use personal abuse when addressing another person. That extends to doing Boerwar the courtesy of spelling his pseud correctly when addressing him, even though I think his arguments are mendacious at best and lying ad-hominems at worst.

  21. Dick Abbott

    After his dad, I mean.

    Checked up on that fellow’s military record, after being castigated by our esteemed moderater.

    Abbott Snr didn’t leave the country. Didn’t fight in any war. The apple didn’t fall far from the tree.

  22. ustainable future
    Posted Tuesday, January 27, 2015 at 11:20 pm | PERMALINK
    Abbott needs to be punished.

    It’s a Catholic thing.

    Too much harmony and his mind turns to the image of a donkey, buckled but braying for every stroke of its master’s skin-ripping whip.

    I think isn’t more a reactionary thing – abbott was raised by a strict anglo catholic dad, and at school and uni defined himself as being against anything progressive – vatican II, the

    —–abbott is a very very naughty catholic – he needs punishment … time for psychoanalysis

  23. Matt@2371

    Bemused @2367:

    My occasional addressing faux-pas aside, I try not to deliberately use personal abuse when addressing another person. That extends to doing Boerwar the courtesy of spelling his pseud correctly when addressing him, even though I think his arguments are mendacious at best and lying ad-hominems at worst.

    Patience has its limits.

    He bores me witless with his long winded ravings.

  24. Rocketx2

    [dtt – I think of the 2 conscription referenda in 1916 and 1917. After the first was defeated, the “yes” camp were incredibly confident second time around. They had almost universal newspaper backing, but lost by a bigger margin. It was said that many women voted against it unknown to their husbands.]

    I believe the most “radical”period of Australian history occurred from the 1880’s to the first world war.

    Since then it has been turgid lower middle class prejudice against real independence from both the Tory and Labour side… It still operates today.

    I am sure that the vast majority of the current ALP MPs would support conscription in 1916/17 if they were alive then.

    I base this on the fact that it is almost unheard of for a cureent careeerist ALP politician to challenge anything about the status quo except the narrow political basis of their support.

    The modern ALP has, as far as I know, no policy on anything that changes the status quo:

    e.g. on extending the vote to 16/17 year olds,

    on any way to enhance citizen participation in government policy and legislation;

    on any way to make the electoral system more honest in reflecting votor intentions

    on any way to make FOI really free…

    on any way to make elected MPs more answerable to electors

    on any way to meaningfully involve the marginal and disadvantaged

    on ways to ensure less inequality in wealth distribution…

    etc’

    Tell me if I am wrong.

  25. [We’ll have a shiny, repackaged “new” Coalition (same policies, but better salespersons), being boosted at every turn by the right-wing media. They may be able to pull the wool over Australians’ eyes for another term.]

    who? who have they got who is a better sales person than abbot? lack of talent is all that kept howard in the chair as he went to the gallows, and abbott’s the same. they will knife abbott, but I cannot see harmony or improved sales afterwards. the calls to go to the polls would be deafening and their is no way anybody other than perhaps turnbull dropping all proposed ‘reforms’ and adopting some progressive policies not supported by the companies that own the party could get them a sustained bounce. Even if he somehow won, the party would still be deeply divided – they are farked.

    Incidentally, I had to laugh at a report i heard on radio the other day that Abetz(!) – talking about the need for the libs to communicate better – has said words to the effect that they needs to communicate more freely (i.e. not vetted by Peta) and ‘not sound like robots’ – this from the man who sounds as though any minute he’ll say ** YOU.ARE.AN.ENEMY.OF.THE.LIBERAL.PARTY! YOU.WILL.BE.EX-TERMIN-ATED! EX-TERMIN-ATE! EX-TERMIN-ATE!**** maybe he has something against the cybermen, cyborgs and tin-men in the party?

  26. Swamprat @2378:

    The modern ALP has, as far as I know, no policy on anything that changes the status quo:

    mhm…this should be interesting.

    e.g. on extending the vote to 16/17 year olds,

    Having taught some, I can only say “HELL NO, PLEASE NO!” to the prospect of your typical 16-17 year old kid getting a vote on choosing the leader of the country. There are exceptions, of course – but most 16-17s are more interested in how to evade parental supervision to sleep with their SO than in who leads the country.

    on any way to enhance citizen participation in government policy and legislation;

    I’d like to see that, up to a point. Anything in mind? How binding would you like it to be?

    on any way to make the electoral system more honest in reflecting votor intentions

    How? If it’s by changing the way the House is apportioned to one fairer to minor/ micro parties, any method will require a Constitutional amendment as a point of practicality. After all, proportional representation – for instance – would entail removing each State’s right to five guaranteed seats.

    on any way to make FOI really free…

    Good idea. I wish they’d do it too.

    on any way to make elected MPs more answerable to electors

    We have one: it’s called “elections”.

    on any way to meaningfully involve the marginal and disadvantaged

    Mhm….how? Most such people – I’m one atm – are more concerned with meeting rent payments than getting involved in political stuff.

    on ways to ensure less inequality in wealth distribution…

    They’ve tried. Each time they propose anything even mildly in this direction, the entire media rises up and screams with one voice, “SOCIALISM!!!one!!11!!!”, and then proceed to spend the time until the next election deliberately destabilizing and bringing down the government.

    The media are, collectively, a well-resourced and trained propaganda operation for the few at the top. Unfortunately, most people don’t seem to realize this, and actually trust the propagandists.

  27. swamprat 2378 – something in that. The Big Idea of unifying the colonies was very hard – anyone now suggesting such a union between say Australia and NZ or USA and Canada is presented with hundreds of reasons why it couldn’t possibly work.

    Also women voting – in 1895 South Australia granted women the vote (and I think not deliberately this actually enabled indigenous women to vote, a temporary “abberation”!), and in 1902 Australia gave women the vote, well ahead of USA and Great Britain (but behind NZ!).

    There were also discussions in the pre-Federation times about whether we should become a Republic when the states joined together.

    Probably not a great era for Aboriginal rights, or Chinese immigration (as we were paying Chinese to leave the country!)

  28. SF @2380:

    Two choices: Bishop (who’s quite a good communicator – I met her once in better times; she’s an adept conversationalist and verbal debater/presenter, if a little on the “brr!” side) or Turnbull (less adept at communications than Bishop, but much better and portraying himself as a moderate kinda guy).

    Either of those, with Rupert Murdoch’s blessing, has a chance at pulling the wool over Aussies’ eyes again.

  29. Gecko, swamprat – and of course the whole Conscription thing split the Labor Party, and Billy Hughes was kicked out.

    Though his portrait still hangs in the Labor Party Caucus Room in Canberra along with all the Federal Labor leaders.

    I have only just found out that his portrait now also hangs in the Liberal Party room! In 2009 George Brandis led a move to “rebrand” (1984 style?) all the old Conservative PMs before Menzies’ Liberal Party as “sort of Liberals” and so Hughes who was “Nationalist Party” PM after expulsion from the Labor Party gets a guernsey!

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/liberals-rewrite-an-inclusive-past-20090920-fwqz.html

  30. Raaraa @2383:

    I know – we all do it from time to time, it’s almost instinctive to push back against what you think your opponent said without listening to what they actually did say.

    But Boerwar is consistently aggravating about it. Not to mention that he spends a goodly portion of his electrons on slagging my political preferences (the Greens), which is fine up to a point, but he’s resorting to increasingly self-contradictory arguments and outlandish strawmen.

  31. Rocket

    [There were also discussions in the pre-Federation times about whether we should become a Republic when the states joined together.]

    The issue today is not whether we are a “republic” as all modern constitutional monarchies in Europe are “republics”.

    The constitutional monarch is just an hereditory “head of State” with absolutely no governmental power.

    Power resides in elected parliaments, hence are republics.

    There are two DIFFERENT questions:

    1. whether we have an “Australian” head of state within the existing system: an Australian Crown/King/Queen/GovGeneral etc

    2. whether we have an elected political head of state, eg “president”.

    The Labor Party, as usual, presents no ideas on this, just a normal vacuous and mindless “lets discuss the republic”.

  32. In tomorrow’s papers, The Courier-Mail front page has a mock-up of Tony Abbott as a court jester (“the act of a political fool, furious Libs declare”), The West Australian leads with “New royal knight has coalition MPs jittery”, and Peter van Onselen advises: “forget the Courier’s frontpage, wait till you see The Aust’s editorial tomorrow!”

  33. [There are two DIFFERENT questions:

    1. whether we have an “Australian” head of state within the existing system: an Australian Crown/King/Queen/GovGeneral etc

    2. whether we have an elected political head of state, eg “president”.

    The Labor Party, as usual, presents no ideas on this, just a normal vacuous and mindless “lets discuss the republic”.]

    For my money the first question should be ‘Do you want Australia to be a Republic?’ Nothing more, nothing less. Arguing about methodology at the same time is a sure way to kill it dead. (Just like Howard did.) Then and only then can the serious discussion begin.
    One question. Just one.

  34. Gecko

    [For my money the first question should be ‘Do you want Australia to be a Republic?’ Nothing more, nothing less. Arguing about methodology at the same time is a sure way to kill it dead. (Just like Howard did.) Then and only then can the serious discussion begin.
    One question. Just one.]

    To you “republic”, presumably has only one meaning, that everyone understands.

    I mean if someone asked me whether i wanted a “republic” I would ask them what they meant by that.

    The early UsofA rebel/terrorists debated as to whether they would have an independent monarchy, a republic or a democracy.

    Unsurprisingly they opted for a “republic” (i.e. ruled by a few elected worthies).

    There is no way the ruling class would support a “democracy”.

  35. Matt – I’d agree a Bishop/Turnbull team and a quick rush to the polls might get them over the line – but it will depend on:

    1. how messy abbott’s knifing is. I expect they will get Howard to tap him on the shoulder and try to spin it that he achieved what he came to do (axed the taxes. stopped the boats. and …..oh,er, started debate on how to bring the budget under control). Margie or one of the kids might develop a health issue he needs to step down to support. he could develop an alan bond brain tumor – most people would then say ‘that explains it!’. I suspect his knifing might be messy unless his closest supporters are the ones who tell him to go and he’s paid our handsomly.
    2. Whether the far right of the party are going to accept a moderate leadership team. I cannot see this happening. bishop and turnbull might be allowed as figureheads, but the right will not release its grip of the party and IPA agenda. If they do not drop their ‘reforms’, the election becomes a referendum on the failed budget, GST hikes and workchoices II. Any denials that this is their agenda can be called out with a “is that a Howard never-ever or an Abbott rolled gold promise?”
    3. how well shorten does. he’s no Hawke and probably the lib’s best hope.

  36. [ and Peter van Onselen advises: “forget the Courier’s frontpage, wait till you see The Aust’s editorial tomorrow!” ]

    Well, all this certainly gives them cover to get rid of him without suffering the “you knifed a 1st term PM” horrors. Maybe he wouldn’t go quietly and they have just withdrawn all adviser services or tasked Peta to simply let him have a free play for a while??

  37. Gecko

    Yes, I understand.

    I support Australia having its own “head of State”.

    But until it is debated in a wider context of what sort of government/economic/environmental system we want, I will not support superficial ALP “change”.

    i.e., until the “republicans”/ALP become part of a debate about our democratic/nature of Australia, I will vote to retain the Windsors as our pretend “Head of State”

  38. William Bowe @2389:

    What would you say the odds of a leadership spill are? And do you think the first shot will get Abbott out, or will he be the economy-sized turd that has to be flushed repeatedly?

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