Week two of BludgerTrack for 2015 adds only the latest Essential Research result to last week’s numbers from Essential and Roy Morgan. This is pretty thin gruel so far as poll aggregation goes, but nonetheless, let it be noted that BludgerTrack finds the latest result to be a lot more like the Morgan poll than Essential’s strong result for Labor last week, and thus shifts a little further the Coalition’s way. The 0.4% move on two-party preferred translates into three gains for the Coalition on the seat projection, namely one seat each in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.
BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor
Public relaxation over summer, the quirks of a shallow pool of poll results, actual improvement in the government’s standing whatever the cause, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has again recorded movement in favour of the Coalition.
PM presser at 10am.
Body language will be interesting
“@joeobrien24: PM’s Office says there’ll be a Joint Media Conf at 10am in Melb. Watch live on @abcnews24. Doesn’t say who he will be with.”
A portend of Abbott’s body language?
@lipporocks: Asst Def Min Stuart Robert says this front page “unhelpful” and “somewhat disrespectful” http://t.co/u4Hk7KB3JR
Marvelous reading this morning. Thoroughly enjoyable, (particularly Ben Eltham). Thanks BK, a bumper crop indeed.
sprocket_@2451
Will he be playing the lute or juggling?
The Government Gazette opinion writers have been sooled of their leashes
http://t.co/fpbawBNv3C”
“@chriskkenny: Thanks @mirandadevine but with three jobs, two toddlers and grown up sons, I might be busy enough.”
Have just been looking at the opinion page of the Australian and there is not a lot of love for Abbott there either.
Even Albrechtsten thinks he’s invited ridicule.
broken link sprocket.
Gecko and sprocket_
It’s going to be a joint presser apparently so it’s probably going to be a unicorn manoeuvre.
The questions (if any) at the end of it will be illuminating as will the timing and method of Abbott’s withdrawl.
[On Sydney’s radio 2GB last Sunday, Miranda Devine unsurprisingly put it to Mr Abbott that his government was on the nose. His reply was that nobody he met on the street during his NSW South Coast holidays gave him the impression that his was a government in trouble. That is an unsettlingly naive reply. Mr Abbott is approachable and friendly in person; even if he were not, Australians are not by nature prone to lecture politicians on a family holiday.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/editorials/tony-abbott-is-in-office-but-is-he-prime-minister/story-e6frg71x-1227198890579
Politicians of all stripes should stop “visiting the troops”. The troops do not appreciate having their time and effort wasted in order to provide a photo op or headline for self-aggrandisers.
On upcoming presser by PM
“@chrisberg: announcing a modest knighthood copayment”
[The questions (if any) at the end of it will be illuminating as will the timing and method of Abbott’s withdrawl.]
Method: Boot
Time: Imminent
Reflecting on recent days, I keep thinking about the stories about Tone as a student politician: never proposing anything – just blocking everything and taking great delight in getting up the noses of the left. I think Phil-gate was a consequence of two things:
1. Tone didn’t realise that his position is desperate; and
2. He thought he still had the political capital to give Phil a gong and thus give all of his opponents a huge malicious two-fingered salute (just as he gave one to the doctors for opposing him the first time). This was all about being as insulting and rude to his opponents as possible.
It’s not a novel insight to say it was student politics at its worst.
Tone is now going to ask for absolution and forgiveness.
Malcolm Turnbull in NY happily tweeting, nothing to see here 🙂
@TurnbullMalcolm: With Postgrad Students from @USSC at @unisydney who are part of the @GDAYUSAofficial programme here. http://t.co/OaKJzELvCA
I didn’t realise Chris Berg had a sense of humour 🙂
I’m not happy. ABC TV runner says that Muir has changed his mind on Uni fees “after a meeting with the PM”. I wonder what he offered him?
Given the criticism, Abbott’s going to need a big announcement that he’s large and inn charge.
1. Cambodia has agreed to take all remaining Asylum Seekers from Manus and Nauru and they will be closed.
2. Another credible major terrorist scare has been averted.
3. He’s had legal advice that he’s not an Australian citizen and must resign immediately.
4. Prince Philip has knocked back the Knighthood.
5. Credlin has been appointed Ambassador to France and her and her husband Loughnane are leaving immediately to take up the position.
Others can speculate as well…………
[PM’s Office says there’ll be a Joint Media Conf at 10am in Melb. Watch live on @abcnews24. Doesn’t say who he will be with.”]
Various alternate scenarios present themselves depending who the ‘other’ person[s] is.
1. Margie and the girls.
2. A doctor, maybe a neurosurgeon
3 Julie
4. A squad of soldiers led by whatisname the puppet general fella Moriisson used.
5. The Governor General
6.Peta [and maybe Brian].
Probably none of the above.
lizzie,
were the words any stronger than these?
“The Prime Minister’s office has been in touch today to see what areas I’d like to talk about,” Senator Muir said yesterday.
“Everything’s worth considering,” he said while adding that he still he had reservations, particularly regarding how the changes might affect students attending regional universities.
“It’s always been my concern that there could be unintended consequences.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-28/senator-ricky-muir-remains-open-to-deregulating-university-fees/6050404
sounds to me like he hasn’t conceded much. yet
See Lizzie’s comment. The joint press conference may be with Muir to announce agreement on Uni fees. That would explain it being in Melbourne.
Just what Campbell Newman will need 3 days before an election – “Liberals guarantee $100,000 degrees”
interesting – as the Oz reported last night Leyonhjelm and Day were no longer guaranteeing support
[Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 2m 2 minutes ago
Ok, so the captains calls so far, pls add to the list: PPL, ill-fated Medicare backflip, Knights & Dames, Sir Philip, 18C backflip, more???]
My suspicion is that at this point any cross bench senator that wants to do a deal with Abbott would be afraid of inadvertently getting covered in muck by association no matter what the deal or subject.
trand
Frankly, I don’t trust the ABC headline writers to get it right, so we’ll have to wait.
from today’s Oz:
The government has won praise from Universities Australia and vice-chancellors for being prepared to move on its proposal for a 20 per cent cut to university course funding, worth $2 billion in savings over the forward estimates, in order to allow institutions to set their own fees and win support from other crossbenchers.
But the bargaining position has angered Senator Leyonhjelm, who dubbed it a “half-baked reform’’. “There’s no blank cheque for the government on deregulation if it thinks it’s going to end up costing taxpayers more,” the Liberal Democrat said. “I think Pyne’s taken my vote for granted because of my previous position (but) I’ve changed my position.”
A spokesman for Senator Day from Family First, who backs deregulation, said his support was not guaranteed if the government “substantially modified’’ its reforms. The government is looking for a circuit-breaker on its tertiary package after it was defeated in the Senate last month and remains stalled despite Tony Abbott pledging it would be front and centre of this year’s legislative agenda.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/education/john-dawkins-backs-university-fee-reforms/story-fn59nlz9-1227198906781
also interesting that the uni stuff now has top billing on the website
Since the Coalition is a group of illogical thinkers, there are “unintended consequences” of everything they do.
I find it hard to believe that Muir would backflip on his own, given the other crossbenchers are still (publicly) opposed
morning all
Thanks to BK and others for today’s bumper edition.
Interesting that Shorten is not even in the country whilst the malestrom is happening around Abbott.
Miranda Devine like Hartcher has declared that Credlin needs to go for Abbott to survive
trand
Perhaps his mobile is out of range 😉
ABC radio did report earlier that Muir was open to supporting the uni deregulation changes after speaking with the PM.
Dumping Credlin would mollify the party room, but would the average swing voter even know who she is?
Or is the logic that Abbott buys some time by dumping Credlin and then uses his political skills to win the public back?
RA
Credlin did a first class job of getting Abbott the keys to the lodge. Now that the public have awoken to their stupor about Abbott, it is all her fault. Go figure
[uses his political skills to win the public back?]
Huh?
Even if he offers to sell me his arsk, I’m not buying.
Lizzie, I wasn’t suggesting the logic was strong…
The answer to the question
[
Kieran Gilbert @Kieran_Gilbert · 25 mins 25 minutes ago
PM joint news conference will be with anti-domestic violence campaigner & Australian of the year Rosie Batty 10am
]
https://twitter.com/Kieran_Gilbert
cyril,
Could be an outbreak of humanity.
No one expected that!
Probably announcing a Royal Commission into domestic violence in unions.
Very good to see on last nights 7:30 report a legitimate refugee being settled into PNG Community. He was very happy being settled and wanted to make a go of his new life with the PNG people who are very beautiful people.
Those protesting on Manus are most likely not legitimate and should be sent home as they are wanting an economic… not a refugee solution.
[Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 5m 5 minutes ago
Based on chats with Libs this AM, for the 1st time (& i can’t believe i’m saying this) I now don’t think PM can make it to the next election]
Haven’t the Feds withdrawn funding for safe houses? Will he backflip on this?
confessions
PVO is taking the piss. He personally has been actively working to prepare the ground for Abbott to be dumped prior to the election. Cos one thing PVO understands is that Abbott cannot lead the fibs to victory next time around
victoria:
I’d love to know which Libs he’s been talking to as well.
For the first time (& I can’t believe I’m saying this) PVO might well be right. 😯
[I’d love to know which Libs he’s been talking to as well.]
The least insane ones.
[I find it hard to believe that Muir would backflip on his own, given the other crossbenchers are still (publicly) opposed]
Not really a backflip entirely as Muir supported the original package even in the knowledge it was going down.
From what Muir said later he never supported the package but was voting to continue debate. He has since come out and said he would be unlikely to support it
So what’s the presser about?
So is the special guest in the PMs Presser Effie. Well I’ll be.