BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Public relaxation over summer, the quirks of a shallow pool of poll results, actual improvement in the government’s standing – whatever the cause, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has again recorded movement in favour of the Coalition.

Week two of BludgerTrack for 2015 adds only the latest Essential Research result to last week’s numbers from Essential and Roy Morgan. This is pretty thin gruel so far as poll aggregation goes, but nonetheless, let it be noted that BludgerTrack finds the latest result to be a lot more like the Morgan poll than Essential’s strong result for Labor last week, and thus shifts a little further the Coalition’s way. The 0.4% move on two-party preferred translates into three gains for the Coalition on the seat projection, namely one seat each in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,676 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

  1. dave

    Stuart Broad emulating the US multi-billionaire at Davos recently. He said in the US people have too high expectations for their standard of living and they need to lower them.

  2. guytaur

    If Chrissie Pyne is, in private social situations, a charming, funny fellow, why the hell doesn’t he show it in public, or in QT? Could it be that he has absorbed the lessons from the Abbott, the “most successful OL”, and tries to emulate that nastiness?

  3. [Steve777

    Posted Wednesday, January 28, 2015 at 10:58 am | Permalink

    In polities that use a variant of proportional representation or mixed member proportional, what we call a ‘hung parliament’ is situation normal. This includes most European countries and NZ.
    ]

  4. dave@2545

    I can’t see that your post disproves my propositions that Peta controls spin and has no influence over policy decisions, and that she is not personally responsible for the centralised control of policy-making.

    You don’t have to take everything that is said in the newspapers seriously, particularly quotes from anonymous “political sources”. Do you remember the endless reports – week after week – quoting anonymous sources stating that Rudd almost had the numbers to oust Gillard?

    One possible explanation of what is going on is that it has been the PM, rather than Credlin, who is responsible for most of the centralised control and lack of consultation. My impression, formed long before he became party leader, has been that Abbott has always had an inclination to make it up as he goes along. That sort of person doesn’t tend to be very good at making people feel like they have been consulted.

  5. http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jan/28/coalition-mps-trail-in-eight-out-of-11-marginals-as-budget-issues-bite-poll-says
    [Coalition MPs trail in eight out of 11 marginals as budget issues bite, poll says
    Swing voters angry at Medicare copayment and university fees
    ReachTEL survey will increase unease among backbenchers
    Gabrielle Chan
    Wednesday 28 January 2015 07.02 AEST

    Coalition MPs are trailing in eight of 11 marginal seats held by the government, new polling shows, with swing voters turned off by the government’s two key budget policies of a Medicare co-payment and university fees.

    The ReachTEL polling was conducted in January for the activist group Getup. It shows significant numbers of undecided voters in 11 marginal seats with strong resistance to two issues: the Medicare co-payment and university deregulation, both of which have yet to pass the Senate.

    The polling was conducted on 21 January, after the government backed down on planned cuts to Medicare rebates for GP consultations shorter than 10 minutes but before the controversial decision by Tony Abbott to award Prince Philip a knighthood.

    The Coalition still plans to go ahead with what has been widely known as a Medicare co-payment which effectively cuts the doctors’ rebate by $5 for adult non-concession patients. GPs are likely to pass on the cost.

    The poll results will increase the pressure on nervous backbenchers in the government party room just as the prime minister is set to deliver an important address to the National Press Club next week to reboot the government’s agenda.

    The poll surveyed 7,368 people, including 742 undecided voters, in the seats of Barton, Eden-Monaro, Dobell, Reid and Banks in NSW, Petrie and Capricornia in Queensland, Lyons in Tasmania, Solomon in the Northern Territory, Hindmarsh in South Australia and Deakin in Victoria.

    In the bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro in southern NSW held by Liberal MP Peter Hendy, the Coalition is trailing Labor on a two-party-preferred basis by 38.8% to 47.7%, with 13.5% undecided.

    Among those undecided voters in Eden-Monaro, 66.7% strongly oppose or oppose the government’s plan to introduce a Medicare co-payment. Of those undecided voters, 53.8% said the co-payment would make them less likely to vote for the Coalition at the next election.]
    More details in below link, including further links to PDFs etc.
    https://www.getup.org.au/about/media-room

  6. Lizzie

    I am sure the tory view of funny is quite different to the majority of PBers view of funny.

    That is a major part of the Tory problem. They live in a bubble and only ever meet like minded people.

  7. [One problem using the Hitler video for Abbott is, in them, Hitler consults those around him and gets advice.]

    Then someone should do one of Hitler from the pov of Murdoch spewing about knighthoods and Abbott’s incompetence in general.

  8. rossmcg

    I rarely discuss politics with my friends, but the bumblefooted Abbott seems to have loosened many tongues. To my faint surprise, I find now that most of my friends are Labor supporters.

    So maybe we all flock together, too 🙂

  9. Abbott has always insulted, heckeled and trashed anything he comes into contact with, right throughout his life.

    Now he has a country to rip apart, and the most power he’s ever had, why discontinue the habits of a lifetime?

    It was always predicted he’d go feral once he became PM. Even News Corp can’t control him anymore.

    Abbott is used to wrecking and moving on, leaving others to clean up his mess after him. All Australia is now his target.

  10. guytaur@2561: So the US citizen Murdoch wants Ms Credlin to do her “patriotic duty” and resign? Hmmmm….

    Trying to blame Peta for everything that is wrong at the moment looks more than a little bit desperate to me. She’s ultimately just the hired help. Nobody can point to anything that’s she done that would warrant her dismissal or resignation.

    Does anyone seriously suggest that she had anything to do with the knightmare? Or that she was even consulted?

  11. [Does anyone seriously suggest that she had anything to do with the knightmare? Or that she was even consulted?]

    And what happens when they get rid of the scapegoat (Peta, Tony, or whoever) and things don’t get better?

  12. “@JacobLeigh: Is it maybe just a weird hangover from Julia Gillard where we’ve been conditioned to just blame any woman who wields any sort of control.

    MB

    I agree it stinks of desperation. Especially as confirmed by Abbott he did not consult Credlin on knighthood.

  13. [jules

    Posted Wednesday, January 28, 2015 at 11:51 am | Permalink

    One problem using the Hitler video for Abbott is, in them, Hitler consults those around him and gets advice.

    Then someone should do one of Hitler from the pov of Murdoch spewing about knighthoods and Abbott’s incompetence in general.
    ]

    🙂 nice idea, if only I knew how.

    You could have selected cabinet members in the room with him.

  14. BB

    Elder’s latest intimates that Abbott gave the gong to Prince Philip to first and foremost off the “left”.
    Funny that it was actually his own side and the commentariat that have screamed the loudest

  15. so instead of gaining support for the uni changes by dropping the cut, they’ve managed to lose it?

    You couldn’t write better satire

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jan/28/tony-abbott-faces-down-leadership-criticism-discontent

    The knighthood debacle has added to Abbott’s difficulties just as the Senate looks set to block his budget measures. Overnight the government was wedged between losing the support of senators David Leyonhjelm and Bob Day – who are in favour of university deregulation – in order to gain the support of their fellow crossbencher Ricky Muir, Nick Xenophon or the Palmer United senators.

    As it became clear that the government had the support only of Leyonhjelm and Day, the Coalition was reportedly prepared to substantially scale back, or scrap entirely, the 20% average cut to undergraduate course subsidies, but would insist on removing caps on the fees universities could charge students.

    On Wednesday, the Liberal Democrat Leyonhjelm threatened to withdraw his support for higher education deregulation if the measure was watered down according to the demands of other crossbenchers.

    “It appears to me that where we are heading is deregulation of university fees but no savings to the taxpayers, in fact quite possibly, the opposite,” Leyonhjelm said.

    “It could end up costing taxpayers more. That is directly contrary to what I think is the outcome.”

  16. Sauron has instructed his Australian vassal via Twitter to sack his head of staff:

    [“Abbott again. Tough to write, but if he won’t replace top aide Peta Credlin she must do her patriotic duty and resign.”

    “Forget fairness. This change only way to recover team work and achieve so much possible for Australia. Leading involves cruel choices.”
    ]

    The opening of the latter (second) tweet could be adopted as the LNP’s mission statement.

  17. victoria

    From Elder’s article 🙂 ………….cringe
    [……married the then Princess Elizabeth in 1947 the State of Queensland presented 500 cans of pineapple to the happy couple]

  18. I am pretty angry that Abbott has used abused women as cover for his Prince Philip knighthood debacle. He is going to put it on COAG and give out a palty amount to make up for a bit of the funds cut to family protection and Domestic Violence services (including shutting wormen’s shelters) by his state Lib mates.

    Fuck Off, Abbott, you who punched a wall be a woman’s head ,not once but twice, punch, wham one by each ear.

    You are a low down woman-hating misogynist thug who served as a role model to violent men all across the country by your political violence towards Julia Gillard. But you messed up big time there, didn’t you, you gutless coward? PMJG kicked you in the balls, in Parliament house, in front of all the nation, and all the world.

    I know who has done more for addressing violence towards women, and it is not a stinking fetid smear of goat shit that fouls our national character with behaviour that would not be tolerated in a diseased cockroach, currently calling himself a Prime Minister.

  19. TPOF – Or, I think more likely, blame everything bad on Abbott before dumping him overboard. Then they can claim the replacement is a cleanskin who will rescue us all.

  20. [Steve777

    Posted Wednesday, January 28, 2015 at 12:13 pm | Permalink

    Sauron has instructed his Australian vassal via Twitter to sack his head of staff:

    “Abbott again. Tough to write, but if he won’t replace top aide Peta Credlin she must do her patriotic duty and resign.”

    “Forget fairness. This change only way to recover team work and achieve so much possible for Australia. Leading involves cruel choices.”

    The opening of the latter (second) tweet could be adopted as the LNP’s mission statement.

    ]

    But if he gets rid of Credlin now it will add weight to the idea that they are beholden Sauron’s wishes. (Private audiences, newspaper coverage …)

    Which way will they go? F###ing hilarious.

  21. I don’t know why anyone would want to blame Credlin for the performance of this cretin.

    It has always appeared to me that she was in effect ‘Abbotts brain’ who kept him on the leash as best she could and stopped him from coming up with even more stupidity.

    Oh… I also thought she had the job of inserting the ‘suppository of wisdom’ for him each day.

  22. [ meher baba
    Posted Wednesday, January 28, 2015 at 11:38 am | Permalink

    dave@2545

    I can’t see that your post disproves my propositions ]

    Thats a combination of poor comprehension on your behalf and refusal to accept what tories are saying themselves – and now, one of their chief barracker’s, murdoch is calling for her head.

  23. Funny how the Tory commentariat has come around to the view that Abbott is a dill

    As Tricot mentioned even The West Australian’s Paul Murray says he is finished.

    But Murray says that until the knighthood was announced he thought Abbott could turn it around, if of course he followed Murrays advice.

    There are none so blind as those who could not see long before Australia Day that Abbott was not a fit person to be prime minister.

  24. K17

    Don’t know if that will work, but scrambling desperately for post-hoc damage control is pretty much all they are left to work with.

    He is clearly not a sustainable proposition for them or the country. (Not that he ever was, but even the most rusted on Libs can’t kid themselves any longer.)

    Even the worst case cost of removing him is rapidly becoming trivial compared to the price of leaving him there.

  25. [ “Abbott again. Tough to write, but if he won’t replace top aide Peta Credlin she must do her patriotic duty and resign.”

    “Forget fairness. This change only way to recover team work and achieve so much possible for Australia. Leading involves cruel choices.” ]

    If abbott sacks credlin or she resigns, murdoch seen as the puppetmaster, yet again.

    If he refuses,he incurs the roth of his caucus and newscrap.

    Delicious.

  26. Just Me – All I know is that if this mob goes for Julie Bishop, they are totally delusional – but that looks like what they’re going to do.

  27. dave@2592: Yep, I definitely have difficulties in accepting what Rupert Murdoch, Senator Macdonald and some anonymous Liberals are saying.

    Are you telling me that they are highly credible sources?

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