BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Public relaxation over summer, the quirks of a shallow pool of poll results, actual improvement in the government’s standing – whatever the cause, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has again recorded movement in favour of the Coalition.

Week two of BludgerTrack for 2015 adds only the latest Essential Research result to last week’s numbers from Essential and Roy Morgan. This is pretty thin gruel so far as poll aggregation goes, but nonetheless, let it be noted that BludgerTrack finds the latest result to be a lot more like the Morgan poll than Essential’s strong result for Labor last week, and thus shifts a little further the Coalition’s way. The 0.4% move on two-party preferred translates into three gains for the Coalition on the seat projection, namely one seat each in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,676 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

  1. “@joeobrien24: PM’s Office says there’ll be a Joint Media Conf at 10am in Melb. Watch live on @abcnews24. Doesn’t say who he will be with.”

  2. Have just been looking at the opinion page of the Australian and there is not a lot of love for Abbott there either.

    Even Albrechtsten thinks he’s invited ridicule.

  3. Gecko and sprocket_
    It’s going to be a joint presser apparently so it’s probably going to be a unicorn manoeuvre.
    The questions (if any) at the end of it will be illuminating as will the timing and method of Abbott’s withdrawl.

  4. [On Sydney’s radio 2GB last Sunday, Miranda Devine unsurprisingly put it to Mr Abbott that his government was on the nose. His reply was that nobody he met on the street during his NSW South Coast holidays gave him the impression that his was a government in trouble. That is an unsettlingly naive reply. Mr Abbott is approachable and friendly in person; even if he were not, Australians are not by nature prone to lecture politicians on a family holiday.]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/editorials/tony-abbott-is-in-office-but-is-he-prime-minister/story-e6frg71x-1227198890579

  5. Politicians of all stripes should stop “visiting the troops”. The troops do not appreciate having their time and effort wasted in order to provide a photo op or headline for self-aggrandisers.

  6. Reflecting on recent days, I keep thinking about the stories about Tone as a student politician: never proposing anything – just blocking everything and taking great delight in getting up the noses of the left. I think Phil-gate was a consequence of two things:
    1. Tone didn’t realise that his position is desperate; and
    2. He thought he still had the political capital to give Phil a gong and thus give all of his opponents a huge malicious two-fingered salute (just as he gave one to the doctors for opposing him the first time). This was all about being as insulting and rude to his opponents as possible.
    It’s not a novel insight to say it was student politics at its worst.

  7. Given the criticism, Abbott’s going to need a big announcement that he’s large and inn charge.

    1. Cambodia has agreed to take all remaining Asylum Seekers from Manus and Nauru and they will be closed.
    2. Another credible major terrorist scare has been averted.
    3. He’s had legal advice that he’s not an Australian citizen and must resign immediately.
    4. Prince Philip has knocked back the Knighthood.
    5. Credlin has been appointed Ambassador to France and her and her husband Loughnane are leaving immediately to take up the position.

    Others can speculate as well…………

  8. [PM’s Office says there’ll be a Joint Media Conf at 10am in Melb. Watch live on @abcnews24. Doesn’t say who he will be with.”]

    Various alternate scenarios present themselves depending who the ‘other’ person[s] is.
    1. Margie and the girls.
    2. A doctor, maybe a neurosurgeon
    3 Julie
    4. A squad of soldiers led by whatisname the puppet general fella Moriisson used.
    5. The Governor General
    6.Peta [and maybe Brian].

    Probably none of the above.

  9. lizzie,

    were the words any stronger than these?

    “The Prime Minister’s office has been in touch today to see what areas I’d like to talk about,” Senator Muir said yesterday.

    “Everything’s worth considering,” he said while adding that he still he had reservations, particularly regarding how the changes might affect students attending regional universities.

    “It’s always been my concern that there could be unintended consequences.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-28/senator-ricky-muir-remains-open-to-deregulating-university-fees/6050404

    sounds to me like he hasn’t conceded much. yet

  10. See Lizzie’s comment. The joint press conference may be with Muir to announce agreement on Uni fees. That would explain it being in Melbourne.

    Just what Campbell Newman will need 3 days before an election – “Liberals guarantee $100,000 degrees”

  11. [Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 2m 2 minutes ago
    Ok, so the captains calls so far, pls add to the list: PPL, ill-fated Medicare backflip, Knights & Dames, Sir Philip, 18C backflip, more???]

  12. My suspicion is that at this point any cross bench senator that wants to do a deal with Abbott would be afraid of inadvertently getting covered in muck by association no matter what the deal or subject.

  13. from today’s Oz:

    The government has won praise from Universities Australia and vice-chancellors for being prepared to move on its proposal for a 20 per cent cut to university course funding, worth $2 billion in savings over the forward estimates, in order to allow institutions to set their own fees and win support from other crossbenchers.

    But the bargaining position has angered Senator Leyonhjelm, who dubbed it a “half-baked ­reform’’. “There’s no blank cheque for the government on deregu­lation if it thinks it’s going to end up costing taxpayers more,” the Liberal Democrat said. “I think Pyne’s taken my vote for granted because of my previous position (but) I’ve changed my position.”

    A spokesman for Senator Day from Family First, who backs ­deregulation, said his support was not guaranteed if the government “substantially modified’’ its ­reforms. The government is looking for a circuit-breaker on its tertiary package after it was defeated in the Senate last month and ­remains stalled despite Tony ­Abbott pledging it would be front and centre of this year’s legislative agenda.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/education/john-dawkins-backs-university-fee-reforms/story-fn59nlz9-1227198906781

    also interesting that the uni stuff now has top billing on the website

  14. morning all

    Thanks to BK and others for today’s bumper edition.

    Interesting that Shorten is not even in the country whilst the malestrom is happening around Abbott.

    Miranda Devine like Hartcher has declared that Credlin needs to go for Abbott to survive

  15. Dumping Credlin would mollify the party room, but would the average swing voter even know who she is?

    Or is the logic that Abbott buys some time by dumping Credlin and then uses his political skills to win the public back?

  16. RA

    Credlin did a first class job of getting Abbott the keys to the lodge. Now that the public have awoken to their stupor about Abbott, it is all her fault. Go figure

  17. Very good to see on last nights 7:30 report a legitimate refugee being settled into PNG Community. He was very happy being settled and wanted to make a go of his new life with the PNG people who are very beautiful people.

    Those protesting on Manus are most likely not legitimate and should be sent home as they are wanting an economic… not a refugee solution.

  18. [Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 5m 5 minutes ago
    Based on chats with Libs this AM, for the 1st time (& i can’t believe i’m saying this) I now don’t think PM can make it to the next election]

  19. confessions

    PVO is taking the piss. He personally has been actively working to prepare the ground for Abbott to be dumped prior to the election. Cos one thing PVO understands is that Abbott cannot lead the fibs to victory next time around

  20. [I find it hard to believe that Muir would backflip on his own, given the other crossbenchers are still (publicly) opposed]

    Not really a backflip entirely as Muir supported the original package even in the knowledge it was going down.

  21. From what Muir said later he never supported the package but was voting to continue debate. He has since come out and said he would be unlikely to support it

    So what’s the presser about?

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