BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Public relaxation over summer, the quirks of a shallow pool of poll results, actual improvement in the government’s standing – whatever the cause, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has again recorded movement in favour of the Coalition.

Week two of BludgerTrack for 2015 adds only the latest Essential Research result to last week’s numbers from Essential and Roy Morgan. This is pretty thin gruel so far as poll aggregation goes, but nonetheless, let it be noted that BludgerTrack finds the latest result to be a lot more like the Morgan poll than Essential’s strong result for Labor last week, and thus shifts a little further the Coalition’s way. The 0.4% move on two-party preferred translates into three gains for the Coalition on the seat projection, namely one seat each in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,676 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

  1. That was poorly phrased. You -are- a professional psephologist, and the level of attention to politics that entails makes you much better qualified to posit guesses about the internal workings of a caucus room than I am.

  2. (.. a slow hand clap starts to pulsate from the waiting crowd.. )

    For my part, I would imagine that the Libs will hunker down, try to pretend Australia Day never happened, go into group therapy, have some honest moments with Tone about consultation and political tin ears, and give him one very last chance.

  3. Given the almost total ridicule of the Prince’s knighthood and Abbott’s record of backflips I’m not ruling out a change of mind.

    I reckon Phil would take one for Team Australia.

  4. Hmm.
    Does it really matter what the Lib party members want after they have had a look at the front of the CM and seen what the boss [to simplify it a bit] wants?

    The boss has been looking at the history – its been over year now of lousy poll results and bugger all of the type of laws he wants passed actually getting passed.
    Abbott was put in the chair to do a job, he’s failed to do that.
    I suspect its just o matter of ‘when’ and ‘how’ to replace him now?

    Those that live by the sword ….

  5. rossmcg @ 2406: I really can’t see that happening. For the whole thing to be wound back would engender an even greater sense of farce (if that’s possible) than we’ve seen to date.

    That having been said, it’s become very clear that Mr Abbott has lost all ability to perceive how his actions will play out with the public. While one could disagree with his reintroduction of knights and dames, as long as he made reasonably sensible appointments, he could probably have got away with it. But as own goals go, this one has been a doozy, up there with Mr Downer’s “Things that Batter” speech.

  6. John Quiggin makes a good point about the misused (including by myself) term “hung parliament”, which should properly refer to one that can’t produce a government.

    [I’m avoiding the silly phrase “hung Parliament”. By analogy with a “hung jury”, this implies a Parliament that is unable to produce a workable government. In reality, the existence of a disciplined majority, effectively at the command of a quasi-presidential leader, has generally produced bad government, particularly in a unicameral system like that in Queensland. By contrast, minority governments have often run their full term, and been more transparent and open than their majority counterparts.]

  7. The data on German trade is (for those who like that sort of thing) really quite interesting.

    This is a detailed source.

    http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=6&ved=0CEMQFjAF&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bmwi.de%2FEnglish%2FRedaktion%2FPdf%2Ffacts-about-german-foreign-trade-in-2012%2Cproperty%3Dpdf%2Cbereich%3Dbmwi2012%2Csprache%3Den%2Crwb%3Dtrue.pdf&ei=Mo_HVMPiGqXWmgX8t4DADA&usg=AFQjCNHWGFn7Oxm7VHVLsg1op737OplDtw&bvm=bv.84349003,d.dGY

    Out of curiosity, the records show that Germany had a trade surplus with Greece in 2012 of euros 2.853 billion, that Greece ranked 24th in the list of countries with whom Germany was in trade surplus and that the surplus was 1.5% of Germany’s total trade surplus.

    In 2012 Germany imported euros 1.849 billion in goods and services from Greece (0.2% of the total and ranked 47th) while exports totaled euros 4.692 billion (0.4% of total and ranked 39th).

    As Nicholas mentioned above, Pettis is very illuminating on the inter-relationships between trade, capital flows and national savings.

    These flows account for a lot of the stress in the Euro Zone, but they cannot, by themselves, account for the insolvency of the Greek State. This has arisen because the deficit in Greece’s national savings has been located in the public accounts rather than in private accounts (the latter is largely the situation in Australia).

    The Bank of Greece publishes trade data showing annual import and export flows from 2000 to 2013 here:

    http://www.bankofgreece.gr/Pages/en/Statistics/externalsector/balance/commercial.aspx

    The trade deficit grew from euro 18.9 billion in 2000 to 27.2 billion in 2008 and had declined by 2013 to 8.0 billion. The cumulative deficit over these years was euro 259 billion.

  8. [John Quiggin makes a good point about the misused (including by myself) term “hung parliament”, which should properly refer to one that can’t produce a government.]

    Is there another traditional term for ‘shared parliaments’ or is it a race to the neologism?

  9. 2413

    A solution I have seen to that is to describe a really messy Parliament as hung drawn and quartered. I saw it used to describe the likely makeup of the next British Parliament. It is by not means a perfect solution as hung Parliament should be equivalent to a hung jury.

    Non-majority parliament is the best I can come up with.

  10. Re Abbott’s job after PM

    As we’ll be cleaning up his mess I thought it might be good if he cleaned up ours.

    I thought with his fitness he’d make a good garbologist running after the truck, but then with his attitude to the environment you couldn’t trust him to separate and recycle the rubbish.

    So my fall back is a job with the police.
    He could work as a stable hand following the police greys around sweeping up their shit.

  11. 1888
    Libertarian Unionist

    @Newsweek: The global economy is in danger from a spiral of deflation and currency wars — http://t.co/Jf6MSN3V1R

    [This is almost a good article, except that it should be clear by now that the global economy is in a spiral of deflation, and that the cause of the deflation is decades of low interest monetary policy that spurred over-investment and over-capacity. Demand has been smashed by the twin forces of asset price inflation (esp property) leading borrowers to hold high debt, and savers to earn nothing on their savings.

    There is really only one solution – central banks to stop undercutting one another, possibly even raise rates, and let some banks fail.]

    I think we need to look back at the Great Depression, when deflation could be observed as a systemic preference for currency rather for goods and services. Monetary, price and real wage dynamics encouraged people to hold cash – or, they thought, gold – rather than to spend (consume or invest).

    A similar process is occurring now. Those entities who hold currency will continue to do so for at least three reasons. First, central banks can require them to deliver currency, so they need to hold reserves; second, central banks have been ravenous buyers of near-money assets, so financial entities have been able to make very low risk gains by preferring near-currency rather than other asset classes. Third, currency and near-currency are pure liquidity. This is a valuable thing in itself in an environment where recurring insolvency lingers in the banking system.

    So this is deflation in our time. Financial entities prefer to hold currency rather than to forward it for consumption and investment.

    Globally taken, real per capita GDP per day is USD5.30. We can hardly say we have solved the problem of scarcity; that excess investment or capacity is the cause of deflation. Really, we can say that income deficiency and inequalities are the cause of under-consumption and under-employment.

    We could arrest deflation very easily by discouraging entities from hoarding currency, or, really, by encouraging them to lend or spend. We need to change the way negative interest rates are applied in the core of the financial system, so that the cost of negative rates is borne by central banks and the benefits are received by households and non-financial businesses.

    This would mean, for example, that lenders who advance credit to businesses or consumers at very low interest rates would receive “reserve credits”. Thus, for every $1 in new loans made, reserve holders may receive, say, $0.03 in new reserve “bonuses” from their central bank, providing the bonuses were effectively passed on as discounts to credit-users. This could be done by granting partial waivers on repayment of principal or interest or by building in discounts on commercial bill transactions.

    Borrowers could take out loans for, say $100, and only be required to repay $97, or be able to borrow at zero interest for specified periods. This would soon alter the monetary and income dynamics.

    These kind of measures would help re-set the “deflationary preference” to hold currency, and stimulate both consumption and investment.

  12. briefly,

    I’m not sure I follow. The quoted section says central banks should raise rates. But in your text you’re saying that consumers should be offered very low or even negative rates. Did I miss something?

  13. 2417…real rates paid by consumers and small businesses are very high. They represent profiteering by the banks.

    If deflation becomes embedded in the global economy we will all regret it – higher unemployment, falling investment, declining incomes, more entrenched insolvencies, weaker public finances – these things have to be averted.

  14. I can’t see Abbott going. If they want to win Turnbull is the man; for the rest of the options; frypan and fire come to mind. Turnbull will never be supported by the mad right.

  15. The Murdoch headlines look to be a clear signal to the faithful (and anyone else for that matter) that Abbott’s time of support by him has expired.

    Right now there’ll be number crunching, deals, promises and strategising about how best to get rid of Abbott without it looking too much the splitting image of 2010. Also, who to choose for a new leadership team?

    Once this kind of genie gets out of the bottle it ain’t easy to put it back. One of the reported quotes wwte *stick a fork in him he is done*

    Abbott who might have dreamed of being a King Arthur has instead proved to be more of an Australian version of Ethelred the Unready.

    Going, going, ….

  16. Amazing diatribe from Miranda Devine putting the Murdoch authorised knife into Abbottt. Many good ideas, this being the best

    [Let’s hope there is method in his madness. But one thing is sure: the Prime Minister has to make a sacrificial offering to convince his colleagues that he has learned a lesson.

    Something that causes him pain, like chopping off his right arm. In other words, moving on chief of staff Peta Credlin.

    Justly or not, she is being blamed for the Prince Philip gaffe.

    It was Abbott’s decision but it’s the job of the chief of staff, who he has been known to calls the Boss, to stop him from making such a blunder.

    Credlin’s replacement should be the person she didn’t want to hire as head of communications strategy, ­despite various entreaties from high-level media and political figures: Chris Kenny.

    As editorial writer for The Australian, a seasoned journalist and a former adviser and chief of staff to Alexander Downer and Malcolm Turnbull, he’s in touch with the world, has the right ideas, shares Abbott’s broad world view without the kinky bits.]

    http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/mirandadevine/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/it_is_the_knight_to_call_it_a_day/#.VMfrgPFWbhQ.twitter

  17. [As editorial writer for The Australian, a seasoned journalist and a former adviser and chief of staff to Alexander Downer and Malcolm Turnbull, he’s in touch with the world, has the right ideas, shares Abbott’s broad world view without the kinky bits.]

    Totally off the planet.

  18. Gecko

    [For my money the first question should be ‘Do you want Australia to be a Republic?’ Nothing more, nothing less. Arguing about methodology at the same time is a sure way to kill it dead. (Just like Howard did.) Then and only then can the serious discussion begin.
    One question. Just one.]

    Unfortunately the question has already been asked with all the excess baggage. When asked, people will think of all the risks involved and put that into the answer.

    It’s a bit like if someone approached you on the street and ask you, “Do you want free ice cream?”

    You’ll be inclined to say yes, but then thought “what’s the catch?”

  19. First…
    Expect to see a few ancillary questions about Abbotts citizenship from the right. The easiest way to get rid of Abbott without being seen to knife him ala Gillard/Rudd is to “discover” he has no right to be in Parliament in the first place.
    Second, if that fails, is to make his alcoholism publicly prominent (he’s sick and therefore we are doing the right thing to allow him to recover etc)
    Third, point to all his decisions and explain to the electorate that they had no choice. A public execution that brings the electorate along. Not very pleasant but he is hated that much the electorate will probably cheer them.

  20. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Stand by for a bumper edition!

    Is it the beginning of the end for Michael Clarke?
    http://smh.com.au/sport/cricket/cricket-officials-discuss-replacing-michael-clarke-with-steven-smith-as-fulltime-australian-captain-20150127-12z5at.html
    Abbott forced to hit the phones again – Mark Kenny.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pm-tony-abbott-makes-calls-to-steady-ship-20150127-12z3wd.html
    Kenny says Abbott would be foolish to ignore the leadership rumbles.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/tony-abbott-foolish-if-he-ignores-leadership-rumblings-in-wake-of-knighthood-decision-20150127-12yyp1.html
    The Adelaide Advertiser – Is it time for Abbott to go?
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/tony-abbott-sparks-leadership-questions-and-tension-in-the-liberal-party/story-e6frea6u-1227198704319
    The Independent Australia reckons it’s all over for Abbott.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/quo-vadis-abbott-agonistes,7301
    Dire polling for marginal Coalition seats. And that was BEFORE Sir Prince Phil!
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jan/28/coalition-mps-trail-in-eight-out-of-11-marginals-as-budget-issues-bite-poll-says
    Jacqui Maley – Abbott’s sentimental journey.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/tony-abbotts-sentimental-journey-to-britain-and-oxford-university-20150127-12z9gb.html
    Abbott is running out of lives!
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2015/01/27/tony-abbott-jumped-shark/
    If the government wants a budget surplus why is it increasing spending? Stephen Koukoulas in The Guardian.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/27/if-the-government-wants-a-budget-surplus-why-is-it-increasing-spending
    Fun and games at Canterbury Council.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/canterbury-council-votes-to-dismiss-jim-montague-20150127-12zhym.html

  21. Section 2 . . .

    The only certainty from a reduced minimum wage is more poor people.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/27/the-only-certainty-of-a-reduced-minimum-wage-is-a-lot-more-poor-people
    Apple’s disgustingly miniscule tax bill exposed. How can this be tolerated?
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/apples-803-million-australian-tax-bill-revealed-20150127-12yrqq.html
    Painful parents to avoid at school drop off.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/painful-parents-to-avoid-in-the-school-playground-20150127-12y0z7.html
    Campbell Newman’s hypocrisy revealed on video.
    https://newmatilda.com/2015/01/27/video-emerges-lord-mayor-campbell-newman-dumping-coal-project-he-later-approved-premier
    And Newman’s 2012 “Contract with Queensland” is broken.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/campbell-newmans-final-report-card,7302
    Judging Newman’s performance.
    http://theaimn.com/judging-campbell-newmans-performance/
    The 32 worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2015/01/27/the-three-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-180/
    If you don’t mind getting angry read this.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/antivaccination-group-encourages-parents-to-join-fake-church-20150127-12zcrc.html
    And another one to get you angry! A great example of how power corrupts.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/jewish-sex-abuse-victims-pressured-not-to-assist-police-secret-tapes-and-emails-reveal-20150127-12zcfa.html
    Ross Gittins – Little action on social issues sells us all short.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/little-action-on-social-issues-sell-us-all-short-20150127-12yxcn.html

  22. Section 3 . . .

    Ben Eltham has his say on Abbott’s knighthood of Phil.
    https://newmatilda.com/2015/01/27/abbotts-love-prince-proves-hes-no-machiavelli
    Jeff Sparrow says David Hicks’ critics should get ready to recant their smears. Miranda Devine gets some special attention – along with a number of our other favourites!
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/27/david-hicks-declared-innocent-at-last-his-critics-should-recant-their-smears
    Peter Wicks – Are we facing WorkChoices 2.0 or something even more sinister?
    http://wixxyleaks.com/senses-working-overtime-are-we-about-to-face-workchoices-2-0-or-an-even-more-sinister-agenda/
    Kate Carnell – carping whinger for hire.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/we-need-a-workplace-for-the-modern-economy-20150127-12zb5s.html
    This makes more sense than Carnell.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/workers-should-be-trusted-to-get-the-job-done-in-the-hours-that-suit-them-20150127-12yqte.html
    The ACCC is still investigating Qantas over spurious fuel surcharges.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviation/watchdog-accc-will-probe-qantas-fuel-surcharges-despite-changes-20150127-12z733.html
    More transparency and accountability oversight for ASIC would be a good thing but only if it has real teeth.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/merit-in-oversight-board-for-asic-but-only-if-its-got-teeth-20150127-12z7zy.html
    No-one is safe from Abbott’s APS outsourcing infatuation!
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/aps-outsourcing-noone-is-safe-says-1990s-outsourcing-guru-20150127-12yu6t.html
    Jonathan Holmes praises John Faulkner.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/john-faulkner-a-rare-champion-of-transparency-20150127-12yq90.html
    There will be no easy way out for delusional Greeks.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/alexis-tsipras-conundrum-raises-tensions-in-europe-over-disastrous-monetary-experiment-20150127-12ysw5.html

  23. Section 4 . . .

    The lovely Michaelia Cash eschews the idea of a national royal commission into domestic violence.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/minister-downplays-idea-of-national-royal-commission-into-domestic-violence-20150127-12yyqq.html
    Matt Golding on the return of Coalition MPs to parliament.

    Alan Moir with our Sir Prince Phil.

    And Cathy Wilcox couldn’t resist a jab.

    A great piss take from Pat Campbell.

    David Rowe gets down and dirty on Abbott’s leadership.

  24. Morning all. With attention fixed on Tony “the Gaffer” Abbott and THAT knighthood, there was not much comment about the absurd decision to fly flags at half mast for the death of Saudi King Abdullah. Who decided that? Was it Bishop or Abbott? It becomes relevant if the PM changes.

    Some have tried to represent Abdullah as a reformer in a conservative country. Rubbish. He was brutally repressive, and not only at home. This article highlights his role in derailing the Egyptian revolution. We should have declared a holiday when this guy died.
    http://www.juancole.com/2015/01/cancels-revolution-derailed.html

    Have a good day all.

  25. Thanks BK. Extraordinary the number of conservative columnists now criticising Abbott. They all saw the light at the same time… It is as though a suppression order has been lifted from above.

  26. An excellent summary of the Lying Friar. Thanks for the link, BK.

    [But Abbott Agonistes is no ordinary politician. He will not suffer through this long, slow crucifixion like Rudd and Gillard did, albeit in their different ways.

    It is conceivable, on some bizarre level, that he will actually enjoy it. As outlined above, and unlike most mature people, Abbott will never be able to see that it is his fault. When he departs the political scene, it will be the public that did not live up to his expectations, not the other way round. It will be just as he blamed the faults of the Church for leaving the priesthood — the church let him down, he wasn’t the problem. Isolation vindicates him; general consensus unnerves him.

    The political destruction of Abbott in the coming months is much to be hoped for and almost a certainty. But because he is like no ordinary politician, it will be a fascinating and very unique spectacle to watch. But at this stage of the process, before he departs the scene, three points can be made.

    Firstly, Abbott has damaged the fabric of our society. His behaviour towards Julia Gillard was full of contempt, cruelty and hatred. And deliberate lies. Many people were also hurt or offended by him, not as individuals but as supporters of hers, or as ordinary people trying to be decent citizens. The anger coming out now at Abbott is a sign of just how damaging he was – and how many people felt its effects – even if not fully aware at the time of how hurtful it was to them personally.]

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/quo-vadis-abbott-agonistes,7301

  27. Thanks for the links BK. Every commentator seems to be asking “What will be Tony’s next step?”

    They should ask “What will be his next misstep?”

    And Miranda Devine blaming it on Peta Credlin – deep-seated hatred there! Why not blame Mark Simkin? Or Tony Abbott?

  28. In the last days of WWII Adolf wrote his will in which he blamed the Jews (which was to be expected) but more telling he blamed the German people for not being up to the task of being led by him. They lost, not because of Hitler but in spite of him and therefore deservedly got what they deserved.
    Hitler, not unlike Abbott, was so wrapped in his own ego and hubris that he couldn’t accept any personal responsibility.

  29. Morning all.

    Jeff Kennett joins the chorus of Liberals criticising Abbott:

    [Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 1h 1 hour ago
    Jeff Kennett on Tony Abbott damaging state colleagues facing elections: “He talks about Team Australia, what about Team Liberal?’’]

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