BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Public relaxation over summer, the quirks of a shallow pool of poll results, actual improvement in the government’s standing – whatever the cause, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has again recorded movement in favour of the Coalition.

Week two of BludgerTrack for 2015 adds only the latest Essential Research result to last week’s numbers from Essential and Roy Morgan. This is pretty thin gruel so far as poll aggregation goes, but nonetheless, let it be noted that BludgerTrack finds the latest result to be a lot more like the Morgan poll than Essential’s strong result for Labor last week, and thus shifts a little further the Coalition’s way. The 0.4% move on two-party preferred translates into three gains for the Coalition on the seat projection, namely one seat each in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,676 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

  1. [ meher baba
    Posted Wednesday, January 28, 2015 at 12:46 pm | Permalink

    dave@2592: Yep, I definitely have difficulties in accepting what Rupert Murdoch, Senator Macdonald and some anonymous Liberals are saying.

    Are you telling me that they are highly credible sources? ]

    I’m saying they have gone on the record say the opposite of what you say.

    Google Peta Credlin and control – heaps of references and notconfined to the above people.

  2. From Leroy’s link @2564

    The ReachTEL two-party preferred results for the 11 marginal seats, once undecided voters are removed, work out like this (swing to ALP in brackets):

    Banks: ALP 49.0% (+0.8%)
    Barton: ALP 54.4% (+4.7%)
    Capricornia: ALP 54.2% (+5.0%)
    Deakin: ALP 50.8% (+4.1%)
    Dobell: ALP 54.5% (+5.2%)
    Eden-Monaro: ALP 55.1% (+5.7%)
    Hindmarsh: ALP 48.9% (+0.8%)
    Lyons: ALP 52.3% (+3.5%)
    Petrie: ALP 53.6% (+4.1%)
    Reid: ALP 48.3% (-0.9%)
    Solomon: ALP 51.6% (+3.0%)

    Overall: ALP +3.3%
    Implied national ALP two-party preferred: 49.8, or ~51.3 taking into account the sophomore surge.

    On the face of it, this looks like a fairly weak result for the ALP compared to national polling, however in should be noted last election ReachTEL underestimated ALP TPP vote by 7.4% on average in Sydney electorates, and 2.3% in Victorian electorates. Whether the causes of that bias are still in effect is anyone’s guess.

    Looking at the details, there seems to be a strange anomaly for the seats where ALP is not picking up much of a swing (i.e. Banks, Reid, Hindmarsh) as well as in Barton – the ALP vote in the 18-34 is far too low, suggesting a problem in the methodology for those seats. In all the other seats this age demographic is the strongest for the ALP, as one would expect.

  3. BK

    I don’t get blaming Crediin for Philgate either but I guess it is guilt by association.

    If she is the brains in the PMO she should have stopped him.

    He maybe made the decision but other people had to know once it was made, unless he wrote the letter to the queen himself!

  4. K17: “All I know is that if this mob goes for Julie Bishop, they are totally delusional – but that looks like what they’re going to do.”

    It would not seem to me to be a delusional move at all. If they want to replace Abbott, they will need to find a leadership team that 1) has the support of the parliamentary party, 2) will not be complete anathema to committed Liberal party members and supporters and 3) will attract uncommitted voters.

    Malcolm Turnbull is far and away the leading candidate in terms of 3), but weak in terms of 1) and 2). Hockey and Pyne are seriously problematic in terms of 3), and Morrison (although he probably scores very highly under 1) and 2)) would also have some work to do there. (Hockey once upon a time seems to have been reasonably popular with the public at large, but times have changed.)

    Bishop is a vanilla candidate in terms of all three categories. However, if she has Turnbull as Deputy and Treasurer, she will be able to harness some of his strong appeal to uncommitted voters, while being able to smooth relations with the parliamentarians and the support base who don’t entirely trust Turnbull.

    So I reckon a Bishop/Turnbull leadership ticket would be the go if the need were to eventuate.

  5. meher baba

    Although I agree with you in one way, the optics of an unelected woman taking power from the elected man are just so similar to the Gillard/Rudd fiasco that I think she’ll be stymied from the start.

    She’ll be evermore compared to Gillard if it plays out that way.

  6. [ meher baba
    Posted Wednesday, January 28, 2015 at 12:58 pm | Permalink

    Bishop is a vanilla candidate in terms of all three categories. However, if she has Turnbull as Deputy and Treasurer, she will be able to harness some of his strong appeal to uncommitted voters, while being able to smooth relations with the parliamentarians and the support base who don’t entirely trust Turnbull. ]

    Yeah, right, make Turnbull No2 (really No3 after the Nats leader) and he will give his wholehearted ongoing support to the detriment of his own ambitions.

    Recall the ‘treatment’ he dished out to Brendan Nelson?

    It would give turnbull an incentive to help mesma to look more hopeless then she already is. turnbull is past master at that.

    All of this with a bitter and twisted abbott on the loose.

    Abbott would fight his removal and seek revenge by any means.

  7. [Coalition MPs trail in eight out of 11 marginals as budget issues bite, poll says]

    I’m a bit surprised that even three of those marginals would still be won by the Libs. With the state of the polls currently showing – according to Bludgertrack – a loss of about 25 seats one would expect the marginals to be the first to go.

    Good to see that the Bellweather seat of Eden Monaro is looking like a gimme for Labor though.

  8. The Coalition is now reduced to an ABA (Anyone But Abbott) strategy.

    In a sense, they will be doing to themselves what they convinced the Australian swinging vote to do in 2013 – put in as PM somebody who is untried as a political and national leader (apart from Turnbull) in the hope that the new person will be better than the old one. And we know how that turned out.

    What do we know about the national leadership skills of Bishop and Morrison and Pyne?

    Turnbull has had one go and did not cover himself with glory.

    Julie Bishop’s achievements so far have been to clean up after Tony’s brain farts (no mean feat) and avoid making any of her own in the screwball world of international diplomacy.

    Hockey has been tested in the Treasurer’s role and found terribly wanting – he has achieved brain farts on the things that really do matter, such as the cost of transport and health care, whereas Abbott has scored mainly in the areas of symbolism.

    Whoever gets the job from Abbott will be getting a Hail Mary pass from their party, with no evidence that their hands are not coated in slime.

    And by the way, I largely agree with MB’s assessment of the role of Peta Credlin, but would disagree that she does not deserve to be made a scapegoat. Credlin’s number one job is to manage Abbott and save the party from his appalling judgment. She did that with a fair amount of skill in the time he was leader of the Opposition (aided by the most abject group failure of political journalism in the history of the country). In Government though, she has not been able to keep him managed. Whether she agreed with the Phil thing or simply failed to get him to run it by her, she appears to have outlived her usefulness to the machine. Hence, the Murdoch push to dump her – and, of course, forcing Abbott to do so would be the equivalent of the huge slap to the face in a last ditch attempt to bring him to his senses.

  9. [K17

    Just Me – All I know is that if this mob goes for Julie Bishop, they are totally delusional – but that looks like what they’re going to do.]

    They have to ditch Abbott, but all the possible alternatives are highly problematic, to put it mildly.

    Oh dear. How sad. Never mind.

    🙂

  10. J

    Never underestimate the power of ambition and self belief.

    Just like the footy coach who takes over the basket case club when everybody with any brains is running away, there would be any number of Tories with egos big enough to believe they can turn it all around.

    And just imagine the adulation if they succeed …

  11. [ Darn
    Posted Wednesday, January 28, 2015 at 1:14 pm | Permalink

    I’m a bit surprised that even three of those marginals would still be won by the Libs. ]

    After the 2013 election, William posted a list of seats the tories won narrowly –

    [William Bowe
    Posted Sunday, November 3, 2013 at 7:45 pm | Permalink

    The 15 {14 listed actually} most marginal Coalition-held sets and the winning margins are as follows:
    Barton 489
    Petrie 871
    Eden-Monaro 1,085
    Dobell 1,166
    Capricornia 1,305
    Reid 1,460
    Solomon 1,500
    Lyons 1,631
    Banks 3,105
    Braddon 3,380
    Hindmarsh 3,573
    Page 4,333
    Gilmore 4,807
    Lindsay 5,234

    Add all those margins together and you’ve got 33,939.

    If exactly that number of the right people in the right places had changed their votes, the results in each of those seats would have been tied.

    Add another 15 to get 33,954, and you’ve got Labor winning each seat by a single vote and the Coalition losing its majority. ]

    He then added –

    [ William Bowe
    Posted Sunday, November 3, 2013 at 7:47 pm | Permalink

    Actually, you can halve those numbers, because if we’re talking about people changing their votes, each vote lost by one side is a vote gained by the other. ]

    As we all know – abbott’s standing and polling have only got far worse since late 2013

  12. [ he’s in touch with the world, has the right ideas, shares Abbott’s broad world view without the kinky bits. ]

    Devine reckons Kenny for new Cos to Abbott??

    All i can say to that is…Woof Woof.

  13. Solomon: ALP 51.6% (+3.0%)

    I’m gutted, truly gutted I tell you, that Natasha Griggs might lose her seat…

    Nah.

    😛

    ——————

    [Using the word “sustainable” in regards to Tones is a fun thing.]

    Who needs professional satirists when you have Tony Abbotts in the world dropping comedy gold bricks left, right, and centre?

  14. [I don’t get blaming Crediin for Philgate either but I guess it is guilt by association.]

    Abbott is supposed to be intensely loyal, but that’s just a myth. He’ll get rid of Credlin, like he’s discarded nearly everything else in his sorry life, just as soon as he convinces himself that he can live without her.

    At the moment he probably thinks he’d be lost without his rock, and ditching her might also cause some problems with her hubby, Brian, who must be appalled at what Abbott is doing to the party’s electoral prospects.

    All in all a situation that, like a boil, will have to fester-up a lot more, and become more painful, until the inevitable lancing is possible.

    If Credlin resigns for the “good of the nation”, as Murdoch has advised, then all hell will break loose.

    I must admit to wondering what Mark Simkin must be thinking. The dapper, smooth-talking little guy gave up a sinecure in a nice cosy corner of the ABC to enter a raving madhouse.

    Simkin must realize by now that Abbott’s arse is unsalvageable. How many times has he promised to “consult”, only to break that promise the next day or the next week with an even more outrageous brainfart idea?

    Mr Clean Cut Reporter may be a lot of unpleasant things, but he is not stupid, not an ideologue, and certainly not an anarchist. Simkin must be hoping that whoever takes over from Abbott sees some use for him as one of the resident hangers-on, or else he’ll be out spruiking miracle cures, or writing travel brochures for a cruise company before you can say Axe-The-Tax.

  15. ross @ 2627

    [Just like the footy coach who takes over the basket case club when everybody with any brains is running away]

    Incredible how many would want the job just to say ‘I’ve been PM’, even if it earns them the award of the worst PM ever. It’s a bit like the story (possibly mythical) of Indians who used to go around with post-nominals like BA (Calcutta) failed, because at least it showed they had made it to university.

    That said, most of those coaches or managers fail too because the problems are far more deep-seated than a poor coach. The ones who take the team from nowhere to magic in a season are outliers – that is why they make movies about them.

  16. rossmcg

    [there would be any number of Tories with egos big enough to believe they can turn it all around.]

    And that it seems to me is the Libs biggest problem.

    They think they are the natural Government and they will do anything to stay there.

    The problem is that their egos are part of the problem along with their born to rule attitudes which do not play well with the ordinary people who live their lives and pay they bills and only hear mainly what they see and hear on their radio and television sets.

    They don’t like being taken for granted and generally can’t stand wankers.

  17. [ Devine reckons Kenny for new Cos to Abbott?? ]

    File that under, “She would say that, wouldn’t she”

    One newcrap stooge, recommending another newcrap stooge assume a very senior role in the National Government.

  18. I should add, in regard to my post at 2634, that these coaches are usually offered the job (after the previous incumbent is sacked) by club administrations that cannot face the reality that they are the root of the problem – the existence of the bad coach who must be sacked is a deflection.

  19. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/front-national-family-feud-marine-le-pen-and-her-relatives-clash-over-french-farright-partys-response-to-paris-terror-attacks-10006562.html

    [Mr Chauprade, head of the FN group in the European parliament, directly challenged this cautious approach. He posted a video online which claimed that up to 1,000,000 French Muslims represented a “fifth column” of “potential terrorists”. He said that France was “at war with Muslims, possibly not with all Muslims, but with Muslims”.]

    I don’t get these people. First they say these immigrants are lazy and on welfare, next they’re saying they’re probably organised and motivated enough to organise terrorist activities.

  20. [One newcrap stooge, recommending another newcrap stooge assume a very senior role in the National Government.]

    Which, to his credit, he has already ruled out.

  21. Dio

    [Credlin isn’t the problem, Abbott is the problem. It’s not like she held a gun to his head and ordered him to make Philip a knight.]

    Agree!

  22. [Essential..

    Owch! 🙂 ]

    With triple nipple cripple.

    If you have lost Essential, there is little hope left for you from the polls.

    FWIW, I agree with meher baba that a Bishop/Turnbull ticket is the least worst option the Libs have, but that ain’t saying much, especially if it makes no real difference to their policy suite – I suspect the voters are now well and truly primed to see past that pea-and-thimble trick, and forgive it not a jot.

  23. cud chewer@2620

    Why does everyone say that of JBishop? Not that I dont want to believe it but, evidence?

    I say it through instinct mainly. Do you recall her ever landing a blow on her own? Do you have an idea of who she is and what she believes? Seen any passion? Ambition? Me neither.

    A loyal servant who dances to the tune of the day. That’s why she can serve 3 different leaders without threat or fuss… takes her orders and goes with whatever it is.

    Remember her much awaited legal attack on JG over the slush fund where under prolonged questioning she performed very poorly even though she had the floor and it was all about her?

    Nope, nothing to see here. A non-event.

  24. To continue the sporting analogy, in many football clubs there are what they call “power brokers” people who hold no elected or paid position in the organisation but by virtue of sponsorship and other influences have a huge say in outcomes.

    In the Tories case, the power brokers, led by Murdoch and including the likes of the IPA and the BCA have decided that Abbott is a risk but they may give him a second chance and have decided to undermine his assistant.

    They are testing his loyalty … To Credlin and them.

  25. [Incredible how many would want the job just to say ‘I’ve been PM’,]

    I am sure that the accompanying swag of guaranteed and very generous lifetime pension benefits figures into such noble self-sacrifice.

  26. [
    Rupert Murdoch ✔ @rupertmurdoch
    Follow

    Credlin a good person. Just appealing to her proven patriotism.
    ]
    I think Murdoch has been in the US too long; probable has watched too much fox news.

  27. [ Bishop is a vanilla candidate in terms of all three categories. However, if she has Turnbull as Deputy and Treasurer, she will be able to harness some of his strong appeal to uncommitted voters, while being able to smooth relations with the parliamentarians and the support base who don’t entirely trust Turnbull. ]

    Agree with mb on the above, but i wouldn’t write off Morrison. Going to a Bishop / Turnbull ticket will help them in the medium term, if for no other reson than sheer relief at Abbott’s departure but they are still up against it in terms of policies people hate (medicare, Workchoices 2.0, Uni funding….).

    Would Bishop even want to take over until after Budget time which is when they will HAVE to have thrashed out a new policy direction if any?? There may just not be any value to the Libs in doing a leadership change before then. Leave a crippled Abbott in place to wear the fallout from Qld and any losses in NSW, and fly some kites at Budget time. Then take stock and actually, really, “reset” with a whole new front bench after that.

  28. [That seems to be the consensus of the commentariat. Bishop/Turnbull ticket. Will be too funny if it turns out to be Morrison/Hockey]

    I’m fairly confident in Bishop v Morrison for the leadership contest in the event the bus is driven over Abbott.

    I wouldn’t rate Turnbull as a gimme for Bishop’s deputy, but it would certainly be the best change/electoral appeal option.

    Somewhere up there {points} I suggested the criteria for a Morrison deputy: non-NSW, non-crazy, non-Bishop. Unless you think that any of Ciobo, Dwyer, Frydenberg, Hunt, Keenan, Robb are goers then Pyne seems the obvious choice.

  29. imacca @ 2648

    [but i wouldn’t write off Morrison.]

    And therein lies the problem for the Libs. It doesn’t matter who they choose, everyone else in the field is still a contender and will do their best to get the fight re-run on their terms. Abbott had the same problem as the new LOTO, until it turned out that the only real skill he had, the bully brawler, hit the mark on Rudd and then he kept the ascendency in the polls (but never personally) over Gillard. The Liberals all thought he was a political genius and any who did not were only going to be labelled as Cassandras. Even worse, they would be labelled as unLiberal and poor team players.

    So, if Abbott goes, unless his successor can turn the polls upside down (literally) and keep them that way they are going to be white-anted. I think only Turnbull is capable of delivering on that score. But Turnbull, more than any, will unleash those in his party who would rather be impotent than lose their purity.

    Against this background, Shorten will bide his time. He is deliberately not piling into the free-for-all. He is trying very hard not to look like Abbott did in Opposition – as if to send the message that he will not be like Abbott if he becomes PM. Indeed, the last thing a good warrior should do is to remind their opponents that they have a common enemy when they are so busy destroying their own firepower by fighting among themselves.

    Interesting times ahead.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *