BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Public relaxation over summer, the quirks of a shallow pool of poll results, actual improvement in the government’s standing – whatever the cause, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has again recorded movement in favour of the Coalition.

Week two of BludgerTrack for 2015 adds only the latest Essential Research result to last week’s numbers from Essential and Roy Morgan. This is pretty thin gruel so far as poll aggregation goes, but nonetheless, let it be noted that BludgerTrack finds the latest result to be a lot more like the Morgan poll than Essential’s strong result for Labor last week, and thus shifts a little further the Coalition’s way. The 0.4% move on two-party preferred translates into three gains for the Coalition on the seat projection, namely one seat each in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,676 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

  1. As worthy as this domestic violence initiative is I can’t help wondering whether we would be hearing about it today if not for the train wreck that was Abbotts Australia Day.

  2. “@SamDickfos: PM on Prince Philip: I accept that it has been a contentious decision. But Prince Philip has been a distinguished contributor to Australia.”

  3. No, it’s not going to address Dom Viol. It will try to bring penalties and strategies into line in all states.

    IMO This will in turn depend on the attitude of the various police forces who deal with it.

  4. “@latikambourke: PM Abbott ‘I stand by the decision, I understand why some people don’t like it, I take it on the chin, I take it on the chin.’”

  5. Hasn’t Abbott promised more consultation about five times already?

    Latika Bourke @latikambourke · 5 mins 5 minutes ago
    PM Abbott ‘obviously there are some lessons in these things and the lesson that I learn is that there needs to be wider consultation’.

  6. “@rhysam: While Abbott just hid behind the blood of the nation’s battered women and children,all is forgiven if he takes Domestic Violence seriously.”

  7. Michaelia stepped in to fill in the blanks, in that there was already money supposed to help fix the “problem”. In a way, Tony would not have appreciated that, because he was trying to turn a new leaf on it, to distract voters from the distraction of the Knighthood.

    I notice he was shaking his head negatively during a lot of his answers.

  8. [Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 4m 4 minutes ago
    And at his weakest, the PM uses what little political capital he has left to shield his Chief of Staff, refusing to say if he consulted her!]

    So she isn’t going anywhere.

  9. Lizzie and K17, our state libs cut 82 shelters out this year [I posted the list over the road]. It is one of my passionate causes, so my disgust with these hypocrites is off the dial. The business with Barbara still irks me, as I pointed out to friends as we watched the awards on Sunday.

  10. Morning all
    One excerpt from the Australian editorial
    [If there is one good lesson from the internecine horrors of the Rudd-Gillard years, it is that voters reserve to themselves the solemn right to remove a prime minister from power.]
    I think Abbott will be given several more chances, never underestimate how spineless the Lib backbenchers can be…

  11. WB

    [John Quiggin makes a good point about the misused (including by myself) term “hung parliament”, which should properly refer to one that can’t produce a government.]

    My understanding is that where a government is formed through an agreement with supply and confidence between a number of parties, it is a minority parliament.

    If no one party has gained majority after an election, I’d just say that nobody has achieved majority, rather than call it a hung parliament.

    IMO a hung parliament is when it is not workable at all, e.g. if the Victorian Legislative Assembly was to have Labor and Coalition tied at 44 seats each.

  12. Victoria @2485

    Spot on.

    When he was OL everyone raved about what a brilliant job he did as OL, now that he is screwing up the PM’s job, its all her fault.

    Libs always blaming others, even amongst themselves.

  13. Even right wing hack in the West newspaper, Paul Murray, has thrown Abbott under a bus.

    When friends like Murray jump on the Abbott-must-go bandwagon things are very grim indeed.

  14. [ he won’t throw Peta under the bus. He’d much rather go all Adolf and Eva in the bunker. ]

    He will keep damaging the tories because he always comes first.

    When his troops outside the bunker see their jobs at the point of vaporising they will act. The alternative is go over the cliff with abbott.

    Howard refused to step down when tapped. Abbott will be worse IMO.

  15. outside left

    I wasn’t sure how many had been defunded, and didn’t want to exaggerate, but someone has said previosuly (was it you?) that Abbott is treading on shaky ground when he starts to moralise about the treatment of women.

    Wouldn’t it be marvellous to see him defend his Ramjan treatment for an hour and not be allowed to run away (as he has done again today, shutting off questions after promising to tackle “other matters”).

  16. guytaur@2519: I don’t think Peta would go even if Abbott were somehow to be removed: she was CoS for Nelson and Turnbull before him.

    Peta is relatively an innocent bystander in all of this: she is basically a spin doctor who doesn’t exercise any control whatsoever over policy. She seems to have become a target recently because nobody in Liberal ranks wants to directly target the person with whom they have the real problem.

  17. In polities that use a variant of proportional representation or mixed member proportional, what we call a ‘hung parliament’ is situation normal. This includes most European countries and NZ.

  18. [I assume “karma” means a belief in an innate law of “justice” in the universe!!!!]

    Karma is a word with a whole lot of cultural associations that basically means the consequences of your actions, especially the unforeseen and long term ones.

    For example the bad karma associated with the Abbott government will be a more dangerous climate than if we’d continued to prioritise climate change as important. It will include more family disputes, violence and alcohol/drug abuse in communities that have lost manufacturing industries to support them, and in indigenous communities that are removed from homelands. They will include the radicalisation and mental illness and everything else that is a consequence of the way we treat asylum seekers.

    There are specific potentially religious associations for Hindus and to a point Buddhists – tho technically some Buddhism isn’t a religion – but the idea of universal justice and punishment for crimes committed isn’t karma. Thats called Instant Karma and was invented by John Lennon. It has more in common with Christianity and the idea of a punishing father god than the original concept.

    You can’t predict karma unless you think about things very carefully. Even the consequences of “good” actions might bite you, your descendants or other people in 100 years time.

    Its actually a very interesting way to frame your decisions and politics would be a lot better if politicians understood it.

  19. If I remember, in September 2007 John Howard actually did seek advice from close colleages regarding whether he should stand down for the good of the party. They advised against it.

  20. [
    I don’t think Peta would go even if Abbott were somehow to be removed: she was CoS for Nelson and Turnbull before him.
    ]

    Turnbull demoted her to deputy chief and replaced her with Chris Kenny. She was then resurrected by Abbott.

  21. [Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 1h 1 hour ago
    Jeff Kennett on Tony Abbott damaging state colleagues facing elections: “He talks about Team Australia, what about Team Liberal?“ ]

    Dear, sweet, naive Jeff of the Kennets, haven’t you realised yet there is only one team in Tony’s life – Team Tony?

  22. [The media are, collectively, a well-resourced and trained propaganda operation for the few at the top. Unfortunately, most people don’t seem to realize this, and actually trust the propagandists.]

    Matt @ 2381 – this is potentially the first time in modern history where the media monopoly on information is being broken a bit. So the power of media propaganda is diluted a little bit. The fact that someone who comments on a blog and twitter can have an exchange with Murdoch and have it reported in the media shows how much things have changed this century.

  23. sprocket

    A portend of Abbott’s body language?

    @lipporocks: Asst Def Min Stuart Robert says this front page “unhelpful” and “somewhat disrespectful” http://t.co/u4Hk7KB3JR

    You don’t hear it when it was Rudd or Gillard on the front page portrayed in a similar manner.

  24. Making sure polls are lower?

    “@political_alert: Education Minister Christopher Pyne will hold a doorstop interview regarding the government’s higher education reforms at 12.30pm #auspol”

  25. [@lipporocks: Asst Def Min Stuart Robert says this front page “unhelpful” and “somewhat disrespectful”]

    Disrespectful to whom? Professional jesters?

  26. [ meher baba
    Posted Wednesday, January 28, 2015 at 10:57 am | Permalink

    Peta is relatively an innocent bystander in all of this: she is basically a spin doctor who doesn’t exercise any control whatsoever over policy. ]

    Comedy Gold!

    Not hard to find stuff coming from tory caucus members who have said the opposite for sometime –

    [ Senator Ian Macdonald’s public accusation that Mr Abbott’s office, led by senior aide Peta Credlin, has instilled a culture of “obsessive centralised control” in the government has struck a chord among sections of the Coalition.

    The strict media control of ministers by the Prime Minister’s office has been reported but a bigger irritant for Coalition members and staffers has been a tight grip on appointments by Ms Credlin and the so-called “star chamber” staff appointments panel she heads.

    A Coalition member told Fairfax Media: “The level of control is far in excess of the Howard government at its peak. It’s Peta Credlin who is the problem, she’s a control freak and this is feeding into all sorts of things.”

    The selection of government members for committees is now being done from “on high”, whereas in the past, MPs and senators had been given a level of freedom to sort out appointments among themselves. ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/control-freak-peta-credlin–accused-of-pulling-coalition-strings-20131204-2yqte.html

  27. If this is true, and he is found guilty, then how sweet a beating from the karma stick it would be.

    [Stop The Murdoch • 2 days ago

    As Butler mentions, under section 46 Abbott owes, to anyone who sues, money for time he spent in parliament from 1994 onward…. that’s tens of thousands of dollars each. Class action now! ]

    Taken from the comments on this article:

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/terri-butler-mp-asks-pm-abbott-to-prove-he-is-not-a-british-citizen,7299?cachebreak=1

  28. [rossmcg

    Posted Wednesday, January 28, 2015 at 10:51 am | Permalink

    J341983

    Interesting analogy. I reckon the people who do those Hitler Downfall videos could have a field day with the knighthood.
    ]

    One problem using the Hitler video for Abbott is, in them, Hitler consults those around him and gets advice.

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